Unlucky? It would appear not

[hackneyfox]

There's a worse keeper than Schmeichel in the division?

Surprising, who is it Schwarzer?

Three burnley players in the top 10 for distance covered, shows why they've given a better than expected account of themselves. I'm sure Nugent would be in there if he hadn't been a bit part player this season, but for a struggling side with a quality deficit - workrate is key. They also have 1st, 2nd & 3rd highest sprints per game

Strangely people think Scmeichel will leave should we go down, wondering who in the PL would buy him.

Stranger yet, people think he would be the best in the Championship and want to keep him should we go down.

If we can get anything for him I'd be happy to see the back of him.

[EnglishOxide]

A small part is luck. Mostly it's down to bad management and playing.

I'm not going to pick through your responses to my post because you messed up the quoting. Well done. But why are you blaming players like Cambiasso, Schluup and Nuge missing open goals on management?

That's not bad management its bad fortune or a lack of quality. In that case are you saying we should have bought a new squad at the start of the season? (on bigger wages and all the disharmony and uncertainty that comes with it).

Sometimes you have got to accept that it happens in football rather than try to pin the blame on someone.

If you balanced out all the so called lucky calls, and not get silly by saying burnly beating man c was down to our bad luck, we'd still be bottom.

Well done for spectacularly missing my point.

Scoring three at whl and coming away with nothing is criminal. That's not luck. It's poor defending. Pearson should have gone at Christmas.

I must have imagined the dodgy penalty and two UNLUCKY own goals then. In any case. You realise Spurs are a pretty good side who are usually rooted in the top 6 yeah? Of course they are very likely to score against us.

[shailen]

Let's be real. Our strikers don't have that golden touch that other teams have. All the teams in this league have a striker that is capable of 15+ goals a season. We don't. The number of chances we have missed considering we only shoot in good positions is shocking this season. Cambiasso against Swansea and Liverpool, Morgan against Spurs, Ulloa against Arsenal, Nuge/Cambi against Palace. There are probably more, and that is what has cost us. Coupled with some awful decisions, but it's mainly been our finishing. If someone could make a highlight reel of the seasons misses I think it would explain all

[Col city fan]

Another thread that shows just how bad we have been. (If it was needed).

I don't buy the strikers thing personally. I've always thought we probably have strikers who are 'good enough'. None of them exceptional, that I fully agree with. But for me, the issue has all season been primarily one of supply.

Again, I think our midfield has been very very weak this season. We cannot keep the ball, we cannot create enough good chances and we cannot shield the defence sufficiently.

The past few games in particular, Mahrez has been pants, James completely ineffectual and Cambiasso trying 30/40 yard passes that have been miles off.

We have just been a weak outfit and despite Pearson's tinkering, we've not got any better.

Amazingly, we still have a very very outside chance. But if Pearson sticks with what he's done most of the season, it's over.

[fleckneymike]

Let's be real. Our strikers don't have that golden touch that other teams have. All the teams in this league have a striker that is capable of 15+ goals a season. We don't. The number of chances we have missed considering we only shoot in good positions is shocking this season. Cambiasso against Swansea and Liverpool, Morgan against Spurs, Ulloa against Arsenal, Nuge/Cambi against Palace. There are probably more, and that is what has cost us. Coupled with some awful decisions, but it's mainly been our finishing. If someone could make a highlight reel of the seasons misses I think it would explain all

 

A 15 goal a season striker is a very rare thing at this level. Invariably the come from sides in the top 6.

[Fox Ulike]

Let's be real. Our strikers don't have that golden touch that other teams have. All the teams in this league have a striker that is capable of 15+ goals a season. We don't. The number of chances we have missed considering we only shoot in good positions is shocking this season. Cambiasso against Swansea and Liverpool, Morgan against Spurs, Ulloa against Arsenal, Nuge/Cambi against Palace. There are probably more, and that is what has cost us. Coupled with some awful decisions, but it's mainly been our finishing. If someone could make a highlight reel of the seasons misses I think it would explain all

 

That’s just not the case.  You have a very selective memory.  We actually put away a high proportion of our shots.

 

When you have as few chances as we have, those that are missed become very memorable. But other teams miss chances in the same way that we do, it’s just that most other teams CREATE enough chances to make those misses quickly forgotten.

 

You mention Ulloa’s miss against Arsenal but I remember Jack Wilshire heading tamely into Kasper’s hands from 3 yards out. A much worse miss.

