PuntersAdvice Posted 1 March 2014 Share Posted 1 March 2014 PuntersAdvice Betting Log This betting log will be very selective and usually only one bet will be posted each week. This will be a medium term project that will last for a minimum of 2 years. The opening balance will be 1,000. Stake will be 5% or 10% of the current balance. Markets: win-draw-win over 2.5 goals both teams to score team to win & over 2.5 goals Prices will be taken from 6 bookmakers: Bet365 Ladbrokes Stan James William Hill BetVictor Paddy Power The leagues I will focus on are: English Premier League Spanish Primera Division German Bundesliga Italian Serie A French Ligue 1 Dutch Eredivisie Portuguese Primeira Liga Irish Premier League Norwegian Eliteserien Swedish Allsvenskan Finnish Veikkausliiga Japanese J-League USA Major League Soccer Champions League Europa League On to the opening bet of the log... English Premier League: Southampton v Liverpool -Southampton average 2.59 goals per league game (12/27 Over 2.5 Goals). -Liverpool average 3.89 goals per league game (20/27 Over 2.5 Goals). -Daniel Sturridge has scored in eight consecutive Premier League appearances. -Only four teams have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in the top flight this season (7), three of those teams are in the bottom four. -Southampton have scored in 23 of their 27 league matches this season. -There have been a total of 49 goals scored in each teams last 6 league matches. -There have been over 2.5 goals scored in fifteen of Liverpool’s last seventeen games in the Premier League. -Liverpool have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last ten away matches in the Premier League. -Defensive midfielder Wanyama is absent for Southampton. Bet: Over 2.5 Goals Stake: 50 Bookmaker: BetVictor Odds: 1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The People's Hero Posted 1 March 2014 Share Posted 1 March 2014 Will be interested to follow but believe having your stake as a percentage of the pot is a mistake. Prefer (personally) level stakes and regular withdrawal of profits... Anyway, best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salieri Posted 1 March 2014 Share Posted 1 March 2014 I've already got a tenner on both teams to score, might whack another on over 2.5, seems decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1FOX Posted 2 March 2014 Share Posted 2 March 2014 Good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 2 March 2014 Author Share Posted 2 March 2014 Thanks folks. I've already got a tenner on both teams to score, might whack another on over 2.5, seems decent. I kept track of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score for each of my bets over a 2 year period and while the sample size is too small to really hold a lot of significance the over 2.5 goal market was 4% more profitable. To put it another way you lose one correct score (1-1) but you gain a lot more and most of the time the odds are better on the over 2.5 goals market when you are not dealing with the likes of Bayern Munich or Barcelona. One stat to contradict this is the last few seasons in the English Premier League the most common scoreline has been 1-1. To each their own. The only time I favour BTTS is Real Madrid v Barcelona if I can get 1.44+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 3 March 2014 Author Share Posted 3 March 2014 Southampton 0-3 Liverpool Balance: 1,037 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goose2010 Posted 3 March 2014 Share Posted 3 March 2014 Southampton 0-3 Liverpool Balance: 1,037 so you put £1000 on to win £37? is that what you are saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 3 March 2014 Share Posted 3 March 2014 so you put £1000 on to win £37? is that what you are saying? No, he started with a grand, put 50 on that result and won £37. So basically his balance is £87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goose2010 Posted 3 March 2014 Share Posted 3 March 2014 No, he started with a grand, put 50 on that result and won £37. So basically his balance is £87. oh ok that makes more sense to be honest he is playing the long game I see. Would join in but i get greedy with better and end up losing everything on 2/1 shot or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 3 March 2014 Author Share Posted 3 March 2014 More or less. It will become more obvious with a few more bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 15 March 2014 Author Share Posted 15 March 2014 English Premier League: Everton v Cardiff City -Everton have scored over 1.5 goals in 8 home games this season. -Cardiff have conceded over 1.5 goals in 9 away games this season. -Everton have won 6 from their last 7 home league games. -Everton are undefeated in 21 of their last 22 home matches in the Premier League. -Cardiff have won just one away game all season, lost their last 7, and they have failed to score in eight of their last 10 away matches. -Cardiff have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League. -Center-back Ben Turner could be doubtful for Cardiff. Bet: Everton To Score Over 1.5 Goals Stake: 52 Bookmaker: StanJames Odds: 1.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bert Posted 15 March 2014 Share Posted 15 March 2014 Just for clarification: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 15 March 2014 Author Share Posted 15 March 2014 English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury -Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins. -Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets. -Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games. -Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh). Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap Stake: 104 Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 1.475 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 15 March 2014 Author Share Posted 15 March 2014 Bert - What you have posted has no relation to my bet, in fact it is from a different bookmaker who I have never heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bert Posted 15 March 2014 Share Posted 15 March 2014 Bert - What you have posted has no relation to my bet, in fact it is from a different bookmaker who I have never heard of.I know. I could've sworn I posted it in the betting thread in relation to the bet bright offer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theessexfox Posted 15 March 2014 Share Posted 15 March 2014 The Everton one came through last minute... Wolves drew 0-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScouseFox Posted 15 March 2014 Share Posted 15 March 2014 two winners from 3 both in injury time. yet to decide if you're good at this or just one lucky bastard . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 16 March 2014 Author Share Posted 16 March 2014 English Premier League: Man Utd v Liverpool -Liverpool have scored at least 3 goals in their last 4 matches in the Premier League. -Liverpool have won their last 4 matches in the Premier League. -Liverpool have been superb in attack, however, and may take a lead into the break having scored 27 more goals in the first half of league matches this season than their hosts. -Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 league matches, scoring 20 goals and have lost just 4 away league games this season. -Man Utd have lost or drawn 50% of their league matches. -Man Utd have to consider their match against Olympiakos who have just won their domestic league and have a 2 goal advantage in the Champions League and more than likely Man Utd will have to win the CL to be in the competition next season. -Fellani is starting and is far too slow against Liverpools front 6. Liverpool: Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Flanagan, Gerrard, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Suarez, Sturridge Man Utd: De Gea, Rafael, Jones, Vidic, Evra, Mata, Fellaini, Carrick, Januzaj, Rooney, van Persie Bet: Liverpool To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) Stake: 96 Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 1.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 16 March 2014 Author Share Posted 16 March 2014 English Premier League: Tottenham v Arsenal -We will round off this weeks bets with the last game in the Premier League between two local teams teams who both have a host of injuries however Tottenham don't have many top quality replacements unlike Arsenal. -Arsenal missing: Diaby, Walcott, Ozil, Ramsey. -Tottenham missing: Lamela, Chiriches, Capoue, Dawson, Dembele. -Tottenham are on a bad run having lost on Thursday to Benfica and are 6 points behind Arsenal in the race for a champions league place having played 1 game more. -Arsenal have won both meetings this season. -Tottenham have conceded 5 goals in each of their home games against Man City and Liverpool and will again be playing with a slightly unusual formation against one of the most technically proficient teams in the league and should be pinned in their own half for much of the game with a lineup that looks to be trying to play counter attacking football which they simply don't have the pace for against this Arsenal side. Tottenham: Lloris; Naughton, Kaboul, Vertonghen, Rose; Sandro; Townsend, Bentaleb, Eriksen, Chadli; Adebayor. Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Arteta, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud. Bet: Arsenal To Win Or Draw (Double Chance) Stake: 54 Bookmaker: Boylesports Odds: 1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salieri Posted 16 March 2014 Share Posted 16 March 2014 I put Liverpool win or draw and Arsenal win or draw in a double on this morning to just over double my money. Surely nothing can go wrong now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 16 March 2014 Author Share Posted 16 March 2014 I put Liverpool win or draw and Arsenal win or draw in a double on this morning to just over double my money. Surely nothing can go wrong now 2 minutes into the match and we are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 16 March 2014 Author Share Posted 16 March 2014 Everton 2-1 Cardiff City Wolves 0-0 Shrewsbury Man Utd 0-3 Liverpool Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal Balance: 1,037 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Churchill Posted 17 March 2014 Share Posted 17 March 2014 I have seen something similar to this on Facebook, they start with £25 and aim to hit £1000 in so many bets so basically you stake your whole balance on every bet that you do. I have seen it done quite a few times unfortunately when I wasn't following it! I think the idea is to be patient and look for nailed on bets with good odds, I know nothing is never nailed on and that's why it is gambling but 9 times out of 10 Madrid will beat the likes of Valencia at home for example. If you can afford to its worth a go sometimes I tend to do my own challenges if I think the bet looks a bit risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 17 March 2014 Author Share Posted 17 March 2014 I did those type of challenges years ago when I was starting out with a small bankroll and they are a bad idea and almost always end quickly in the first couple of weeks. I have built up the bankroll to an amount now where I will make a lot more money over a year betting small percentages on singles rather than the all or bust approach. I eventually realised that the best way to do things if you have a very small bankroll is to start with that, bet an appropriate amount and each week add a bit more money to the pool from your disposable income and over a year or two you will have a lot more money (99.9% of the time) than if you do the usual 10/1 5 fold accumulators which is where the bookmakers make most of their profit. Either you bet for fun with small stakes and don't really care about the outcome so long as you get a bit of enjoyment out of the bet or you become patient and disciplined and you will make a profit. Once you see the bankroll grow month after month the discipline becomes less of a problem and when you have something in mind such as i will grow the bankroll to £x and use that for a holiday then you will take things more professionally and those moments when you see a 'sure thing' and want to bet everything on it can be passed by as you are thinking about the holiday you will lose and not just about numbers on a screen from your online bookie account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Churchill Posted 17 March 2014 Share Posted 17 March 2014 I did those type of challenges years ago when I was starting out with a small bankroll and they are a bad idea and almost always end quickly in the first couple of weeks. I have built up the bankroll to an amount now where I will make a lot more money over a year betting small percentages on singles rather than the all or bust approach. I eventually realised that the best way to do things if you have a very small bankroll is to start with that, bet an appropriate amount and each week add a bit more money to the pool from your disposable income and over a year or two you will have a lot more money (99.9% of the time) than if you do the usual 10/1 5 fold accumulators which is where the bookmakers make most of their profit. Either you bet for fun with small stakes and don't really care about the outcome so long as you get a bit of enjoyment out of the bet or you become patient and disciplined and you will make a profit. Once you see the bankroll grow month after month the discipline becomes less of a problem and when you have something in mind such as i will grow the bankroll to £x and use that for a holiday then you will take things more professionally and those moments when you see a 'sure thing' and want to bet everything on it can be passed by as you are thinking about the holiday you will lose and not just about numbers on a screen from your online bookie account. That's true but majority of them only do singles, I agree though staking your whole balance is risky because one bad game and that's it you've got to start again but I tend to bank my original stake when I double it so I am playing with the bookies money so to speak. I can see where your coming from though but not everyone can afford to deposit such high amounts so say you start with £10 and put a £1 here n there your not going to make much of a profit if you stick to favourites so unless you do a double or treble you may get a decent return, on the other hand if you can afford to deposit a high amount then its a good technique as £20-£30 on a dead cert double would give you a good return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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