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blaaklint

Goalkeeper statistics

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21 minutes ago, RumbleFox said:

So basically, sign Pope? X 

Basically, give Ward a chance.

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49 minutes ago, RumbleFox said:

So basically, sign Pope? X 

Basically. He’s brilliant at shot-stopping and very good at coming for balls. He’s even decent with his feet. Probably the best, most complete keeper in the PL.

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There is a table for “positive outcome” in terms of distribution.

 

is there one for “negative outcome”!

 

For example: how often does Schmeichel boot the ball into touch and hand over possession? How often does he attempt a quick move and throw the ball away - leading to a buttock clenching moment? 

 

That’s more my worry with him atm. 

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9 minutes ago, Jobyfox said:

There is a table for “positive outcome” in terms of distribution.

 

is there one for “negative outcome”!

 

For example: how often does Schmeichel boot the ball into touch and hand over possession? How often does he attempt a quick move and throw the ball away - leading to a buttock clenching moment? 

 

That’s more my worry with him atm. 

No there isn’t, which was one of my concerns. I think it’s probably much harder to judge though. If there was, I think we’d see exactly the opposite of what the positive outcomes show.

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In all seriousness Kasper has been one of our greatest ever 'keepers and he is a club legend but we should be looking for a replacement in the next few years.  Could Ward be that person?  Not sure to be honest but last season I thought we should sign Pope and I still feel the same.  Or, at the very least, we should hire whoever did that report to make one for the Championship/overseas leagues and try and hunt out a gem.  Of course statistics are not the be all and end all but they are an extremely useful tool for at least spotting trends or potentials.  Good stats mixed with good interpreters of stats are extremely useful.  X

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A shame so much of it was written in Greek, I didn't study classical languages at all, and struggle with my native English due to  a Leicester Birthplace.

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 Kasper's time on the naughty step is overdue. We have had very poor replacements up until we got Ward so give him the chance he deserves. Not in cup games that the boss didn't care about. Then we can view his stats and I think that they could be as good as Kasper's. If so Kasper would have to up his game. Also Ward would probably leave if he didn't get his chance and that would be such a shame.

Edited by bss9401

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Among the few things we as a forum agree on, are the “Kasper rules”.

 

   - Excellent shot stopper

   - Absolutely poop at commanding his box on crosses and set plays

   - Inconsistent and sometimes terrible with distribution

 

Here come the statheads telling us pretty much the opposite lol

 

What this proves for me, is that turning the complexities and 22 independent variables of a football match into apples-to-apples statistics, will take long years and will never be a perfect science.  These guys are making progress controlling for all that.  With more and more calculus equations that are total Greek to 99% of us.

 

So I’m not willing to abandon my eye-test opinions on Kasper quite yet.  But I am more willing to give Ward a shot. 

 

What meets our eye, and we remember, is not the whole story.  We have a tendency to remember that which reinforces our existing opinions.  The idea of these stats is to add an unbiased viewpoint, tease out patterns too subtle for most human minds, and supplement (not replace) the judgment of the best minds.

 

The “stats are meaningless” folk will always ignore that early adoption of advanced stats in recruitment was one reason little old Leicester was able to identify and acquire the likes of Kante-Vardy-Mahrez for next to nothing.

 

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17 minutes ago, KingsX said:

Among the few things we as a forum agree on, are the “Kasper rules”.

 

   - Excellent shot stopper

   - Absolutely poop at commanding his box on crosses and set plays

   - Inconsistent and sometimes terrible with distribution

 

Here come the statheads telling us pretty much the opposite lol

 

What this proves for me, is that turning the complexities and 22 independent variables of a football match into apples-to-apples statistics, will take long years and will never be a perfect science.  These guys are making progress controlling for all that.  With more and more calculus equations that are total Greek to 99% of us.

 

So I’m not willing to abandon my eye-test opinions on Kasper quite yet.  But I am more willing to give Ward a shot. 

 

What meets our eye, and we remember, is not the whole story.  We have a tendency to remember that which reinforces our existing opinions.  The idea of these stats is to add an unbiased viewpoint, tease out patterns too subtle for most human minds, and supplement (not replace) the judgment of the best minds.

 

The “stats are meaningless” folk will always ignore that early adoption of advanced stats in recruitment was one reason little old Leicester was able to identify and acquire the likes of Kante-Vardy-Mahrez for next to nothing.

 

That’s the thing: the stats tell us that Kaspar concedes more than he should. However, that’s not incompatible with Kasper saving some fantastic shots. For all we know, he might be conceding easy shots and saving hard shots, which would indicate that he has some ability, but is inconsistent. Statistics are interesting, but like you say: they’re not complete.

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18 minutes ago, KingsX said:

Among the few things we as a forum agree on, are the “Kasper rules”.

