foxoffderby Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 What a stupid thread. Bookies are running a business, just trying to protect their losses. Either ride it out or don't bet in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treer Posted 9 February 2016 Author Share Posted 9 February 2016 its in his best interest to wait if city do well, he doesn't know though does he? when the original bet was made he was risking a fiver most people would be pretty comfortable with that. But now that fiver is worth £1400 i daresay most people on here would not be comfortable with that riding on the outcome of a match After the Arsenal match the bet is either worth more than 1400 or less than 1400, its a gamble but a gamble a lot bigger than the origanal £5 bet If city beat Arsenal the origanal fiver will be worth over 2500, if they lose maybe 700 Its a dilemma what to do, but a beautiful dilemma nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stefl14 Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 The bookies aren't ripping anyone off. The value calculation you use assumes individuals only care about the mathematical expectation of a bet, which for the vast majority of people is not the case. Most people are risk averse: they care about the uncertainty of outcomes. A natural implication of this is that most people would rather accept an amount less than the expected payout of the bet instead of taking the risk. Current odds imply that Leicester has about 30% chance of winning the league. This is easy to calculate. Odds of 2/1 imply that Leicester has a probability of 1/3 of winning the league under the assumption that bookies make no profits. Adjusting for the profits bookies make using the sum of the implied probabilities as a deflator gives about 30%. Given this, suppose I had made a £10 bet on Leicester winning the title at 5000/1 in August. If Leicester were to win the league I'd get £50,000 whereas if they didn't I'd win nothing. My expected winnings, if the implied probabilities are to be believed, would be 0.3*50,000+0.7*0 = £15,000. Virtually all studies of human decision making show that the vast majority of people, especially those who aren't absurdly rich, would take an amount less than £15,000 instead of taking the risk. One case where that might not be true is in things like football where, as fans, we have biased and therefore optimistic estimates of the probability of our team winning. All that proves, however, is that when things we are emotionally invested in are at stake we sometimes make irrational decisions that don't serve our best interests. However, the argument is even easier to see with an event about which you only care about because of the impact it will have on you financially. If there were an investment that would pay out £100,000 with a 1% probability or £0 with a 99% probability then the expected return of this investment would £1000. I'm pretty sure the vast majority if not all of us, however, would take £900, or even £500 or less in a heartbeat instead of investing. This is because we are risk averse. The fact is that it can't be a rip-off if people are willing to take the deal offered to them anyway. Even if a person accepts a ridiculously low amount, it might just reflect the fact that they are very risk averse. It's a choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramboacdc Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 heard some horror stories of bookies ringing fans with bets on leicester offering money for bets called cashout the offer is derisory and not worth much over HALF the true value If you have a bet it is easy to find the real worth of your bet how much you win/ CURRENT odds so £5 at 1000/1 would be how much you win=5000 CURRENT odds=3.5 so 5000/3.5= £1428 So when they offer cashout it should be around this figure(£1428) You can realise this amount on any betting exchange, it doesn't have to be with the same firm has you have bet with Of course you would need an the funds to do this, and I suggest if you have never used an exchange get help from someone who has as an ex bookie, i can tell you bookies do not and will not ring you to cash out. they will let the bet ride and lay it off elsewhere and take some off the top (common business practice of course) also that current odds does not work off the premise of a layers commission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmt Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 Bookies in making profit shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 they are offering half the value, did you not read my original post? i have shown how a punter can get twice as much as what the bookie is offering are you saying if you had bet £5 at 1000/1 you would cash out with the bookie for 700 rather than 1400? , if you are you are insane Whether you cash or not is a different issue Are you a moron ? The punter has an option they can hedge or cash in The choice is thiers ! No one is forcing cashouts on punters Honestly what on earth are you whinging about ? I can buy a 9.99 bottle of wine or 999.99 bottle of wine both taste ok and both get me pissed , but I have the choice which one I want to buy Honestly how has this stupid post not been merged with other post ? Or locked and deleted There is no debate here ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 as an ex bookie, i can tell you bookies do not and will not ring you to cash out. they will let the bet ride and lay it off elsewhere and take some off the top (common business practice of course) also that current odds does not work off the premise of a layers commission. 1000% correct ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripeyfox Posted 9 February 2016 Share Posted 9 February 2016 FFS! The punter has the option to take the offer, or let it ride. How is this a rip off? If this is all you have to worry about, then you're doing better than me pal! It is hardly a "horror story" if a bookie phones you to make you an offer. Take it or tell him to go screw himself. Up to the punter. You are massively exaggerating a non existent issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
