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davieG

Post Brexit Autumn Statement 2016

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11 hours ago, Barky said:

Don't think I'm going to be convinced by reports sponsored by the likes of Nike mate, and the world of academia isn't exactly representative, but fair play, I respect your viewpoint.

 

I'm an engineer myself, and have to travel with kit all around the country, I reckon you might see my point of view more clearly when you're doing the same yourself in a couple of years :)

Yeah I'm with you on that, pedestrianising areas and making places unreachable by vehicles might be good for the consumer on a experience level, but as high street prices skyrocket due to the cost of out of hour deliveries and out of hour minor works. People will move to the cheaper out of town retail parks, so it just loses its affect.

I refuse to work in these retail shops overnight, unless I am paid a premium (3x pay) for it, it screws my whole week up doing one or two nights then back on days.

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For those that think HS2 is still a provisional idea yet to commence and be confirmed. It's well underway. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/570548/161117_Contract_Opp_Table.pdf

 

http://www.epworthbells.co.uk/news/regional/hs2-steel-will-be-at-least-95-british-made-indicates-transport-secretary-1-8243984

 

Given the huge scale of money and procurement involved from the top to the bottom, I would hope that significant penalties will be in place for delays, poor performance, or non-performance. History shows however, that jobs for the boys will happen on a project this big, and significant delays and losses are highly likely.

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An extra £1.3bn is to be spent on improving Britain's roads, Chancellor Philip Hammond will say in his first Autumn Statement.

Most of the money will be for cutting congestion and upgrades to local roads and public transport networks.

The Treasury said investment in infrastructure and innovation to boost long-term economic growth would be "at the heart" of Wednesday's statement.

But Labour said many schemes previously promised were yet to be built.

The funding for roads is said to be part of a wider package of pledges for infrastructure projects, amounting to billions of pounds.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38041466

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5 hours ago, davieG said:

An extra £1.3bn is to be spent on improving Britain's roads, Chancellor Philip Hammond will say in his first Autumn Statement.

Most of the money will be for cutting congestion and upgrades to local roads and public transport networks.

The Treasury said investment in infrastructure and innovation to boost long-term economic growth would be "at the heart" of Wednesday's statement.

But Labour said many schemes previously promised were yet to be built.

The funding for roads is said to be part of a wider package of pledges for infrastructure projects, amounting to billions of pounds.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38041466

In other words, 'We're planning on implementing more 'smart motorways' to generate income. This investment will pay for itself.

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10 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Stupid tax then hey!  Sounds ok to me :)

 

 

Basically the money will go on traffic flow schemes. But miles and miles of motorways will be coned off without a sign of construction taking place. What joy as lucrative contracts are dished out as its milked it for all its worth. It'll be a joy!

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22 minutes ago, sphericalfox said:

Basically the money will go on traffic flow schemes. But miles and miles of motorways will be coned off without a sign of construction taking place. What joy as lucrative contracts are dished out as its milked it for all its worth. It'll be a joy!

A motorway is coned off for reasons other than construction. The County Surveyors Dept may need to inspect or survey the road surface or or bridges. That is done so they know what to ask contractors to bid on if repairs are needed in part or wholesale.

 

All projects are put for competitive bid and penalties or bonuses are paid on the duration of the project. When I was working on motorway projects in the UK the penalties for going over the proposed time could be £10,000 per day per lane. Trust me, contractors would not be ****ing about and nor would the client allow it unless there was a good reason. Moreover if you completed the job ahead of schedule that lane rental money came as bonus.

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Just now, Smudge said:

A motorway is coned off for reasons other than construction. The County Surveyors Dept may need to inspect or survey the road surface or or bridges. That is done so they know what to ask contractors to bid on if repairs are needed in part or wholesale.

 

All projects are put for competitive bid and penalties or bonuses are paid on the duration of the project. When I was working on motorway projects in the UK the penalties for going over the proposed time could be £10,000 per day per lane. Trust me, contractors would not be ****ing about and nor would the client allow it unless there was a good reason. Moreover if you completed the job ahead of schedule that lane rental money came as bonus.

Are the empty diggers and heavy equipment for show? Those contracts must have never-ending deadlines. The M1 and the M62 spring to mind of examples of not quite getting it done quickly.

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15 minutes ago, sphericalfox said:

Are the empty diggers and heavy equipment for show? Those contracts must have never-ending deadlines. The M1 and the M62 spring to mind of examples of not quite getting it done quickly.

 

I can't explain why any piece of plant wasn't working but I'll offer a list of alternatives.

  • They are not excavating that day
  • It needs repair
  • The ground is too wet
  • They have found a problem and waiting for the client to decide on what to do
  • It is owned by a plant rental company and they have dropped it off early or not yet picked it up.
  • They used it yesterday and will need it two days hence, therefor it's cheaper to keep it on site rather than have it hauled off and returned.

All of these projects are bid on extremely low margins. The companies such as Aggregate Industries and Tarmac make money on the products they sell to the contracting arm. That includes the stone, asphalt concrete, and concrete products like piping.

 

Having managed many jobs I can assure you that no manager is going to be employed for long if satisfactory progress isn't made.

 

Maybe your observations are correct and there was negligent management of what you saw but that doesn't apply to the industry.

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On 20/11/2016 at 10:58, Barky said:

That's good but it's still a drop in the ocean really. 

