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5 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Soubry has just hammered May, and rightly so.  Unfortunately, Cameron set this disaster in motion and we've made a complete hash of it ever since.  

Soubry stood on the Conservative manifesto to do this - she shouldn't be hammering anyone.

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54 minutes ago, Fox In The Box 90 said:

A second vote should be:

 

Remain

 

Vs

 

A DEFINED version of leave. (Ie one that doesnt promise all to everyone with lots of contradictions)

 

The whole issue was "leave" was never defined.

I think the majority of MP's would concur, if you look very closely at the word leave it actually means remain.

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26 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I think that Anna soubry’s speech on those responsible for the mess the country is in over brexit, about the ones that have lit the touchpaper, devided the country and skulked off into their hiding holes with their gold plated pensions and gold plated earnings away from politics earned through being a public figure , has hit the nail on the head for me. Who was actually baying for the uk leaving the eu before Cameroon offered a vote on it.. no one I know, and probably no one that any one else knows. I was quite happy with things the way they were , the eu never did anything wrong to me. Why is everyone now so interested in what is probably the most boring thing ever, British politics.

It’s a bit racist to blame Cameroon for it pal.

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37 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

There was an unconfirmed quote from Merkel this morning in which she said, 'no problem'.

 

Or I may have dreamed it...

You're dreaming about Merkel? 

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Just now, MattP said:

A few people seem to be saying this but I think it's rewriting history a little bit.

 

In 2014 UKIP became the first party for over 100 years aside from the big two to win a national election in the EU ones - they then won 3.8 million votes at the next general election a year later and that figure would certainly have been more had Cameron not promised an In/Out referendum.

 

Since the signing of the Lisbon treaty this has been a big issue and I don't think we can pretend it wasn't. 

Id assume you voted leave which is your decision, but how do you think brexit will make YOUR life better than it is now?

 

Only ways i can really see are those invested in growing markets, those still going down the "sovereignty" route which remains mostly undefined, or genuine racists which i assume you definitely are not one.

 

Edited by Fox In The Box 90

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21 minutes ago, Strokes said:

It’s a bit racist to blame Cameroon for it pal.

Spellchecker, I meant to put w*nker

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14 minutes ago, MattP said:

A few people seem to be saying this but I think it's rewriting history a little bit.

 

In 2014 UKIP became the first party for over 100 years aside from the big two to win a national election in the EU ones - they then won 3.8 million votes at the next general election a year later and that figure would certainly have been more had Cameron not promised an In/Out referendum.

 

Since the signing of the Lisbon treaty this has been a big issue and I don't think we can pretend it wasn't. 

Bang on.In fact you could go back to when freedom of movement became a reality 14 years ago.

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Now talk of a third vote on May's deal?  lol

 

The numbers simply are not there to get anything through.  She was finished the moment she lost all those seats in the last election.  It's simple.  No numbers, no chance.

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18 minutes ago, Fox In The Box 90 said:

Id assume you voted leave which is your decision, but how do you think brexit will make YOUR life better than it is now?

 

Only ways i can really see are those invested in growing markets, those still going down the "sovereignty" route which remains mostly undefined, or genuine racists which i assume you definitely are not one.

I don't know if it will make my life better, If you believe in the total independence of the nation state though you would have been keen to see that enacted.

 

A Labour government would probably make me better off now - but I wouldn't dream of voting for them whilst it remains in the state it's in.

 

1 minute ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Now talk of a third vote on May's deal?  lol

 

The numbers simply are not there to get anything through.  She was finished the moment she lost all those seats in the last election.  It's simple.  No numbers, no chance.

If the DUP and ERG come on board she has got the numbers.

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1 hour ago, Dr The Singh said:

DavieG post is right, this is a stage show for remainers to remain with a charade of making out they are doing what democracy dictates.

 

I put money in it, we will remain, and those remain MP's will have fooled the public

 

There are only 2 routes to Remain: for the Govt to revoke Article 50 (almost zero chance) or for parliament to vote for a 2nd referendum - and there's no sign of a majority for that, quite apart from all the complications and delay required to do that - and the distinct possibility that a 2nd referendum could produce another Leave vote.

