Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
MattP

FT General Election Poll 2019

FT General Election 2019  

501 members have voted

  1. 1. Which party will be getting your vote?

    • Conservative
      155
    • Labour
      188
    • Liberal Democrats
      93
    • Brexit Party
      17
    • Green Party
      26
    • Other
      22


Recommended Posts

21 minutes ago, simFox said:

From another forum, but good info:

 

EU President said the EU is ready to go on the trade deal. Welcomes negotiations:

The former Belgian prime minister hoped for "an early ratification by the British parliament" of the exit agreement negotiated between London and the EU, "so that we can start the negotiations on the next phase calmly, quietly but with great determination".

The EU leaders have a Brexit text ready to adopt on Friday at the end of their two day summit, which was dominated on Thursday by climate talks.
According to the latest draft, seen by AFP, the 27 other EU leaders will call for "as close as possible a future relationship with the UK" while warning that "the future relationship will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations and ensure a level playing field" in terms of business and trade rules.

They want it over as much as the UK. Remainers wildly overplayed their hand (and probably will continue to cry us a river for the next few years). Hogan has already coughed the EU/UK deal is easier as we are aligned on a lot of rights and obligations already - obvious caveat is obvious, as it were. Merkel and Macron are (behind the scenes) - gunning for a fast FTA given global headwinds

 

Of course, the EU want the WA done and a future relationship deal completed - but they want that deal on their terms and they are more powerful than us.

 

They are ready to do a deal allowing low-friction access for UK goods.....provided the UK agrees to remain closely aligned on rights and regulations. Where that leaves UK services is another matter & they'll want fishing access.

 

Will Johnson sign up to a "level playing field" and close alignment with EU rights and obligations? There'll be a lot of discontented Hard Brexiteer MPs, party members & voters if he does.....and Trump reckons that would rule out a US deal.

 

Can he now ignore the wishes of the foaming-mouthed ERG (just seen @Bobby Hundreds post)? He can ignore the most extreme idiots, but there are about 80 ERG members, aren't there? He has a majority of 78-80, so if he proposed something they didn't like and they all opposed it, he'd lose by about 80.....

 

We are aligned already......but that only makes a future deal easy if we STAY closely aligned. If we seek to diverge significantly (the Tory policy thus far), we'll be into complex negotiations trying to unpick that alignment in exchange for concessions on other issues - or accepting divergence in exchange for high-friction trade (tariffs, red tape & regulatory barriers).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Can he now ignore the wishes of the foaming-mouthed ERG (just seen @Bobby Hundreds post)? He can ignore the most extreme idiots, but there are about 80 ERG members, aren't there? He has a majority of 78-80, so if he proposed something they didn't like and they all opposed it, he'd lose by about 80.....

 

 

But will they have the balls to stop brexit?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

But will they have the balls to stop brexit?

 

They wouldn't stop Brexit.

 

We'll clearly now formally leave the EU on 31st Jan (latest) via the WA (divorce settlement, citizens' rights, border in Irish Sea, transition to Dec. 2020 etc.).

 

We presumably won't request an extension to the transition period - which has to be done by 30th June.

 

We'll then be heading for a No Deal in December 2020..... Will ERG MPs support close alignment with the EU if Boris proposes that? Or will they want him to negotiate hard for divergence to allow for divergence & deregulation, happily prepared to risk No Deal, if necessary (or to actively welcome it in some cases)? Likely to be the latter, I think...

 

Edited by Alf Bentley

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BlueBrett said:

Absolutely.

 

Now that it's all done and dusted I can say this without sounding like I'm trying to score points or whatever..whoever is in charge of determining Labour policy should never work again! 

 

They made themselves completely unelectable with their Brexit stance. It just didn't make any sense. How can you possibly say that you will go out and negotiate a new deal with the EU which will somehow be superior to what's on the table and then in all likelihood a majority of the party will campaign against the acceptance of their own deal (while the leader says and does who knows what)?? That is honestly some of the most ridiculous incoherent nonsense I've ever heard. Where's the incentive to actually secure a good deal and why would the EU bother making concessions to, or even taking seriously, a bunch of people who don't even want the things they're asking for? They must think the electorate are half as stupid as they are themselves.

 

I find it really difficult to comprehend how anybody could actually go out and vote for these morons - but then I guess they don't really, they just vote 'against' the Tories.

I was thinking about this last night. Obviously their brexit stance killed them. But what position could they have took to keep both their brexit northern & midland heartlands on board and not lose their young metropolitan vote to the Lib Dems and keep the membership happy?

 

The only thing I can think of is they should have backed a deal and got out in some form as going to an election against a pro brexit Tory party with it still on the table was suicide.

