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42 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I assume your figure of 24 ERG voting against is accurate. It certainly looks accurate, as 34 Tories voted against, but some of them were second-referendum types.

So, while the 34 Tory votes would have been enough to pass May's Deal, the 24 ERG votes would not.

 

However, 10 DUP MPs also voted against that final reading. So, if the 24 ERG + 10 DUP had voted the other way, May's Deal would have passed.

The vote would have been 320-310 in favour, instead of 286-344 against.

 

So, it is true to say that Brexit would have already happened, had it not been for the opposition of those ERG & DUP MPs.

 

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-03-29/division/B6052BBD-43BE-4A30-8365-E3A8B108009E/UnitedKingdom’SWithdrawalFromTheEuropeanUnion?outputType=Party

 

Of course, I've never denied that.

 

That isn't what the post I replied to said. He said we would have left had the ERG voted for it and that's a myth often spouted even by presenters on the BBC, but it's simply not true.

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17 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

No pal, *that's* simplistic.

 

Leaving was never going to be easy. Anyone who ever believed it was is deluded.

That depends on what you define as easy I guess. I think we can agree there were plenty of things that could’ve been done before, during and after the referendum, that would’ve have made leaving much, much easier. Even if we don’t agree on all the specifics.

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1 hour ago, Strokes said:

That depends on what you define as easy I guess. I think we can agree there were plenty of things that could’ve been done before, during and after the referendum, that would’ve have made leaving much, much easier. Even if we don’t agree on all the specifics.

Easier, yes. But this was never going to be an easy process however it was carried out.

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5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Of course, I've never denied that.

 

That isn't what the post I replied to said. He said we would have left had the ERG voted for it and that's a myth often spouted even by presenters on the BBC, but it's simply not true.

 

No problem. I was just clarifying.

 

But it's an important point if we end up in a Blame Game. Maybe that won't happen. Maybe there'll be a deal.

 

But there's much expectation that Johnson/Cummings' whole strategy revolves around a blame game: when negotiations collapse without a deal, blame the EU, the judges/elite/London & the "Remainer Parliament" for thwarting Brexit, as a means of winning a majority at a divisive election & possibly heading towards No Deal and a deregulated UK.

 

In that context, it's important to keep stating the facts:

- That the vast majority of Remain/Soft Brexit MPs have voted for one or other form of Brexit

- That May's Deal would have passed without the opposition of the ERG & DUP, who held out for a Harder Deal or No Deal

 

Tbf, I know that you have occasionally criticised intransigence on the Tory Right.......but the message is already widespread that "Anti-Democratic Remainers prevented Brexit, so total power to Boris & No Deal now!"

We could hear an awful lot more of that very soon from Boris & mates and from the Tory press, so the lie needs to be nailed.

 

We all remember how powerful the PR was, over the past decade, promoting the lie that Labour over-spending, not the global crash, mainly caused the deficit/debt, necessitating austerity & the slashing of public services.

"Remainers stopped Brexit" could be another massive, ideologically-driven PR lie with devastating consequences for this nation. 

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27 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

No pal, *that's* simplistic.

 

Leaving was never going to be easy. Anyone who ever believed it was is deluded.

The irony of your comment is that the EU claimed that Article 50 was written in such a way as to make it “easy “for any country to leave without being held hostage by the EU itself  hence why the two year time scale. 
Add to that the withdraw agreement negotiated in line with Article 50 and in accordance with other EU articles only required a simple majority of the remaining 27 states yet that’s not how they have approached negotiations.

 

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33 minutes ago, Terraloon said:


Sorry but this is simplistic.

 

Leaving would have been easy if politicians had honoured the manifesto promises the majority of them got elected on their failures and their playing political games significantly undermined the UKs negotiating position there’s where the difficulty is.
 

Without the UKs net contributions the whole financial structure of the EU comes under significant pressure as it would if France and Germany withdrew but to dismiss the importance of the UK suits your take but it’s simply not the case.There is no way that significant budget cuts leading to a massive curtailment of the EU funding of projects wouldn’t have to follow the UKs withdraw that is unless the 6 or so other nett contributors increased their payments and that seems unlikely.

 

Even the arch Brexiters have stopped saying leaving is going to be easy.  I think that tells you all you need to know.  

 

Manifestos are what governments day they want to do, which isn't always realistic.  

 

The UK net contribution is 5% of the EU budget.  Important, but not worth undermining the EU principles for, or risking peace in Ireland

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1 hour ago, Terraloon said:

The irony of your comment is that the EU claimed that Article 50 was written in such a way as to make it “easy “for any country to leave without being held hostage by the EU itself  hence why the two year time scale. 
Add to that the withdraw agreement negotiated in line with Article 50 and in accordance with other EU articles only required a simple majority of the remaining 27 states yet that’s not how they have approached negotiations.