 

I reckon Remain is one of the least likely outcomes. No Deal, May's Deal or a Soft Brexit Deal are all more likely, I think.

 

1 hour ago, davieG said:

What I don't understand and I believe you can't  take it off the table but if we end up with a no deal due to the erg/dup alliance we will end up with a hard border anyway.

I also don't see how they or Corbyn can get a better deal than May's deal.

 

If  they don't want a hard border or at least the likelihood of one it's surely now down to Remain or May's deal.

 

There are other routes to avoiding a hard border:

- An alliance between Labour, other opposition parties and Tory moderates for a Soft Brexit deal (permanent Customs Union and a few elements of the Single Market would avoid a hard border). There are already almost enough MPs who'd be happy with that outcome, though it would require a few more Tory moderates to vote against the bulk of their own party and a few hardline Remainers to accept Soft Brexit. Would also require an extension - but the EU would almost certainly agree to that.

- In theory, a Canada-type Hard Brexit deal could work if the Tories were prepared to shaft the DUP and accept checks on food/animals crossing between GB and N. Ireland plus some inland checks. No sign of the ERG wanting to do that and the Tories currently have no majority (though a few Labour Brexiteers could support that). If there was an extension for a general election and the Tories did well, it might become more viable.... 

 

1 hour ago, Heathrow fox said:

Yes it was only a 52 48 split but take away London and you get a lot closer to the constituency figure.Which is why Labour going down the 2nd ref route is lunacy.

 

 

I didn't dispute the constituency figure. I've not checked it but know that it's true that a disproportionately high number of constituencies voted Leave. That's because there were a small number of areas (mainly London, Scotland and most of N. Ireland) where Remain won big. There were fewer constituencies in which Leave won big, but a lot more constituencies in which it won more narrowly (50-60%).

 

That could indeed be an argument for it to be lunacy that Labour wants an election. I'd agree with that. Though elections aren't single-issue contests, an election any time soon would be dominated by Brexit in a way that the 2017 election wasn't. That, together with Corbyn's unpopularity makes an election a stupid idea from Corbyn, I think (and I'm an inactive party member).

 

The fact that Leave won a lot more constituencies is not an argument against a 2nd referendum, though. Because a referendum isn't counted by constituency. It's counted nationally - you could conceivably get a situation where Leave won more constituencies but Remain won the national vote....in which case, Remain would win. Much as I wish we'd voted Remain first time, though, I'm still opposed to a 2nd referendum, unless it's the only feasible alternative to No Deal/Bad Deal. A 2nd referendum would be so toxic and divisive, so difficult and time-consuming to organise, potentially riven with lies and corruption - and there's a pretty strong chance of another Leave vote, anyway. I'd still prefer a Soft Brexit deal, I think.

 

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

 

These two parts of your post don't square off. 

 

The ballot paper indeed didn't give any form of Brexit so how is there no mandate for no deal?

In fact the people voted to leave the EU, for which process is invoking Article 50, which provides the for the default position being No Deal. 

MPs voted to invoke article 50 for which the default position is No Deal. 

MPs passed the Withdrawal Act which commits us to leave on the 29th March, two years after invoking article 50, at which the default position was No Deal.

 MPs twice voted against the Withdrawal Agreement, one of only two ways to prevent No Deal and crucially the only way to prevent No Deal and still Brexit. 

 

 

Now that argument has an element of sophistry, but you cannot say the first part and then say the last part. You or I might not like it but there is as much a mandate for No Deal as there is for any other form of Brexit and there is certainly more of a mandate for it than remaining in the EU. If you don't want No Deal, write to your MP and get them to sodding well vote for the WA that will be needed for any Brexit that isn't No Deal (possibly apartfrom EEA/Efta).

 

I accept your point, to an extent. Though supporters of a 2nd referendum could make the same claim if parliament votes for another referendum.

 

Yes, parliament voted for No Deal as the default - and that will happen in 16 days if nothing else is approved (alternative deal, referendum, extension etc.). Hopefully something will intervene, but it's hard to argue that it would be undemocratic if it doesn't. It would be disastrously bad politics, but democratic after a fashion.

