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An Away Move

The role of luck and chance in our season

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Just watched MOTD again and think we were very lucky that one of Swansea's shots was deflected wide. It could have so easily gone in and for us to feel sorry for ourselves at the sheer bad fortune of it. Especially as we've hardly had the rub of the green this season and the way the game was poised at the time at 1:0.

 

Which got me thinking about an article I read in a newspaper a couple of years ago about the role of chance in football and accidents. Luck plays an enormous role in every single football match, so much so, the article suggests, that it is almost as important as the skill of a team. It's the main ingredient of why an excellent team ALWAYS has the possibility of losing against a minnow. And possibly why it used to be next to impossible to win on The Pools. It's also the reason why, no matter how careful a driver/rider you are, it's the something unexpected and unforeseen that can cause the accident.

 

I think this book may be where the article I read comes from. Has anyone read it?

 

Why Everything You Know About Football Is Wrong

 

May we have the luck as well as the passion and skill for the remainder of our run in. Up the foxes!!!

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There is no doubt luck has a part in football. You could argue that Kings goal was lucky against West Ham but people will point to good positional play. Similarly Nuges goal takes a deflection off a West Brom defender when his first touch would have probably taken the ball to the keeper.

The thing that is not lucky is the number of chances we have missed. That's just poor quality. The bigger teams make them count. That effectively is the difference. I would go as far as saying we have outplayed all the big teams apart from United this season, but their quality has hurt us.

On the other hand, a lot of teams have had more decisions go in their favour, another one being the Vardy foul which should have been a penalty. That is just poor bad luck and if those decisions had been given correctly we may be close to mid table now.

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We were lucky last season a hell of a lot, that luck came about through everyone's hardwork, playing on the front-foot in & around the opposition's area. to that sort of degree you make your own luck.

 

However there is still that element of chance & too often we've been on the wrong end of it, which is the norm for teams near the bottom

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I disagree that the deflected shot was 'very lucky'.

 

I'd say that it's good defending for a defender to get a block in. However I would say that it'd have been very unlucky (and very bloody typical) had it gone in after wrong footing Kasper.

 

We were lucky that Oliveira is a greedy sod though. He wanted the glory of scoring, not the respect for not falling over.

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See my sig. below. That is what I think about luck, and it can be applied to football quite easily.

 

It has been stated above that the better teams seem to have the better luck; I think that has a lot to do with being in a position to take advantage of it. That might mean by being that much fitter, tactically superior or simply creating more opportunities where you might get lucky through skill or endeavor. 

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If luck was that much of a factor then league finishing places would be much more random. As it is pretty much the same group of teams finish in pretty much the same group of positions year after year. Leads to the conclusion that luck can be an important factor within individual games but over the course of several games it is ability that counts. The cream always rises to the top.

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