 

Lukaku missed a hat-trick of sitters in the Everton game recently.

 

Spurs had a couple of blazes over the bar that would have given them a much more comfortable ride in the 4-3. We actually took our chances in that game.

 

Most teams have 15 goal strikers because they have midfields which create 60 chances for that striker. How many goals do you think Harry Kane would have got playing for us this season?

 

Hull (away) : we had four shots and scored one. They had 19 and missed them all.

 

Stoke (away): We had 8 chances and scored. They had 28 chances and missed them all.

 

Man United 5-3: We had five shots on target and scored them all!

 

You could argue we have been incredibly LUCKY to win four games since the Villa game is the only one we arguably deserved to win

 

We are exactly where we deserve to be.

 

EDIT: Stats from bbc.

[Col city fan]

That’s just not the case. You have a very selective memory. We actually put away a high proportion of our shots.

When you have as few chances as we have, those that are missed become very memorable. But other teams miss chances in the same way that we do, it’s just that most other teams CREATE enough chances to make those misses quickly forgotten.

You mention Ulloa’s miss against Arsenal but I remember Jack Wilshire heading tamely into Kasper’s hands from 3 yards out. A much worse miss.

Lukaku missed a hat-trick of sitters in the Everton game recently.

Spurs had a couple of blazes over the bar that would have given them a much more comfortable ride in the 4-3. We actually took our chances in that game.

Most teams have 15 goal strikers because they have midfields which create 60 chances for that striker. How many goals do you think Harry Kane would have got playing for us this season?

Hull (away) : we had four shots and scored one. They had 19 and missed them all.

Stoke (away): We had 8 chances and scored. They had 28 chances and missed them all.

Man United 5-3: We had five shots on target and scored them all!

You could argue we have been incredibly LUCKY to win four games since the Villa game is the only one we arguably deserved to win

We are exactly where we deserve to be.

EDIT: Stats from bbc.

Great post.

I literally defy Costa to score 15 goals in this team.

The strikers have all been hammered on here.

The defenders too.

IMO our MIDFIELD has been rubbish.

Pearson has gone out and spent a fortune on two strikers. He's strengthened the defence with Huth.

Yet he's relied upon a midfield two of James and Cambiasso for the bulk of the season.

Big mistake.

[lestajigs]

Yea were just plain shit

[Fox Ulike]

Just to emphasize the point, our 3 main strikers

 

Nugent has 1.4 shots per game

Ulloa has 1.1 shots per game

Vardy has 1 shot per game. That’s the same as Stoke left-back Phil Bardsley.

 

Not sure how we can have missed a hatful of chances from statistics like that.

 

Kane gets 3.2 shots per game.

Austin gets 4.1

Ings gets 2.7

 

What this means is that:

 

Kane scores a goal every 4.37 shots

Ulloa scores a goal every 4.4 shots.

 

That’s hardly us missing chances. That’s us not creating chances.

 

http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/4311/Stages/9155/PlayerStatistics/England-Premier-League-2014-2015

[shailen]

That’s just not the case.  You have a very selective memory.  We actually put away a high proportion of our shots.

 

When you have as few chances as we have, those that are missed become very memorable. But other teams miss chances in the same way that we do, it’s just that most other teams CREATE enough chances to make those misses quickly forgotten.

 

You mention Ulloa’s miss against Arsenal but I remember Jack Wilshire heading tamely into Kasper’s hands from 3 yards out. A much worse miss.

 

Lukaku missed a hat-trick of sitters in the Everton game recently.

 

Spurs had a couple of blazes over the bar that would have given them a much more comfortable ride in the 4-3. We actually took our chances in that game.

 

Most teams have 15 goal strikers because they have midfields which create 60 chances for that striker. How many goals do you think Harry Kane would have got playing for us this season?

 

Hull (away) : we had four shots and scored one. They had 19 and missed them all.

 

Stoke (away): We had 8 chances and scored. They had 28 chances and missed them all.

 

Man United 5-3: We had five shots on target and scored them all!

 

You could argue we have been incredibly LUCKY to win four games since the Villa game is the only one we arguably deserved to win

 

We are exactly where we deserve to be.

 

EDIT: Stats from bbc.

