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Corona Virus

Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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1 hour ago, StanSP said:

I'd definitely eat mine.

That’s a sure way of keeping people 2 metres away.

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47 minutes ago, Guesty said:

 

Thing is with herd immunity it was mainly Patrick Vallance who said about herd immunity. It never was the goal, it was more of a side effect of their plan. It's true they underestimated how fast it would spread though. Matt Hancock even came out and point blank said: "herd immunity is not our goal or policy." It was just really bad communication, but that's the problem with scientists I guess; they're not media experts.

 

They did say in the first press conference many more people are going to die and we will introduce more harsher methods later; and implied it would impact people's mental health and people would not be disciplined enough yet. Which is what's happened.

 

If they were being honest they'd probably have come out and said: We'd like to lockdown now, but we have no plan for the economy and your jobs yet; and some of you are so stupid that we know in a few days when you see people dying there will still be a load of you that will ignore our advice. If we try and lock you down now, a load of you will rebel, or be down the shops buying anything and everything and the infrastructure isn't there to cope with it. Plus, we've run the NHS and the police into the ground, we hadn't planned for this and need to get a load of staff and plans in place. So we're going to do this in steps cause if we're being honest, we're not ready - which means some will die, but we have to wait till the NHS is about to be overwelmed to really lockdown.

 

The WHO are right, but it only works in a fairytale world where people do what they're told. I watched a documentary on Ebola in Africa; people started attacking the workers in the protective suits who were trying to help people. People are stupid when they're scared.

Any chance you can direct me back to your previous post in July 2019 of prophesy?  Or are you doing the classic mistake of retrospective divine wisdom

 

(snippet article collection).

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13 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Any chance you can direct me back to your previous post in July 2019 of prophesy?  Or are you doing the classic mistake of retrospective divine wisdom

 

(snippet article collection).

And this applies to everyone else.  So easy to be keyboard warriors now eh, now people are dying and the Government are swamped (like the rest of the world).

 

When were you personally all talking about this last summer, last winter, with your wisdom then?

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39 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Any chance you can direct me back to your previous post in July 2019 of prophesy?  Or are you doing the classic mistake of retrospective divine wisdom

 

(snippet article collection).

I think it's just common sense. Or really I'm trying to explain why they've said what they've said. And why the herd immunity isn't the correct thing to focus on. I'm not really sure what your point is?

 

I don't think you need to be a prophet to know: if you tell a country to just go home and you have no idea how you're going to pay them, or how they're going to put food on their table (or even if they'll be able to get any food) it will lead to civil unrest. Espescially when the reason hasn't properly happened yet.

 

I wrote a post a while back on the time I worked in a supermarket and what happened when the space shuttle crashed and when the Iraq war kicked off. We had people panic buying and people losing their s**t in our shop then - it made me realise how silly people are when they're frightend. 

 

But I do also have a degree in journalism and have spent time in an organisation's communication's department. So I understand the basics of why organisations put out the messages they do and how the public react.

Edited by Guesty
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1 hour ago, String fellow said:

Not only was the idea of 'herd immunity' a bad one, but even the phrase itself isn't great. Is the human population of this country really just a 'herd'? Wouldn't something like 'group immunity' make it sound a little less like we all no better than a field full of cows? 

I actually read an article where the government's strategists didn't want them to use it. (They knew what would happen - wish I could provide you the link). But Patrick Vallance came out with it and when he came out with it a second time that was when/why Matt Hancock came out and said it wasn't their plan. 

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3 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:


On the importance of limiting any non-essential contact during the lockdown..

Eepidemiologist PhD student /Yale Lecturer said:
As an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from peer review.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

 

 

 

Source: https://medium.com/@jpsmithalt/hold-the-line-17231c48ff17

Excellent article. Society as a whole is making a huge sacrifice both socially and economically to tame this monster. Anyone flouting the new rules of distancing, isolation & quarantine is undermining these efforts, dragging out the crisis, putting many more lives at risk, and ensuring that the sacrifice is in vain. Ultimately it needs to be called out and made as socially unacceptable as other life threatening crimes.

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We are putting 2 icu patients in one bed space now. Unbelievable scenes.

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16 minutes ago, Guesty said:

I think it's just common sense. Or really I'm trying to explain why they've said what they've said. And why the herd immunity isn't the correct thing to focus on. I'm not really sure what your point is?

 

I don't think you need to be a prophet to know: if you tell a country to just go home and you have no idea how you're going to pay them, or how they're going to put food on their table (or even if they'll be able to get any food) it will lead to civil unrest. Espescially when the reason hasn't properly happened yet.

 

I wrote a post a while back on the time I worked in a supermarket and what happened when the space shuttle crashed and when the Iraq war kicked off. We had people panic buying and people losing their s**t in our shop then - it made me realise how silly people are when they're frightend. 

