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jonthefox

The "do they mean us?" thread

By jonthefox, in Leicester City Forum

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Babylon

Babylon

Posted
Posted

It's a decent write-up but it ignores one key factor and that is the amount we have invested in the facilities, training and sports science, it feels like we are leaving no stone unturned in getting the best out of these players. It is bizarre that we seem to be the only ones doing this, what is the point of spending millions on players if you are not doing everything you can to ensure they are at their best. Training facilities, sports science, cryo-therapy chambers, anything to give us an advantage.

I think it's what Pearson said in one of the few interviews he did with Radio Leicester. That it's a game of percentages, all the things they do behind the scenes where they go the extra mile compared to others, might only help a fraction of a percent. But over all the different things they do, those fractions add up and can give you a slight edge over the course of a season.

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Captain...

Captain...

Posted
Posted

I think it's what Pearson said in one of the few interviews he did with Radio Leicester. That it's a game of percentages, all the things they do behind the scenes where they go the extra mile compared to others, might only help a fraction of a percent. But over all the different things they do, those fractions add up and can give you a slight edge over the course of a season.

 

The Clive Woodward approach

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cjslcfc

cjslcfc

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Posted

Can Leicester City sustain success?

 

Leicester City, which carried 2,500-to-1 title odds at the start of the season, sit alone atop the Premier League table.

After 16 Premier League games last season, Leicester City ranked dead last with 10 points. The Foxes had two wins and 15 goals, the fourth fewest in the league.

After 16 Premier League games this season, Leicester City is in first place with 35 points. The Foxes have 10 wins (one shy of their total last season) and a league-leading 34 goals.

Leicester City is unbeaten in nine straight games in a first-division season for the first time since 1966.

Leicester forward Jamie Vardy leads the league with 15 goals, and he's scored or assisted in a Premier League-record 14 straight games.

Ranking third in the league with 11 goals, Riyad Mahrez has combined with Vardy for 26 goals. That's more than 15 Premier League teams, including Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea.

What in the name of the Leicester native Gary Lineker is going on in central England? And more intriguingly, is it sustainable?

Using advanced statistics and ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI), let's examine how Leicester City is succeeding and how likely that success is to continue.

What do underlying stats say?

Let's start with the obvious. Leicester City is scoring a ton of goals.

In Europe's top-five leagues this season, only five teams have scored more goals per game than Leicester's 2.12, and the list is impressive: Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, PSG, Barcelona and Real Madrid.

The Foxes are seventh in the Premier League alone in shots taken, which suggests they've been fortunate so far. However, Leicester City ranks third in the league in expected goals (the number of goals a team is projected to score based on the specific shots taken), as a result of taking quality shots.

Leicester's average shot distance of 17.7 yards is the third-shortest in the league, and the Foxes average 0.13 expected goals per shot, which is a close second to Arsenal among English teams.

That adds up to a plus-3.8 goals above average (GAA), meaning Leicester City has scored 3.8 goals more than the expected-goals metric anticipated, good for the second-highest mark in the league this season behind Everton's plus-6.9.

Projecting Leicester City's current pace over a full season yields an expected-goals total of plus-9.0. Over the previous five seasons, just four Premier League clubs produced a higher GAA in a season. Two of those teams won the title (2013-14 Man City and 2010-11 Man United); one narrowly missed (2013-14 Liverpool); and one oddly finished 12th (2013-14 Swansea City).

So Leicester appears to be overachieving, currently scoring on 42 percent of its shots on target, which would be the second-highest rate in the past six Premier League seasons.

The Foxes have also scored on 15 percent of their total shots this season, which would be the fourth-highest rate in the past six English seasons. Those numbers suggest Leicester City is due for a drop-off over the rest of the season.

Looking specifically at Leicester's top scorers, Mahrez leads the Premier League with a plus-5.11 GAA this season, and Vardy is third at plus-3.42. They've scored on a combined 25 percent of their shots, compared to the league average of 10 percent.

The stats indicate both are likely to slow down, though the rest of the team has a minus-4.73 GAA, so perhaps they can pick up the slack.

The good news for the Foxes is that they don't appear to be getting lucky defensively, ranking eighth in the league with 22 goals conceded. That's nearly identical to an expected-goals total of 21.3, and Leicester opponents rank between eighth and 12th in the league in all shooting rates.

One thing the Foxes are doing well is blocking shots. They've gotten in the way of 32 percent of their opponents' attempts this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league.

 

Shifting title odds

Before the season began, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook pegged Leicester City's title odds at 2,500-to-1, the fourth-worst in the league, and English bookmakers had Leicester's odds as high as 5,000-to-1.

