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davieG

The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

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I'm all for democracy but I just hope the ill informed abstain from voting on this referendum.

The benefits of staying in the EU far outweigh the costs.

I wish they had in General Election too.

People were being interviewed before the vote saying they were going to make up

their minds in the polling booth, if you don't know who to vote for just don't vote.

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Switzerland chooses which EU legislation it wants to accept, including free movement of people, while still having free trade, which is the ideal scenario for the UK. You'd do well to find a Swiss person who wants to be in the EEA, never mind the EU.

Rubbish, deals with the EU have Guillotine clauses that are unusable, take a look here http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations

Switzerland has to toe the line or risk the free trade agreements

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Rubbish, deals with the EU have Guillotine clauses that are unusable, take a look here http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations

Switzerland has to toe the line or risk the free trade agreements

But in the first instance they are bilateral agreements that they have chosen to take part in though, no? And as it says on there, it limits EU influence to those areas only. Granted the strength of your negotiating position would be a major factor, but if the UK could choose and successfully negotiate some areas of EU influence in exchange for free trade that would potentially represent close to an ideal solution.

It's certainly not rubbish to say that the Swiss people want to be no more part of the EU than they are now.

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But in the first instance they are bilateral agreements that they have chosen to take part in though, no? And as it says on there, it limits EU influence to those areas only. Granted the strength of your negotiating position would be a major factor, but if the UK could choose and successfully negotiate some areas of EU influence in exchange for free trade that would potentially represent close to an ideal solution.

It's certainly not rubbish to say that the Swiss people want to be no more part of the EU than they are now.

Rubbish referred to the statement that they pick and choose legislation, they really have very little choice in this and have had to enact over 200 bits of legislation just to keep the EU on board. There is a massive threat to them if they don't do as they are told.

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The Swiss example really isn't that comparable to us. They are far more reliant on the EU markets than we are. The important thing for us would be not applying european laws (which we pass through our own parliament) to the whole of our economy.

This would make us far more competative on the world stage. A free trade agreement between us and the EU would be in both our interests and would do a lot of harm to a fragile EU if they want to be spiteful (which they won't).

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The Swiss example really isn't that comparable to us. They are far more reliant on the EU markets than we are. The important thing for us would be not applying european laws (which we pass through our own parliament) to the whole of our economy.

This would make us far more competative on the world stage. A free trade agreement between us and the EU would be in both our interests and would do a lot of harm to a fragile EU if they want to be spiteful (which they won't).

I'd expect, unless we are going to go to a low cost economy, that we'd find little competitive advantage, larger countries like the U.S., Japan and China wouldn't be all that interested in dealing with a small UK market when free trade with the EU block was on the table. The free trade agreement with the EU would be used by them in to coerce the UK just as the EU does with the Swiss.

Interesting to see if UK Ltd is happy to be a cornershop (or maybe a high end boutique) in the global markets .

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Out. We need to focus on Asia

Working for a Japanese corporation I have some experience here, our UK office was moved to Germany to be at the heart of Europe. Asian partners will want fully unfettered access to the larger market with no risks of trade restrictions. HSBC is already considering that London maybe the wrong place to be base their head office.

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What Cameron should be doing is going to the EU and saying that this is happening and whilst he doesn't want to leave the EU we need to prepare a contingency plan in case the people vote to leave and getting guarantees that should we leave the EU existing trade agreements will not be impacted and business will continue between us and Europe with as little disruption as possible and neither UK nor foreign citizens living abroad will be negatively affected. He should also be setting a time frame, we aren't going to vote and the next day we are out, but are we going to leave within a year, 2 years, 5 years.

 

All of this must be discussed openly before we can have any sort of debate on in and out, unlike the Scotch referendum where nobody actually knew what would actually happen if they left.

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What Cameron should be doing is going to the EU and saying that this is happening and whilst he doesn't want to leave the EU we need to prepare a contingency plan in case the people vote to leave and getting guarantees that should we leave the EU existing trade agreements will not be impacted and business will continue between us and Europe with as little disruption as possible and neither UK nor foreign citizens living abroad will be negatively affected. He should also be setting a time frame, we aren't going to vote and the next day we are out, but are we going to leave within a year, 2 years, 5 years.

All of this must be discussed openly before we can have any sort of debate on in and out, unlike the Scotch referendum where nobody actually knew what would actually happen if they left.

Much like rUK were with Scotland the EU is hardly likely to want to help any out vote by giving a list of things that will remain in place after a UK vote to leave, in fact they are quite likely to say that nothing will be the same after a divorce.

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The people who use Switzerland as a potential model for a UK outside the EU really don't understand how much The EU affects Swiss law and how many laws they've had to bring in to be compliant, these are laws that they are having to pass but have no input in drawing up the laws because they are outside of the EU system. There are plenty of things wrong with the EU system but it's better to have the ability to participate in formulation of legislation you'll have to comply with in my opinion.

The UK needs parties to take the EU more seriously, the conservatives not having any major allies in the EU Parliament since they set up their own little group is a joke

I don't think many people in this thread understand very much at all about the EU. 

 

They listen to what a crappy rag says about cucumber shape - that's about it.

Switzerland chooses which EU legislation it wants to accept, including free movement of people, while still having free trade, which is the ideal scenario for the UK. You'd do well to find a Swiss person who wants to be in the EEA, never mind the EU.

 

No, They don't.

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Much like rUK were with Scotland the EU is hardly likely to want to help any out vote by giving a list of things that will remain in place after a UK vote to leave, in fact they are quite likely to say that nothing will be the same after a divorce.

 

That is exactly the point, we need to know the EU's reaction to it, and this will help form informed opinions on the in/out referendum, it would also start to force the EU's hand a bit, any changes will impact the EU and they need to be aware of the possibility of us leaving and either start compromising on some of our demands or start looking at a legitimate exit strategy.

