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Corona Virus

Mark

No political discussion in this topic. That is complaining about a country, a politician, a party and/or its voters, etc

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55 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Because they were done in small particular towns which were known to have it spread there making it easier to do in a small isolated populations. As far as I know it's the big cities who've been hot hardest here.

 

The Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier where they've managed to test 2,000+ particular isolated people and over 1000+ have tested positive for example should give a good isolated population sample for study.

why not a random sample like polls. the carrier doesn't tell us about spread

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9 hours ago, Nod.E said:

Well it's difficult isn't it. But it doesn't mean we should just accept whatever happens as 'they were doing their best'.

It is, nigh on impossible in fact. There is no doubt that the efforts of the Government in the crisis must be reviewed, but doing so against an emotional yardstick is unhelpful (Albeit unavoidable to some degree), but finding any other metric is difficult due to the variations in nations.

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8 hours ago, Sampson said:

Yeah I changed that before you quoted it.

 

The most extensive study done so far is that German one which suggests a 0.3% one from what I've seen. 

 

As ever the issue is we just don't know how many people have caught it and didn't need hospitalization or didn't even realise they had it.

@WigstonWanderer @Sampson

 

This page constantly gets updated regarding mortality rate, it’s a really interesting read. The source is Oxford so it’s not as if it’s rogue. All of this particular work is based on evidence and not models. There’s some

good stuff on the website. 

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

 

Edited by Lionator
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21 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

But where else can I go to get a hard on over conspiracist bollocks? 

As said before just quote me next time rather than being snide 

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1 hour ago, Dahnsouff said:

It is, nigh on impossible in fact. There is no doubt that the efforts of the Government in the crisis must be reviewed, but doing so against an emotional yardstick is unhelpful (Albeit unavoidable to some degree), but finding any other metric is difficult due to the variations in nations.

Agreed. Some people are up in arms as it's the only response they know.

 

I imagine though that once things have come to an end there will be rational conclusions and criticisms to be made, when comparing to the approach from other countries. Varied though they are it will be possible to identify themes and commonalities.

 

What we see now is a combination of emotional outcry and speculation. Some of that speculation is likely to be substantiated. 

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1 hour ago, Lionator said:

@WigstonWanderer @Sampson

 

This page constantly gets updated regarding mortality rate, it’s a really interesting read. The source is Oxford so it’s not as if it’s rogue. All of this particular work is based on evidence and not models. There’s some

good stuff on the website. 

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

 

Thanks for that. I'll have a read through.

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2 hours ago, Lionator said:

@WigstonWanderer @Sampson

 

This page constantly gets updated regarding mortality rate, it’s a really interesting read. The source is Oxford so it’s not as if it’s rogue. All of this particular work is based on evidence and not models. There’s some

good stuff on the website. 

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

 

This is actually a much more complex issue than a simple analysis would suggest, and certainly not something that’s likely to be resolved anytime soon in these pages. I’m sure it will be the subject of PhD theses and research papers for years to come.

 

Another complication is that there seems to be some evidence that the severity of the disease might be dependent on the initial viral load, which of course affects medical staff in particularly.

 

The real information required is the proportion of the population that is actually immune after the first wave. This will depend not only on the percentage infected, but also on the proportion of them that are actually rendered immune, and for how long. Are all those having only a mild or asymptomatic infection rendered immune or just some of them?

 

Another issue is that if there have been so many infections during such a relatively short space of time, then the disease is probably more infectious than originally thought. This means that the R0 would be higher than originally thought which in turns means that a higher proportion of the population needs to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity. It doesn’t make a huge difference, but for example, for full herd immunity, an R0 of 3 requires over 67% population immunity, whereas an R0 of 5 requires over 80%.

 

Looking over the document referenced above it does look hopeful that the underlying Infection Fatality Rate might be somewhat less than first feared, perhaps around the 0.3% suggested by @Sampson, but I’d suggest that there are many more factors involved to determine what progress has been made towards herd immunity.

 

Even at 0.3% it would likely take at least 3 waves similar to the current one in the UK to gain full herd immunity, and that’s only if all of those infected in the first wave are actually immune during the any subsequent waves.

 

 

Edited by WigstonWanderer

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In my youth and middle years smoking was prevalent.  Now I believe only 15% smoke so many just won't have a regular experience of being around a smoker.  I can remember it being easy to tell if a room contained a smoker, because you could smell it in the air long before you met them, even if they weren't smoking at that time.  And that's how far away the breath from another person can travel.  Many of us suffered from 'secondary smoking' of someone's exhaled smoke-infected breath, and when the effects of secondary smoking were discovered then smoking in the workplace was banned.

