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sdkessler

Kasper Schmeichel's Performance in Recent Years

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16 minutes ago, ttfn said:

Well I thought it was interesting.

 

Anecdotally I feel like we concede a lot of long-range goals which I’d suspect is what causes a lot of the variance. Whether this is Schmeichel’s fault or not I don’t know but the Optapro xGOT would suggest he’s not helping.

 

Obviously there’s much more to goalkeeping than stopping shots but it’s interesting that Kasper has a reputation as a great shot stopper and that doesn’t appear justified.

 

It would also be interesting to see his stats before and after Puel was sacked. Vardy’s xG per 90 mins weren’t starkly different between Puel and Rodgers but obviously his goalscoring picked up dramatically under Rodgers. Consciously or not he wasn’t finishing at his top level under Puel and I wonder if the same is true at the other end of the pitch for Schmeichel - whether the 2-3% you lose from your game simply by not liking/respecting your manager shows itself most in the big moments in games: chances for us or the opposition.

Using Understat and only this season.

Under Rodgers:

Vardy xG : 7.46

Vardy actual goals : 10

Vardy xG/90 : 0.68

xG conceded : 11.57

Actual conceded : 10

 

Under Puel:

Vardy xG : 11.66

Vardy actual goals : 8

Vardy xG/90 : 0.60

xG conceded : 33.07

Actual conceded : 38

 

Slight xG/90 improvement for Vardy. He was scoring far below his xG under Puel as well. Our expected goal conceded also vastly improved and we actually conceded less than expected under Rodgers. Take note that it's just a few matches so it doesn't have much statistical significance.

 

17 minutes ago, mozartfox said:

Kasper is a legend and great keeper.   Not sure about these stats as all EPL keepers play with difference defenses in front of them.   A keeper with great defenders playing in front of him should have better numbers?  The number of red cards is also a variant as should be the coach.

 

Very interesting but not convincing (as with all statistics!).

Actually, the point of the xG conceded metrics is to remove the defenses from the equation.

 

Good defence = low expected goals

Bad defence = high expected goals

Good goalkeeping = Less goals conceded than expected

Bad goalkeeping = More goals conceded than expected

 

From the Opta stats,

 

Lukasz Fabianski's stats are a great example of good goalkeeping + bad defence

Kepa Arrizabalaga's stats are a great example of slightly below average goalkeeping + good defence

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7 minutes ago, sdkessler said:

Using Understat and only this season.

Under Rodgers:

Vardy xG : 7.46

Vardy actual goals : 10

Vardy xG/90 : 0.68

xG conceded : 11.57

Actual conceded : 10

 

Under Puel:

Vardy xG : 11.66

Vardy actual goals : 8

Vardy xG/90 : 0.60

xG conceded : 33.07

Actual conceded : 38

 

Slight xG/90 improvement for Vardy. He was scoring far below his xG under Puel as well. Our expected goal conceded also vastly improved and we actually conceded less than expected under Rodgers. Take note that it's just a few matches so it doesn't have much statistical significance.

 

Actually, the point of the xG conceded metrics is to remove the defenses from the equation.

 

Good defence = low expected goals

Bad defence = high expected goals

Good goalkeeping = Less goals conceded than expected

Bad goalkeeping = More goals conceded than expected

 

From the Opta stats,

 

Lukasz Fabianski's stats are a great example of good goalkeeping + bad defence

Kepa Arrizabalaga's stats are a great example of slightly below average goalkeeping + good defence

Thanks!    But have things like the 'John Moss Factor' also been taken into account?  Inconsistent and incompetent Referees can cost goals and skew numbers.  Looks at Cardiff last season, well and truly done up like a kipper.

Edited by mozartfox

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8 minutes ago, Nickfosse said:

Fascinating stuff, thank you. 

I agree with those who say when you watch him every week you know his weaknesses. 

However, I think that Kasper brings something far more to the team that cannot be defined in stats and is so important when building a football team. An intense desire to win and to really care when you lose, and demand the best from those around you. I have family who work in professional football clubs and you’d be amazed how many footballers do not have that genuine passion for their team to thrive and succeed that Kasper has in spades. 

Exactly this.

 

Schmeichel is - and always has been - more than the sum of his parts. 