treer Posted 10 February 2016 Author Share Posted 10 February 2016 as an ex bookie, i can tell you bookies do not and will not ring you to cash out. they will let the bet ride and lay it off elsewhere and take some off the top (common business practice of course) also that current odds does not work off the premise of a layers commission. ex bookie, sounds like the only thing you understand about betting is cleaning the floor after the shop is shut. the commisson would be around 70 off the punters payout of 1400, still a little better than the bookies offer of 700, wouldn't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripeyfox Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 ex bookie, sounds like the only thing you understand about betting is cleaning the floor after the shop is shut. the commisson would be around 70 off the punters payout of 1400, still a little better than the bookies offer of 700, wouldn't you agree? As has been pointed out to you by several people already, I think it is you that doesn't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 What a terrible thread. How can it be robbery? You ain't forced to cash out r ya? I feel I've been 'robbed' here..robbed of my time reading this thread. I thought it was gonna be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripeyfox Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 What a terrible thread. How can it be robbery? You ain't forced to cash out r ya? I feel I've been 'robbed' here..robbed of my time reading this thread. I thought it was gonna be worth it. Exactly. If I offer you £500 for your car, you can either take it or tell me to get stuffed. Either way, it's not a rip off. (although I don't know what your car is like!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filbert_Ross Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 Anyone would think that we've mathematically won the league already and now the bookies are offering less of a payout than you won. They don't have to offer anything. Your choice if you accept an offer or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Col city fan Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 Exactly. If I offer you £500 for your car, you can either take it or tell me to get stuffed. Either way, it's not a rip off. (although I don't know what your car is like!)500 quid! Bloody cheapskate... Someone needs to post that monty python sketch of the fella haggling in the market place. You've got to haggle. ....,.. "1500 quid for a cash out! You've got to be kidding! It's worth 1800 if it's worth a shekel" Etc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramboacdc Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 ex bookie, sounds like the only thing you understand about betting is cleaning the floor after the shop is shut. the commisson would be around 70 off the punters payout of 1400, still a little better than the bookies offer of 700, wouldn't you agree? i did see this and debate if it warranted a response As has been pointed out to you by several people already, I think it is you that doesn't understand. and then @@stripeyfox beat me to it! kudos my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safetosurfthisbeach Posted 10 February 2016 Share Posted 10 February 2016 Gambling is a mug's game.... and of course bookies know that more than anyone. Anyone who gambles regularly is a legitimate target for a bookie - can't blame them for trying to find ways of making even more money out of these suckers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam1 Posted 11 February 2016 Share Posted 11 February 2016 5% commission on betfair???? I only pay 2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yorkie1999 Posted 11 February 2016 Share Posted 11 February 2016 Gambling is a mug's game.... and of course bookies know that more than anyone. Anyone who gambles regularly is a legitimate target for a bookie - can't blame them for trying to find ways of making even more money out of these suckers Theyre not making more money though, theyre just losing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Year Of The Fox Posted 11 February 2016 Share Posted 11 February 2016 The girl I know who stands to win 30 odd thousand was offered 3k at Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 11 February 2016 Share Posted 11 February 2016 The girl I know who stands to win 30 odd thousand was offered 3k at Christmas Decent offer at that stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Year Of The Fox Posted 12 February 2016 Share Posted 12 February 2016 Decent offer at that stage Suppose so but she declined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broughtonblue Posted 12 February 2016 Share Posted 12 February 2016 I had £2 @ 1500/1. So £3002 return. Being offered £830 atm, never realised I was being robbed!! If it gets to £1400 I might think about it as it pays for my holiday !! Or I might let it run and if it comes up its the European away days paid for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramboacdc Posted 12 February 2016 Share Posted 12 February 2016 5% commission on betfair???? I only pay 2%. how much you bet on betfair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 12 February 2016 Share Posted 12 February 2016 I had £2 @ 1500/1. So £3002 return. Being offered £830 atm, never realised I was being robbed!! If it gets to £1400 I might think about it as it pays for my holiday !! Or I might let it run and if it comes up its the European away days paid for Exactly how are you being robbed ? It's 800 on a 11/4 shot ? Not exactly robbing is it You don't like the offer you carry on ! Actually that's a fantastic offer with so many games to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 12 February 2016 Share Posted 12 February 2016 Suppose so but she declinedI'd say the offer would be around £6000-7500 at yeh moment She must be loaded if she is having £7500 @ 3-1 on city to win the title I'm fearing some really horrid tales come May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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