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surrifox

Hurricane Irma

By surrifox, in General Chat

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Bayfox

Bayfox

Posted
Posted

Say bye to Florida as well, if that corrected, current path is anything to go by, Disney will be one big Blizzard beach water park when it's done, feel for those running from Miami to Orlando in the hope it's calmed down, but I fear they may be doing it in vein it's just chasing them.

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stripeyfox

stripeyfox

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Bayfox said:

Say bye to Florida as well, if that corrected, current path is anything to go by, Disney will be one big Blizzard beach water park when it's done, feel for those running from Miami to Orlando in the hope it's calmed down, but I fear they may be doing it in vein it's just chasing them.

Was on the phone to a Disney rep in Orlando last night. She was like "meh, it's a hurricane. we're used to them"

 

 

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Bayfox

Bayfox

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

Was on the phone to a Disney rep in Orlando last night. She was like "meh, it's a hurricane. we're used to them"

 

 

Oh i know they have plenty, but these winds have hit 200 mph and are currently around 175 mph that's seriously strong, plus they say a 20 ft storm surge could hit when it arrives, plus whatever other rain it dumps, Florida is flat as, that could cause some damage, plus Jose is heading in behind potentially, they may have to ride both out before they can think of any rescue or rebuilding.

 

I know they happen all the time, but worrying times if you have friends or family out there.

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LcFc_Smiv

LcFc_Smiv

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Bayfox said:

Say bye to Florida as well, if that corrected, current path is anything to go by, Disney will be one big Blizzard beach water park when it's done, feel for those running from Miami to Orlando in the hope it's calmed down, but I fear they may be doing it in vein it's just chasing them.

Wouldn't expect too much damage to the likes of Disney, places like that are built to withstand hurricanes, id assume they have protocols for their attractions. Got to remember that most of the islands it has hit don't have proper structures in place for the majority of their buildings. Major concern appears to be Miami where there's a lot of construction on beach front skyscrapers with a lot of cranes and non-complete structures in place.

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Bayfox

Bayfox

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, LcFc_Smiv said:

Wouldn't expect too much damage to the likes of Disney, places like that are built to withstand hurricanes, id assume they have protocols for their attractions. Got to remember that most of the islands it has hit don't have proper structures in place for the majority of their buildings. Major concern appears to be Miami where there's a lot of construction on beach front skyscrapers with a lot of cranes and non-complete structures in place.

Disney was more about the amount of water it could dump on a place already filled with lakes etc. Do they still have the alligators etc roaming about, could end up like sharknado lol 

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LcFc_Smiv

LcFc_Smiv

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bayfox said:

Disney was more about the amount of water it could dump on a place already filled with lakes etc. Do they still have the alligators etc roaming about, could end up like sharknado lol 

I was thinking that, although apparently they have measures in place for their lakes. Supposedly Orlando is raised compared to the surrounding areas? You would never guess it looking at the place. Aye I wouldn't be too comfortable wading around in knee height water with the local wildlife!

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stripeyfox

stripeyfox

Posted
Posted

Latest bulletin from National Hurrican Center (sic)

  

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Microwave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an
eyewall replacement cycle.  A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi
wide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening.  The
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in
the outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the
125-130 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 135 kt.

Irma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear
environment for the next 36-48 h.  The intensity guidance shows a
slow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at
least a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida.  After
landfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to
land interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind
field is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large
area.  There are two caveats to the intensity forecast.  First, some
additional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,
followed by re-intensification as the cycle completes.  Second, the
ECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the
coast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.
If this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along
the later parts of the track.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14.  Irma should
maintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves
along the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge.  After that
time, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break
and allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward.  There
remains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,
with the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and
the UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side.  The ECMWF, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle
of the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best
agreement with those models.  Overall, the new forecast track is
similar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments
at 36 and 48 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through
Saturday.  Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of
Hispaniola through today.  Hurricane conditions will also spread
over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.

2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night.
Irma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous
major hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind
impacts to much of the state.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
southern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida
Bay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central
Florida.

3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the
Florida Keys.  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of
life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from
the coastline, during the next 36 hours. This is a life-threatening
situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and
the potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm
Surge Watch has been issued north of the Storm Surge Warning area
for portions of the central Florida coast.