 

The thing is that we create a lot of chances that do not result in shots. The amount of times we get into good areas in games and then do nothing and the attack breaks down. I don't just blame the strikers for this and sometimes I wish they were more brave and shoot more often. Nugent is the only one for me that tries to. A lot of the times we get into good positions and overplay the ball trying to score the perfect goal and lose all the momentum. For me, also it's not the number of chances it's the number of clear cut chances we have had. Maybe other teams near us have more chances a game, but we seem to spurn more guilt edge chances. Like the Wilshere header which I admit I forgot about. And the Lukaku misses, 2/3 came after we were 2-1 up, and we dropped back into our own box. We literally invited them to score. 

 

In the Spurs game you could argue Nugent could have scored twice in the first half as well, although they weren't as clear cut as Chadli's, although the goals Spurs scored were all soft and two were unlucky on our part. Kane's second would have been saved and Schlupp OG was real misfortune. 

 

I'm not trying to make out that we have been robbed or there has been a major injustice. But it seems like most of the goals we score have to have real quality about them. When was the last time we had 3 deflections for a goal or a scruffy unlucky OG in our favour.

[Fox92]

A 15 goal a season striker is a very rare thing at this level. Invariably the come from sides in the top 6.

 

Charlie Austin seems to be the one.

[fleckneymike]

Charlie Austin seems to be the one.

The emphasis on the 'one'

[shailen]

A 15 goal a season striker is a very rare thing at this level. Invariably the come from sides in the top 6.

Lets say a 10/15 goal a season striker

 

Ings has 9

Jelavic has 8 

Austin has 15

Berahino has 12

 

I do agree that we do not have to have one striker scoring all our goals.But in a league where the majority of sides are far superior to you and the midfield won't be able to contribute as much you need a striker that will put the chances away when they get them. That's the reality of teams in and around our position

[Jakemoore]

Anyone who argues that we haven't been the most unlucky side in the league is wrong. But of course, being bottom isn't all about bad luck. We have been poor in patches to.

[fleckneymike]

Lets say a 10/15 goal a season striker

 

Ings has 9

Jelavic has 8 

Austin has 15

Berahino has 12

 

I do agree that we do not have to have one striker scoring all our goals.But in a league where the majority of sides are far superior to you and the midfield won't be able to contribute as much you need a striker that will put the chances away when they get them. That's the reality of teams in and around our position

 

Are you doing this on purpose?

[Webbo]

Anyone who argues that we haven't been the most unlucky side in the league is wrong. But of course, being bottom isn't all about bad luck. We have been poor in patches to.

I'm sure every fan at every club can name bad decisions that have gone against them this season, we only notice what happens at our club.

[shailen]

This season has really bewildered me. The first 6 games of the season we were excellent, not just in terms of results but performance levels were good too. Then we hit a bad patch till the Spurs game, which included a 5 game run without a goal. From the Spurs game till Villa at home we played really well, albeit the Hull result was lucky on our part. Then we had a poor run against Stoke, United and Palace. But since the Arsenal game, we have looked good again with Hull at home being the exception. I really don't know what to expect from us anymore. We seem to do well against the better footballing sides and can't play against the ones that like to be more physical and defend more deeply. I don't think it's a matter of not having the quality because we have shown that we can compete with the best of them, but we don't have the quality to break oppositions down. That has been our undoing this season. I don't blame the tactics too much apart from when we played a diamond in midfield, but apart from that I don't really think we have played any worse in any formation. We have looked the same offensively and defensively. 

[Foxiled]

englishoxide.

Quote.

I'm not going to pick through your responses to my post because you messed up the quoting. Well done. But why are you blaming players like Cambiasso, Schluup and Nuge missing open goals on management.

I didn't , you prat. I blamed those players for having a lack of skill for missing open goals.

Management comes in to play when you've a striker making last ditch tackles in the box.

That's not bad management its bad fortune or a lack of quality. In that case are you saying we should have bought a new squad at the start of the season? (on bigger wages and all the disharmony and uncertainty that comes with it).

We should have invested pre season. strengthened a squad in the summer. Anyone could see our defense wasn't up to it and relying on pk, who wasn't good enough for rhe championship, was pig headed stupidity.

Quote

If you balanced out all the so called lucky calls, and not get silly by saying burnly beating man c was down to our bad luck, we'd still be bottom.

Well done for spectacularly missing my point.

Well done for being a ****.

Quote

I must have imagined the dodgy penalty and two UNLUCKY own goals then. In any case. You realise Spurs are a pretty good side who are usually rooted in the top 6 yeah? Of course they are very likely to score against us.

see previous comment. I can't bother to reply to this again, just like you can't be bothered to read my post properly.

