Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

You would surely only have 15 Tory MP's at the most who would vote for that? The DUP wouldn't, Labour Brexiteers wouldn't. 

 

Given the constituencies they hold it would surely scare about 70-80 Labour backbenchers as well.

 

Don't real see how it could command a majority and I doubt either side would want to put it forward to the house.

 

 

You might be right. But one or other "unlikely scenario" will become reality - because there is currently no "likely scenario".

 

You're right that only a small number of Tories actively like the idea of a 2nd referendum.

But it seems likely that MPs will face a choice between Election, Referendum and No Deal.

I'm making certain assumptions: (i) that May's deal will be rejected; and (ii) that the EU will only consider renegotiation and/or an Article 50 extension if the UK has made beneficial changes to its Brexit strategy (e.g. accepting a Norway deal, including free movement, or a Canada deal that resolves the Irish border issue, maybe accepting checks on trade across the Irish Sea.....possible but unlikely, as neither seems to command a parliamentary majority).

 

I don't see No Deal happening as almost all Labour/Opposition MPs reject it and so do a very large number of Tories, probably a majority.

Corbyn would prefer an election, but I think even fewer Tory MPs want that than would want a referendum. I haven't heard a single Tory MP ask for an election.

 

I'm not suggesting that a majority of MPs support a second referendum as a great solution. But faced with an effective choice between No Deal and Referendum, with the clock ticking down, I can see them opting for the latter.

[stripeyfox]

3 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Brexit really does bring out the worst in people. 

 

Normally thoroughly decent Leicester fans who'd happily share a beer before the game, end up slagging each other off and falling out on here over it.

 

What a shame.

It is incredibly divisive and I think it will get worse regardless of the outcome. In my office of 20 ish people, I was the only one to Vote Remain. But now most of them are either swapped sides or realising this is not what they voted for!
 

 

[wurmer]

Literally the only certainty in all of this, is that it's a total bloody mess!

[Guest Foxin_mad]

2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I linked it weeks ago for... I forget his name, the idiot Tory who lives in Stoke.

That will be me then . Kinder caring politics at its best, gotta love the left! Cant wait for the day mad commie Corbyn gets in and his team of kind caring lefty individuals 'educate' us or send us to the gulags. 

 

Are you serious telling me Stoke-on-Trent is now remain too?

 

Anyone can produce a nonsense poll to support a nonsense argument.

 

 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

You're right that only a small number of Tories actively like the idea of a 2nd referendum.

But it seems likely that MPs will face a choice between Election, Referendum and No Deal.

I'm making certain assumptions: (i) that May's deal will be rejected; and (ii) that the EU will only consider renegotiation and/or an Article 50 extension if the UK has made beneficial changes to its Brexit strategy (e.g. accepting a Norway deal, including free movement, or a Canada deal that resolves the Irish border issue, maybe accepting checks on trade across the Irish Sea.....possible but unlikely, as neither seems to command a parliamentary majority).

 

I don't see No Deal happening as almost all Labour/Opposition MPs reject it and so do a very large number of Tories, probably a majority.

Corbyn would prefer an election, but I think even fewer Tory MPs want that than would want a referendum. I haven't heard a single Tory MP ask for an election.

 

I'm not suggesting that a majority of MPs support a second referendum as a great solution. But faced with an effective choice between No Deal and Referendum, with the clock ticking down, I can see them opting for the latter.

As far as I can see the the choice is going to be May's Deal or No Deal? The house doesn't actually vote on whether to block No Deal, it's what we revert to if the meaningful vote on her Deal is defeated? I'm pretty sure this is why she is sticking with it.

 

Can you find anything that says a rejection leads to a vote on No Deal?

 

Even in event of a "people's vote" - why would it be binding? The proponents of this have been telling us for two years the first referendum wasn't binding. 

