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Kopfkino

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About Kopfkino

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  • Birthday 12/04/1996

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  1. Kopfkino

    Brands Brands Brands

    I just completed this quiz. My Score 80/100 My Time 104 seconds  
  2. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    You say that but the CU backstop that has them all overcome with faux outrage and their supporters blindly following was essentially a UK win which required a not insignificant EU budge. The possibility of extending the transition period that I'm sure would have them overcome with faux outrage if they'd bothered to read the WA was similar. Though of course they couldn't negotiate anything else, and tbh Im yet to understand why they'd want to. They have no idea what to do about the backstop, the WA is the WA and there's still so much left to sort in the future relationship agreement that I can't for the life of me understand why they're wasting energy on it. Particularly as they are set up to get an extensive trade agreement in future trade negotiations where the UK will have a stronger hand than it does now, ironically as a result of the backstop. And they can't even organise 48 letters of no confidence. Just today it was 48+a dozen, then it was about 48, now it's not 48, so how the **** they could negotiate international treaties who knows.
  3. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    I don't understand what you think will happen then. You don't imagine Parliament withdrawing A50 but No Deal won't happen because most of Parliament rejects it. Does it all hang on a a second referendum which quite frankly there isn't now time for before we leave in March, let alone would it solve anything.
  4. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    But of course we can't unilaterally withdraw, it wouldn't be much of a backstop if when we get fed up with it we can just withdraw and recreate the Irish border problem. Unless we're happy to withdraw to the state of NI being essentially separate to GB as was to be the case last December, but somehow I don't think anyone would find that acceptable. This to me is where there's a lack of realism. Well yeah, this informed consent argument is most rancid. If only those folk so keen now had been so keen to seek informed consent with Maastricht (Hi John) and Lisbon (Hi Gordon). In fact our first chance at informed consent on both of those resulted in a rejection.
  5. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    But yet, I guarantee that, at best a very small handful, have any idea how to do it differently let alone better. Of course they probably think they have the answer. Obviously some are using it to try to get us to remain, well the pitfalls of that are a well trodden discussion. Some will be objecting for a second referendum to 'legitimise' their desire to remain. Then there'll be some thinking we can just do a Norway, completely missing the fact it doesn't solve NI, it still requires negotiating and accepting some of the Customs Code and Rules of Origin, and still requires a backstop just in case talks break down to prevent a hard border. Then there's the loonies who just think unicorns will fall out of the sky and it will all be fine. So really what do these people propose that's different. She has at least tried to negotiate some kind of deal that ensures we leave the EU and long-term most of its structures having to take account of red lines effectively forced on her 'to respect the referendum', with the complexity of NI to deal with, and with the national economic interest to think about. We have a deal, that whilst is not perfect, ensures a lack of a hard border in Ireland, ensures that, when negotiations aren't complete by December 2020, the transition period can be extended such that we don't fall off a cliff, that if we need yet more time there will still be no hard border in Ireland and NI will mostly, but not entirely, be treated exactly the same as GB. Maybe it relies too much on good faith and that's a reason to worry. It's a deal that sets up a possible Canada+ FTA without the rush caused by falling off a cliff edge. Is it a good deal? Well not particularly but that's because of politics on both sides. But unless you expect unicorns to drop out of the sky; unless the politics on both sides shifts; unless the UK turns back time to create a better plan and doesn't destroy all good faith before starting then this is as good as it's likely to really get. The way out is GE, Corbyn majority, extend A50, he negotiates something completely different (but NI backstop is probably still going to be there). How likely is that? It's a pathetic state of affairs, bollocks to sovereignty because out polity isn't capable of it.
  6. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    It's very convenient that misses out "proceedings referred to in Articles 86 and 87". As if its somehow unreasonable that whilst in transition (effectively still a member without the privileges) or if we don't fulfil the obligations we are committing to that the ECJ could rule on that. Of course it looks terrible when you miss key parts.
  7. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    Where are the pictures?
  8. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    I don't see why she can't make it a confidence matter, the FTPA doesn't change anything in that respect but there's 14 days to come to a resolution which would likely be a GE. She can't continue to govern if her deal is rejected so one way or another there will be a confidence vote. Can't see her winning but who knows. Okay these are just personal musings of how I see it but I'll delve deeper into the thinking of the different groups for why I can't see much for any of them to cling on to a better alternative. Bear in mind that at this point the UK is probably going to need an A50 extension for a different deal unless some significant red lines are rubbed out, namely FoM. Although even then we would probably need an extension. That requires the EU27 to approve. France could be the main issue there. For Brexiteers, Assume for this one there is no confidence vote or it is won but then May goes Deal rejected -> May goes to be replaced by Brexiteers -> seeks a hard Brexit/No deal, No deal more likely as they'll still have no idea on NI -> Imo, likely faces a confidence vote introduced by the opposition -> loses -> what happens next? I think the most viable next govt is a Corbyn led coalition that given Labour members, much of the PLP, and coalition partners would have to at least offer a second referendum that. Could be anything though. How palatable is that to Con Brexiteers? I just don't think it is. They can't possibly think they could get a very hard Brexit through parliament. So there last option would be to let it run to No Deal but risk being thrown out before then and a Labour Brexit happening instead. Or Parliament decides to grow a backbone and somehow find a way to get the government to revoke A50 as I'm sure the ECJ will rule that we can. Of course they could get to the No Deal stage and it actually happen but do they really want it? Some probably do, some will bottle it. Essentially I think the longer it goes on, a deal is only going to get even less palatable for Brexiteers. Had they been constructive and pragmatic previously maybe they'd have got their way but it's too late for them now. For Con Remainers, do they think a different Con PM will give them a second ref? Well there's no chance. Do they think realistically think a better deal can be negotiated? Again there's little chance someone from their own party will be able to do that. So then are they willing to let a Labour-led government offer up an alternative? Well will the alternative be any better, unlikely again, and are they willing to let this current incarnation of the Labour Party run the country for the next 5 years? Well it's possible they might but comporting this deal to that, I doubt it. How many in the Labour Party are happy to sit tight in the hope they can get into a position to negotiate a different Brexit. How many just don't want to risk No Deal or a harder Brexit. Because as time ebbs away, their decision becomes even more binary Deal or No Deal. And in saying that, the longer things go on, the less meaningful a second referendum becomes. It would be a huge constitutional crisis if the deal is rejected but then in a referendum the people say accept, so any second referendum then becomes Remain or No Deal unless you can get another Deal on the page. I just think it will pass, it will be tight but ultimately this is as good as it's likely to get for most. Additionally, still very few actually know the full details. It might be worse, it might be better than thought so worth actually waiting for people to see it. It'd be nice if after seeing it, those that oppose could offer a coherent argument against but I won't hold my breath
  9. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    Or look at it from the point of view of each set of actors Is the deal better than remaining? Yes - some Hard Brexiteers come round. The others are charlatans that will either use voting against to advance their own careers or just have such a lack of grasp of what is really going on. Is it better than a 2nd referendum? Same as above Is the deal better than no deal? Yes - at least Conservative Remainers come on side The ECJ ruling on A50 and whether enough in parliament would want to force withdrawing it is the only barrier in my opinion. Still it's incredibly sad the level of discourse in this country. The PR machines have mobilised and their tribes follow. Remainers, who were going to whinge about any deal to try to get us to remain are whinging and their disciples follow. And the Leave PR machine has mobilised and convinced supporters that it is a terrible deal having not even read it, having not offered up any alternative, and judging by their comments such a lack of fundamental knowledge about how the EU and about how trade works. The end game is going to resemble something like Switzerland but without the depth. We've become such a pathetic polity, it's shameful. In fact I think I might have become a staunch remainer because I realise now we don't have the politicians nor the society capable enough to not delegate to a supranational level.
  10. Kopfkino

    Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

    The reaction from the people who failed to come up with any alternative, remotely viable plan in the last 30 months is embarrassing. Bellend each and every one of them
  11. Nasri is the most West Ham signing West Ham have ever made
  12. Kopfkino

    Sing for Claude

    People always see what they want to see. Given the circumstances, given the lack of training, the emotionally taxing last two weeks, the flying 6000 miles and drastic time zone changes twice in a matter of days we actually did really well in my opinion. In fact, even on a normal day that was a pretty reasonable if unspectacular performance where we didn't really get the bit of luck we needed. I'm not his biggest fan but you probably expect a bit much if you thought today's performance was a problem.
  13. Kopfkino

    Depression

    I give up fighting my head now, I really do. Its the steps forward that destroy me, managed almost a week without feeling panic and dread, now back to at least a daily occurrence. Always convinced there's something wrong with me or something catastrophic is happening to me, not always panicking but almost always thinking it. No respite. Refuse to sleep just in case, tonight is likely to be another sleepless night or until I get so tired with worry that I can't stay awake. And now it's actually getting me down, I hate that I obsess this way, I hate myself for it. I'll see the doctor on Friday, that'll reassure me for a few days, he'll give me another prescription for SSRIs, I'll convince myself I don't want to take them soon after. Rinse and repeat. I'll go to therapy, feel emotionally drained such that I forget to be anxious for a bit and then it'll all come flooding back. Nothing helps, so tired of it.
  14. Kopfkino

    Helicopter crash

    "Before Saturday’s game with Burnley the vast tribute will have to be moved. The flowers will go to the stadium’s southeast corner, near the crash site, where a permanent memorial to Vichai is likely. The plan is to store the shirts and make them a feature or artwork at the redeveloped ground." https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/united-in-grief-for-man-who-created-a-miracle-hktsmjfz9
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