Brexit Discussion Thread.

[Kopfkino]

31 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

 

The implications and details of Brexit will take years to fully show impact. But the increase in inflation has already started - and if May doesn't do something to reduce it the likelihood of a recession increases every day.

 

You're right there. But FDI is a long term investment. Cancelling large projects which have taken years to plan on unknown details of future negotiations may be a little hasty. Look at Nissan though: they had to get the government to agree on a secret deal for them before they piped down. That's not the kind of thing that screams invest here everything will be fine. And any firm that is in some way dependent on the Single Market of 400 million potential buyers may well think twice unless May does a U-turn on that as well - which I sincerely hope she does.

Governments agree deals with foreign companies all the time, Brexit throws a spanner in the works and companies will use it as a negotiating tactic to get better deals, whether they really have intentions of moving or not. Some industries will be harder hit than others.

 

As you say these things take years to plan, hence firms have been planning for a less favourable Brexit negotiation, this grabs the headlines and over eggs what will really happen. Take the banks for example; notoriously hate uncertainty so they are beginning the process of mitigating possible problems that may arise. But even so, the amount of jobs that are being moved out is quite small. London edges New York as financial capital of the world, the institutional framework in place in London can't be matched by anywhere in Europe and would take a monumental effort for them to get close. Many in Europe has acknowledged they won't be able to overthrow London and are therefore begging for any piece it can get. You used Transferwise as an example, its actually setting up a European headquarters but keeping London as its global headquarters. They, and the rest of the financial services industry, chose London for a reason and most of that isn't going to change. Brexit may do some damage but the government will have policy instruments available to it that were previously more tricky to possibly mitigate any problems. 

 

Inflation at 2.3% isn't a problem per se, well within the inflation target.

 

Just to say, it's not that I don't share concerns, I just don't see why we should hamper ourselves with pessimism. I find it strange that a lot of the pessimism comes from within when Europe doesn't seem to share it. There's a reason cities across the EU are making desperate attempts to lure firms to relocate a small % of their business there. Look what the CEO of Axa's real estate division said over the weekend or what has been said by Nasir Zubairi.

[Foxxed]

On 20/04/2017 at 19:02, Webbo said:

We weren't planning to leave the EU in 2013, we didn't have a recession in 2014. Inflation goes up and down 2.3% is not historically high, even if it gets to 4% it's still lower than it's been for most of my life.

 

We'll have a recession eventually, I'm surprised we haven't had one already, we're definitely overdue, but it won't necessarily have anything to do with Brexit. Anyway it's not going to affect you in France.

Inflation is up, that's the point.

 

Not only is inflation up, but retail spending is down:

 

 

Less than one year after Brexit, with effects on the pound, and uncertainty about the economy, both inflation is up and retail spending is down.

 

An increase in prices. And a decrease in spending. A weaker pound. Less than a year after Brexit.

 

A few posts ago you suggested a recession wouldn't happen since it didn't happen directly after Brexit. And now you're saying it's bound to happen.

 

Edit: I'm not in France, friend. I'm close than you think! (Also, they'll probably have Le Pen and their own problems fairly soon, I'd wager)

[Foxxed]

On 20/04/2017 at 19:22, KingGTF said:

Inflation at 2.3% isn't a problem per se, well within the inflation target.

 

Just to say, it's not that I don't share concerns, I just don't see why we should hamper ourselves with pessimism.

I agree, but when retail spending is down (see above), it spells the magical word beginning with r. I'm unsure if our FDI will as good as if those two pistons continue propel us towards our current path.

 

Sometimes pessimism is bad. But sometimes that pessimism is less pessimism but smelling danger. If you refuse to smell danger then you may well make a mistake. And that mistake has leaving the Single Market and leaving the EEA written all over it.

[Webbo]

8 hours ago, Foxxed said:

Inflation is up, that's the point.

 

Not only is inflation up, but retail spending is down:

 

 

Less than one year after Brexit, with effects on the pound, and uncertainty about the economy, both inflation is up and retail spending is down.

 

An increase in prices. And a decrease in spending. A weaker pound. Less than a year after Brexit.

