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Kopfkino

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About Kopfkino

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  1. Okay that might be the choice Cameron made but by criticising it you are implicitly saying the people shouldn't have got a say on the country's relationship with the EU? Do you believe the people shouldn't have had a say and if so why?
  2. Steve Peers, who has been quite an authoritative voice on these things, ripped this apart as nonsense on Twitter
  3. May’s moment tonight is shows exactly how utterly useless and devoid of leadership she has been. She needs to win MPs over so she stands up in front of the nation and attacks parliament and MPs for not making a decision. Particularly galling given she spent most of the last 2 years refusing to make a decision. But they’ve made a decision not to take your WA, so find another way or let someone else ffs. Who is advising her on strategy?
  4. Well there is talk that they'd seek to impose some conditions on us in the case of a long extension so we cant intervene on future plans and budget. The EU doesnt really want a short extension as its just more can kicking with a much more abrupt cliff-edge come June as extension might not be an option if we don't hold elections (scenes when we then revoke A50 and then any decisions passed by EU Parliament become illegitimate). It doesn't want no deal obviously so it would surely agree a long extension and hope that something changes - well it would have to/surely then parliament would pass a no confidence vote?????? I should say it wouldn't surprise me rather than I expect he would veto it. He likely won't block it - it would use serious amounts of political capital because he doesn't really personally have any big allies within the EU. If he did have a couple of allies to call upon that I'm not aware of then it would be entirely possible - though would they want to expend that political capital anyway. We have to remember there's a sizeable chunk of EU countries that aren't overly bothered by Brexit, they'll go with majority view or can Macron twist some arms. He just wants us gone.
  5. My thought is that if its a long extension, then she resigns and then the Brexiteers have the chance to get their own person in (possible hurdle), win an election (definite hurdle) and bump off Northern Ireland to achieve their Super Canada nonsense. I'm not so sure, as I've said all along whenever anyone has talked about the extension that France was the major obstacle cos they're thoroughly pissed off and fed up with it all and it wouldn't be a surprise if Macron just wanted to get on with it now given the UK has no plan - I'm sure he wouldn't block a delay if it was just to complete the formalities or knowing there would be a deal.He's probably most worried about us revoking A50 so again better to get us gone asap.
  6. Macron quite happy to throw Ireland under a bus now then.
  7. Well I took her saying she couldn't as PM accept delaying beyond 30th June as her saying she'd resign if it was delayed beyond that. Not the best strategy as it'd be a way to make a long delay more palatable to absolutely everyone. Of course even if May did resign, the removal men would have to drag her out of Downing St kicking and screaming.
  8. Maybe I'm holding out too much hope but hasn't May essentially committed to resigning
  9. Quite clearly does. Not having a codified constitution is very much different to not having a constitution.
  10. Idc what else happens for the rest of this season, let's just get this lot beat
  11. Youre right we should leave it there because I really would hate for you to exit your bubble of trite vapidity and ignorance. And I absolutely will leave it after this but I can’t allow some of the nonsense in this to lay. Actual pollsters from actual polling companies asked actual people what their views were wrt to the price of Brexit but you refuse to believe it possible cos it doesn’t suit the narrative that is comfortable in your head. For two reasons the project fear argument remains. One is that you don’t need to be bothered by economic consequences to refute claims about it. But also, that a significant number believe it’s a price worth paying, not everyone does so it’s just a campaign tactic to sure up support. That’s not really out of the ordinary nor does it change how some people are thinking. Yes people want control matters rather than feeling some technocrats in Europe control matters. It’s not difficult. Control was signed away without people having a say in three massive treaties: Maasticht, Amsterdam, Lisbon - people just want a say. The UK could have had stricter immigration and citizens have said that successive governments have failed to adequately control immigration, there has been displeasure at the choices that governments have made and that voters haven’t had an alternative. That’s helped deliver Brexit no doubt, won’t disagree and shows the disconnect that runs much deeper than Brexit. But the government can’t have total control whilst in the EU anyway. Nor could it adopt a stricter immigration policy as some European nations have without changing the relationship between the state, police, and citizens. Because to do, as Belgium does, you have to have a register of citizens and ID cards or something similar. However, the idea of civil liberties and the relationship between state, police and citizens is different in the UK such that such things have long met much opposition. A tough political choice. In fact we see right now there is a dissatisfaction with EU migrants having to register to stay in the country post Brexit. Tbh, I have much more confidence in the ability to conduct research of the person who requires this research and designed the research than I do in your opinions of said research. You seem to have a problem with Brexiteers dismissing the experts but you’re essentially dismissing this person’s expertise in conducting research. I’ll pass on your concerns mind.