 

 

Can you source that quote for me please? Struggling to find any mention of it online.

 

I'm not naive enough to think the EU is all the sweetness and light it's made out to be by your #FBPE types, but all it has done in negotiations is try to protect the interests of its remaining members states. Surely you can accept has to be its first priority in all of this?

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16 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

No problem. I was just clarifying.

 

But it's an important point if we end up in a Blame Game. Maybe that won't happen. Maybe there'll be a deal.

 

But there's much expectation that Johnson/Cummings' whole strategy revolves around a blame game: when negotiations collapse without a deal, blame the EU, the judges/elite/London & the "Remainer Parliament" for thwarting Brexit, as a means of winning a majority at a divisive election & possibly heading towards No Deal and a deregulated UK.

 

In that context, it's important to keep stating the facts:

- That the vast majority of Remain/Soft Brexit MPs have voted for one or other form of Brexit

- That May's Deal would have passed without the opposition of the ERG & DUP, who held out for a Harder Deal or No Deal

 

Tbf, I know that you have occasionally criticised intransigence on the Tory Right.......but the message is already widespread that "Anti-Democratic Remainers prevented Brexit, so total power to Boris & No Deal now!"

We could hear an awful lot more of that very soon from Boris & mates and from the Tory press, so the lie needs to be nailed.

 

We all remember how powerful the PR was, over the past decade, promoting the lie that Labour over-spending, not the global crash, mainly caused the deficit/debt, necessitating austerity & the slashing of public services.

"Remainers stopped Brexit" could be another massive, ideologically-driven PR lie with devastating consequences for this nation. 

A lot of possible hyperbole and hypotheticals here - it's looking like a deal is going to be brought back for a start after weeks on end of the anti-Boris mob claiming he had no intention of even negotiating for one.

 

And Labour were overspending, even after years of a booming economy largely based on private credit we were still running budget deficits throughout the 2000's, they didn't cause the crash obviously - but it was still pretty reckless to never have an intention of running a surplus even in the most fruitful times.

 

But that's an old argument we've redone over and over again.

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1 hour ago, Winchesterfox said:

Michael Gove said it a couple of months before the referendum  :'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want'   One of the many lies Brexiter politicians told about how easy and advantageous leaving would be.  There are loads more on Google.

 

You're right that the UK is a net contributor, but there is no chance the EU will bend to UK demands that break its founding principles or undermine the Good Friday Agreement.  The days of empire and WWII are long gone.  We are not as powerful or as important to Europe as Brexiter politicians think we are.  

First point, he may well have said that however many of hours of debates were held and you are hanging on the words of one Politician, didn't hear that personally and certainly didn't influence my decision.

Second point that's an unfounded assumption.

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29 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

But it's an important point if we end up in a Blame Game. Maybe that won't happen. Maybe there'll be a deal.

 

 

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

A lot of possible hyperbole and hypotheticals here - it's looking like a deal is going to be brought back for a start after weeks on end of the anti-Boris mob claiming he had no intention of even negotiating for one.

 

And Labour were overspending, even after years of a booming economy largely based on private credit we were still running budget deficits throughout the 2000's, they didn't cause the crash obviously - but it was still pretty reckless to never have an intention of running a surplus even in the most fruitful times.

 

But that's an old argument we've redone over and over again.

 

Hard to avoid hypotheticals just now. As I said, maybe there'll be a deal but your claim that "it's looking like a deal is going to be brought back" could certainly be seen as hyperbole. Probably should be a bit more hypothetical!

 

I've often accepted that Labour could be criticised for running a small deficit while the economy was thriving on its watch (though there are arguments against). The big lie was that the deficit was mainly due to massively irresponsible Labour over-spending that required years of austerity & Tory Govt.

 

Over the last 40 years, the UK has run a budget deficit every single year, apart from 2 years in the 80s under the Tories and the first 4 years under Labour (from memory). Brown's deficit was lower than Major's and only slightly higher than Thatcher's.

 

As you say, though: old, over-done arguments.....anyway, Boris and Jezza are now agreed that there's no need for austerity and that's it's OK to spend like a drunken sailor and run up a massive deficit.... :whistle:

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46 minutes ago, Winchesterfox said:

 

The UK net contribution is 5% of the EU budget.  Important, but not worth undermining the EU principles for, or risking peace in Ireland

13%

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4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Hard to avoid hypotheticals just now. As I said, maybe there'll be a deal but your claim that "it's looking like a deal is going to be brought back" could certainly be seen as hyperbole. Probably should be a bit more hypothetical!

