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knitro

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Posts posted by knitro

  1. Either have confidence in Thomas being able to be part of 4, or don't play him. 

     

    Either have confidence in Mendy as the anchor, or play Hamza. 

     

    Boats are safest in port but that's not what they're built for. 

     

    It's just feckless.

  2. Just now, StriderHiryu said:

    With Van Dijk out you could make an argument that he's the best centre back in the league already. I genuinely think he is!

     

    I thought he would be a good player, but this is ridiculous. He's so composed and mature for a 19 year old. This is the best signing we've made in many years and we've made some good ones!

    Got a GIF of that first half tackle?

  3. It's simple as this:

    Trump - let's learn to live with Covid and open up. People's lives depend on normalcy returning.

     

    Biden - Winter of Darkness, mandatory masks and more lockdowns - SAFETY UBER ALLES

     

    Trump - Law and order, defend the police, stop the looting.

     

    Biden - Defund the police, it's peaceful protesting not looting.

     

    This is heavily oversimplified, and I'm assigning surrogate positions to the main candidates, but I really think these are the two critical things that the pollsters missed and the media missed. Both are areas that the 'shy Trump/tory' effect were most evident.

     

    People can look at graphs that say that COVID is 99.9% nonlethal for those under 75 and recognize extended shut downs are a gross overreaction. They can also see storefronts and police stations torched and not call it protesting. 

    • Haha 1
  4. 3 minutes ago, Buce said:

    Listen, you can cheerlead as much as you like - our conversation is not impactful on the end results. I hopped in and reread the last five pages, and saw a conversation which was not really reflective of what I see on the ground. Biden is still favorite to win but it's going to be far closer than many here seem to think. My instinct is that Trump pulls it out. 

  5. Well had you read it it'd talk about methodology that led to the miss in 2016 and how they attempted to redress it. So my comments were never about poll writ large. Regardless I'm more providing additional context for the interested, not proselytizing like many in this thread. 

    • Thanks 1
  6. https://medium.com/wick-research/predicting-2020-research-on-the-research-57ad9b7b3d5a

     

    Quote

    We are predicting that Donald Trump is going to win re-election. In our most recent battleground polls in the 6 states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio he is up by over 2% in all but Michigan (for those results scroll to the end of this article).
     

    But what’s more interesting than our prediction that he will win, and why we are writing this article, is that all of our polls until last week had Trump losing by similar margins to what you have probably seen in the news.
     

    What caused this change? It had little to do with either team’s campaigning because we can still easily conduct a poll that has Biden up by a large margin. Instead, it was our methodology that changed. We still used similar tactics that helped us accurately predict every battleground state in 2016: Nearly the same questionnaire design, random samples of likely and newly registered voters, no live agents, etc… But otherwise, we pretty much threw out the book of traditional assumptions made about data sampling. We decided to question everything as we started our field program.

     

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