GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 And, of course, there will be people voting leave because of equally spurious reasons. Just to keep everything nice and balanced Complaints on Twitter that pencils are there to help rig the vote, despite every election being done in.... amazingly... pencil Tonight's count will be extremely interesting. It could easily swing one way to another if heavily leave districts come in together, then remain districts counter! Any predictions on the county areas and how they'll vote? City - Heavy Remain Harborough - Heavy Leave Melton - Heavy Leave Blaby - Close Leave Oadby & Wigston - Heavy Remain Charnwood - Close Remain NW Leics - Heavy Leave Harborough heavy leave ??? Why ?? I don't think that's an accurate prediction Where is the exit poll gone ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Countryfox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Your population is ever expanding whether you are in or out of the EU. Yes but I've got a sneaky feeling it will expand a lot quicker if we stay in .... Might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Michael Grove has a wife ??? Wow , a shirt lifter was my thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Been looking at some data to try and get a feel for what the various polls on foxestalk might mean on a wider scale. Quite difficult to do, but I would make the following assumptions; *Foxestalk appears to be more male orientated *In terms of age range of posters, i suspect the main demographic's would be 18-25 and 50+ ranges *Looking at the member map, the main focus area of posters is around Leicestershire and surrounding areas (naturally), but also along the M1 corridor to London. That said, it's not as dense a position as one might have thought. *In terms of suggested voting intentions for these areas, you have two central strong remain sections, surrounded by areas of light to strong leave. *There appears to be a fair amount of people that have attended University on these boards. *The board is culturally diverse. *I would suspect the average income on these broads to be above a national average Some of these factors are polar opposites in terms of demographic voting intentions, but if these assumptions were fair I would expect the overall view on foxestalk to lean more towards Remain - and so if the results on here were very close or pointing to leave, leave might actually be winning. That said, the polling data I've seen suggest women break out for Remain in a stronger proportion, so with that demographic missing from our sample, if Remain are showing in front by 2-3% on here, I expect that would point towards a Remain win nationwide. Foxestalk is far too small a sample to tell anything, you need a minimum of 1,000 people voting. High turnout means high undecided, high undecided means a lot more votes for remain. I'm almost certain Remain are going to win, it's just now about how much, over 55% makes it far more tricky to keep this issue alive. Harborough heavy leave ??? Why ?? I don't think that's an accurate prediction Harborough last year was touching 70% for UKIP/Tory combined vote, if that isn't a fairly heavy leave remain has won nationwide by a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Guvnor Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 My postal vote went in over a week ago with my wife's to leave, I will be extremely surprised if we win because the majority of people in so many aspects of life are frightened of change, and for that reason it will be a sad conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark_w Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 My postal vote went in over a week ago with my wife's to leave, I will be extremely surprised if we win because the majority of people in so many aspects of life are frightened of change, and for that reason it will be a sad conclusion. I reckon a few leave voters might just be motivated by a fear of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mee-9 Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 I'll be voting later on. This referendum has been a joke on social media. So many celebrities and high profile people using their status to try and push the remain and leave campaigns. Democracy should result in people making their own decisions. It looks from the betting that we'll be remaining anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon the Hat Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Roses are red Violets are blue I love all of Europe but not the EU.. Vote Leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkon84 Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Genuinely seeing people saying they're voting remain because David Beckham said so. We're doomed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Paddy power just told me its 100% going to be a remain vote They just Went 1-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atomicfox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 First time I've seen a queue at my local (rural) polling station,most being pensioners who statistics say are more likely to vote out.getting their vote out could be a problem for remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 1-9 and shortening all the time We remain in Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaelicFox Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 First time I've seen a queue at my local (rural) polling station,most being pensioners who statistics say are more likely to vote out.getting their vote out could be a problem for remain. The grey vote is a pension vote Turkeys don't vote for Xmas The greys will vote remain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thracian Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Remain will win - the blind faith of youth and remorseless tide of misguided optimism will see to that. Me, I'm voting "Leave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest LCFC_World Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 1/8 on SkyBet to remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 23 June 2016 Author Share Posted 23 June 2016 1-9 and shortening all the time We remain in Europe Yep, looks that way - Betfair have odds representative of a horse clear coming to the final fence and the amount of money on that side completely out weighs anything on the leave side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 1-9 and shortening all the time We remain in Europe Don't forget Paddy Power at 6pm last May had a hung parliament at 1/25 - we all saw how that turned out. The grey vote is a pension vote Turkeys don't vote for Xmas The greys will vote remain There is no way a million years the grey vote is going to be remain, most pollsters had the over 65's at around 65-35 leave, some even as high as 70-30. Put it this way, if the grey vote is for remain, the result of this will be about 75-25 by the end. Remain will win - the blind faith of youth and remorseless tide of misguided optimism will see to that. Me, I'm voting "Leave". Then we'll have the same situation in 40 years, a load of older people who were conned into voting for something totally different earlier now voting to leave, then a new generation thinking everything is great keeping them in it, democracy is great isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alf Bentley Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Harborough last year was touching 70% for UKIP/Tory combined vote, if that isn't a fairly heavy leave remain has won nationwide by a mile. I wonder whether that's true? Doesn't it under-estimate the influence of socioeconomic factors? Did you see that poll from Kent that I posted? All the less well-off, more marginal Tory seats, which had been Lab under Blair/Brown, had solid Leave majorities. In contrast, the well-off stockbroker belt Tory safe seats with massive majorities were marginally pro-Remain. Harborough is quite a well-off area, isn't it? OK, maybe a lot of older people voting Leave - and in the Leave column overall. But I'd expect a much bigger Leave vote in less prosperous areas like Leics NW....& in struggling Lab areas further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Michael Grove has a wife ??? Wow , a shirt lifter was my thought Those two possibilities are not exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MattP Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 I wonder whether that's true? Doesn't it under-estimate the influence of socioeconomic factors? Did you see that poll from Kent that I posted? All the less well-off, more marginal Tory seats, which had been Lab under Blair/Brown, had solid Leave majorities. In contrast, the well-off stockbroker belt Tory safe seats with massive majorities were marginally pro-Remain. Harborough is quite a well-off area, isn't it? OK, maybe a lot of older people voting Leave - and in the Leave column overall. But I'd expect a much bigger Leave vote in less prosperous areas like Leics NW....& in struggling Lab areas further north. Fair point Alf, I've not taken into consideration how middle class and wealthy Harborough is, that could easily be a remain thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Genuinely seeing people saying they're voting remain because David Beckham said so. We're doomed! Is that any worse than voting either way because someone else (cameron/gove) said so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Remain will win - the blind faith of youth and remorseless tide of misguided optimism will see to that. Me, I'm voting "Leave". Perhaps you should consider moving to a country more in line with your views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AKCJ Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Don't forget Paddy Power at 6pm last May had a hung parliament at 1/25 - we all saw how that turned out. I've heard they've all got tiny willies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Barry Hammond Posted 23 June 2016 Author Share Posted 23 June 2016 The pound and FTSE rising as well - the markets did their own private polling, so that looks like a key indicator as well. Could suggest the end result isn't as close as the polls were flagging it (or they just struggled getting true representative responses). One thing is clear however as Matt P has touched on - there was always a steady stream of undecided in the polls, so there is a case to say they were waiting for Leave to pitch them something to fully convince them. Left untouched, given how the importance of this referendum has been impressed on people, the danger was always that they'd vote Remain to a decisive margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wymsey Posted 23 June 2016 Share Posted 23 June 2016 Voted in, but was pretty undecided. If in doubt put remain, things are the same and the other option might not be all flowers and sunshine like some think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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