 

Rumours that he might raise the tax free allowance, national insurance threshold and higher rate tax bracket ahead of schedule. I'm on board with all of that.

Ah I remember the days when that impacted my tax bill

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Autumn Statement 2016 summary: Key points at-a-glance

47 minutes ago

 

From the sectionUK Politics

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Philip Hammond has delivered his first Autumn Statement as chancellor. These are the key points.

Public borrowing/deficit/spending

Government finances forecast to be £122bn worse off in the period until 2021 than forecast in March's Budget

Debt will rise from 84.2% of GDP last year to 87.3% this year, peaking at 90.2% in 2017-18

Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts borrowing of £68.2bn this year, then £59bn in 2017-18, £46.5bn in 2018-19, £21.9bn in 2019-20 and £20.7bn in 2020-21

Public spending this year to be 40% of GDP - down from 45% in 2010

Departmental spending plans set out in 2015 Spending Review to remain in place

Government will meet commitments to protect budgets for key public services, defence, overseas aid and the pension "triple lock" until the end of this Parliament

The state of the economy

OBR growth forecast upgraded to 2.1% in 2016 - from 2.0% - then downgraded to 1.4% in 2017, from 2.2%

Forecast growth of 1.7% in 2018, 2.1% in 2019 and 2020 and 2% in 2021.

Government no longer seeking a budget surplus in 2019-20 - committed to returning public finances to balance "as soon as practicable"

Taxation/pay

Image copyrightPA

Income tax threshold to be raised to £11,500 in April, from £11,000 now

Higher rate income tax threshold to rise to £50,000 by the end of the Parliament

Tax savings on salary sacrifice and benefits in kind to be stopped, with exceptions for ultra-low emission cars, pensions, childcare and cycling

National Living Wage to rise from £7.20 an hour to £7.50 from April next year

Employee and employer National Insurance thresholds to be equalised at £157 per week from April 2017

Insurance premium tax to rise from 10% to 12% next June

Welfare

Universal Credit taper rate to be cut from 65% to 63% from April at a cost of £700m

No plans for further welfare savings in this Parliament

Housing

Ban on upfront fees charged by letting agents in England "as soon as possible"

£2.3bn housing infrastructure fund to help provide 100,000 new homes in high-demand areas

£1.4bn to deliver 40,000 extra affordable homes

Fuel

Image copyrightPA

Fuel duty rise cancelled for seventh year in succession - at a cost of £850m, saving average car driver £130 and van driver £350 a year

For the oil and gas sector, the Carbon Price Support capped until 2020 and business rates reductions worth £6.7bn

Transport/infrastructure/regions

Image copyrightPA

£1.1bn extra investment in English local transport networks

£220m to reduce traffic pinch points

£23bn to be spent on innovation and infrastructure over five years

£2bn per year by 2020 for research and development funding

£110m for East West Rail and commitment to deliver Oxford to Cambridge Expressway

More than £1bn for digital infrastructure and 100% business rates relief on new fibre infrastructure

£1.8bn from Local Growth Fund to English regions

Rural Rate Relief to be increased to 100%, "giving small businesses a tax break worth up to £2,900"

£7.6m for repairs to Wentworth Woodhouse, near Rotherham, said to be inspiration for Pemberley in Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice

Business

Doubling UK export funding capacity

£400m into venture capital funds through the British Business Bank to unlock £1bn in finance for growing firms

Other

Funding for 2,500 more prison officers

Reforms to compensation for whiplash to cut the cost of motor insurance

Promise to abolish Autumn Statement, with Budgets happening in the autumn from next year, along with "Spring Statement" from 2018

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23 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

There is no money left as they saying goes.  You can only spend what you save.  Or indeed what you borrow if the OBR tells you tax receipts will be lower.  Like economists have a clue what will happen in the next few years.

You never see a government economist predict a recession in these forecasts...ever. I expect there will be one before we leave the EU (not because we are leaving, just the business cycle running out of steam).

 

It is the same old story, the government is spending too much and doesn't have the balls or political will to do anything radical.

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Forecasting economic growth 5 years ahead makes as much sense as forecasting the weather 5 years ahead.

 

There are so many factors that could influence what growth might be in 2021: trade deals, trade wars, real wars, commodity prices, natural resources, business innovation, business confidence, government tax/spending policies, terrorism, management of banks/finances, technical innovation, natural disasters....

 

In line with the forecast that growth in 2021 will be 2.0%, I'd like to forecast a warm autumn that year, with snow lying crisp and even on Christmas Day 2021.

I bet the 2003 forecast was for strong growth in 2008....

 

Seems like a "hedge your bets" budget statement, as expected. A little bit of a cautious stimulus and retrenchment but nothing that involves gambling much money. 

They'll keep their chips off the table until the big gambling school starts - once Brexit and Trump become a bit more real and discernible...there might have to be a lot of frantic gambling once that all kicks off. I wonder what the 2021 growth forecast will be then?

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4 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

There is no money left as they saying goes.  You can only spend what you save.  Or indeed what you borrow if the OBR tells you tax receipts will be lower.  Like economists have a clue what will happen in the next few years.

This. Economists can only guess.

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Brexit is going to hit hard in January. The price rises that I have seen that will hit consumers from January through to March are unprecidented. 

 

Some manufacturers are needing price increases due to the euro and dollar, but several others are just taking advantage of the situation. 

 

The rumours are real, so expect a bumpy ride early new year. 

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