[muzzy1981]

You can't be unlucky over the course of a season, maybe a play off final

[Col city fan]

Unless Nigel turns it around miraculously, how can people still say 'he's the best man for the job'?

Given all the facts and figures, stats, watching games, how can people still defend him? I mean..really?

I don't get it personally.

Fair play to people's loyalty though I guess. It's been quite amazing.

[Swiss_tony]

what most of you belittling fleckney's point is that teams near the bottom have all had similar 'luck'.

the impression given is, we have an ok team, not great, but reffing decisions or luck for other teams has put paid to us.

that's horse manure. Luck evens itself out over a season.

I saw burnley denied a cast iron penalty agauinst soton, who then went ahead not more than 2 minutes later.

it's just that you don't see other teams games and so can't make that connection.

The whole point of stats is they take luck out of the equation.

[Guest ttfn]

Luck evens itself out over a season.

 

This is nonsense, peddled by fans of the better supported clubs, who, not uncoincidentally, get the the overwhelming rub of the green on decisions. 

 

.

I saw burnley denied a cast iron penalty agauinst soton, who then went ahead not more than 2 minutes later.

it's just that you don't see other teams games and so can't make that connection.

 

 

Again, utter rubbish. They might have been denied a cast iron penalty in one recent game, but they in the last 10-15 games, off the top of my head they've:

1) Scored at Man City with a goal that was clearly offside.

2) Not had Barnes sent off for 2 horror tackles in a game against Chelsea, one of which resulted in Matic being sent off.

3) Had 1 obvious penalty not given against them, and a further pretty good shout not given against them at Stamford Bridge.

4) Got away with an obvious penalty against them (and to add insult to injury Zabaleta was booked for diving) against them in the Man City game at Turf Moor.

 

That is just Burnley in the last 10 matches or so. QPR had a couple of great shouts for penalties against Spurs, but then again Oezil was clearly fouled in their home match against Arsenal with the goal gaping (no penalty was given), they should have had Rob Green sent off after about 10 minutes in their home match against Swansea, Karl Henry should have been sent off in that same game as well (and in the end Wayne Routledge got sent off as a result of that incident).

 

As I have said previously no, it is not just us getting bad decisions go against us. But it is seemingly just us not getting any bad decisions going for us either.It's not an excuse for being bottom of the league and it's not a sign of any kind of conspiracy. It's just luck, plain and simple, and is the reason we sit 7 points adrift of safety rather than a more manageable 2-5.

 

My feelings on this season and our performance are well documented; it has been an absolute disaster. But let's not pretend that we haven't been absolutely shafted by officials since September, because we have. Has there been a worse decision in the Premier League this season than the first Liverpool penalty in our game at Anfield? That's not a matter of interpretation, it's a matter of the official thinking Wes Morgan has hands on his face for goodness sake.

[inckley fox]

This is nonsense, peddled by fans of the better supported clubs, who, not uncoincidentally, get the the overwhelming rub of the green on decisions. 

 

Again, utter rubbish. They might have been denied a cast iron penalty in one recent game, but they in the last 10-15 games, off the top of my head they've:

1) Scored at Man City with a goal that was clearly offside.

2) Not had Barnes sent off for 2 horror tackles in a game against Chelsea, one of which resulted in Matic being sent off.

3) Had 1 obvious penalty not given against them, and a further pretty good shout not given against them at Stamford Bridge.

4) Got away with an obvious penalty against them (and to add insult to injury Zabaleta was booked for diving) against them in the Man City game at Turf Moor.

 

That is just Burnley in the last 10 matches or so. QPR had a couple of great shouts for penalties against Spurs, but then again Oezil was clearly fouled in their home match against Arsenal with the goal gaping (no penalty was given), they should have had Rob Green sent off after about 10 minutes in their home match against Swansea, Karl Henry should have been sent off in that same game as well (and in the end Wayne Routledge got sent off as a result of that incident).

 

As I have said previously no, it is not just us getting bad decisions go against us. But it is seemingly just us not getting any bad decisions going for us either.It's not an excuse for being bottom of the league and it's not a sign of any kind of conspiracy. It's just luck, plain and simple, and is the reason we sit 7 points adrift of safety rather than a more manageable 2-5.