 

A few posts ago you suggested a recession wouldn't happen since it didn't happen directly after Brexit. And now you're saying it's bound to happen.

 

Edit: I'm not in France, friend. I'm close than you think! (Also, they'll probably have Le Pen and their own problems fairly soon, I'd wager)

A recession will happen because they're part of the economic cycle. We're overdue one really, maybe it's because of the slow recovery in the Eurozone, possibly something to with brexit but it happen eventually. It might be mild or it might be serious, probably won't be as bad as 2008 while we were still in the EU.

 

As for your other point, there are so many economic indicators, inflation,employment,productivity,retail spending,exports,imports,the deficit etc etc. You can always find a set of figures to suit your argument.

[sylofox]

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/185827

 

It would be nice if some or all would sign this. So once again we can have a thriving fishing industry. So our waters and fish stocks can recover. The Common Fisheries Policy means quotas are limited but does not stop hundreds of fishing boats from overseas plundering our waters.

[Innovindil]

2 hours ago, sylofox said:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/185827

 

It would be nice if some or all would sign this. So once again we can have a thriving fishing industry. So our waters and fish stocks can recover. The Common Fisheries Policy means quotas are limited but does not stop hundreds of fishing boats from overseas plundering our waters.

Signed it 

[leicsmac]

5 hours ago, sylofox said:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/185827

 

It would be nice if some or all would sign this. So once again we can have a thriving fishing industry. So our waters and fish stocks can recover. The Common Fisheries Policy means quotas are limited but does not stop hundreds of fishing boats from overseas plundering our waters.

 

Along with this, it would be nice if our own boats didn't also terminally overfish our waters. So, you know, there's still fish there in the not-too-distant future?

[Foxxed]

On 04/22/2017 at 08:10, Webbo said:

A recession will happen because they're part of the economic cycle. We're overdue one really, maybe it's because of the slow recovery in the Eurozone, possibly something to with brexit but it happen eventually. It might be mild or it might be serious, probably won't be as bad as 2008 while we were still in the EU.

 

As for your other point, there are so many economic indicators, inflation,employment,productivity,retail spending,exports,imports,the deficit etc etc. You can always find a set of figures to suit your argument.

 

Because you don't want something to cause something else does not mean something does not cause something else.

 

Recession are not like waves in the ocean. They are not the result of nature. Recessions are because of poor economic management and decisions. Major was not guilt free. Ted Heath was not guilt free.

 

We have chosen not only to leave the EU, but the Single Market and EEA. This has massively effected the pound and confidence. This has resulted in higher prices. Higher prices and and lack of confidence has resulted in lower spending.

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

 

Because you don't want something to cause something else does not mean something does not cause something else.

 

Recession are not like waves in the ocean. They are not the result of nature. Recessions are because of poor economic management and decisions. Major was not guilt free. Ted Heath was not guilt free.

 

We have chosen not only to leave the EU, but the Single Market and EEA. This has massively effected the pound and confidence. This has resulted in higher prices. Higher prices and and lack of confidence has resulted in lower spending.

 

You remind me of someone, Foxxed.

 

Can't think who, though.

 

 

 

[Webbo]

12 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

 

Because you don't want something to cause something else does not mean something does not cause something else.

 

Recession are not like waves in the ocean. They are not the result of nature. Recessions are because of poor economic management and decisions. Major was not guilt free. Ted Heath was not guilt free.

 

We have chosen not only to leave the EU, but the Single Market and EEA. This has massively effected the pound and confidence. This has resulted in higher prices. Higher prices and and lack of confidence has resulted in lower spending.

So who was to blame in 2008? Bearing in mind we were well in the EU.

[Foxxed]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

So who was to blame in 2008? Bearing in mind we were well in the EU.

It wasn't nature. It wasn't the fact we were 'due' a recession. It was because our banking sector invested heavily in sub-prime mortgages. It was because we deregulated them and failed to stop them. It was our fault. It was the fault of policy. Much like our rise in prices and fall in spending is due to policy.

