Some of this makes sense and some of it doesn't.
It makes sense when you think they've only been tracking the disease since someone went to hospital, it seems there are a number of cases with zero symptions, therefore when they say the first positive case was in Dec, it could have actually been months earlier, and if it's as infectious as it sounds and they didn't lock down Wuhan till mid jan surely the disease would have spread quickly given everyone in the region could travel anywhere. They've only done proper testing in this country really since Feb, so how do we know the number of cases isn't much much higher and happened much much earlier?
What it doesn't explain is the high number of hospitalisations in Italy though and the rest of mainland Europe.
That said in the East midlands, I know GPs were reported there was a terrible mysterious cough going round late Dec, early Jan. It's all speculation clearly, but there's a lot more to be understood on this.
Factually though if you're looking purely at statistics mortality rates are down 4% YOY compared to the previous 5 years in data before the virus hit the UK though, will be interesting to see how this evolves. There's a magnificent book on how looking at statistics is so rarely done in the media called factfulness. Part of me wonders are we looking at the wrong thing.
They really need to get on the testing properly and develop the antibody test, as this will have the answers to this.