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The Politics Thread

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55 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Zac didn't think that one through did he!  There is a message here for any MPs who campaigned to remain and might be thinking of voting against their constituency should article 50 come to a vote.

 

Goldsmith was a Brexiter, and this was clearly an anti-Brexit vote.

 

What I find interesting - and hopeful - is that it shows tactical voting to be a viable method of opposing the Tories.

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18 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Goldsmith was a Brexiter, and this was clearly an anti-Brexit vote.

 

What I find interesting - and hopeful - is that it shows tactical voting to be a viable method of opposing the Tories.

Yeah he is an idiot, his constituency was over 70% remain and he didn't think he would get punished so soon after the referendum. Clown.

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Stunning result in Richmond. Fertile ground for the Lib Dems (Lib Dem seat 1997-2010, very anti-Brexit)....even so, Zac had a 23,000 majority 18 months ago! :o

 

I wondered if his nasty, borderline racist campaign to be London Mayor had been a factor, but the Guardian has an on-the-ground report suggesting that wasn't the case. It seems that Zac is still popular on a personal level, it's just that the Heathrow issue was a non-runner (not least as the Lib Dem also opposed the runway) - compared to strong anti-Brexit sentiment.

 

Does that end any prospect of an early general election? Too risky for the Tories?

In turn, does that mean the Tories will have to compromise on "Hard Brexit"?

 

They've been sounding a bit more open to compromise recently - and might lack the parliamentary support to force a Hard Brexit through, particularly in the wake of this result. PIcking up @Jon the Hat's point, though, that can work two ways. If they're intent on forcing through Hard Brexit (out of the single market, no compromise on free movement), they might be better off going for an early election: I'm sure they could live with losing a few Richmonds if this was more than counterbalanced by taking various pro-Brexit Labour seats in struggling areas, while both Labour & UKIP are in a feeble state.

 

On the other hand, they probably only have a brief window of opportunity for an early election (before March, presumably?). If they rely on their current tiny majority, they might have to compromise to get Brexit through parliament. Particularly if the mood shifts a bit against Brexit - quite possible if economic problems arise, negotiations look difficult etc. Brexit supporters would do well to avoid getting too triumphalist over their victory, thinking they can ride rough-shod over everyone else. Almost half the nation voted against ANY Brexit, and there'll be a significant number of Leave voters who'd like a compromise to stay in the single market etc.

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45 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Goldsmith was a Brexiter, and this was clearly an anti-Brexit vote.

 

What I find interesting - and hopeful - is that it shows tactical voting to be a viable method of opposing the Tories.

I think what Jon was trying to say was this is a warning to all the remain mp's that are in brexit voting areas that they shouldn't oppose brexit, because if a brexit supporter can be so easily ousted by a novice donkey of the lib dems in a remain area, then the same can happen to the remainers in brexit areas. 

 

And there really is only an opposition to the tories if they allow one, if they follow through with what they say they would win a GE by the proverbial mile. 

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3 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

I think what Jon was trying to say was this is a warning to all the remain mp's that are in brexit voting areas that they shouldn't oppose brexit, because if a brexit supporter can be so easily ousted by a novice donkey of the lib dems in a remain area, then the same can happen to the remainers in brexit areas. 

 

And there really is only an opposition to the tories if they allow one, if they follow through with what they say they would win a GE by the proverbial mile. 

Indeed.  Read a few comments this morning that the Lib Dems were campaigning really hard, whereas Goldsmith seemed to assume he didn't need to.  A fitting end to his stroppy exit from the Tories.  Also read a comment that if you force a by election you should not be allowed to stand yourself which I thought had merit.

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29 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Indeed.  Read a few comments this morning that the Lib Dems were campaigning really hard, whereas Goldsmith seemed to assume he didn't need to.  A fitting end to his stroppy exit from the Tories.  Also read a comment that if you force a by election you should not be allowed to stand yourself which I thought had merit.