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That is exactly the point, we need to know the EU's reaction to it, and this will help form informed opinions on the in/out referendum, it would also start to force the EU's hand a bit, any changes will impact the EU and they need to be aware of the possibility of us leaving and either start compromising on some of our demands or start looking at a legitimate exit strategy.

 

I think you are overestimating the UK's power and underestimating certain country's stubbornness.

 

I'm sure that a little flexibility wil be found but if the UK wants changes it needs to convince enough of the participating countries from within - the fact is that the UK has gradually isolated itself and where it has allies it doesn't have enough.

 

Trade pacts work better the bigger and stronger you are. The UK on its own will not be able to get the beneficial agreements that the EU can, worse than that they could find many of their existing agreements weakened. Asia and Africa like to use the UK as a back door entry into europe for trade. If that is lost the UK will not be so inviting.

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I think you are overestimating the UK's power and underestimating certain country's stubbornness.

I'm sure that a little flexibility wil be found but if the UK wants changes it needs to convince enough of the participating countries from within - the fact is that the UK has gradually isolated itself and where it has allies it doesn't have enough.

Trade pacts work better the bigger and stronger you are. The UK on its own will not be able to get the beneficial agreements that the EU can, worse than that they could find many of their existing agreements weakened. Asia and Africa like to use the UK as a back door entry into europe for trade. If that is lost the UK will not be so inviting.

Regarding trade pacts, I'm afraid in practice (with the EU) that is wrong. The EU takes an age to get any free trade deals signed as protectionist countries drag their heels.

If you look at countries outside the EU, in particular the EFTA members they have a far more trade deals with important countries in asia and elsewhere.

The idea we will be prevented to trade with the EU is a fantasy, they can't do so under WTO rules for starters. Also the trade deficit would make it very harmful for the EU particularly when there is next to no growth in the Euro countries.

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Regarding trade pacts, I'm afraid in practice (with the EU) that is wrong. The EU takes an age to get any free trade deals signed as protectionist countries drag their heels.

If you look at countries outside the EU, in particular the EFTA members they have a far more trade deals with important countries in asia and elsewhere.

The idea we will be prevented to trade with the EU is a fantasy, they can't do so under WTO rules for starters. Also the trade deficit would make it very harmful for the EU particularly when there is next to no growth in the Euro countries.

 

I don't think anyone has said or thinks that.

 

Everyone can have a deal it's the terms of the deal that are better for you the more powerful that you are.

 

Obviously the UK will have trade deals with the EU - but it's the EU who has the greater negotiating power to make the better deal.

 

The UK will be able to make deals easier and quicker with other single entities - let's say Japan or Vietnam - but they won't get as good terms in that deal as they the EU would.

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I don't think anyone has said or thinks that.

Everyone can have a deal it's the terms of the deal that are better for you the more powerful that you are.

Obviously the UK will have trade deals with the EU - but it's the EU who has the greater negotiating power to make the better deal.

The UK will be able to make deals easier and quicker with other single entities - let's say Japan or Vietnam - but they won't get as good terms in that deal as they the EU would.

Apologies I misread what you typed. I see your argument and is has some merit, but you could also argue that whatever deal the EU does do it won't necessarily be in the interest of the UK as there are 27 other members at the table.

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Guest MattP

I find it amazing people think Britain would struggle to negotiate trade deals on it's own, we are well inside the top ten of trading nations in the World.

 

Iceland has it's own trade pact with China ffs.

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Working for a Japanese corporation I have some experience here, our UK office was moved to Germany to be at the heart of Europe. Asian partners will want fully unfettered access to the larger market with no risks of trade restrictions. HSBC is already considering that London maybe the wrong place to be base their head office.

Is access to the European market through the EU though it is it through the EEA? ie if we remained in the EEA wouldn't we still be in the larger market for the purposes of external trade?  

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I find it amazing people think Britain would struggle to negotiate trade deals on it's own, we are well inside the top ten of trading nations in the World.

Iceland has it's own trade pact with China ffs.

We'd have trade deals but much less favourable ones, if the UK plans to become China's bitch I'll be leaving.

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I find it amazing people think Britain would struggle to negotiate trade deals on it's own, we are well inside the top ten of trading nations in the World.

 

Iceland has it's own trade pact with China ffs.

 

I don't think people think we won't be able to, but potentially we will lose all of the trade deals we have as part of the EU, this would mean we would have to renegotiate the terms and conditions of new trade deals, which will probably be time consuming and expensive.

 

This doesn't mean we will stop trading, just that we will be subject to higher levels of duty and tax, we might also have to renegotiate things like quotas and also quality regulations. The problem is as a heavy net importer of goods we will not be negotiating from a position of strength that we would as part of the EU, we need to import a lot more than the rest of the world needs our exports so we could get seriously screwed over.

 

This is where we also need to know the exit timeframe, will we have 3-4 years after the vote to leave, then we could renegotiate some of the trade deals before we leave, but if it is leave within 6 months then we won't have the time.

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Apologies I misread what you typed. I see your argument and is has some merit, but you could also argue that whatever deal the EU does do it won't necessarily be in the interest of the UK as there are 27 other members at the table.

 

That would be a fair argument. Similar to whatever the UK govt. does it won't necessarily be in the interest of Scotland, Wales, the North or the Midlands. 

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I find it amazing people think Britain would struggle to negotiate trade deals on it's own, we are well inside the top ten of trading nations in the World.

 

Iceland has it's own trade pact with China ffs.

 

I don't think anyone thinks we can't get a trade agreement. They worry that many trade agreements won't be as good for the UK as they would from within the EU.

 

We are well inside the EU too.

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