 

A reasonable and respectable goalkeeper but way way above average as a winning influence at the training ground, in the dressing room and on the pitch...he sets the standard

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Firstly thanks for the very interesting post and time/effort it must of taken. I think complacently may have crept in with Kasper. He's one of the old guard and a fan favourite. Over the years he's been a good servant to the club. His most obvious weakness to me is his distribution. Do all other keepers in the Prem kick the ball out of play/opposition as much as he does? Because it honestly feels like way too much for a professional keeper at this level. And defending corners can be problematic because of his height. He's not the tallest so he sometimes he tries to punch it out or he's either glued to his line, but he can't come and easily claim it. Personally thought shot stopping was always the strong aspect of his game though. He does pull off some great reflex stops.

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1 minute ago, mozartfox said:

Thanks!    But have things like the 'John Moss Factor' also been taken into account Inconsistent and incompetent Referees can cost goals and skew numbers.  Looks at Cardiff last season, well and truly dune up like a kipper.

It would increase the xG conceded for sure.

 

Penalties have an xG of about 0.78. So, everytime a penalty is awarded, 0.78 xG conceded will be added. However, if Schmeichel saves 1 in 5 penalties, it basically calcels out the difference. If he saves more than 22% of the time, the penalties actually improve his stats and vice versa

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Just now, sdkessler said:

It would increase the xG conceded for sure.

 

Penalties have an xG of about 0.78. So, everytime a penalty is awarded, 0.78 xG conceded will be added. However, if Schmeichel saves 1 in 5 penalties, it basically calcels out the difference. If he saves more than 22% of the time, the penalties actually improve his stats and vice versa

Thanks again.    Great stuff to read on a wet Saturday morning here in the ex. Third Reich!

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Thanks for this. Very interesting stuff. I don't think Kasper's shotstopping is bad however - what I do think it is is inconsistent. Sometimes his reaction saves are incredible. Other times he concedes "easier" goals. 

 

Edit: For example that last minute Camarasa goal from Cardiff from way outside the box. Yes it was top bins but Kasper had enough time to reset and save imo.

Edited by Nicolo Barella

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Stats, schmats. Base opinion on what you see when you watch them play. I think Schmeichel has been fantastic for us.

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7 minutes ago, Haywood_6 said:

Firstly thanks for the very interesting post and time/effort it must of taken. I think complacently may have crept in with Kasper. He's one of the old guard and a fan favourite. Over the years he's been a good servant to the club. His most obvious weakness to me is his distribution. Do all other keepers in the Prem kick the ball out of play/opposition as much as he does? Because it honestly feels like way too much for a professional keeper at this level. And defending corners can be problematic because of his height. He's not the tallest so he sometimes he tries to punch it out or he's either glued to his line, but he can't come and easily claim it. Personally thought shot stopping was always the strong aspect of his game though. He does pull off some great reflex stops.

You're welcome. I like discussing stats and tactics so it's all good. I too am surprised that his shot-stopping stats are pretty poor. I wouldn't have suspected it if I didn't have access to these stats.

 

I think that Schmeichel's distribution gets overestimated by commentators and underestimated by fans here. He kicks them out a lot because he tries to distribute to the fullbacks. In the modern pressing tactics, the fullbacks are usually the "free man". If done correctly, it helps us bypass a high press, one of our weaknesses. He did it pretty well against Man City recently. Even Guardiola acknowledged his distribution:

 

Just watch what Guardiola said from 1:00 for about half a minute. We did well against them in the first half because Schmeichel was neutralizing their biggest strength, their high pressing with his distribution. When done correctly, it is very effective. Unfortunately, he's just not very consistent with it.

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This is a great discussion backed up by some impressive stats.

 

Even as a Dane myself, I have always found him a bit overrated in terms of skill. He is vulnerable at set pieces and crosses, letting in way too many screamers and his distribution is just awful at times (remember Vicarage Road last minute anyone?). But what he really brings and what makes him a legend and a key member of this club is his passion and commitment to winning. That mentality oozes through him and brings focus and desire to the rest of the team and that kind of mentality is simply priceless and impossible to put a stat on.