Westgate has now reduced Leicester's odds to 20-1, the fourth-lowest in the league, translating to implied odds of about 5 percent.

SPI has the Foxes in a similar position, projecting them with a 4.2 percent chance to win the title. That's just behind third choice Manchester United at 6 percent but well off favorites Manchester City at 45 percent and Arsenal at 44 percent.

Leicester lags behind because of an offensive SPI rating that is good at 1.66, sixth-best in the league, but significantly short of leaders Man City (2.21) and Arsenal (2.06).

Leicester's defensive SPI rating of 1.35 is currently 15th in the league, also trailing City (1.00) and Arsenal (0.98).

Those numbers mean that City and Arsenal are each projected to score about half a goal more than Leicester on a neutral field against average opposition, while allowing a third of a goal less.

Leicester is currently projected for fourth place, holding a 60 percent chance to finish in the top four and get at least a Champions League qualifying berth.

With Man City and Arsenal near locks for the top four, SPI projects six other teams with at least an 8 percent chance to join them, though Leicester has double the odds of fifth-best Tottenham.

 

What lies ahead for Leicester

There's no arguing that Leicester City has had a favorable early schedule, playing only three games against last season's top-six teams during its first dozen games this season.

But at the halfway point of a month-long, six-game stretch that many thought would be decisive, the Foxes are still in first place after taking seven points from Manchester United, Swansea City and Chelsea.

Next up are consecutive trips to Merseyside on the 19th (Everton) and 26th (Liverpool), followed three days later by a home game against Manchester City.

SPI projects the Foxes to take a total of 3.05 points from this trio of games, with about a 25 percent chance of winning each one. Anything more than three points will improve Leicester City's title odds, and a win over Man City alone will nearly double Leicester's championship projections to almost 8 percent .

From a Champions League standpoint, winning any of the next three games would improve Leicester's hopes to about 72 percent, independent of other outcomes. Six points would push Leicester's top-four projection near 80 percent.

Even the nightmare scenario of three losses wouldn't be lethal to Leicester's Champions League dream, cutting its odds to about 40 percent, still fourth-best in the league.

If the Foxes hang onto a top-four spot, they would be the first team to finish that high within two seasons of being promoted since Nottingham Forest took third place in its first season back in the Premier League in 1994-95.

Newcastle did come close four seasons ago, finishing fifth two seasons after returning to the top flight. That is the only team to reach the top seven within two seasons of promotion in the past decade.

 

 

One problem I have with the analysis saying we are fortunate is that we probably don't take many shots from outside the box. Neither do we seem to take many hopeful pot shots. Therefore, our shots are more likely to be when we have a better chance of scoring. Hence, the higher conversion rate.

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JonesLCFC

JonesLCFC

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Posted

Fantastic article about the so called 'weaker' Premier League. I agree 100% with this. Leicester are the punk revolution of this leagues history, without a doubt.

 

I’m fed up of hearing that this season’s Premier League is the weakest it’s been in years. Just because Leicester City sit top of the table, it doesn’t mean standards have slumped. In fact I’d say their success proves the exact opposite. 

To me, English football’s top flight is in the rudest of health.

I’ll ask you this; was the Premier League a stronger place when bottom-half sides waved the white flag before they’d even turned up at certain grounds? Of course it wasn’t.

When Mick McCarthy was rightly chastised (and fined) for fielding a Wolves reserve XI at Old Trafford in 2009, his controversial call was merely symptomatic of defeatist attitudes at the time. A lot of minnows didn’t believe they stood a chance against the big boys.

94474771-the-wolves-players-form-a-huddl

Ultra-defensive tactics, one-sided pass fests, and ritual hammerings were served up as the order of the day. It was boring.

We may have less ‘bankers’ on our betting slips, but as a spectacle, thank goodness times have changed.

It’s as if a perfect storm has been created this season.

Richer than ever, and craving to be recipients of the £5billion TV bounty that’s dished out next summer, those outside the traditional top eight have invested heavily (and in most cases wisely) in talent they would never ordinarily have been able to attract.

Boasting so many players that belong at Premier League level, there’s no such thing as an inferiority complex anymore. They play to win, and rightly so because they’re good enough.  

483585118-john-stones-of-everton-during-

The grip on star men has also tightened. Until a couple of years ago the likes of Saido Berahino, John Stones, Yannick Bolasie and Sadio Mane would all have been sold when interest in them intensified. Yet from a position of strength, their owners held firm in the last window. It’s a healthy trend.