 

My feelings on this season and our performance are well documented; it has been an absolute disaster. But let's not pretend that we haven't been absolutely shafted by officials since September, because we have. Has there been a worse decision in the Premier League this season than the first Liverpool penalty in our game at Anfield? That's not a matter of interpretation, it's a matter of the official thinking Wes Morgan has hands on his face for goodness sake.

 

My memory isn't great so I tend to focus on the last few games. Against Spurs a debatable penalty went against us and most pundits backed the ref's decision. Against Hull a few big decisions went our way and most pundits didn't. I'm not sure that's representative of the whole season, and yes a fair few decisions have gone against us, but I'm pretty confident that our league position owes more to our failure to turn up on 8-9 occasions this season that to some sort of nebulous agenda officials have against us.

 

I'm also sure that fans of other teams seeing us unashamedly waving the 'hard done to' card would laugh us out of town.

 

Besides, a lot of those penalties we won last season to get us where we are now were questionable. I wouldn't stand for somebody telling us how damn lucky we were to get up, because we were clearly good enough to warrant it. This time the boot is sadly on the other foot.

[shailen]

Unless Nigel turns it around miraculously, how can people still say 'he's the best man for the job'?

Given all the facts and figures, stats, watching games, how can people still defend him? I mean..really?

I don't get it personally.

Fair play to people's loyalty though I guess. It's been quite amazing.

 

I think a lot of it has to with his past record. Any other manager would have got the sack in the position we are in although we have played well when the pressure on Pearson is on, we haven't got the results. 

I did say Pearson deserved the season, and yes he hasn't delivered this year, but I stick by that still. The amount of success he has had in the past with us, I'm sure he will get it right. Curbishley, Mowbray, Bruce are all managers who struggled initially in the PL and have come back stronger. However, if he doesn't do well next year regardless of the division we are in, then I'd be for him to leave. There comes a point where insanity overtakes loyalty. 

What it really comes down to is the blame game? Who do you blame for this season? Manager for bad tactics. Players for poor performances. Owners/director of football for a lack of signings. The reality is that it is a combination of all of these things.

What amazed me is that a lot of people show a lot of negativity towards Pearson, yet the night he did get "sacked", i don't think I found one negative comment. 

[Swiss_tony]

This is nonsense, peddled by fans of the better supported clubs, who, not uncoincidentally, get the the overwhelming rub of the green on decisions. 

 

Again, utter rubbish. They might have been denied a cast iron penalty in one recent game, but they in the last 10-15 games, off the top of my head they've:

1) Scored at Man City with a goal that was clearly offside.

2) Not had Barnes sent off for 2 horror tackles in a game against Chelsea, one of which resulted in Matic being sent off.

3) Had 1 obvious penalty not given against them, and a further pretty good shout not given against them at Stamford Bridge.

4) Got away with an obvious penalty against them (and to add insult to injury Zabaleta was booked for diving) against them in the Man City game at Turf Moor.

 

That is just Burnley in the last 10 matches or so. QPR had a couple of great shouts for penalties against Spurs, but then again Oezil was clearly fouled in their home match against Arsenal with the goal gaping (no penalty was given), they should have had Rob Green sent off after about 10 minutes in their home match against Swansea, Karl Henry should have been sent off in that same game as well (and in the end Wayne Routledge got sent off as a result of that incident).

 

As I have said previously no, it is not just us getting bad decisions go against us. But it is seemingly just us not getting any bad decisions going for us either.It's not an excuse for being bottom of the league and it's not a sign of any kind of conspiracy. It's just luck, plain and simple, and is the reason we sit 7 points adrift of safety rather than a more manageable 2-5.

 

My feelings on this season and our performance are well documented; it has been an absolute disaster. But let's not pretend that we haven't been absolutely shafted by officials since September, because we have. Has there been a worse decision in the Premier League this season than the first Liverpool penalty in our game at Anfield? That's not a matter of interpretation, it's a matter of the official thinking Wes Morgan has hands on his face for goodness sake.

i think it's a symptom not a cause.

one tensd to look for reasons when things are going bad.

from the games i've seen we've not been shafted by refs other than the pen against liverpool an obvious mistake missed by the officials.

if vardy had been pulled up for his foul in the man u game v rafael we wouldn't have gotten that penalty that allowoed us to go onto win.

so you could argue that if we gotten some things go our way and some not.

i really don't think it's cost us as many points as you think it has and therefore isn't as much as an effect on us overall.