^ Leeds lined up in a 4231 against Huddersfield (and Southampton). Notice that Joel Piroe actually plays as a number 10 for them, with Rutter as their main striker, though the two sometimes interchange.

^ Interestingly, they went 442 against Stoke, a match that they lost.

^ The average position of Leeds players against Southampton. A fairly classical 4231 shape, though it looked like they were trying to target Ryan Manning, Southampton's inverted fullback, in this match.

^ A look at Leeds results and xG / xGA across all games. Some notable ones are that they beat Ipswich, but stats wise were a bit lucky. They lost to Stoke but deserved to win, and were fairly comprehensively beaten by Southampton.

Thoughts and Analysis

• Leeds tend to play 4231, though occasionally play 442.
• Managed by Daniel Farke, their style of play is stereotypically modern German in style:
  • Reliant on Possession
  • Use width, primarily from their full-backs that bomb on.
  • Rely on quick transitions, with lots of verticality with passing through the centre of the pitch.
  • Gegenpressing when out of possession to turn the ball over high up the pitch.
• Leeds are one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in the division. On their day unplayable, on their off-days, they don't look like they know how to play!
  • Their forward options are fantastic, and an argument could be made to say they are better than ours. Piroe, Rutter, James and Summerville have been starting recently, but they also have Gnotto (Everton bid 30M for him in the summer) and an out of form Patrick Bamford on the bench.
    • All of their forwards are incredibly rapid. Summerville and Gnoto are skilful and can beat their man.
    • Any sloppy passes that are stolen by their forwards will transition into attacking positions at breakneck speed, and they have better quality than Sunderland. Both James and Summerville scored twice each against Huddersfield.
    • Rutter has been a revelation for them this season. He and Piroe often interchange and his high workrate plus technical quality have stood out. This is a player we might have to go man-to-man with when defending.
  • They have a solid double-pivot of Glen Kamara (has played in a Europa League final) and Ethan Ampadu (plays for Wales, ex-Chelsea, European experience).
    • These two aren't the best on the ball, but are solid and have good ball winning stats.
    • This is an area where I think we will have a lot of success. Southampton were able to play through and around their midfield, and on paper Winks, KDH and Ricardo should be better than these two. I think Ndidi is a big miss though.
  • Defensively and between the sticks, Leeds are really suspect, as shown in their last Premier League era.
    • They've already made quite a few comical errors and are often caught ball-watching.
    • Their goalkeepers are good with their feet, but flap at the ball a lot. If we test their keeper, we can score. Look at the Southampton game where Meslier makes a meal of both of Adam Armstrong's goals.

This game is hard to call. If I had to pick one team in the Championship that are best suited to beat us, it's Leeds. Not only is their squad quality high, but they play the best counter-style to ours: high-pressing, fast transitions with FAST and skilful players in wide areas. They also have been given the optimal gameplan to follow by looking at the Sunderland game. Do what they did, do it better, and you can get something against us, maybe all 3 points. But all that said, you can't ignore that already this season they have had several poor performances, including a few where they don't seem to have turned up in at all. The Southampton game is also very telling, where they were soundly beaten, and that was when Russel Martin was under extreme pressure. In the end they have 53% of the ball, but that is mainly based on the second half when they were already 3-0 down and Southampton were seeing the game out.

In the last two games the biggest area of concern I have has been our sloppy passing. Teams aren't making chances against us, we are giving chances away to them. If we do that in this match, we will pay! However, even if it happens once or even twice, Leeds are a team that will give you chances themselves and we have a lot of quality up top too. But given that Leeds are away from home and there is less emphasis on them to win, plus their vocal away support, this could really suit them and more than any other game, this is one where I could see us dropping points. It would better suit us to play them away than at home.

The key duel is most likely going to be James Justin against Summerville, as I expect JJ to play at right back for this one to deal with him. I would personally put Faes in too, who is faster than Coady or Souttar to deal with Dan James, who is less skilful, but one of the fastest players in the division. In fact for that reason, perhaps Faes will deal with Summerville instead of JJ.

Finally, Leeds will 100% target Winks and Ricardo man-for-man as all teams seem to do against us now. Piroe and Rutter I expect will pay these a lot of attention. However, as Southampton showed, if we beat that press, their team opens up, and that's something we can exploit.

Sunderland are one of the more interesting teams to watch in the Championship, and I've had my eye on them all season given they made it to the play-offs last time round, losing to eventual winners Luton. They have a very interesting philosophy at the club, almost using our model but in a Championship version. IE lots of really promising up and comers who they develop and sell on for a lot of money, with an astute and experienced manager in Tony Mowbray. This makes them both exciting and prone to collapse in equal measure, they play good stuff but are really inconsistent.

• They play a mixture of 4141 and 4231, but sometimes even go 442. They even played Jobe Bellingham as a false 9 against Southampton where they won 5-0, which they might well try again.
• They play good stuff, playing out from the back and having a good possession style, they rank 3rd in terms of possession in the division so far.
• They are an interesting case where they have the top scorer in the division in Jack Clarke (left wing), but none of their strikers have scored yet. So a bit like Leicester, they really rely on their wide forwards and midfield players.
• They typically play two hard-working box-to-box players in Bellingham and Ekwah with Dan Neil (who was suspended against Stoke) as the sitter.
  • I'll be interested to see what they do here, a lot of teams try to go man for man on Ricardo and Winks, but I feel like the youthful nature of their team might mean this could backfire, and we play could play around them.
  • Jobe Bellingham is pretty good IMO. Obviously hard not to compare him to his brother; he's not as good at the same age but he is good. Will for sure be a Premier League player one day. Hard-working, technical, good on the ball and a great engine.
• What they might do, which I have seen them do a few times, is to play 442 and try to kill the opposition on the transition. The biggest warning I would give about this team (and Leeds) is they have players that can exploit a turnover and getting in behind, like on the weekend where Hermansen saved us. Their players are young, full of energy and are fast, and they were ruthless against Southampton at doing this, where they could have won by more.

This is a team that I think could catch us on the break, but equally I think they won't be able to deal with 90 minutes of relentless pressure. With young players, they are more likely to lose concentration at the wrong moment and for it to cost them. So I think this will be another game where we have to work hard but eventually break them down.

I think this will be an enjoyable game and will feel more like a Premier League game rather than a Championship one. They might be a bit more like Brentford in the way they play, in terms of trying to kill us on the transition.