Our system detected that your browser is blocking advertisements on our site. Please help support FoxesTalk by disabling any kind of ad blocker while browsing this site. Thank you.
Jump to content
CosbehFox

The Race for 7th - Stats Galore

Recommended Posts

Nice work :thumbup:

 

I feel we are the best team involved in the race for 7th and the odds of it not opening up to 7th seem very short based on the possible permutations 

 

When was thr last time it didn’t open up to 7th place?

 

i am also trying to remember when a top 5 club didn’t win the FA cup/ league cup?

Edited by Wolfox
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With regards to permutation 4), I don’t think it would open up another spot. Looking at last season, United winning the Europa League meant they qualified for the champions league but if they had not have won it then they would have qualified for the Europa instead. With United’s triumph meaning they upgraded to the Champions league, their spot in the Europa League was not taken by someone else and England this season only had 2 Europa League places instead of the usual 3 to accompany the 5 champions league spots. I think it has something to do with the maximum number of teams a nation can have in European competitions which I believe in our case is 7

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think point 3 or 4 would lead to an extra spot. We get 7 European spots regardless of how they are divided up. So if we have 5 in the Champions League. ( Arsenal winning Europa League and not making top 4) I believe we then only get 2 Europa League spots.

Previous seasons finishes and points tallies have zero baring on this season as it's a new season, with many different scenarios at play.

Form on its own is not an accurate judge of future performance. It fails to take into account who teams have played, injuries, suspensions, players sulking off and refusing to play etc.

My apologies if this comes across as rude, not meaning to have a pop after it seems like lots of work has gone into the above.

The best way for European qualification is to win the FA Cup.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Wolfox said:

Nice work :thumbup:

 

I feel we are the best team involved in the race for 7th and the odds of it not opening up to 7th seem very short based on the possible permutations 

 

When was thr last time it didn’t open up to 7th place?

 

i am also trying to remember when a top 5 club didn’t win the FA cup/ league cup?

Well the 7th rule is relative new as UEFA took away the right of cup runners up being rewarded with an european spot ala Hull City 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

I don't think point 3 or 4 would lead to an extra spot. We get 7 European spots regardless of how they are divided up. So if we have 5 in the Champions League. ( Arsenal winning Europa League and not making top 4) I believe we then only get 2 Europa League spots.

Previous seasons finishes and points tallies have zero baring on this season as it's a new season, with many different scenarios at play.

Form on its own is not an accurate judge of future performance. It fails to take into account who teams have played, injuries, suspensions, players sulking off and refusing to play etc.

My apologies if this comes across as rude, not meaning to have a pop after it seems like lots of work has gone into the above.

The best way for European qualification is to win the FA Cup.

If you take the table as it is, 

 

point 3 - Arsenal go to CL making the existing top 4 and Arsenal as 5. 5th is Spurs meaning that’s 6 teams in europe - where’s the 7th come from? 

 

Point 4 - The EL and CL winners have an automatic spot to qualification for CL, this doesn’t negotiate one of the England spots. Still we’d have 5 in CL and 1 in EL. There’s a 7th spot free. 

 

See Everton last season - Edit: yes still dependent on the cup winners 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hope this thread does get updated, I have loved these types of threads over recent years.

 

I can guarantee that, as always in here, we will swing between wild optimism and dark dark Saturday evenings of pessimism.

 

Bring it on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

If you take the table as it is, 

 

point 3 - Arsenal go to CL making the existing top 4 and Arsenal as 5. 5th is Spurs meaning that’s 6 teams in europe - where’s the 7th come from? 

 

Point 4 - The EL and CL winners have an automatic spot to qualification for CL, this doesn’t negotiate one of the England spots. Still we’d have 5 in CL and 1 in EL. There’s a 7th spot free. 