 

I've often accepted that Labour could be criticised for running a small deficit while the economy was thriving on its watch (though there are arguments against). The big lie was that the deficit was mainly due to massively irresponsible Labour over-spending that required years of austerity & Tory Govt.

 

Over the last 40 years, the UK has run a budget deficit every single year, apart from 2 years in the 80s under the Tories and the first 4 years under Labour (from memory). Brown's deficit was lower than Major's and only slightly higher than Thatcher's.

 

As you say, though: old, over-done arguments.....anyway, Boris and Jezza are now agreed that there's no need for austerity and that's it's OK to spend like a drunken sailor and run up a massive deficit.... :whistle:

Yep. It's crazy we've now just decided we can load as much debt onto ourselves as we wish without a care in the World. 

 

If you can't beat em join em!

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13 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

First point, he may well have said that however many of hours of debates were held and you are hanging on the words of one Politician, didn't hear that personally and certainly didn't influence my decision.

Second point that's an unfounded assumption.

One politician?

 

John Redwood - getting out of the EU can be quick and easy - the UK holds most of the cards

 

Liam Fox - the free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history

 

And so on...

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3 minutes ago, Strokes said:

13%

Actually I think it's 6 percent.  Net contribution = £8.9bn out of an EU spend of £154 bn.  Source House of Commons library.  Total EU budget =166bn euro.  Source EU website

 

What's your source?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Winchesterfox said:

Actually I think it's 6 percent.  Net contribution = £8.9bn out of an EU spend of £154 bn.  Source House of Commons library.  Total EU budget =166bn euro.  Source EU website

 

What's your source?

 

 

Sorry I’m on my phone at the moment, but it was fullfact and may have been gross contributions.

I’ll check the figures through on my lunch break.

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5 hours ago, Winchesterfox said:

One of the myths of Brexit is that we hold all the cards and can get a great deal.  We could be out by now if the Tories had chosen red lines that were achievable, but even then the deal would have been damage limitation.  It's taken three years for the government to work out that the EU27 are in a much stronger negotiating position. (Who would have thought that 27 countries in a club have more power than the one who signed up to the rules but now wants to leave?)  The reason there are talks now is because Boris is making concessions, not because the EU27 are afraid of no deal, which would hurt the UK infinitely more times than them. 

It is not unreasonable for the 5 or 6th largest economy in the world to expect better terms than say Canada is it? Hmm?

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27 minutes ago, Winchesterfox said:

One politician?

 

John Redwood - getting out of the EU can be quick and easy - the UK holds most of the cards

 

Liam Fox - the free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history

 

And so on...

When we actually start to talk about the Free trade agreement, there is no reason why it should be difficult.  

 

All this demonstrates is that the EU - far from being our friends - are doing their best to frustrate Brexit, or if it must happen to punish us as much as they can, regardless of the impact on the EU economy, because they want to protect their failing project.

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56 minutes ago, Winchesterfox said:

One politician?

 

John Redwood - getting out of the EU can be quick and easy - the UK holds most of the cards

 

Liam Fox - the free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history

 

And so on...

The FTA should be very easy.

 

Donald Tusk is on record as saying he wants one that is wide ranging and containing zero tariffs. Nothing wrong with what Liam Fox said at all.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-negotiation-donald-tusk-should-be-as-special-as-possible/

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5 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Where have I seen those numbers before? :ph34r:

So polling hasn't moved since referendum day then? Didn't Yougov have it 52-48 Remain on June 22nd 2016?

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I thought the Queen looked quite frail today whilst I watched back the highlights of the Tory's manifesto plans.

 

The whole ceremony was a little farcical imo.

 

 

Edited by Legend_in_blue

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7 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

I thought the Queen looked quite frail today whilst I watched back the highlights of the Tory's manifesto plans.

 

The whole ceremony was a little farcical imo.

 

 

It literally always is.  She reads what the Government want her to say.  Admittedly we are closer to a GE than usual.  The question here is not how much of this stuff makes it into law, but how much makes into the Tory Manifesto!

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9 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

I thought the Queen looked quite frail today whilst I watched back the highlights of the Tory's manifesto plans.

First time I've looked at her and thought how frail she is as well.

 

Wonder if Prince Phillip is now on the verge of departing, that will take a lot out of her.

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1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

When we actually start to talk about the Free trade agreement, there is no reason why it should be difficult.  

 

All this demonstrates is that the EU - far from being our friends - are doing their best to frustrate Brexit, or if it must happen to punish us as much as they can, regardless of the impact on the EU economy, because they want to protect their failing project.

I think the tough bit is still how to exit the customs union and single market while still having an open border with Ireland. 

 

I do think there has been some naivety in the UK thinking the EU would want to bend or break their rules and the Good Friday Agreement to favour a country that wanted to leave.

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