[Kopfkino]

On 14/11/2018 at 14:51, Alf Bentley said:

 

I cannot imagine that Parliament would withdraw its Article 50 notice to leave (if the ruling upholds this option) without calling either a referendum or an election. That would risk public outrage about lack of democracy even greater than is likely with a referendum, and would leave the public even more alienated from our democratic politics than they already are. It could also stimulate a rise in Far Right politics and could lead to street violence by a minority.

 

 

9 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I don't see No Deal happening as almost all Labour/Opposition MPs reject it and so do a very large number of Tories, probably a majority.

Corbyn would prefer an election, but I think even fewer Tory MPs want that than would want a referendum. I haven't heard a single Tory MP ask for an election.

 

 

I don't understand what you think will happen then. You don't imagine Parliament withdrawing A50 but No Deal won't happen because most of Parliament rejects it. Does it all hang on a a second referendum which quite frankly there isn't now time for before we leave in March, let alone would it solve anything.

 

 

[Izzy]

7 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

It is incredibly divisive and I think it will get worse regardless of the outcome. In my office of 20 ish people, I was the only one to Vote Remain. But now most of them are either swapped sides or realising this is not what they voted for!
 

 

I can only surmise that peoples irrational behavior over Brexit is driven by fear - the most powerful of human motivators.

 

We haven't changed that much as a species over the last 100,000 years really. People will do or say whatever it takes to survive and keep them and their families safe.

 

The more people sense that their jobs and livelihoods might be at risk from Brexit, the more fearful they become and then they come out in 'fight' mode in order to survive.

 

It's fascinating to watch it all unfold and see how people behave when they don't get what they want. Our need for certainty and control as human beings is as high as it's ever been.

[Buce]

12 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

That will be me then . Kinder caring politics at its best, gotta love the left! Cant wait for the day mad commie Corbyn gets in and his team of kind caring lefty individuals 'educate' us or send us to the gulags. 

 

Are you serious telling me Stoke-on-Trent is now remain too?

 

Anyone can produce a nonsense poll to support a nonsense argument.

 

 

4

 

 

No offence, but I never signed up to the kinder, gentler politics crap - politics is adversarial by nature.

 

I'm not telling you anything, the poll is; it's your choice whether you believe it or not.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

As far as I can see the the choice is going to be May's Deal or No Deal? The house doesn't actually vote on whether to block No Deal, it's what we revert to if the meaningful vote on her Deal is defeated? I'm pretty sure this is why she is sticking with it.

 

Can you find anything that says a rejection leads to a vote on No Deal?

 

Even in event of a "people's vote" - why would it be binding? The proponents of this have been telling us for two years the first referendum wasn't binding. 

 

1 minute ago, Kopfkino said:

I don't understand what you think will happen then. You don't imagine Parliament withdrawing A50 but No Deal won't happen because most of Parliament rejects it. Does it all hang on a a second referendum which quite frankly there isn't now time for before we leave in March, let alone would it solve anything.

 

I agree that the initial outcome of May's deal being rejected is to leave us on track for No Deal - and that this is partly why May still thinks she might be able to get her deal through. That vote probably won't allow No Deal to be blocked.

 

But then, faced with the looming reality of No Deal, Parliament will be able to find a way to avoid it - and there does seem to be a large majority for that. I'm imagining subsequent legislation to call a referendum and to apply for an Article 50 extension. In those circumstances, it's surely very likely that the EU would agree an extension, with the prospect of the UK potentially staying in the EU. Of course, there's still the case pending before the ECJ (early December, I think?) as to whether the UK can unilaterally reverse its Article 50 notice - which I can only imagine it doing with popular approval at a referendum, not parliament alone.

 

Although technically the first referendum wasn't binding, the vast majority of people - including most Remain voters - accepted the result of the referendum, while regretting it (me included). But that assumed there would be some vaguely sane negotiated outcome. Vast majority acceptance assumed (a) a Deal, not No Deal; (b) A deal that was vaguely sane, rather than signing us up indefinitely to a customs zone and abidance by EU rules with no say in those rules. That changes everything. As you know, while I voted Remain, I've always opposed a second referendum until now. I also don't assume that a referendum would produce a Remain outcome - and do believe that a vote for either May's deal or No Deal would be accepted. Whatever happens, there is bound to be ongoing strife to some degree - and maybe there'd be another referendum 5, 10 or 20 years down the road, but I couldn't imagine it happening sooner than that.