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This is a case where I feel the stats are very misleading. Kasper makes the occasional mistake but all keepers do, eg Alison at the KP. Having watched the team every week since he’s been in the team I’m of the opinion that he’s still a great keeper and consistent too. And that’s not even taking into account things like leadership, etc. He’s definitely been better in some seasons than others (16/17 he was ridiculously good) but it’s rare that we lose a game and I think it’s because of him. Recent examples are the last minute winner conceded to Watford and Chelsea beating us in extra time in the FA Cup in Puel’s first season. He’s made other gaffes but not at an alarming rate. 

 

Also with regards to the top 6 not coming in for him, there have been enquiries. Just last season Chelsea were very interested but the fee we wanted for a keeper in his 30’s made them go for Kepa instead. I also believe the same was true of Roma. 

 

At some point it will be time to put someone else in between the sticks but I think we’ve got at least two seasons where that’s not an issue. 

 

Put it this way. If our biggest “problem” going into 19/20 is Kasper Schmeichel then it’s looking like it’s going to be a pretty good season. 

 

 

Edited by StriderHiryu
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1 minute ago, StriderHiryu said:

This is a case where I feel the stats are very misleading. Kasper makes the occasional mistake but all keepers do, eg Alison at the KP. Having watched the team every week since he’s been in the team I’m of the opinion that he’s still a great keeper and consistent too. And that’s not even taking into account things like leadership, etc. He’s definitely been better in some seasons than others (16/17 he was ridiculously good) but it’s rare that we lose a game and I think it’s because of him. Recent examples are the last minute winner conceded to Watford and Chelsea beating us in extra time in the FA Cup in Puel’s first season. He’s made other gaffes but not at an alarming rate. 

 

Also with regards to the top 6 not coming in for him, there have been enquiries. Just last season Chelsea were very interested but the fee we wanted for a keeper in his 30’s made them go for Kepa instead. I also believe the same was true of Roma. 

 

At some point it will be time to put someone else in between the sticks but I think we’ve got at least two seasons where that’s not an issue. 

I don't think the stats are misleading in this case. xG is a pretty well defined stat and tell you a better story than stats such as number of saves or clean sheets, which doesn't really tell you much. Opta's xGOT, for example, is a clear indication of goalkeeping quality, without the influence of striker's ability or luck and quality of defenses. It's also highly unlikely for all these reliable sources to be wrong on the same thing when they're pretty consistent with most other things.

 

Like I've said in this thread many times already, I didn't expect his shot-stopping stats to be so poor, but unfortunately, they are. From watching his games, I wouldn't think he's underperforming. I think that it may be because he performs really well in big games(world cup, champions league etc) and when under the spotlight but below average in the regular games. His stats are truly puzzling, but they're definitely not misleading.

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Personaly i dont care about the stats. Too many in the game for me. The only one i care about is the one at the end of 90minutes that matters.

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This mistrust of analytics is frustrating, he might not make many obvious mistakes but if the data is suggesting that we might be 5-10 goals better off with a better keeper then it’s something we’d have to investigate.

 

Schmeichel passes the eye test but over the course of a season the numbers rarely lie, anecdotally l think we concede a fair amount of goals a season where I think Schmeichel doesn’t get down to the ball quickly enough.  

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16 minutes ago, sdkessler said:

Correct. You're exactly right. That's why I've used multiple known sources and taken data over 3 seasons to try and minimize this variance. I don't have access to much data so this is the best I can do.

 

We will unfortunately never know how each company computers their xG as it is their secret so there's always a chance that it's incorrect. Different models also have slightly different results. However, they all suggest that Schmeichel is vastly underperforming his xG. It's unlikely for all of them to be wrong on this.

Then again.  They could all be wrong because they are stats of convenience that doesn't take in those variables...

I have always maintained that sporting stats,when valuating the participants themselves don't (yet) go deep enough..plus we are only the user and not the analysers of those  stats.,building blocks...

This has nothing to do with Kasper..

It's just all ball sports have their characteristics ,& variables that when analysing the stats for individuals ,other

Outside factors have reference....

Just on one single element of action.

 

Ie. Cricket. Seam bowling differences,

Between Anderson,Broad,and Boult,or why 2 balls bowled exactly the same by the same bowler,hitting the ground in the same spot at the same pace,reacts totally different...like Mike holding keeps telling Atherton...there is no exact science,and no stat now or in the future,will give you the answer..!!

