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Claudiofox

Something is wrong ? The question is how to fix it

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18 hours ago, Detroit Blues said:

I looked at the stats from the last 15 premier league games (leaving out the cup games) to get an idea of if our performances have been getting worse, or if we have just been getting "unlucky."  All in all, I can say that our performance has dropped off regardless of our luck.  The only games where the outcome deviated from the expected outcome based on xG was the two games against Burnley. Away, we deserved to win, but lost. At home, we deserved to lose, but won. 

 

So what has changed since our winning streak? In the last 7 games, our expected goals has decreased by 1.08. However, our actual goals scored decreased by 1.84. Now, there is some statistical anomalies in the mix. For example, the historic 9-0 win over Southampton, and our games vs significantly better opposition in Man City and Liverpool. However, even with those games removed, our expected goals decreased by 0.48 and our actual goals decreased by 0.69. 

 

What is strange is that, during our recent struggles, the number of shots we've taken and the percentage of shots that end up on-target have actually increased. We are creating chances, and putting shots on target, but we are lacking a lethal edge. Though Jamie Vardy has been in the team sheet five of the last seven games, nobody would argue that he has been in the same form since his calf injury/absence. He scored in each of the eight games that we won, and he has only scored once in his last five premier league starts. 


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This is where it gets weird. In the last seven games, we have actually conceded fewer goals, both expected/actual during our recent struggles.  We have limited our opponent to about 3-4 fewer shots per game (a greater than 20% decrease). However, of the shots we have conceded, the % of shots that end up on target have nearly doubled.

 

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Maybe this will change some of our perspectives on what is "wrong" with Leicester. I know so much focus has been on the defensive side - Ndidi's injury, Chilwell's performance, etc. But the statistics say that we have been conceding a similar number of goals, but it is our goal scoring that has significantly slowed down. 

 

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Thanks for the analysis, but of course every attacking move starts with some kind of defensive move, so e.g. if you do not win the ball back high up the pitch (or at all) you will naturally get less shots.

 

We play a possession game, that type of game normally involves keeping the opposition pinned back, that is achieved by pressing them when they get the ball, to win it back early, and also by keeping the ball well yourself.  At the moment we are not managing to do either, we get pressed and lose it, we fail to press back and as such we fail to win it back when we lose it and ultimately we get less attacks as a result of that.

 

It either needs a Pearson keep it simple approach where the attacks are quick and direct, or we need to sort out our ability to keep the ball when pressed and the lack of pressing from ourselves, this is plain to see in all of our recent games, I struggle to understand why someone as experienced as Brandan wouldn't see it, so I expect the problem is getting the message across to the players, and possibly confidence issues also.

 

Teams are not going to suddenly stop pressing us (at least good ones), so we need to adapt to the situation rather than just trying the same again and again.

Edited by Chrysalis

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