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Guest MattP

The Politics Thread

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10 minutes ago, MattP said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/20/exclusive-labour-set-lose-copeland-by-election-partys-canvass/

 

If true it's surely the beginning of the end for Corbyn, you can't lose seats like this and then carry on as if nothing is wrong.

 

 

Unless they run an exceptionally good local campaign (or unless the Tories run a very poor one), I'd expect Labour to lose Copeland.

They only had a majority of 2500 or something last time, didn't they? It would be in line with the national polls for them to lose this - with Brexit and nuclear policy liable to increase the likelihood (Brexit-voting constituency including Sellafield).

The Tories are probably at their zenith now, before any doubts about the economy or Brexit can set in. Would still be a dire result for Labour, of course.

 

Could Corbyn survive it? I suspect he could, having been enthusiastically re-elected less than 6 months ago. Excuses would be made about the nature of the constituency.

If they lose Copeland and then lose Stoke Central or come close to losing it, he might be under more pressure. Even then, though, would his opponents risk a challenge so soon?

With hindsight, it was a massive strategic error to challenge him last year. If he was now heading for 2 years unchallenged at the helm with such a poor record, it would be easier to challenge him now.

 

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22 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Unless they run an exceptionally good local campaign (or unless the Tories run a very poor one), I'd expect Labour to lose Copeland.

They only had a majority of 2500 or something last time, didn't they? It would be in line with the national polls for them to lose this - with Brexit and nuclear policy liable to increase the likelihood (Brexit-voting constituency including Sellafield).

The Tories are probably at their zenith now, before any doubts about the economy or Brexit can set in. Would still be a dire result for Labour, of course.

 

Could Corbyn survive it? I suspect he could, having been enthusiastically re-elected less than 6 months ago. Excuses would be made about the nature of the constituency.

If they lose Copeland and then lose Stoke Central or come close to losing it, he might be under more pressure. Even then, though, would his opponents risk a challenge so soon?

With hindsight, it was a massive strategic error to challenge him last year. If he was now heading for 2 years unchallenged at the helm with such a poor record, it would be easier to challenge him now.

 

Maybe, although I don't really see how any excuse could be made for losing a seat they have held since the 1930's in a by-election, it would surely tell even the most ardent Corbynista that they simply aren't winning an seats with him in charge that aren't either London based or rock solid Labour like Bolsover.

 

He miught hang on if they lose that, but he'll surely walk if they lose Stoke as well? It's a seat that was a 20,000 majority for Labour in 1997, a seat like Stoke should be as safe Labour as you can get, if they lose that they are heading for the worst result in the history of the party in the next General Election. Whatever problems the Tories have, it would show their voters North of Watford would rather flock to UKIP than vote for him.

 

I still think they'll hold both, cling onto Copeland and win by a reduced majority in Stoke. And that's probably long term the worst result that could happen to Labour.

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On 1/19/2017 at 18:58, MattP said:

Yep, I don't like McGuinness for obvious reasons but this couldn't come at a worse time.

 

The elections in Northern Ireland coming up are going to need some serious diplomacy and reconciliation in the aftermath. 

 

A good start made by Ian Paisley Jr. 

 

Full credit to him for this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-38686420 (Includes a generous video interview)

 

"Democratic Unionist Party MP Ian Paisley praises Martin McGuinness, former IRA leader turned politician, who is retiring from front-line politics. Mr Paisley, son of former first minister Dr Ian Paisley, said Mr McGuinness's "remarkable journey not only saved lives, but made the lives of countless people better". Mr McGuinness forged a friendship with the late Dr Paisley when they shared power at Stormont, despite previously being sworn enemies. When Dr Paisley died, Mr McGuinness said he had lost "a friend".

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

 

Could Corbyn survive it? I suspect he could ..

 

 

Goodo ! ...        With all the doom and gloom going on I need something light, fluffy and amusing in the papers to put a smile on my face when I'm eating my breakfast ....    He does that in spades !  :)

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7 minutes ago, MattP said:

Maybe, although I don't really see how any excuse could be made for losing a seat they have held since the 1930's in a by-election, it would surely tell even the most ardent Corbynista that they simply aren't winning an seats with him in charge that aren't either London based or rock solid Labour like Bolsover.