The introduction of 25-man squads and Financial Fair Play restrictions hasn’t prevented stockpiling completely, but it’s harder to cherry pick from smaller clubs than it has been before.

Spreading the best players around the division can only be seen a very, very good thing.

From a players’ perspective the lure of joining a giant is also less attractive. Take Leicester City’s star men Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N’Golo Kante for example. They don’t need to leave the King Power Stadium to secure their financial futures, that’s in the bag already, and they’re enjoying regular game time for a side that can compete with anybody. Champions League football is the only aspect they’re missing out on (for now).

Playing for teams with a positive attitude, working with outstanding coaches, and surrounded by other excellent players, we shouldn’t be surprised that guys like Cabaye, Ighalo, Payet, Lukaku, Bojan and Mane all seem so content in their environments. The gap in class has definitely closed.

Have our elite clubs gone downhill? Some have certainly stagnated, and that’s helped create this excitement.

Poor purchases and managerial upheaval have held Liverpool and Manchester United back, while Man City and Chelsea have both seen their fat wallets shrunk to some extent by FFP rules preventing them from spending silly money. The power vacuum has wilted.

Mismatches make for dull viewing anyway. Pleasingly, three and four goal margins are now thin on the ground and the stats prove we’ve seen far fewer thrashings in the last 18 months.

484300446-leicester-manager-claudio-rani

Anybody can beat anybody now, and everyone knows it.

When I saw Leicester destroy Chelsea, Stoke outplay Manchester City, and Bournemouth tear Man United to shreds, the last word that came into my head was ‘weak’.

These are halcyon days that should be welcomed.

A leveller playing field creates so much more fun for the fans, and it’s incredibly alluring for the players to be part of too. They love competitive matches as much as the rest of us.

How our big clubs fare in the Champions League no longer bothers me that much.

The Premier League party is the place to be. And if this concertina affect continues, it will only get bigger and better. 

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americanfox

americanfox

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Posted

One problem I have with the analysis saying we are fortunate is that we probably don't take many shots from outside the box. Neither do we seem to take many hopeful pot shots. Therefore, our shots are more likely to be when we have a better chance of scoring. Hence, the higher conversion rate.

 

A previous Insider article by Mike Goodman pointed this out. You're essentially accusing of "bias" (don't know if right word, wish there was a less charged word) by omission, but I can deal with that from an outside analysis.

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Number 6

Number 6

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Posted

It's a decent write-up but it ignores one key factor and that is the amount we have invested in the facilities, training and sports science, it feels like we are leaving no stone unturned in getting the best out of these players. It is bizarre that we seem to be the only ones doing this, what is the point of spending millions on players if you are not doing everything you can to ensure they are at their best. Training facilities, sports science, cryo-therapy chambers, anything to give us an advantage.

I'm sure I read before that Southampton used to take their own bedding to away hotels and it was always washed in the same stuff to make them feel more at home. Not sure if they're still doing it but suspect other clubs are looking at ways to extract the most out of their players.

We're certainly doing it better than most at the moment though.

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fuchsntf

fuchsntf

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Posted

Fantastic article about the so called 'weaker' Premier League. I agree 100% with this. Leicester are the punk revolution of this leagues history, without a doubt.

 

I’m fed up of hearing that this season’s Premier League is the weakest it’s been in years. Just because Leicester City sit top of the table, it doesn’t mean standards have slumped. In fact I’d say their success proves the exact opposite. 

To me, English football’s top flight is in the rudest of health.

I’ll ask you this; was the Premier League a stronger place when bottom-half sides waved the white flag before they’d even turned up at certain grounds? Of course it wasn’t.

Ultra-defensive tactics, one-sided pass fests, and ritual hammerings were served up as the order of the day. It was boring.

We may have less ‘bankers’ on our betting slips, but as a spectacle, thank goodness times have changed.

It’s as if a perfect storm has been created this season.

Until a couple of years ago the likes of Saido Berahino, John Stones, Yannick Bolasie and Sadio Mane would all have been sold when interest in them intensified. Yet from a position of strength, their owners held firm in the last window. It’s a healthy trend.

The introduction of 25-man squads and Financial Fair Play restrictions hasn’t prevented stockpiling completely, but it’s harder to cherry pick from smaller clubs than it has been before.

Spreading the best players around the division can only be seen a very, very good thing.

From a players’ perspective the lure of joining a giant is also less attractive. Take Leicester City’s star men Jamie Vardy, Riyad Mahrez and N’Golo Kante for example. They don’t need to leave the King Power Stadium to secure their financial futures, that’s in the bag already, and they’re enjoying regular game time for a side that can compete with anybody. Champions League football is the only aspect they’re missing out on (for now).