 

   - Excellent shot stopper

   - Absolutely poop at commanding his box on crosses and set plays

   - Inconsistent and sometimes terrible with distribution

 

Here come the statheads telling us pretty much the opposite lol

 

What this proves for me, is that turning the complexities and 22 independent variables of a football match into apples-to-apples statistics, will take long years and will never be a perfect science.  These guys are making progress controlling for all that.  With more and more calculus equations that are total Greek to 99% of us.

 

So I’m not willing to abandon my eye-test opinions on Kasper quite yet.  But I am more willing to give Ward a shot. 

 

What meets our eye, and we remember, is not the whole story.  We have a tendency to remember that which reinforces our existing opinions.  The idea of these stats is to add an unbiased viewpoint, tease out patterns too subtle for most human minds, and supplement (not replace) the judgment of the best minds.

 

The “stats are meaningless” folk will always ignore that early adoption of advanced stats in recruitment was one reason little old Leicester was able to identify and acquire the likes of Kante-Vardy-Mahrez for next to nothing.

 

At risk of sounding a bit 'told you so', I told you so... lol

I've always said his distribution isn't the disaster people claim that it is. Every now and again he'll arrow a particularly notable pass about 30 yards off the pitch, and it sticks out in people's memories. He'll repeat this every couple of games or so and all of a sudden people start to attribute it to him being a poor distributor. He absolutely isn't. We take for granted how brilliant the majority of his kicking is.

At the same time, I have become increasingly frustrated at some of the shots he's let in.

He's perfoming okay. Could we do better? Perhaps. Is he one of the biggest issues in our starting line up? Absolutely not.

Also, interesting to see those Pope stats. Thought he was unreal last season in general, but especially against us in the away game. Surprising he isn't getting a look in at Burnley even if he has had to come back from injury. Think he's England's best GK assuming last year wasn't a flash in the pan. Pickford has his issues.

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3 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

So, an offer in for Pope?

 

4 hours ago, RumbleFox said:

So basically, sign Pope? X 

And despite those stats, he'd still be relatively cheap, simply cos he's a Burnley player.

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9 minutes ago, gerrytaggart said:

He might not have the best distribution...but at least he's friendly.

20190305135013.jpg

Now we know why he couldn't stop Deeney ghosting in!

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The obvious conclusion to draw from those stats, looking at the pedigree of some keepers who are in and around Schmeichel in the placings vs. that of those who do really well in some of these charts (and based on our knowledge that he doesn't have a fantastic command of his area) is that the picture which emerges is unclear at best. You'd probably be better off not dropping Courtois, Ederson and Schmeichel (two of those were shortlisted for FIFA keeper of the year, for a start) for Pope, Lossl, Gomes or McCarthy, who on the face of it look better in some regards.

 

The distribution stats for this season can be looked at too, and they show Schmeichel's distribution (of which I've also been critical, and for years) to be better than most, even if part of that is that he's playing riskier balls to feet, rather than longer balls to nobody in particular. That's a tactical thing as much as an improvement on his part, and it brings pros and cons, and we saw that on Sunday. Someone also floated a stat at some point indicating that a lower percentage of goals come from his errors than for most other keepers, so some perspective is needed.

 

This discussion came about, in truth, because a group of people decided that Schmeichel is a dreadful person who gets managers fired at will, and not an especially good goalkeeper either. As regards the first point - the accusation that our star men are loathsome snakes is one I'd expect to see thrown about in the press, because it fits in with the great tragic fall from our fairytale peak, but it's a bit more unsettling when Leicester fans are behind it. In some instances, it's the same people who'll have you believe that - among other things - Vardy is also overrated and a traitor, Walsh wasn't a great scout, Puel seldom put a foot wrong, and Morgan is the cause of all our woes. I'm not sure how much validity these people have, especially when you see the level of bitterness, aggression and even hatred directed at Schmeichel at times.

 

But Schmeichel was never mentioned in the sackings of Sven, Pearson or Shakespeare. In the case of Ranieri and Puel, there were unsubstantiated stories (and in the Ranieri case, rubbished stories) and the business of his father speaking out in a pundit's capacity, and yet his commitment hasn't been at fault, nor that of the other demonised old boys like Morgan and Vardy. I'd argue both of those managers did enough to undermine themselves, and that in some cases you'd expect players who cared for the club to raise question marks. There has never been discontent on the scale you've seen at other clubs, nor anything unprofessional. The accusations are based on conjecture.

 

The critics based their case largely on him costing us a lot recently, when what we're really talking about is an error here and there and performances which secured us a couple of points against Brighton, and cost us a 4th goal against Palace, and a point against Watford. It's hardly damning stuff. 