[Foxxed]

Let's ignore higher prices, let's ignore lower spending, let's ignore a weaker pound, let's ignore a rise in reported racism, let's ignore overseas territories troubles, let's ignore leaving nurses, let's ignore lost banking contracts, let's ignore leaving tech firms, let's ignore companies failing to replace eu workers, let's ignore the incoming effects of tariffs on prices.

 

Let's talk about trade! Because that was going to be great after we shake off the shackles of the Single Market! Let's talk about the small, insignificant markets of China and the US. Let's talk to the limp-wristed lefty loonies newspapers, The Times and The Financial Times.

 

 

The hard, destructive Brexit of leaving the EU and also the Single Market may be hard and destructive.

[Webbo]

10 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

Let's ignore higher prices, let's ignore lower spending, let's ignore a weaker pound, let's ignore a rise in reported racism, let's ignore overseas territories troubles, let's ignore leaving nurses, let's ignore lost banking contracts, let's ignore leaving tech firms, let's ignore companies failing to replace eu workers, let's ignore the incoming effects of tariffs on prices.

 

Let's talk about trade! Because that was going to be great after we shake off the shackles of the Single Market! Let's talk about the small, insignificant markets of China and the US. Let's talk to the limp-wristed lefty loonies newspapers, The Times and The Financial Times.

 

 

The hard, destructive Brexit of leaving the EU and also the Single Market may be hard and destructive.

Let's ignore healthy growth, lets ignore falling unemployment, lets ignore the growth in exports.

[Webbo]

18 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

It wasn't nature. It wasn't the fact we were 'due' a recession. It was because our banking sector invested heavily in sub-prime mortgages. It was because we deregulated them and failed to stop them. It was our fault. It was the fault of policy. Much like our rise in prices and fall in spending is due to policy.

What about Greece and Portugal?

[Foxxed]

4 hours ago, Webbo said:

Let's ignore healthy growth, lets ignore falling unemployment, lets ignore the growth in exports.

 

Some statistics are subordinate to others, though. Let's take unemployment. People are employed to sell goods and services. Goods are now more expensive. And people are buying fewer goods. When you hear both goods are more expressive and people are buying fewer goods and our trading partners favour us less, how will that affect employment? Does it bode well for growth?

 

Exports are also interesting. There downsides and upsides to a weaker pound. Our goods are cheaper to buy, but if we manufacture them using goods from the EU they're more expensive. The fact exports are doing well indicates we've managed this balance well. For now. But when we leave the Single Market and trade tariffs are added to the price of our goods which we may sell to the 520m people in the Single Market? And are we a manufacturing economy or a service and banking economy?

 

4 hours ago, Webbo said:

What about Greece and Portugal?

Perhaps that too was because of Greece and Portugal's failure to analyse economic indicators and manage their economy and economic deals successfully rather than the idea they were 'due' a recession, the invisible hand getting a bit slappy every so often.

[Strokes]

11 hours ago, Foxxed said:

Let's ignore higher prices, let's ignore lower spending, let's ignore a weaker pound, let's ignore a rise in reported racism, let's ignore overseas territories troubles, let's ignore leaving nurses, let's ignore lost banking contracts, let's ignore leaving tech firms, let's ignore companies failing to replace eu workers, let's ignore the incoming effects of tariffs on prices.

 

Let's talk about trade! Because that was going to be great after we shake off the shackles of the Single Market! Let's talk about the small, insignificant markets of China and the US. Let's talk to the limp-wristed lefty loonies newspapers, The Times and The Financial Times.

 

 

The hard, destructive Brexit of leaving the EU and also the Single Market may be hard and destructive.

It looks like bursaries for nurses are making a comeback as we have to fill the gap left by EU migrants. Skills for British people and important jobs, for people previously left on the scrap heap. That's what brexit will achieve.

[Kopfkino]

8 hours ago, Foxxed said:

 

Some statistics are subordinate to others, though. Let's take unemployment. People are employed to sell goods and services. Goods are now more expensive. And people are buying fewer goods. When you hear both goods are more expressive and people are buying fewer goods and our trading partners favour us less, how will that affect employment? Does it bode well for growth?