 

We now have the situation where we know that Covid-19 can be transmitted from an asymptomatic or presymptomatic person.  Companies have duties of care to their employees and some have implemented measures such as screens to protect their staff.  In some other countries the use of masks has been mandated for public areas.  In some instances individual shops have restricted customer entry to those wearing masks.  

 

Currently government advice is that masks are not required in public places but they have left the door open to make changes to that advice.  If that does change, and I expect it will once the supplies to the care sector are secured and regular, then we may all need masks until the virus is beaten.

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After the fall in death rate on Monday(?), does anyone have five information to tell me if it fell again Tuesday/Weds? 

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Found this interesting......

 

https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/03/24/Coronavirus-and-obesity-industry-urged-to-act-post-crisis

 

As you all know I’m a lefty twat but I must admit it sits uneasy with even me that some folk think that any talk regarding being overweight and health is somehow “fat shaming”. I would never make fun of someone for being overweight but we should be able to discuss the fact it’s not ideal for health and hear findings regarding Covid-19 are quite startling. X 

Edited by RumbleFox
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2 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:

After the fall in death rate on Monday(?), does anyone have five information to tell me if it fell again Tuesday/Weds? 

Went up from Monday to Tuesday. 

 

400+ Monday. 

820+ yesterday. 

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6 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

I would go as far to say 8/10 of the patients on the ICU's are obese. Colleagues around the country say the same.

Yeah it’s something we should really look to tackle as a nation. 

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2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I posted a couple of days ago that Sweden have changed the guidelines to put obese people (BMI of 40+) on par with over 70s in the highest risk category.

 

I'm really surprised other nations haven't done the same and haven't been advising obese people to self isolate like we have done with the elderly.

 

Hopefully this will scare the country into taking obesity seriously in the future and changing food regulations and start anti-obesity campaigns similar to anti-smoking campaigns when this is all over.

I agree with the smoking comparison, for me they are very similar issues. I say that as an ex smoker. X 

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4 minutes ago, RumbleFox said:

Yeah it’s something we should really look to tackle as a nation. 

Definitely. Hopefully this comes as part of the reevaluation of life that will follow the pandemic. I know personally I work too long hours, as a consequence don't exercise as much as I should or spend the time I need to make sure I eat healthily. Socialising largely revolves around meeting for food. I am also a believer that it's not simply calories in - a lot of the challenge around obesity is due to processed foods (those foods we are grabbing on the go because we are too busy) and how it impacts upon hormones. 

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21 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Went up from Monday to Tuesday. 

 

400+ Monday. 

820+ yesterday. 


Cheers Stan. So the hope for a decline didn’t happen. 

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2 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:


Cheers Stan. So the hope for a decline didn’t happen. 

Those figures include some from previous days and aren't reliable. This article shows NHS England recording the actual figures per day. The peak was the 8th of April.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52374513

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33 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

I would go as far to say 8/10 of the patients on the ICU's are obese. Colleagues around the country say the same.

I thought I was on the chubby side, did a BMI calc and I'm under 23! I guess I've just got a little belly fat but I am pretty healthy in terms of weight vs. height.

 

PS. I must add that I don't really eat healthy, which is something I definitely need to improve on.

Edited by Leicester_Loyal

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19 minutes ago, RumbleFox said:

I agree with the smoking comparison, for me they are very similar issues. I say that as an ex smoker. X 

From a mental health perspective, smoking and binge eating are essentially the same thing. They're crutches in times of stress.

 

To echo you, I'm also of the left and we seriously need to be having these conversations without fear. Obesity will be the biggest public health issue in this country moving forward as it is. The health consequences spoke for themselves before this and it's clear now that a pattern is emerging in the evidence.

 

Nobody should be shamed for being obese, we are making progress as a country through things like sugar tax and gym referral schemes. We need to reach out to people and go on a journey together as it takes time to change lifelong habits/cultural norms. 

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7 minutes ago, Lionator said:

From a mental health perspective, smoking and binge eating are essentially the same thing. They're crutches in times of stress.

 

To echo you, I'm also of the left and we seriously need to be having these conversations without fear. Obesity will be the biggest public health issue in this country moving forward as it is. The health consequences spoke for themselves before this and it's clear now that a pattern is emerging in the evidence.

 

Nobody should be shamed for being obese, we are making progress as a country through things like sugar tax and gym referral schemes. We need to reach out to people and go on a journey together as it takes time to change lifelong habits/cultural norms. 

Great post, agree with all of it. X 

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Just now, everton carr said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned elsewhere but what are people's thoughts on the Bill Gates mandatory id2020 vaccine?

Fake news.

 

I haven't quite figured out yet why Bill Gates is getting so much hatred throughout all of this. Of course there's accusations about profiteering but he's been ready for this for a while so he's been able to support a lot of research very quickly. 

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