 

He miught hang on if they lose that, but he'll surely walk if they lose Stoke as well? It's a seat that was a 20,000 majority for Labour in 1997, a seat like Stoke should be as safe Labour as you can get, if they lose that they are heading for the worst result in the history of the party in the next General Election. Whatever problems the Tories have, it would show their voters North of Watford would rather flock to UKIP than vote for him.

 

I still think they'll hold both, cling onto Copeland and win by a reduced majority in Stoke. And that's probably long term the worst result that could happen to Labour.

 

 

In normal times, I'd completely agree with you. But these aren't normal times in the Labour Party. Some Corbynistas think they're on some sort of long march towards a different sort of politics and won't mind if their "inevitable triumph and transformation of politics" takes some time. Many others don't even take the thought process that far: it doesn't go much further than "our ideas are morally superior, we shall smugly enjoy proclaiming them and isn't it great that our people now control Labour!"

 

I don't have any local info, but would expect Labour to lose Copeland to the Tories, possibly just hang on in Stoke ahead of the Tories and a resurgent UKIP (though a defeat to either wouldn't surprise me).

 

If they lose both seats, Corbyn might go - but, providing they can sort the rule book out (I'm sure they will), he might just be replaced by another Leftist ultra like McDonnell. McDonnell is a bit brighter than Corbyn so would probably come up with one or two strategies and the presentation would be better.....but I can't see his "charm" winning the public over either (would be less fluffy and amusing entertainment for @Countryfox, unfortunately!). As a Soft Leftist, I agree with your final statement - two narrow victories is about the worst possible result for Labour. I'm afraid that I hope they lose both, though preferably not to UKIP. Two narrow Tory wins with a surge in people switching to the Lib Dems, then Corbyn overthrown would be my forlorn hope.   

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24 minutes ago, Rincewind said:

i rest my case

Why does he need the media to talk him up? Maybe he's getting bad press because he's shit. He needs to put himself out there to the wider mainstream media to sell himself in a good light to the wider public. What's the use in cosying up to the small media outlets who already worship him which are only read by people who worship him? He's not some small fry activist trying to get together some merry band of protesters together to affect some local issue, he's leading a major political party chasing votes to become leader of the country. 

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6 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

Sorry to hear that Alf ...    being cack handed is bad enough but to suffer from impotency as well is just plain cruel ...

 

(I'll leave now while I'm ahead ...)   :wave:

 

Yes, you can stand, er, tall and erect and leave now with your head held high.

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22 hours ago, Facecloth said:

Why does he need the media to talk him up? Maybe he's getting bad press because he's shit. He needs to put himself out there to the wider mainstream media to sell himself in a good light to the wider public. What's the use in cosying up to the small media outlets who already worship him which are only read by people who worship him? He's not some small fry activist trying to get together some merry band of protesters together to affect some local issue, he's leading a major political party chasing votes to become leader of the country. 

Can you honestly see papers like the Mail giving him good press? Of course the ones that support him give good reports in the same way that press that support the Tories and establishment give bad reviews. While they focus on the ones inside his own party that are against him and ignore the positive side of him there will be a negative view of him by the public that only see the mainstream media. It does take a little searching to find the positive things though that are missed. It is the way politics works.

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As Jeremy Corbyn is seemingly dead or tied up in his shed and seeing as I can't recall one of his key policies, I thought I'd attempt to track them down when I stumbled upon this;

Quote

The section on health and the NHS contains 39,531 words, which would take the average person around three hours and 50 minutes to read

"You don't know what you're doing!"

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12 minutes ago, Rincewind said:

Can you honestly see papers like the Mail giving him good press? Of course the ones that support him give good reports in the same way that press that support the Tories and establishment give bad reviews. While they focus on the ones inside his own party that are against him and ignore the positive side of him there will be a negative view of him by the public that only see the mainstream media. It does take a little searching to find the positive things though that are missed. It is the way politics works.

Why should I have to search for it? Like I said he's the leader of a major national party, he needs to put himself out there. He needs to change public perception of himself to convince people to vote for his party not hide away in an echo chamber only talking to those that agree with him and won't criticise him. He may do a lot of little things that are great, but that's not what being a major party leader is about, it about thinking of policies that will improve the country and its people and getting out to the wider public and trying to convince them to follow you and vote for you. 