Playing for teams with a positive attitude, working with outstanding coaches, and surrounded by other excellent players, we shouldn’t be surprised that guys like Cabaye, Ighalo, Payet, Lukaku, Bojan and Mane all seem so content in their environments. The gap in class has definitely closed.

Have our elite clubs gone downhill? Some have certainly stagnated, and that’s helped create this excitement.

Poor purchases and managerial upheaval have held Liverpool and Manchester United back, while Man City and Chelsea have both seen their fat wallets shrunk to some extent by FFP rules preventing them from spending silly money. .

When I saw Leicester destroy Chelsea, Stoke outplay Manchester City, and Bournemouth tear Man United to shreds, the last word that came into my head was ‘weak’.

These are halcyon days that should be welcomed.

A leveller playing field creates so much more fun for the fans, and it’s incredibly alluring for the players to be part of too. They love competitive matches as much as the rest of us.

How our big clubs fare in the Champions League no longer bothers me that much.

The Premier League party is the place to be. And if this concertina affect continues, it will only get bigger and better.

The last 2 weeks, I wanted write such a post, I totally, totally agree with you....

journalists panelist, pundits, and quite a few fans, just cant get it into their heads, that past avg-clubs, are finding

again, the team spirit, but their skill levels in the 1st 6-8 teams top players has levelled out, and not by any means

for the worse. The big clubs can afford a WClass squad with all 20-25 players, who would walk mouth wateringly,

into an avg teams first 11.

From Bournemouth upwards, these once moderate teams can now deliver a kick, with no less punch or skill.

from their first teamers. City could look at W.Ham, Palace, Swansea, Southampton, but this season

with City and Watford joining the ranks, and with Newcastle, WBA, Stoke not lagging far behind,

Everton.Spurs, a n d liverpool, or any top team, not turning up are struggling to hold their expected

league position range. We see ex-players pundits armchair predictions not being 'easy or to form'

This is not making a weaker league, but a stronger and harder league, especially for the Biggies.

Lets not get confused...British teams have always struggled in Europe, and then

had the occassional success.Neither Manu, Chelsea, Arsenal and now mancity, have maintained

any yearly top 4CL ratings.We have been abysmal in the Euefa cup, not qualifying but again

regular semi or final. So we cant use that has a yard stick.

This years PL is strong, thanking the also rans. So far AV and Sunderland are really and simply

just out of it.

Chelsea...the players are either mentally tired, or just no longer mentally ready for that renewed

character internal fight they should have.Their players have cocked it up not the manager.

LVG was not right for Manu.Arsenal best placed for title, Man.city though still holding in,

from the biggies.

All upstarts, just keep rocking the boat please...

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ajthefox

ajthefox

Posted
Posted (edited)

Normally the expected sides are in the best positions. Leicester are an inspiration and the way they play is very refreshing. Neutral fans will have a soft spot towards Leicester. It's the worst time to play them. Leicester are a very good team who deserve to be top.They are title contenders because of how competitive they've been. Leicester have no fear and they know exactly what they're doing. We know we will have to be at our best.

 

 

Martinez comments.

Wenger has been complementary of us, but this is the first time I've read comments about us being serious contenders and felt like they were sincere. 

Don't always agree with the bloke but Martinez is a classy bloke.

Edited by ajthefox
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MANFACE

MANFACE

Posted
Posted
"Khalekan said: ↑
This seems to have been lost amidst the fume.

We lost today, undeservedly so IMO, to a team which at this moment in time sits five points clear at the top of the table.

It wasn't like we lost to a team in the relegation zone."
 
banno:
 
"Totally agree. Credit to Leicester who have found a temporary way to beat better teams than them but we all know with hand on heart that it will not last. We do shoot ourselves in the foot but Rome wasn't built in a day."
 
 
Some shit comments on there from the thieving scousers.
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MooseBreath

MooseBreath

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Posted (edited)

The Everton fans thought they would walk all over us today. I've no idea where their confidence comes from or where this idea that they're a particularly good side comes from because the only teams they've been able to beat this season are absolutely shit.

They describe Mahrez as "Mcgeady on flake". 1) who the fvck is mcgeady and 2) what the fvck is 'flake'? Do they really expect everyone else in the country to understand what is presumably a reference to class a drugs? We're not all gutter class drug addicts you know "la's". Some of us even have jobs. Do you know what one them is do ya? Eh mate eh mate eh mate eh mate

Edited by MooseBreath
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