 

I'm all for discussion, even if it's critical, but it shouldn't slip into people being hysterical, bitter and unreasonable. My only suggestion would be that we put in a fraction of the energy we spend on slating our legendary players, scrambling for evidence of blame with very little justification (and in many cases precisely the opposite), into actually behaving like Leicester City fans for once. Because at times it feels like Forest or Spurs fans are trolling the forum.

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9 hours ago, Sly said:

 

It’s an over the season average. 

 

So Pope was worth 17.7 more goals saved over Kasper. That’s pretty damming. 

 

Kasper is also woeful, if not the worst in the league under pressure with the ball at his feet.

 

It’s amazing what the money ball approach shows you. 

 

Something worth mentioning however, Mark Warbuton uses this type of analysis lot. It hasn’t  really worked for him long term. 

 

Will Brendan do a Pep and bun him off, ala Pep / Hart.

Does he?

 

I know the Brentford chairman Matthew Benham does and it's worked well for them. The football code is a very good read and discusses his work. I was under the impression Warburton left because he didn't like managing under those circumstances.

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I am not a huge kasper fan... . Hes not dominant. .... he is impetuous and should have known better then play a risky ball in added time.   He has handed br the right to drop him if he wants to assert authority. ... unless kaspers keeness to meet with brenden has compromised this already.

Imo rogers has bigger issues right now. .. if I were him i would focus on fitness pressing,  speed of transition and finishing.  This summer he has big calls to make. .esp if chilly and or maguire are picked off.   He doesnt need to address the kasper issue. ... yet

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12 hours ago, Sly said:

 

It’s an over the season average. 

 

So Pope was worth 17.7 more goals saved over Kasper. That’s pretty damming. 

 

Kasper is also woeful, if not the worst in the league under pressure with the ball at his feet.

 

It’s amazing what the money ball approach shows you. 

 

Something worth mentioning however, Mark Warbuton uses this type of analysis lot. It hasn’t  really worked for him long term. 

 

Will Brendan do a Pep and bun him off, ala Pep / Hart.

I was having you on sly,

aapologies.

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8 hours ago, Nod.E said:

At risk of sounding a bit 'told you so', I told you so... lol

I've always said his distribution isn't the disaster people claim that it is. Every now and again he'll arrow a particularly notable pass about 30 yards off the pitch, and it sticks out in people's memories. He'll repeat this every couple of games or so and all of a sudden people start to attribute it to him being a poor distributor. He absolutely isn't. We take for granted how brilliant the majority of his kicking is.

At the same time, I have become increasingly frustrated at some of the shots he's let in.

He's perfoming okay. Could we do better? Perhaps. Is he one of the biggest issues in our starting line up? Absolutely not.

Also, interesting to see those Pope stats. Thought he was unreal last season in general, but especially against us in the away game. Surprising he isn't getting a look in at Burnley even if he has had to come back from injury. Think he's England's best GK assuming last year wasn't a flash in the pan. Pickford has his issues.

An opposition throw-in is pretty much the least worse bad outcome, if that makes sense. If he overhits it, they get a throw in which we have a pretty good chance of regainig the ball from. It’s the same thinking behind kicking-off with the long ball out wide.

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You need to believe what you see.

 

He thinks he 's untouchable.

 

As did Hart, Foster etc. Drop him and see if Ward gives us something better.

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21 hours ago, blaaklint said:

But the entire point of the use of PSxG is that it controls for position taken from, how many defenders are in the way, where the ball would have entered the goal, pace and so on.

 

A defender’s mistake makes no difference, since it’s the quality of the actual shot itself being measured. If a defender loses the ball and the attacker skies it, that says mothing about the keeper. If they take a shot down the centre of the goal from a long way with no pace, and a goalkeeper doen’t save it, the goalkeeper has underperformed, or, if the shot’s a screamer and is saved, the goalkeeper has overperformed.

 

Now, the most important number is indeed the score. But stats are interesting, if only because in the long run they even out and, in this case, attempt to quantitatively measure goalkeeper performance. The point is that, with a different keeper, some better shots might be saved and some worse shots let in.

My point was that statistics are easily manipulated to make them into whatever you want them to be.

 

To give an easy example would be to say if a goalkeeper saves 2 out of 4 shots he has 50% save rate. If he saves 3 out of 4 he has a 75% save rate.....an increase of 25%, making him look far better goalkeeper.

 

A screamer straight at the goalkeeper is over performance? But a long shot with no pace which takes an unfortunate deflection off the ground, or where a defender blocks the keepers sight, and the keeper has under performed? Do statistics show, or take into account, these type of incidents?

 

I don't disagree that statistics can be interesting, but they are also very misleading. At the end of a match they mean little. 27 shots v Cardiff?

 

Lost the game 1-0. It's the only statistic that matters!

 

 

.

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