Edited by The whole world smiles

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

They wouldn't stop Brexit.

 

We'll clearly now formally leave the EU on 31st Jan (latest) via the WA (divorce settlement, citizens' rights, border in Irish Sea etc.).

 

We presumably won't request an extension to the transition period - which has to be done by 30th June.

 

We'll then be heading for a No Deal in December 2020..... Will ERG MPs support close alignment with the EU if Boris proposes that? Or will they want him to negotiate hard for divergence to allow for divergence & deregulation, happily prepared to risk No Deal, if necessary (or to actively welcome it in some cases)? Likely to be the latter, I think...

I don't think Boris has any sort of appetite for no deal, he just wants to be the man of the hour. He's proposing to get this done by the end of December 2020, which is going to mean quite a few concessions from the us to the EU. He doesn't have to pander to the ERG and suspect not all 80 are of the foaming-mouth brigade are that extreme. I imagine that the newly elected Conservative parliamentarians in tow are more Pro-Boris than pro-no deal Brexit too. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, GeorgeTheFox said:

I, for one, welcome our new russian overlords

UK sandwiched between the russians and Trump. Tasty times ahead.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, David Guiza said:

Well I am dejected, but have been expecting this for months so it's hardly a surprise. Though I did think the margin of victory would be a little less.

 

As for those who are celebrating like it's a football match, please bare in mind that this, without meaning to paraphrase Shankley, is more important than that. I completely understand the laughter aimed at the hardline and idiotic 'Corbynistas', but plenty of people voted for opposition parties because they have genuine reasons for doing so and the past decade of Tory rule has done nothing for them/their loved ones. On a personal point of view, I will be absolutely find I should imagine, but I didn't vote for myself. I have friends with Cystic Fibrosis and Diabetes who are genuinely concerned about insulin and other medications they need to stay alive and healthy, as they have been informed by professionals that these could be at risk post Brexit. Now I doubt it will come to that, naturally, but it's a worrying state of affairs that this is what it's come to for some people. 

 

Also, and as I've mentioned on here a few times also, my wife is a teacher and the past few years in education have gotten worse with time and no sign of it getting better. There can't be many other professions whereby 40% of people are quitting within the first 5 years, and there's a myriad of reasons for why that is the case, none of which have been spoken about by the current Government. I sincerely doubt she'll stay in teaching beyond next year, and she won't be the only one. She's got a first class degree in her subject and helped students jump up 3 or 4 grades in their GCSEs and she'll be replaced by more under-qualified people to fill a hole. It's just a pretty sad state of affairs.

 

It may seem easy for me to say this now, but I wouldn't wish for a Labour majority in these numbers either because I don't think either party has the skills, expertise or personnel to get a job done without heavy scrutiny and that's simply not going to be there. Whilst they are of course completely different beasts, I much prefer countries like Denmark and Finland where coalition Governments are regular and not despised, and they work too. Yes we need a majority to 'get Brexit done', but it's not that simple.

 

As for anybody who thinks Brexit is going to be done and dusted in a few months, good luck.   

This is all excellently phrased and put. The Tories ran the best election campaign and probably deserved their win. However, like you I know  a great many, especially young people, in this country who wanted change as something to hope for. Especially those suffering mental health issues for whom the Tories have done and will continue to do nothing.

In many ways I'm the perfect Tory target, white, middle class, in a decent job, not especially left wing. Pretty much a boring old centralist I suppose. Last night and the last few years have left me pretty despondant about my country. A country which appears the have become an isolationist, xenophobic one where racism is on the rise and a politcal elite who have felt the need to pander to the extreme right wing. I found some of Boris's comments on immigrants from the Eu to be profoundly xenophobic and even racist. We have a Prime Minister found to have been guilty of closing down parliament illegally and who flip flops from one policy to another depending upon what suits him at the time. The future will prove what sort of politician he is. For now we really don't know as he never answers any questions honestly. He's basically  a watered down version of Trump.

Moreover we now have a broken political system with one party with a huge majority, not a good thing for our democratic system. Parliamentary democracies like ours need strong opposition parties to function in the best interests of the whole country. We don't have that now for at least 5 years and possibly longer than that.

Scotland is an issue which will not go away and I feel they must now be given the chance once more to vote on independence.

Though all my life I have felt that our electoral system was the best method now I believe the time for electoral change is long overdue. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Of course, the EU want the WA done and a future relationship deal completed - but they want that deal on their terms and they are more powerful than us.

 

They are ready to do a deal allowing low-friction access for UK goods.....provided the UK agrees to remain closely aligned on rights and regulations. Where that leaves UK services is another matter & they'll want fishing access.

