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The case for Top 4!

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40 minutes ago, Woof said:

I'll go with fivethirtyeight, they currently give us a 58% chance of top four

I’ll take them odds…. It’s on!

 

i understand they’re pretty accurate from our chat…

 

link to the stats

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

and pic of the table prediction 

 

 

9EDE1E14-1167-4247-85FD-369902E97EBA.png

Edited by Wolfox

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7 hours ago, StriderHiryu said:



 

Table.thumb.png.b59bd599f55f62969d662e0109df5ca4.png

 

How did Palace win their last game ?  and according to this table we lost at Southampton!

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3 minutes ago, Wolfox said:

How did Palace win their last game ?  and according to this table we lost at Southampton!

Left to right is the form not right to left 

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1 minute ago, Fox85 said:

Left to right is the form not right to left 

Gotcha…. Reads really weird to my eyes

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Odds for us to continue winning are quite strong toO

 

until we come up against Man City and Liverpool

 

 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

hit the matches tab….
 

Also explains how the make their predictions

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/

Edited by Wolfox

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11 hours ago, SO1 said:

Guarantee Rodgers will sound like a drone as we keep on winning. How many ways can you say one game at a time?

 

Allow me to quote the Maestro  :worship:

 

 

  • Haha 2

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Don't forget we've still got a core of players who know what it takes mentally to win a league title, so I can see them having a strong impact on the younger players around them and really giving them the confidence to go on and compete for top 4.

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15 hours ago, SO1 said:

Rodgers really protected Liverpool 13/14 from the crazy hype that surrounded it. Lose a match and they were up for it 110% the next. No drop off.

Guarantee Rodgers will sound like a drone as we keep on winning. How many ways can you say one game at a time?

Claudio did it for an entire season!! 

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10 hours ago, Wolfox said:

How did Palace win their last game ?  and according to this table we lost at Southampton!

I think most recent is the furthest left on that chart isn’t it? We’ve won 3 in a row. Burnley, Southampton, Palace.

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10 hours ago, Wolfox said:

Odds for us to continue winning are quite strong toO

 

until we come up against Man City and Liverpool

 

 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

hit the matches tab….
 

Also explains how the make their predictions

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-club-soccer-predictions-work/

The only issue I have with this, is that it’s statistics based.

 

Look at the Liverpool matches

 

Everton - home - 9% chance of losing

Leicester - away - 24% chance of losing

Manchester United - Home - 13% of losing

Tottenham - away - 23% chance of losing

Everton - away - 22% chance of losing

Arsenal - away - 23% chance of losing

Chelsea - home - 22% chance of losing

 

It doesn’t factor in, when terms will raise their game. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Sly said:

The only issue I have with this, is that it’s statistics based.

 

Look at the Liverpool matches

 

Everton - home - 9% chance of losing

Leicester - away - 24% chance of losing

Manchester United - Home - 13% of losing

Tottenham - away - 23% chance of losing

Everton - away - 22% chance of losing

Arsenal - away - 23% chance of losing

Chelsea - home - 22% chance of losing

 

It doesn’t factor in, when terms will raise their game. 

 

 

 

 

It is statistics based… that’s what it does

 

look into their methodology -  it has quite a strong records of being quite accurate…. They start with a position in August and moderate based on performances…. There quite a lot of data (stats) assimilated to give % probability 

 

58% is quite a strong prediction at this stage of the season compared with surrounding teams

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An article on the BBBC sent me checking where we were 19 years ago. We were 3rd, with 22 ppints. I feel a bit sick. Need a good win tomorrow.

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an easy way to see if their predictions are any good would be to compare their match odds with bookies odds.

If their % are good and accurate, by betting matches when the site % is bigger than the bookie you will win money

Southampton 2/1

Villa 7/2

Spurs 4/6

Newcastle 7/4

Man Utd 8/11

Man City 15/8

Liverpool 13/8

 

All these teams would be bets tomorrow, obviously seven bets would be not conclusive, but if you did the bets each week after 50 or 60 bets you would have an idea whether the site is all hype or the real deal

Edited by treer

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Man city and lpool are about evens.... we are only a few points off city with two thirds of the season to go... and we are getting better.

I just put 25 quid on us to win the title at 60 to 2 with paddy power.   Get on it.

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1 hour ago, foxinsocks said:

Man city and lpool are about evens.... we are only a few points off city with two thirds of the season to go... and we are getting better.

I just put 25 quid on us to win the title at 60 to 2 with paddy power.   Get on it.

Good odds that. I only got 30/1

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1 hour ago, HighPeakFox said:

60/2? Really? 

Whoops 60 to 1... but 20 back if I lose so my first bet of 25 will only cost 5... to win 1500 so that's effectively  300 to 1.... 

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3 minutes ago, Bourbon Fox said:

It's Scotch today, it's definitely half empty and I'm almost out of cheese

 

I read a book that said to maximise a pleasure you should take a break and come back to it again and again... so you enjoy the anticipation and the initial reaction over and over.

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