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11 minutes ago, Rincewind said:

Can you honestly see papers like the Mail giving him good press? Of course the ones that support him give good reports in the same way that press that support the Tories and establishment give bad reviews. While they focus on the ones inside his own party that are against him and ignore the positive side of him there will be a negative view of him by the public that only see the mainstream media. It does take a little searching to find the positive things though that are missed. It is the way politics works.

Leaving press opinion aside (which now has become indifference anyway rather than negative as he becomes more irrelevant).

 

Do you think he is doing a good job of leading the opposition?

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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2697700/stoke-central-by-election-ukip-paul-nuttall-labour-tristram-hunt/

 

 

Quote

 

UKIP leader Paul Nuttall is on course to win the Stoke by-election by TEN POINTS from Labour – it was claimed.

Brexit-backing campaign group Labour Leave said it believe UKIP would take the seat with 35 per cent of the vote.

Labour is on course to come second on 25 per cent and the Tories third on 10 per cent.

The findings come with Labour due to announce their candidate for the by-election on Wednesday.

Labour Leave warned that if the party lose Stoke, up to FIFTY seats could fall to “our opponents”.

 

Personally I find this hard to believe, but if Labour did lose this by a margin on that scale, it would have to be the end for Corbyn.

 

Bookies have it as a two horse race now, Labour 4/5, UKIP 11/10 - The Tories won't be bothering to make any sort of effort to win it.

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3 hours ago, MattP said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2697700/stoke-central-by-election-ukip-paul-nuttall-labour-tristram-hunt/

 

 

Personally I find this hard to believe, but if Labour did lose this by a margin on that scale, it would have to be the end for Corbyn.

 

Bookies have it as a two horse race now, Labour 4/5, UKIP 11/10 - The Tories won't be bothering to make any sort of effort to win it.

Thing is, would anybody else want the leadership if he did go? Whoever leads the party they're still going face the same problems of their supporters wanting diametrically opposed things.

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14 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Thing is, would anybody else want the leadership if he did go? Whoever leads the party they're still going face the same problems of their supporters wanting diametrically opposite things.

Only one person for the job, Diane Abbott. 

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1 minute ago, KingGTF said:

A friend invited me to an event at the Indian embassy last night for Republic Day. Met Emily Thornberry and found it to be a thoroughly difficult experience

 

Did she take it badly when you invited her into the back of your white van? :ph34r: 

 

Do tell more. I don't think she frequents Foxes Talk (or is she MooseBreath under a pseoudonym?). 

 

In all seriousness, I can imagine she'd be an awkward person to deal with. She seems to lack humour and subtlety (like a lot of politicians, to be fair).

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10 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Did she take it badly when you invited her into the back of your white van? :ph34r: 

 

Do tell more. I don't think she frequents Foxes Talk (or is she MooseBreath under a pseoudonym?). 

 

In all seriousness, I can imagine she'd be an awkward person to deal with. She seems to lack humour and subtlety (like a lot of politicians, to be fair).

No wonder she was awkward, she went to the Indian Embassy, i bet she was frightened of being groped or raped, or chucked out as an out caste!:P

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49 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Another Labour front bencher has resigned the the shadow cabinet.

Poor Corbyn, the one sensible decision he makes in 2017 and it causes resignations.

 

The idea Labour could be a serious option for government whilst handing over and then denying the decision on the European Union isn't possible. What they have to do is allow the process and the battle for the type of Britain they want afterwards. 

 

He's got this one right.

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6 hours ago, MattP said:

Poor Corbyn, the one sensible decision he makes in 2017 and it causes resignations.

 

The idea Labour could be a serious option for government whilst handing over and then denying the decision on the European Union isn't possible. What they have to do is allow the process and the battle for the type of Britain they want afterwards. 

 

He's got this one right.

As a Benn disciple everyone knows Corbyn is completely opposed to the undemocratic institutions of the EU. For all their flaws Corbyn and McDonnell know that they may disagree with the Tories but they respect the electorates decision to vote for them and implement their policies, unlike the unelected EU commission who only respect their friends at the Rothschilds bank.

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