 

Will Johnson sign up to a "level playing field" and close alignment with EU rights and obligations? There'll be a lot of discontented Hard Brexiteer MPs, party members & voters if he does.....and Trump reckons that would rule out a US deal.

 

Can he now ignore the wishes of the foaming-mouthed ERG (just seen @Bobby Hundreds post)? He can ignore the most extreme idiots, but there are about 80 ERG members, aren't there? He has a majority of 78-80, so if he proposed something they didn't like and they all opposed it, he'd lose by about 80.....

 

We are aligned already......but that only makes a future deal easy if we STAY closely aligned. If we seek to diverge significantly (the Tory policy thus far), we'll be into complex negotiations trying to unpick that alignment in exchange for concessions on other issues - or accepting divergence in exchange for high-friction trade (tariffs, red tape & regulatory barriers).

Well put as usual. I think Trump is rather over stating his influence here though as I thought any trade deal would actually be sancioned by Congress?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

I don't think Boris has any sort of appetite for no deal, he just wants to be the man of the hour. He's proposing to get this done by the end of December 2020, which is going to mean quite a few concessions from the us to the EU. He doesn't have to pander to the ERG and suspect not all 80 are of the foaming-mouth brigade are that extreme. I imagine that the newly elected Conservative parliamentarians in tow are more Pro-Boris than pro-no deal Brexit too. 

 

It might not end up in No Deal. It might end up with a very limited, high-friction deal by December 2020.

 

I take your point about Boris. I don't see him as particularly ideological, but motivated more by ego. But I think a lot of ERG MPs will want a deal that involves divergence, not maintaining alignment with EU rules - particularly if that might limit the potential for more "flexible" deals with the USA and others (flexible on employment standards, product standards, whatever). The Tory membership is now much more ideologically right-wing than a few years ago, particularly after a large influx of former UKIP members. I've no information about the new crop of Tory MPs, but I imagine that quite a number are Hard Right / ERG types.

 

I don't think that inevitably means we end up with No Deal - and I certainly don't think Brexit can be stopped now.

 

I'm just highly dubious that the Tory parliamentary party would accept us remaining closely aligned with the EU. It would also surely reject any extension to the transition period. So, unless Boris backed down big-time in negotiations & risked the wrath and potential opposition of his party, that takes us to either No Deal or a very limited deal with high-friction trade in exchange for divergence.....not to mention all the complications over UK services (which dominate our economy) and EU fishing rights in UK waters (which will reportedly be very important to EU negotiators).

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just going to bleat on a bit more about Electoral Reform. For the current system to work it needs a strong opposition, which do not exist currently. The following is from the Electoral Reform Society:-
Across Britain, it took...
864,743 votes to elect 1 Green MP
642,303 votes to elect 0 Brexit Party MPs
334,122 votes to elect a Lib Dem
50,817 votes for a Labour MP
38,316 votes for a Plaid Cymru MP
38,300 votes for a Con. MP
25,882 votes for a SNP MP

I also didn't realise, for what it's worth, that Labour now have more female than male MPs. 
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It might not end up in No Deal. It might end up with a very limited, high-friction deal by December 2020.

 

I take your point about Boris. I don't see him as particularly ideological, but motivated more by ego. But I think a lot of ERG MPs will want a deal that involves divergence, not maintaining alignment with EU rules - particularly if that might limit the potential for more "flexible" deals with the USA and others (flexible on employment standards, product standards, whatever). The Tory membership is now much more ideologically right-wing than a few years ago, particularly after a large influx of former UKIP members. I've no information about the new crop of Tory MPs, but I imagine that quite a number are Hard Right / ERG types.

 

I don't think that inevitably means we end up with No Deal - and I certainly don't think Brexit can be stopped now.

 

I'm just highly dubious that the Tory parliamentary party would accept us remaining closely aligned with the EU. It would also surely reject any extension to the transition period. So, unless Boris backed down big-time in negotiations & risked the wrath and potential opposition of his party, that takes us to either No Deal or a very limited deal with high-friction trade in exchange for divergence.....not to mention all the complications over UK services (which dominate our economy) and EU fishing rights in UK waters (which will reportedly be very important to EU negotiators).

 

 

I guess we will find out in the coming 12 months, let's hope whatever occurs is a success for the country and the working class areas and communities which have voted Conservative feel it was worth it. I won't hold my breath however!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

And Boris can now completely ignore the wishes of the foaming mouthed ERG.

Not sure he can totally, but surely and most significantly he can ignore the foaming mouthed remainers.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

But will they have the balls to stop brexit?

Once the WA is passed. How do you stop brexit?

An extension can kick the can down the road but it can’t be reversed after that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, David Guiza said:


I also didn't realise, for what it's worth, that Labour now have more female than male MPs. 