 

Exports are also interesting. There downsides and upsides to a weaker pound. Our goods are cheaper to buy, but if we manufacture them using goods from the EU they're more expensive. The fact exports are doing well indicates we've managed this balance well. For now. But when we leave the Single Market and trade tariffs are added to the price of our goods which we may sell to the 520m people in the Single Market? And are we a manufacturing economy or a service and banking economy?

 

Perhaps that too was because of Greece and Portugal's failure to analyse economic indicators and manage their economy and economic deals successfully rather than the idea they were 'due' a recession, the invisible hand getting a bit slappy every so often.

 

I've had these arguments with a few decent academics over the last few months so I'd be more than happy to do it again here and I would if I didn't have the important matter of revision I would spend a good while replying to you. You're almost an EU propaganda machine, in fact you're proof that the EU is killing globalisation by creating a herd of EU obsessives who only see the EU.

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Strokes said:

It looks like bursaries for nurses are making a comeback as we have to fill the gap left by EU migrants. Skills for British people and important jobs, for people previously left on the scrap heap. That's what brexit will achieve.

 

Has there been any announcement of plans to restore the bursary?

All I can see is coverage of the 23% drop in applications for nursing degrees due to its removal: e.g.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/02/students-turn-backs-nursing-degrees-wake-government-decision/

Corbyn has called for it, but we all know that he's unlikely to be in No. 10.

 

Some action is urgently needed. Also, whatever else Brexit leads to, I seriously hope that they quickly reach a reciprocal agreement guaranteeing residency for EU citizens performing such jobs (& for Brits on the continent). If not, even more EU nurses might leave: an aging population; EU nurses leaving; 23% drop in applications; 4+ years to train up extra nurses.....we need urgent action or this could become a real disaster.

 

[Jon the Hat]

49 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Has there been any announcement of plans to restore the bursary?

All I can see is coverage of the 23% drop in applications for nursing degrees due to its removal: e.g.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/02/students-turn-backs-nursing-degrees-wake-government-decision/

Corbyn has called for it, but we all know that he's unlikely to be in No. 10.

 

Some action is urgently needed. Also, whatever else Brexit leads to, I seriously hope that they quickly reach a reciprocal agreement guaranteeing residency for EU citizens performing such jobs (& for Brits on the continent). If not, even more EU nurses might leave: an aging population; EU nurses leaving; 23% drop in applications; 4+ years to train up extra nurses.....we need urgent action or this could become a real disaster.

 

Nursing would be top of the list I expect for jobs which come with a Visa/ work permit.  Lets not pretend we haven't recruited loads of non-EU foreign nurses as well perfectly happily. Not least my wife who is an excellent Australian trained nurse.

[Jon the Hat]

On 4/21/2017 at 23:55, Foxxed said:

Inflation is up, that's the point.

 

Not only is inflation up, but retail spending is down:

 

 

Less than one year after Brexit, with effects on the pound, and uncertainty about the economy, both inflation is up and retail spending is down.

 

An increase in prices. And a decrease in spending. A weaker pound. Less than a year after Brexit.

 

A few posts ago you suggested a recession wouldn't happen since it didn't happen directly after Brexit. And now you're saying it's bound to happen.

 

Edit: I'm not in France, friend. I'm close than you think! (Also, they'll probably have Le Pen and their own problems fairly soon, I'd wager)

Inflation is up a little, and we have had a crap quarter, which could still be revised upwards I think.  It's a bit soon to be crying disaster over retail sales in my view, and my business (often a leading indicator of FMCG due our position in the supply chain) has seen pretty crap sales in Southern Europe in the past few months, so we may not be alone in this.

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Jon the Hat said:

Nursing would be top of the list I expect for jobs which come with a Visa/ work permit.  Lets not pretend we haven't recruited loads of non-EU foreign nurses as well perfectly happily. Not least my wife who is an excellent Australian trained nurse.

 

I hope and believe that you're right. 

 

But we clearly have a growing problem at the moment: shortages, some EU nurses apparently leaving, 23% fall in applications for nursing degrees since the bursary was removed...and an aging population and knock-on problems from a social care crisis.

 

Hopefully we'll quickly negotiate an agreement over reciprocal EU/UK residency rights, will restore the bursary, will continue to issue visas to qualified EU and non-EU citizens, and will increase the number of UK citizens taking qualifications (though that will take 4-5 years to feed through). None of that has happened yet, however....