  12. 61% of Leave voters said that significant damage to the UK economy was a price worth paying for Brexit. 40% said it was worth losing their or a relatives job, more than said wouldn’t be worth it. So they it’s quite clear a significant portion value something more than plain economics. You don’t need to tell me that national sovereignty is naturally eroded in the modern world and it won’t be returning as it was many moons ago. But, you’ve just shown how it will allow them to do something they couldn’t already do. That we might operate an independent trade policy means we will have to talk about trade policy and decisions will be made about it in Westminster. Not that sovereignty, control, or democracy was the only non economic driver. Security was another. s something that hasn’t happened for 40 years. That is exactly a return of some sovereignty -being able to sign it back away. Well you have gained if MPs now have more things they have to legislate on. You have more to hold them account against and you actually have someone to hold to account for those decisions. It doesn’t have to be the policy they want but it’s about who governs for who and who decides for who. Already many analysts attribute the softening attitude to immigration numbers as partly because people anticipate that the UK will be able to control numbers yet numbers haven’t changed. It does make a difference for many people whether you think so or not. The polling above shows you’re wrong. Control and sovereignty showed up in polling long before the referendum campaign. Eurosceptisism is long baked in. Conjecture It won because a majority of voters decided they no longer wanted to be a part of the EU for which there were numerous reasons. Just as in every democratic vote, people have different reasons for their vote, it doesn’t make them any less valid. Just as if I vote for x party in a general election, it won’t be for exactly the same reasons as other voters, nor cos I agree with every single policy. It’s not really inconsistent to say I am not so bothered by the economic consequence but to at the same time brand Treasury forecasts to be project fear. Not putting weight on something doesn’t mean I then can’t express an opinion on that matter. We are perfectly aware of the possible limitations of conducting interviews with people, particularly retrospectively 2-3 years later. However, I am quite confident that speaking to hundreds of people about how they feel and why they voted the way they did is a far more effective way of understanding than having to read the thoughts of someone that’s seemingly hardly tried to understand it beyond tired tropes, trite statements, and basic bromide. A really daft remark there. So nobody wanted to Leave but people were voting for UKIP. Right cos that makes sense. Still finally we have found some actual cognitive dissonance going on.
  13. So what you’ve done now is jumped to conclusions and put everyone in the same box. Exactly the problem any future remain campaign would fall foul to. I did not vote to Leave (though I was not against it), but I do support leaving to respect the referendum and believe it can be a success and have always backed an EEA/EFTA version of Leave whilst fully realising it doesn’t necessarily respect the referendum. Therefore, with that in mind, I am fully aware that an opposition to regulatory alignment with the EU is not compatible with a desire to do FTAs, particularly with the USA. In doing a deal with Australia we would be accepting EU standards as that’s the direction Australia is headed. The EU is one of two, increasingly three, regulatory superpowers so we are still going to be adhering to EU standards on many things. This would also be subject arbitration at a supernational level but arbitration of FTAs is far different to the current role of the ECJ over the UKSC. Moreover, not all Leave voters are gagging for us to be a free trading nation, Strokes I believe thinks like this. On the third point. I am not agreeing I or anyone will be worse off. I am not stating an opinion on that front. I am saying how some Leave voters would think - that if they think they’ll be worse off in absolute wealth terms, that really may not matter to them. That’s the whole problem with this insistence from many remainers talking in economic absolute wealth terms - being better or worse off for many isn’t only categorised in economic terms but in terms of sovereignty, democracy, a feeling of control. And I don’t see how having that opinion would then stop someone talking about project fear? I’ve spent the last 6 months speaking to Leave voters from across the political spectrum, from across the country to help with someone’s research and I’ve also read as much as there is out there on these kind of things. In fact I was with 15 people in North Kent on Monday that outlined exactly what I said above. Maybe you’d benefit from doing similar.
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