 

[Buce]

33 minutes ago, MattP said:

I read that - it was a poll that said they all wanted a people's vote, and by amazing coincidence - the poll was commissioned by the people's vote campaign. 

 

As I said at the time - at no point in it did it claim there was a majority for Remain, it claimed it had a majority for a second referendum, which was hardly surprising given how the question was worded. 

 

26 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

That will be me then . Kinder caring politics at its best, gotta love the left! Cant wait for the day mad commie Corbyn gets in and his team of kind caring lefty individuals 'educate' us or send us to the gulags. 

 

Are you serious telling me Stoke-on-Trent is now remain too?

 

Anyone can produce a nonsense poll to support a nonsense argument.

 

 

 

Here's another poll (taken overnight) for you be in denial about:

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/first-poll-since-brexit-deal-voters-want-a-new-referendum-a3990851.html

[stripeyfox]

16 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

I can only surmise that peoples irrational behavior over Brexit is driven by fear - the most powerful of human motivators.

 

We haven't changed that much as a species over the last 100,000 years really. People will do or say whatever it takes to survive and keep them and their families safe.

 

The more people sense that their jobs and livelihoods might be at risk from Brexit, the more fearful they become and then they come out in 'fight' mode in order to survive.

 

It's fascinating to watch it all unfold and see how people behave when they don't get what they want. Our need for certainty and control as human beings is as high as it's ever been.

Yeah, perhaps my finger wagging rant at everyone at work yesterday saying "you fckers voted for this mess - I told you at the time what a bunch of Daily Mail racist morons you were" wasn't the best side of me.....

[Buce]

 

Looking like they have the 48 letters required:

 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

Here's another poll (taken overnight) for you be in denial about:

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/first-poll-since-brexit-deal-voters-want-a-new-referendum-a3990851.html

That poll is nothing to do with what you said.

 

You claimed a poll showed all Labour constituencies now back Remain, which as anyone who knows the slightest things about politics will tell you is complete nonsense. 

[Buce]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

That poll is nothing to do with what you said.

 

 

I didn't claim it was.

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

Looking like they have the 48 letters required:

 

 

 

Ken Clarke was almost welcoming this prospect & couldn't believe the ERG people would be so stupid, as he was convinced that May would win the confidence vote - keeping her safely in post for another 12 months.

[Buce]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Ken Clarke was almost welcoming this prospect & couldn't believe the ERG people would be so stupid, as he was convinced that May would win the confidence vote - keeping her safely in post for another 12 months.

 

In post as leader, yes. 

 

As Prime Minister, highly debatable. 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

8 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 

Here's another poll (taken overnight) for you be in denial about:

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/first-poll-since-brexit-deal-voters-want-a-new-referendum-a3990851.html

I am not in denile. As we know I wanted remain, still do the EU is good for business.

 

I can accept that public opinion has changed. What I dispute is that every Labour area is now remain, it is simply not true or likely in most cases particularly in the North.

 

The proposals being put forward by Labour would also never ever be accepted by the EU, its cloud cuckoo politics as are most thing suggested by Corbyn, his team and his supporters.

 

Its a joke to see most Labour MPs and supporters ridiculing the deal May has put forward, given the circumstances this is the best she can get on the basis of what the public voted for and what is in the best interests of the country in terms of jobs etc.

 

The realistic options are:

 

Hard Brexit

This Deal

No Brexit

 

That has always be the case. The Labour party can talk from the opposition about any kind on pie in the sky deal they like but it will NEVER be accepted by the EU.