[Jon the Hat]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

I hope and believe that you're right. 

 

But we clearly have a growing problem at the moment: shortages, some EU nurses apparently leaving, 23% fall in applications for nursing degrees since the bursary was removed...and an aging population and knock-on problems from a social care crisis.

 

Hopefully we'll quickly negotiate an agreement over reciprocal EU/UK residency rights, will restore the bursary, will continue to issue visas to qualified EU and non-EU citizens, and will increase the number of UK citizens taking qualifications (though that will take 4-5 years to feed through). None of that has happened yet, however....

I completely agree, and there is clearly something to be done in increasing nursing training.  Its not the first time weve screwed it up, hence the massive need for foreign nurses in the first place.

[Guest]

The problem with all these 

5 hours ago, Strokes said:

It looks like bursaries for nurses are making a comeback as we have to fill the gap left by EU migrants. Skills for British people and important jobs, for people previously left on the scrap heap. That's what brexit will achieve.

Politics does my head in...You have pro Labour or pro Conservative propaganda from the papers/news sites....made up promises, manifesto's from goverment and then the average joe jumping on whatever bandwagon they like telling me how I should vote

 

 

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

On ‎21‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 23:55, Foxxed said:

Inflation is up, that's the point.

 

Not only is inflation up, but retail spending is down:

 

 

Less than one year after Brexit, with effects on the pound, and uncertainty about the economy, both inflation is up and retail spending is down.

 

An increase in prices. And a decrease in spending. A weaker pound. Less than a year after Brexit.

 

A few posts ago you suggested a recession wouldn't happen since it didn't happen directly after Brexit. And now you're saying it's bound to happen.

 

Edit: I'm not in France, friend. I'm close than you think! (Also, they'll probably have Le Pen and their own problems fairly soon, I'd wager)

Inflation is always moving up and down, and always has, and always will, Brexit, or no Brexit

[Thracian]

5 hours ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

Inflation is always moving up and down, and always has, and always will, Brexit, or no Brexit

I don't think Foxxed is very keen on Brexit. And yet some opposed to Brexit will willingly vote for a guy who'd facilitate a £10 an hour minimum wage, never mind what that would do for inflation and never mind the truism that it's not how many £'s an hour you earn so much as what those pounds will buy - and for how many people - given that a whole lot of employees would be shed if businesses became unprofitable.

 

I notice the gloom merchants have nothing to say about the economic impact of being able to tap billions of founds worth of shale and other gas both onshore and off, once we come to our senses and start getting on with the job of getting at it..

 

And even some of the "negatives" mentioned actually offer opportunities for our existing residents, who should never have been neglected or disadvantaged in the first place. If anyone seriously believes people are not going to be keen to trade with the UK, they're bad-dreaming.

 

I said little or nothing about economic upsides after the Brexit decision because I knew there'd be swings and roundabouts, some with UK dimensions and others related much more to other events.

 

But will Brexit actually happen. I'm still not convinced. There are so many cancers eating against the idea but it has to happen for me. Britain needs to be a leader instead of a follower again even a leader only of itself - and I hope France is starting to feel the same.

 

Maybe a new form of European co-operation will evolve because it needs to and quickly if anything is to remain in 10 years time.

 

But there'll need to be some radical re-thinking and I don't mean Corbynism and that kind of road to ruin although that doesn't mean there doesn't need to be a whole lot more incentive for the advancement of lower income people and improved aspirational opportunities for those people and their families.

 

And that should centre on an emphasis of responsibility involving everyone.

 

The nation for its citizens (their health, fitness, education, opportunities etc), the people for their families and those they work for and employers for their staff and their local communities to quote a few examples.

 

As I've always said about human rights - it's a flawed concept without human responsibility. And right now too many responsibilities for our communities are being neglected all round.

 

We can set an example to others but can only be responsible for our own communities because the wider responsibilities become the more the system is stretched and the weaker it becomes, resulting in the demise of many an empire throughout history and now blatantly apparent in the creaking of the EU. .       

 ..