Hopefully they get with the times and elect their first permanent female leader now.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, The Fox Covert said:

Would you buy a second hand car from this man?

Yet we are going to be ruled by them for the next five years.

borisactually1.jpg

Are you trying to call out someone for lying by actually lying yourself? 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, turkish14 said:

I Don’t disagree...

 

but in my opinion the UK had a better chance of staying united under a labour or Lib Dem government.

Whilst I agree, it was always going be a Tory win for reasons already posted that we all known. But from a military stand point, Corbyn stood no chance of getting any votes. Rightly or wrongly most feel he's the opposite of what they stand for and in many cases supports what they're fighting against. But then I feel alot of usually hordcore labour towns feel the same. 

 

Edit: my apologies I've strayed from the original Scottish part. If they can't vote labour they'll pretty much always go SNP out of blind 'patriotism' more than anything. 

 

I would have probably took lib dem though. 

Edited by ARTY_FOX
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bobby Hundreds said:

I guess we will find out in the coming 12 months, let's hope whatever occurs is a success for the country and the working class areas and communities which have voted Conservative feel it was worth it. I won't hold my breath however!

 

I suspect there might be a honeymoon period over the next year. I presume that the Tories will proceed with the increases in public spending they've announced - though to what extent they'll be noticed, I don't know.

They might also come up with some other noticeably popular initiatives.

 

But my assumption beyond a year is that the UK economy will be increasingly in a mess due to Brexit - meaning much lower tax revenues.

 

Would the Tories then massively increase borrowing or raise taxes to fund improved public services and investment in the deindustralised working-class areas that have switched from Labour?

Is a party historically devoted to laissez-faire economics, tight budgets, low tax and privatisation really going to do that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Stoopid said:

Blimey - right wing soldiers! Who'd have thought it?

Next thing you'll be telling me that some coppers voted Tory too!

It's not a right wing thought process. It's more one bloke goes and meets and defends the very people shooting at them. Especially when you have people in places such as Afghanistan begging you not to withdraw for fear of a Taliban resurgence.

 

So a bit of a wrong statement really. 

Edited by ARTY_FOX
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Facecloth said:

This is meltdown? It's just people giving their opinion on the result. I don't see many people losing their shit, I don't see many people crying about it. People are giving their opinions, which they are allowed. You're allowed to say if you don't like the result, you allowed to give an opinion on what you think will happen, you're allowed to say why you thought it happened.

It's neither the one nor the other.

 

You can clearly tell that the vast majority of posters on here are lamenting the Tory victory - based on the polls before the elections, hardly a surprise.

It's opinions, alright. Doesn't change the fact that the tristesse dominates and slight anger is seeping through these replies.

For my taste, there's too much black-painting going on already and there's way too many knee-jerk reactions.

 

I'm not particularly conservative-friendly myself, now it's up to the Tories to deliver and Labour to finally wake up from their self-induced slumber.

The parties in the middle also need to make themselves more heard and offer truly viable alternatives.

This switching back and forth between political extremes can't do no good in the long run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Once the WA is passed. How do you stop brexit?

An extension can kick the can down the road but it can’t be reversed after that.

 

Yep. That's one thing that was decided last night: the WA will be passed and Brexit will happen - formally leaving EU by 31st Jan, transition to December 2020, then leaving transition with or without a deal.

 

I can't imagine an extension happening either, given the pro-Brexit mood in the Tory party, the size of their majority & the early deadline (June/July). We'll be fully leaving transition in December 2020, one way or another, I think.

I suppose that if both the UK and the EU wanted to wangle a last-minute extension, they'd find a way of doing it.....but I really can't see the UK wanting that & possibly not the EU either.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Strokes said:

The city is red but the county is blue. 
I think we should all have a fight. Country bumpkins vs Towny tramps. Let’s have it.

This is a trend that has been going on for a couple of decades, and you'll find this taking place in pretty much all Western countries.

 

On a sidenote, it's easy to call city slackers more liberal than the people living in the countryside or in smaller cities. I'd say there's tons of swing voters in either area.

The media tend to make it out as a fight between two extremes in order to gain more attention, but in reality, there's much more nuance as to the voting base.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For all of your sakes, I hope you don’t go down the path my country has taken for healthcare. 

 

For the love of Christ, don’t do it. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notwithstanding the fact that Brexit is clearly now going to happen.....

 

If my maths are right, about 53% voted yesterday for parties proposing a 2nd referendum v. about 47% for parties proposing to "get Brexit done"....

 

We have a massively divided nation, unfortunately, without even looking at what happens with Scotland & potentially with N. Ireland, which voted in a majority of Irish nationalist, non-unionist MPs for the first time ever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...