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

@MattP

 

In contrast to what I just said about Parliament calling a referendum to avoid No Deal, New Statesman suggests that this is within the control of the Govt, not Parliament: 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/11/it-s-true-there-no-majority-no-deal-brexit-may-not-matter

 

May will doubtless continue her mantra until the vote on her deal: My Deal or No Deal (though even she has mentioned No Brexit as an option).

 

If her deal is rejected, though, would she or a replacement PM be able to refuse a parliamentary vote on a second referendum if it seemed to have majority support?

There would be outrage both in parliament and among the public, if so.

That is presumably why Grieve was saying that if the Govt refused a vote on a referendum, that was the one thing that could produce a general election: i.e. Tories who supported a referendum rather than No Deal would vote no confidence in their own govt in those circumstances.

[Buce]

3 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

I am not in denile. As we know I wanted remain, still do the EU is good for business.

 

I can accept that public opinion has changed. What I dispute is that every Labour area is now remain, it is simply not true or likely in most cases particularly in the North.

 

The proposals being put forward by Labour would also never ever be accepted by the EU, its cloud cuckoo politics as are most thing suggested by Corbyn, his team and his supporters.

 

Its a joke to see most Labour MPs and supporters ridiculing the deal May has put forward, given the circumstances this is the best she can get on the basis of what the public voted for and what is in the best interests of the country in terms of jobs etc.

 

The realistic options are:

 

Hard Brexit

This Deal

No Brexit

 

That has always be the case. The Labour party can talk from the opposition about any kind on pie in the sky deal they like but it will NEVER be accepted by the EU.

 

 

 

I agree with large parts of that, and the tiniest part of me has some sympathy for May - she was always going to be in a no win situation. 

 

But I also think it should be put to the electorate that this is the best we can do and are you sure you still want to leave. 

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

In post as leader, yes. 

 

As Prime Minister, highly debatable. 

 

Agreed, but Parliament would have to pass a 2/3 vote calling an election or a majority no-confidence vote in the Govt, triggering an election (or potentially a power handover to another PM - Gove, Javid or Corbyn?).

 

Mind you, even if she wins a Tory party confidence vote in her leadership, if her Brexit policy is defeated she might feel obliged to resign and let someone else pursue an alternative (though she might plough on...).

[Strokes]

@Buce‘s poll could well be right, it’s not inconceivable people would want a second referendum so they can reject TMs fudge deal.

I’d rather remain/no deal/Canada/Norway than this shit.

This is the bad deal that’s no deals better than, let the people tell her what they think.

[urban.spaceman]

 

[davieG]

1 minute ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

Do you think the interviewer heard a word she was saying, they did well to not break out laughing, Monty Python would be impressed.

[Guest MattP]

20 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

@MattP

 

In contrast to what I just said about Parliament calling a referendum to avoid No Deal, New Statesman suggests that this is within the control of the Govt, not Parliament: 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/11/it-s-true-there-no-majority-no-deal-brexit-may-not-matter

 

May will doubtless continue her mantra until the vote on her deal: My Deal or No Deal (though even she has mentioned No Brexit as an option).

 

If her deal is rejected, though, would she or a replacement PM be able to refuse a parliamentary vote on a second referendum if it seemed to have majority support?

There would be outrage both in parliament and among the public, if so.

That is presumably why Grieve was saying that if the Govt refused a vote on a referendum, that was the one thing that could produce a general election: i.e. Tories who supported a referendum rather than No Deal would vote no confidence in their own govt in those circumstances.

We could be in political purgatory for some time.

[Alf Bentley]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

We could be in political purgatory for some time.

 

Then, if there is some sort of a divorce deal agreed, we spend the next 5-10 years haggling over the details of the future EU-UK relationship....with the long-term future of the Irish border still an issue.

 

I had to find the old quote by Churchill, post-WW1: "The whole map of Europe has been changed … but as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again" 

 

Anyway, lots to talk about as, regardless of outcome, the Brexit debate continues for the rest of all our lives.....specially dedicated to @Izzy Muzzett