4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify
the magnitude and location of these impacts
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Redouane

Redouane

Posted
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15 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

US President Donald Trump said he and his aides were monitoring Irma's progress. "But it looks like it could be something that will be not good," he told reporters at the White House. "Believe me, not good."

 

Yeah, thanks for that Donald.....

And here we were thinking it was nothing 

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Jattdogg

Jattdogg

Posted
Posted

Absolute insanity. My wifes aunt and family live in west palm beach and have no idea if they have evacuated but going to assume so.

 

Heart goes out to all those affected by these hurricanes (especially those in the Caribbean who got nowhere to run and hide really).

 

 

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Innovindil

Innovindil

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47 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

US President Donald Trump said he and his aides were monitoring Irma's progress. "But it looks like it could be something that will be not good," he told reporters at the White House. "Believe me, not good."

 

Yeah, thanks for that Donald.....

At least he told the truth for a change lol

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stripeyfox

stripeyfox

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Jattdogg said:

Absolute insanity. My wifes aunt and family live in west palm beach and have no idea if they have evacuated but going to assume so.

 

Heart goes out to all those affected by these hurricanes (especially those in the Caribbean who got nowhere to run and hide really).

 

 

Yeah, is always worrying when you know people. Sounds like they should be leaving or already left. But I suppose they're pretty well prepared. Imagine the advice below having to implemented here!
 

 

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - West Palm Beach - Boca Raton - Juno Beach - Jupiter * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 55-70 mph with gusts to 90 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday evening until Monday afternoon - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Efforts should now be underway to secure all properties. - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible. Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life, or immense human suffering. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 5-8 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins early Saturday evening - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for major storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above ground. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of extensive storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation efforts should now be underway. - Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant loss of life, or human suffering. Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally higher amounts - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for moderate flooding where peak rainfall totals notably exceed amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation. Rescues and emergency evacuations are possible. - To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of significant flooding rain impacts. - Dangerous flooding is possible. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life. If flood related watches and warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues. - Ditches and canals may quickly become swollen with swift currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures. *

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surrifox

surrifox

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Posted
2 hours ago, RowlattsFox said:

Devastating. Need to remember this next time I think about moaning about shitty weather and 'high' winds.

 

With some of the infrastructure on these Caribbean islands, they don't stand a chance when something like this happens.

 some of these are British dependencies and overseas territories we really need to show them some tangible support

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Smudge

Smudge

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ramboacdc said:

i know this is a bad hurricane but doesnt florida get a lot of these? is this like a bigger one than usual that will hit? i thought it was going to be a catagory 4 by the time it reached florida?

 

Florida hasn't had a hurricane in several years now, the last serious one, Andrew was in 1992. That went across the peninsular and into the Gulf, Irma looks like its heading right up it. Anyone who passes this off as a 'meh', is in for a big shock.

 

I experienced 4 hurricanes when I lived in Virginia, nothing higher than cat 2, trust me that was enough. After the second one I headed for the Blue Ridge and watched the events unfolding on TV

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Gary Eatfood

Gary Eatfood

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Posted
6 hours ago, Line-X said:

While Hurricane Jose is waiting in the wings - already category three and bearing down on the Lesser Antilles. 

According to the tracking on National Hurricane Centre Jose is predicted to turn right and may impact Bermuda but it won't come close the Florida coastline.

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Finnegan

Finnegan

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Smudge said:

Florida hasn't had a hurricane in several years now, the last serious one, Andrew was in 1992. That went across the peninsular and into the Gulf, Irma looks like its heading right up it. Anyone who passes this off as a 'meh', is in for a big shock.

 

I experienced 4 hurricanes when I lived in Virginia, nothing higher than cat 2, trust me that was enough. After the second one I headed for the Blue Ridge and watched the events unfolding on TV

 

Even if they had a hurricane every year, Irma is going to be one of the biggest storms to hit the mainland US in history. It is a big deal. Even if you deal with hurricanes all the top, a category five storm is like having a richter 9 earthquake or a volcano going off in the middle of your town. 

 

Stiff upper lip is one thing but anyone in the path of the storm is no doubt taking it seriously. You'd hope, anyway.

 

 

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