 

But I do also have a degree in journalism and have spent time in an organisations communications department. So I understand the basics of why organisations put out the messages they do and how the public react.

So you've posted articles about this in the past few years, yes? You know you're expertise around managing, implementing, dealing with locally, nationally etc?  Just checking as you're seeming to suggest you're another expert on this........

 

The MSM have been a disgrace in the last 2 weeks. Are you feeling like one of them tonight?

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3 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

We are putting 2 icu patients in one bed space now. Unbelievable scenes.

That’s horrific. I heard they are now transferring patients out of London to distant hospitals elsewhere in the country, and that the Easter bank holidays have been cancelled for NHS staff in some places. I’m working Easter weekend, reckon the rest of the UK will be in a similar mess by then.

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15 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

So you've posted articles about this in the past few years, yes? You know you're expertise around managing, implementing, dealing with locally, nationally etc?  Just checking as you're seeming to suggest you're another expert on this........

 

The MSM have been a disgrace in the last 2 weeks. Are you feeling like one of them tonight?

I'm far from an expert. I'm not sure why you think I am, but I'm allowed an opinion. And I can read articles about a subject and add knowledge I know about to it.

 

Enough people from different political viewpoints liked the post. They seemed to understand what I was saying - I'm not sure why it seems to have riled you. If you think I'm wrong and have better 'expertise' than me, I'm more than happy for you to tell me where I'm wrong?

 

Do I feel like a journalist posting on foxestalk? No, not really - I'm not sure why you think I would...

Edited by Guesty

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2 hours ago, filbertway said:

I find is fascinating that some people think the government should have locked everyone inside for an indeterminate amount of time till a vaccines is ready then expect everyone to pop out there houses with cheery smiles. If you start a lock down with the intention of nobody catching the virus then you have to stay in that state till the virus is no longer a danger right? Nobody died from the virus but half the country opened their wrists after watching Mrs Browns boys live for the 10,000th time.

I think you should read the Hammer and Dance article referenced some pages back.

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13 minutes ago, Wet Trump said:

Most of my symptoms have cleared, 7 days in. The only thing left is a complete lack of smell and taste.

 

I farted yesterday and knew it’d be a spicy one, couldn’t smell a thing. My girlfriend thought I’d s**t myself.

Living up to your name? 

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Still tracking Italy closely on this

 

This lends support to the theory that the virus wasn’t circulating everywhere in Jan, just seasonal flu. When corona arrives, you notice it

 

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6 minutes ago, brucey said:

Still tracking Italy closely on this

 

This lends support to the theory that the virus wasn’t circulating everywhere in Jan, just seasonal flu. When corona arrives, you notice it

 

Looks like US will cross over Italy's line in a couple of days? Apparently some governors of states have overridden lockdowns and said stores/salons/shops can open up... 

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Looks like this is opening very soon, so hopefully take a load off the London hospitals temporarily

 

 

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48 minutes ago, brucey said:

Still tracking Italy closely on this

 

This lends support to the theory that the virus wasn’t circulating everywhere in Jan, just seasonal flu. When corona arrives, you notice it

 

Really interesting and as you say probably disproves that theory, how is the spike in the younger population explained?

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12 minutes ago, Abrasive fox said:

Really interesting and as you say probably disproves that theory, how is the spike in the younger population explained?

You mean the 0-17 age spike in Jan? Kids are generally far more susceptible to (and symptomatic with) seasonal influenza, compared to the coronavirus.

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1 hour ago, Wet Trump said:

Most of my symptoms have cleared, 7 days in. The only thing left is a complete lack of smell and taste.

 

I farted yesterday and knew it’d be a spicy one, couldn’t smell a thing. My girlfriend thought I’d s**t myself.

That made me laugh, but good to hear you're getting over it.

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A Spanish Dr talks about the now general practice in Madrid for the over 65 on ventilators to be sedated and there hands held as they are left to die as the ventilators are taken from the elderly and given to younger patients.I found this 

 

 

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Probably the worst aspect of the response of western nations to this crisis has been to poo poo the use of masks. As I understand, most are made in China, and at an early stage China banned exports, which lead to a shortage in customer countries.

 

Western leaders naturally wanted remaining supplies to be reserved for medical and other front line workers, but instead of owning to up having fvcked up on a grand scale by not having any contingency arrangements to supply these items in a crisis, they instead demonised the use of them by the public by claiming that they don’t work and that anyone wearing them is panicking.

 

If they don’t work, why do doctors use them during surgery and at other times? Surgical masks are mostly to prevent doctors from infecting their patients. Isn’t that exact what we’re trying to do here, stop the spread of infection? In an ideal world, at the present time everyone would wear a mask in public. This I believe is one of the reasons that places like South Korea have handled this crisis much better than the west.

 

A massive effort should be underway to massively increase mask production.

Edited by WigstonWanderer

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