 

See Everton last season - Edit: yes still dependent on the cup winners 

Thanks for clarifying, I see what you mean now and yes you are correct. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are 7 European spots up for grabs regardless and the top 6 will definitely take 6 of them (unless Arsenal collapse and drop out of the top 7 and fail to win the Europa League or League Cup). Therefore, the Europa League and Champions League winners business is irrelevant in our case as it all involves top 6 teams only. So basically we are fighting with other non top 6 clubs to get the last spot and that is, by UEFA’s rules, primarily accessible by winning the FA cup but should the cup winners already have an entry route into Europe (which Man United, Chelsea and Tottenham will have if it is one of them who wins the cup) then 7th Place gets the spot

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

 

 

If you use the past ten games form as indicative for the next 11 games, it would finish

7) Bournemouth 48

8) Everton 47

9) Leicester 45

10) Burnley 42 

 

Obviously this takes nothing into account regards the teams playing each other or the strength of their opponents. 

 

If it helps to put it into context, Burnley's last ten league games have included just 4 at home, and all of them were against teams in the top 4.  The rest of the season gives us 6 home games, all against teams that aren't in the top 4.  We're hopeful of getting a few more points.  Here's to the rest of the season!

Edited by dsr-burnley
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, fuchsntf said:

Am I the only one Just enjoying the season.

Great If WE got top 7,but unless we implode Out of the top 9.

I am quite Happy,with the Turn around,and the history of this season.

I am sure there are lots like you, just like there are a number of us that enjoy analyzing the points race and considering what the team will need to manage over their final games to wrangle a Europa spot.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Leicester remaining PL fixtures:

 

Stoke H - Win

Bournemouth H - Win

West Brom A - Draw

Arsenal H (Postponed) - Lose

Brighton A - Draw

Newcastle H - Win

Burnley A - Draw

Southampton H - Win

Palace A - Draw

West Ham H - Win

Spurs A - Lose

 

Projected: 19 Points

Comments: Slightly pessimistic outcome potentially drawing games away where we may expect to win (WBA - won on last three visits but they are in desperate need of points and tail end of the season, just a bad feeling, Brighton away - not easy to beat - massively improved since last played them and at their patch, Palace away where they have improved under Roy). Also predicted wins in all remaining home games except Arsenal - expect one of these may slip to a draw.

 

Burnley Fixtures

 

Southampton H - Win

Everton H (MASSIVE GAME) - Draw

West Ham A - Draw

Chelsea H (Postponed) - Lose

West Brom A - Draw

Watford A - Win

Leicester H - Draw

Stoke A - Win

Brighton H - Win

Arsenal A - Lose

Bournemouth H - Win

 

Projected: 19 Points

Comments: Lots of winnable games at home against Brighton, Bournemouth, Southampton etc, it really depends on THAT Everton game at home and how the away form copes against the likes of Stoke, Watford and WBA.

 

Everton Fixtures

 

Watford A - Draw

Burnley A - Draw

Brighton H - Win

Stoke A - Draw

Man City H - Lose

Liverpool H - Lose

Swansea A - Draw

Newcastle H - Draw

Huddersfield A - Win

Southampton H - Win

West Ham A - Draw

 

Projected: 15 points

Comments: Can only see them losing to Man City and Liverpool, lots will swing on lots of away games against the bottom half of the table - can't see them winning them all but equally could swing either way here.

 

Personally think we need to win our next 5 games before the massive Burnley away game (Stoke, Bournemouth, West Brom, Brighton and Newcastle) to go to Burnley with something to scrap for and then I think we have a much better chance of holding for remainder of the season. Also have to remember that our two final games could be Arsenal H and Spurs A with the FA cup postponement so I would love to be 6 points clear by that stage!

 

For all those saying how poor this season has been and mediocre, I've loved it - the chase to Europe is on!

 

We're on our way, we're on our way! To Europe, we're on our way!

How did we get there, we can't tell. Follow the boys and Claude Puel.

Pack your bags cause Leicester's on our way! :scarf:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...