 

But, although the ballot paper was no more specific than Leave/Remain, back in 2016 almost nobody anticipated either No Deal or a 2nd Referendum. So, either would be controversial and neither has a popular mandate - even though No Deal currently has parliamentary approval as the default option, and a 2nd Referendum could conceivably obtain parliamentary approval (though I'm not expecting that to happen).

 

The vast majority of the public expected a negotiated Brexit deal of some sort. What should have happened is a cross-party compromise. Instead, May put party unity before national interest (like Cameron before her) and tried to delay and be ambiguous to keep narrow control and then tried to push through a deal with only the support of her own party and the DUP.....and the ERG/DUP shafted her (so far), leaving her - and us - in a pickle.

 

 She clearly still thinks that she can get her deal through parliament in extremis, as others bottle out to avoid No Deal or No Brexit. But, to have any chance of doing that, she'll surely need miraculously rapid persuasive powers as the EU won't agree an extension if they think she's flogging the same old deal....unless she can show that she's close to getting it through parliament.....and 149 votes ain't close.

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7 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

If the DUP and ERG come on board she has got the numbers.

 

It would be close, but I wouldn't be so sure....

 

She lost by 149 so would need 75 MPs to reverse their votes (ignoring abstentions for the purpose of simplification).

 

75 Tories and 10 DUP opposed her last time.....but I just looked at the list of Tory opponents and at least 8 were identifiable Soft Brexiteers, not ERG (possibly more that I'm unaware of). Plus there are bound to be at least a handful of hardliners who will never vote for her deal. Of course, she'd also hope to win over a few more Labour MPs worried about No Deal.....only 3 Labour MPs backed her yesterday, which is surprisingly low.

 

Would be close - and might yet happen.

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5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

It would be close, but I wouldn't be so sure....

 

She lost by 149 so would need 75 MPs to reverse their votes (ignoring abstentions for the purpose of simplification).

 

75 Tories and 10 DUP opposed her last time.....but I just looked at the list of Tory opponents and at least 8 were identifiable Soft Brexiteers, not ERG (possibly more that I'm unaware of). Plus there are bound to be at least a handful of hardliners who will never vote for her deal. Of course, she'd also hope to win over a few more Labour MPs worried about No Deal.....only 3 Labour MPs backed her yesterday, which is surprisingly low.

 

Would be close - and might yet happen.

There are 15-25 Labour ready to vote for the deal when it gets close.

 

If the ERG move they will too - they just won't take the abuse they'll get until they know they have enough to win the vote. 

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

I don't know if it will make my life better, If you believe in the total independence of the nation state though you would have been keen to see that enacted.

 

A Labour government would probably make me better off now - but I wouldn't dream of voting for them whilst it remains in the state it's in.

 

If the DUP and ERG come on board she has got the numbers.

If you believe in the total independence of the nation state what do you think of the WTO, the IMF, the UN, the ICC?

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Just now, theessexfox said:

If you believe in the total independence of the nation state what do you think of the WTO, the IMF, the UN, the ICC?

Let's leave cricket out of this for now. 

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

There are 15-25 Labour ready to vote for the deal when it gets close.

 

If the ERG move they will too - they just won't take the abuse they'll get until they know they have enough to win the vote. 

 

I can believe that more Labour MPs could switch. Whether 15-25 is right, I've no idea, though it doesn't sound way out.

 

Tom Newton-Dunn, who usually seems quite a shrewd judge, was on Newsnight. He thought it could be close but that she wouldn't win 3rd time round. He thought that 20-25 Hard Brexiteers would never vote for her deal.

As if on cue, a couple piped up to say pretty much that - Baker & Trevelyan. Of course, lots of people say lots of things and change their minds, but that Attorney-General Cox's legal interpretation is quite hard for them to overlook.

 

Newton-Dunn (?) even spoke of an ERG hardcore joining with Corbyn to pass a vote of no confidence in the govt to bring it down and trigger an election, if May's Deal looked like succeeding. That really would be an evil alliance of convenience!

 

She'll need to change minds quickly to succeed. If she has no Plan B, I presume that the EU will only agree an extension next week if she's at least got very close to getting her deal through parliament.

In the meantime, there'll be attempts to pass amendments for Soft Brexit and a 2nd referendum, I presume - possibly tomorrow, amending the motion to request an extension?

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