 

I can be more bombastic against stats,than those who swear by them ..why???  Simply Because the same characteristic and variable,comes up with different results every single time...

The Xg....can use the same shot maker against the same GK.both doing exactly the same thing,the ball being hit exactly the same, bouncing in the same spot, but the mixed variables resulting in a different outcome....factor X!!

And in the entertainment sporting business..I couldn't care a flying fk.!!

Today each striker and Gk will analyse their own performances,and try to improve their "own foreseen" game.with

help from the coaching staff..If they succeed or fail is really the only stat that interests me,because it's only there they can be measured...goals scored or goals

Conceded from/with error count!

 

Like many I suppose I see Kasper a good to top GK,who's major weakness,

is not coming out of his 6 yard box to command his area..like Wallington,Banks, and Shilton.Though for me,in my eye a good shot-stopper &

1 on 1 a top GK....

I have maintained regularly on single gamedays we over analyse players mistakes....errors are part of the game,poor unconverted shots,mislayed

Passes,GK errors...should ofs a,could ofs..all part of the fun..just like statistics,but not by a long chalk, the b-end of it all..!!

 

 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, sdkessler said:

I don't think the stats are misleading in this case. xG is a pretty well defined stat and tell you a better story than stats such as number of saves or clean sheets, which doesn't really tell you much. Opta's xGOT, for example, is a clear indication of goalkeeping quality, without the influence of striker's ability or luck and quality of defenses. It's also highly unlikely for all these reliable sources to be wrong on the same thing when they're pretty consistent with most other things.

 

Like I've said in this thread many times already, I didn't expect his shot-stopping stats to be so poor, but unfortunately, they are. From watching his games, I wouldn't think he's underperforming. I think that it may be because he performs really well in big games(world cup, champions league etc) and when under the spotlight but below average in the regular games. His stats are truly puzzling, but they're definitely not misleading.

Well we will have to agree to disagree then! 

 

Leicester City are infamously big on their use of statistics and data. A new head of analytics was even appointed over the summer. Analysis was used to identify Albrighton (high chance creation despite perceived value), Huth (high aerial clearance rate) and Kante (tackling and interceptions). Over the last 5 years we’ve only ever brought in backup goalkeepers and given Kasper a new contract. I think you are making a mountain out of a molehill. 

 

Also so here’s a statistic for you. At the start of the 15/16 season Leicester City football club were 5000/1 to win the premier league. That’s less than a 1% chance. They won it by 10 points. 

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2 hours ago, Foxhateram said:

Not this again!  Every goalkeeper has weaknesses, Kasper's strengths lie in his outstanding leadership, 1:1 rushing and incredible shot stopping (the graph your using has to be incorrect on this, I can think of so many games he kept us in). His distribution is risky, so can go wrong, but if goalkeepers distribution counted as assists for starting attacks he'd be well up there.

 

 

The long range efforts stat comes from the fact that we play deep and therefore teams resort to a lot of long range efforts to try and score. Hense Kasper experiences more and therefore, despite saving a lot, still ends up with a poor stat. Let's face it I can think of 4 or 5 worldies at least that no keeper is ever saving. The Man city one comes to mind immediately. 

 

I think these statistics charts are often total trash. The time it would take to trawl through game footage to actually do this reliably would seriously take longer than the days between each match. They are predictions at best.

I don't think you can totally trash statistics as they are often used by many player recruitment teams like our own. If you remember,  they were notoriously used quite a while back by Steve Walsh and helped in the identification of a player such as Kante. 

 

Can such statistics be used and abused or simply misread?  I would think it possible but then you would also like to think that those that refer to them professionally now how to interpret them correctly. I do agree however that they in a way are a guide and there's no substitution for proper scouting which I'm sure is employed in tandem.

 

Schmeichel indeed does have some leadership qualities that on the surface appear reminiscent of his father. However his father was a far better goalkeeper and on occasions Caspar comes across more like a gobby lower league player when he rants at his defensive colleagues for a mistake that was of his own making. There's sometimes for me, more ego and showmanship in his rants than constructive leadership! 