Quitting over a single issue and forcing a by election, when his main rivals share the same side on that single issue, was one of the dumbest moves he has made as a politician (and that is some feat).

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56 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Yeah he is an idiot, his constituency was over 70% remain and he didn't think he would get punished so soon after the referendum. Clown.

 

Not sure that's fair. I don't like the bloke, but he'd promised to trigger a by-election over Heathrow long before the EU referendum. In 2009, according to this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35037555

So, quite honourable of him to keep his word - at risk to his own career. He'd have been slated if he'd reneged on his promise.

 

On a separate point.....

Whenever there's any discussion about raising taxes on the rich, someone pops up to object on the grounds that all the rich, talented people will leave the country.

Well, the areas of England voting Remain were mostly those populated by the highly-educated and high earners....

So, could I be the first to say: the Govt must compromise on Brexit or all the rich, talented people (the only people who matter) will leave the country? :whistle:

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I believe Richmond was over 70% remain at the referendum and the Libs got just less than 50% of the vote, if it was another referendum on Brexit then the remain vote went down. I don't think we can read too much into the result.

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2 hours ago, Webbo said:

I believe Richmond was over 70% remain at the referendum and the Libs got just less than 50% of the vote, if it was another referendum on Brexit then the remain vote went down. I don't think we can read too much into the result.

I would say it's quite obvious that in 18 months the significant swing from con to lib dem, has to be in part to do with the referendum.

However as Jon said earlier, they're are plenty of constuencies that will do the reverse should they get betrayed by their MPs.

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6 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Indeed.  Read a few comments this morning that the Lib Dems were campaigning really hard, whereas Goldsmith seemed to assume he didn't need to.  A fitting end to his stroppy exit from the Tories.  Also read a comment that if you force a by election you should not be allowed to stand yourself which I thought had merit.

They were campaigning really hard, I was getting at least 3 leaflets a day for the last month from their supporters.  What annoyed me was the amount of times their canvassers knocked on my door even though I put a note up saying not to as I was sleeping due to working night shifts, and when they got a Fuch off they were offended by the hurtful language.  I don't think it was a total case of Zac thinking he didn't need to win, more that the Lib Drones put their whole party and financing behind this. 

 

I'm gutted to lose him as he is a good local MP, he cares about the area which is what's important to me.  The Lib Dems are only using this as a way to get back in power on the back of Brexit, which was an individual vote not as a constituency.  The Lib Dems logic was that a Remain supporting constituency should have a Remain supporting MP.  If that was the case then Leave would have 150 more constituency's than Remain.

1 hour ago, Webbo said:

I believe Richmond was over 70% remain at the referendum and the Libs got just less than 50% of the vote, if it was another referendum on Brexit then the remain vote went down. I don't think we can read too much into the result.

The by-election had a turnout of only 53%, Lib Dems won 50% of that which means they represent 25% of the Borough, with around 23% wanting Zac to represent.  Not as an impressive shift in politics or a true representation of Richmond or the Country as Farron believes.  He really annoyed me this morning on Sky talking about the victory yet failing to mention Richmond once and what they will do for the area.

 

Let's see how she handles the job when the Tim Farron show rolls back out of town and she has real issues to deal with rather than Brexit.

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4 hours ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

She! Julia!'s an obvious idiot but Julia Hartley-Brewer is a complete cow.

Olney was hung out to dry! Julia Hartley-Brewer is an extremely able interviewer,, and calved bloody great holes in that interview. Like most Lib. Dems, these days, Olney couldn't answer a basic question, and had to be saved from the slaughter.

 

What a fine MP she will make.

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The far right loses a proper election in austria but Italy allow another referendum to become one of these "anti-establishment" votes and get destroyed. I can see European politicians doing everything they can to avoid referendums from now on.

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3 hours ago, foxy boxing said:

they really should have sorted all the legal stuff on Brexit before the referendum result and not after. makes a mockery of politics in this country and looks like politicians can't do anything right.

Better to resolve the issue before rather than after triggering Article 50.

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