 

I agree with you that he had made some absolute worldies, but the odd worldie here and there or great shot stop can't paper over the cracks of other deficiencies that are more likely to effect overall the course of a game or games over a season. And yes, I'm sure every goalkeeper has his weaknesses but since he got here, there doesn't appear to be any evidence of Caspar working on his.

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Kasper's heroics over the years have won us many more games than he's lost us.

 

That's the only stat I care about.

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3 hours ago, Clever Fox said:

I've never thought he was much better than average. His failure to command his area is his biggest flaw. This has lead to him not being poached by the big Clubs.

How many times did Morgan and Huth save him in games. The one area where he does excel is saves with his feet. I think he;s the best in the league with his feet.

Strangely the problem with the long range shots is that he doesn't shift his feet quickly enough and tends to dive from the center of the Goal Added to his lack of height for a GK.

How many times has he been targeted by opposition teams also

Then again he does have the Ear of the owners it seems, Which puts Rogers in a difficult place..

 

The little I've seen of Ward I think he is a better all round Keeper and can go on to be better with more game time. I wouldn't be surprised if this was Kaspers last season as first choice. He should be given more opportunities this season.

 

De Gea by a country mile

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4 hours ago, sdkessler said:

I'm been inactive for 2 years. I last used this account to discuss a 3-4-3 formation built around Maguire shortly after Leicester signed him. People weren't really interested as he was a new player back then. Fast forward 1 year and he won player of the year. I knew how good he would become because of stats.

 

You might not remember the guy in here a while back who suggested he was the stat master and then quoted incorrect stats lol

 

However, you seem to put a lot more effort into your posts, so I think you'll be a bit better than he was. 

 

I didn't *actually* think you were Eldin, you know.  :)

 

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I think generally people still have the opinion that Kasper is a good shot stopper because I think historically he has been and he has saved us serious points.

 

However, I think he is past his peak and the last couple of seasons I have seen us concede more goals from shots I've expected him to save than in previous seasons.

 

I'd be interested to see what the stats suggested about his shot stopping going further back. Either way, I think solely relying on stats/solely relying on your eyes/memory is not the best approach. You need to factor in both to get the best picture of what is happening.

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5 minutes ago, ajthefox said:

I think generally people still have the opinion that Kasper is a good shot stopper because I think historically he has been and he has saved us serious points.

 

However, I think he is past his peak and the last couple of seasons I have seen us concede more goals from shots I've expected him to save than in previous seasons.

 

I'd be interested to see what the stats suggested about his shot stopping going further back. Either way, I think solely relying on stats/solely relying on your eyes/memory is not the best approach. You need to factor in both to get the best picture of what is happening.

Definitely need to use both stats and eyes when scouting. Also tactical know-how. There's no point in recruiting the best tackler in the league if you don't  know how to make use of it.

 

Unfortunately, data analytics is pretty new so it's hard to find much stats going further back, especially xG stats.

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2 hours ago, mozartfox said:

Kasper is a legend and great keeper.   Not sure about these stats as all EPL keepers play with difference defenses in front of them.   A keeper with great defenders playing in front of him should have better numbers?  The number of red cards is also a variant as should be the coach.

 

Very interesting but not convincing (as with all statistics!).

Thank You. I quoted you because stats piss me off. I understand their value to a point. So many variables unmeasured that make a difference.

Quantifying things with numbers is the same as words. A step removed from the real thing. Important judgements made by subjective observation and bias.......like feeling.

Kasper saved us from losing that Chelsea match at home last season. When was that full field assist to Vardy?

Rodgers knows how to get the best out of his goalkeepers. From what I'm seeing so far Kasper is fitting in exactly with Rodgers vision. Long may it continue.

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2 hours ago, Stadt said:

This mistrust of analytics is frustrating, he might not make many obvious mistakes but if the data is suggesting that we might be 5-10 goals better off with a better keeper then it’s something we’d have to investigate.

 

Schmeichel passes the eye test but over the course of a season the numbers rarely lie, anecdotally l think we concede a fair amount of goals a season where I think Schmeichel doesn’t get down to the ball quickly enough.  

You could pull up facts about all of our starting 11 that would give us more goals scored, more chances created, more saves/block/tackles made if we were to get better players on all of those 11 positions but that would cost us the same as Man City have spent. 

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