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Think we are probably going to finish 5th at the moment, today has eased my concerns about Wolves overtaking us. Presuming we do the business against Bournemouth they are going to need three wins and a draw from their last five as their goal difference is pitiful.

 

United are going to piss third place with their form and run in unless we beat Spurs and Arsenal and the rent boys have an easier set of fixtures and are only one point behind.....we need to show up to every game to not be relying on UEFA upholding Man City’s ban.

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2 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Well he’s hardly likely to say anything else is he ??

Exactly, he's fronting it out.

 

I've no idea if it will be overturned or not as I'm not qualified to have an informed opinion but I take comfort in the fact that UEFA banned them after looking at the evidence and the CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport) will come up with a similar conclusion after looking at the same evidence. 

 

I'm hoping it's like VAR that only a clear and obvious error should result in an overturn. A week on Monday could be the most important day left this season for us and the teams around us

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The remaining fixtures for us and the chasing pack are as follows:

 

Leicester (58pts, +32 GD)

 

Arsenal (A) - we play after Chelsea but before Wolves and Man U

 

Bournemouth (A) -  we play after Chelsea and Wolves but before Man U

 

Sheff Utd (H) - we play after Chelsea and Wolves but before Man U

 

Spurs (A) - we play before Wolves, Man U and Chelsea

 

Man U (H) - everyone plays at the same time

 

Chelsea (57pts, +16 GD)

 

Crystal Palace (A)

Sheff Utd (A)

Norwich (H)

Liverpool (A)

Wolves (H)

 

Man Utd (55pts, +23 GD)

 

Villa (A)

Southampton (H)

Palace (A)

West Ham (H)

Leicester (A)

 

Wolves (52pts, +9 GD)

 

Sheff Utd (A)

Everton (H)

Burnley (A)

Palace (H)

Chelsea (A)

Edited by Nalis

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My take on the current situation :

 

Wolves: At best 62 points is possibly the most they will get. That’s generous too. So to cut it short, I think we should finish above them now and we can rule them out effectively.

 

Man Utd: I think going into our game they will potentially have 67 points, but let’s say 65 lowest. I can’t reasonably see them dropping points In any of those games but more than 1 blip there seems very unlikely so I’d say 65 at worst going into the last game.

This means unless we get 10 points out of our 4 games, or maybe even full 12..we are going to need to take points off Utd.

the whole thing seems very unlikely, so I think Utd are a shoe in for 3rd.

 

For me it’s between us and Chelsea:

Now Chelsea have some tricky away games and Wolves at home.

they only have Norwich that’s a banker 3 points.

With 57 currently I could see Chelsea going into the Wolves game with at most 67 but possibly as low as 64. They will win at least 2, might draw at palace or Shef u and maybe lose to liverpool(part of me worries they won’t turn up). Liverpool at least won’t want to lose their home record so it’ll be hard for a Chelsea win, so if they drop points in 2 games they really only can get 8 points max and therefore 65.

 

So how I see it is , it’s in our own hands technically but because we have the toughest fixtures by a mile, we will probably need to either hope we get favours or win away at Arsenal or Spurs or maybe both!!

Both seem unlikely so for me we’re underdogs.

 

We will very likely have to need something Vs Utd last day. If we need a draw then we might stand a chance(I’d still be very fearful) but if we needed a win or bust then I honestly think we’re done for.

So we really need to be at least 2 points clear of Chelsea going into the last round.

, which means we will probably need 66-67 points minimum.

I think the minimum we need is to pick up 7 points and have 65 and pray we’re ahead. That would at least give us a chance if Wolves helped us or we beat Utd somehow.

If Chelsea get 7 from there next 4(the absolute lowest I could realistically see). They would have 64 going into last game, meaning we probably need at least 67 points to have a genuine/good chance to make it.
 

Cutting all the permutations out of it, can we get 9 points? We probably need 3 wins, meaning no hiccups in the 2 ‘easy’ games on paper and somehow winning away at 1 of Arsenal or Spurs, it’s going to be very difficult I feel!

If we get 8 points(2 wins and draw the 2 tough ones) get to 66. Chelsea lose to Liverpool, Beat Norwich , then our their 2 away games give them 4..they have 64..we’d only need a draw vs Utd and have a back up plan if we lose that they would need to beat Wolves.

Its all ifs and buts but for me after analysing it in detail I think we really need to get at least a draw at Arsenal. Anything less than 8 points out the next 4 for me means we need someone to pull of a miracle vs Chelsea.

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I think come last game, Man U will have had one slip up (Villa away) but won every other game. We will be behind them but can go above by beating them.

 

Chelsea are going to be tricky to predict. They could have stayed on our heels, they could have dropped off us.

 

We will win 2, draw 1 and lose 1 in the next 4. Wolves will be out of sight.

 

Last day bonanza incoming.

Edited by KrefelderFox666

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We all joked about winning the final game of the season vs Man Utd to secure top 4 and break Maguire's heart. This is all set, would be a monumental effort to beat them though right now.

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Still think any team is going to struggle  to pick 4 or 5 wins from the last 5 games as fatigue and injuries kick in!

 

I think Wolves my have given themselves  to much to do finish in the top  4 or 5! 

 

Take 8 points and we have a massive change securing top 4! 

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I think United look set for top 4, it's between us and Chelsea for the other spot. Football is a funny old game though, and I'm sure Arsenal were in a similar position to United last year with easier fixtures going into the final few games and blew it so you never know. All we can do is win as many games as possible. 

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Could do with villa nicking a point at anfield to give them some belief ahead of their game against yanited ....Bournemouth are showing how losing every game just drains the players .....

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If we win 2 of our next 4 (6 points), or 1 win and 3 draw (6 points), and wolves lose 1 before final game or draw 2. Then if we beat man u on final it will guarantee top 4. Winning 4 will do too. 3 wins and 2 draws will also do if Liverpool beat chelsea. All pending goal difference being superior.

Edited by lcfcfoz

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4 minutes ago, lcfcfoz said:

If we win 2 of our next 4, and wolves lose 1 before final game or draw 2. Then if we beat man u on final it will guarantee top 4. Winning 4 will do too. 3 wins and 2 draws will also do if Liverpool beat chelsea. All pending goal difference being superior.

Will it?

 

thats nine points - 67

 

yanited have 18 to play for so 15 makes 70 ???

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2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Will it?

 

thats nine points - 67

 

yanited have 18 to play for so 15 makes 70 ???

But only get 15 if they lose to us. It would mean we need to win 3 of last 5, but must include beating man utd.

Edited by lcfcfoz
.

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The next set of games is decisive if we are going to retain 3rd or if it’s going to be a battle to claim 4th/5th. 
 

I wonder if there’s a psychological benefit of us still being top 4 regardless of midweek fixtures 

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A couple of scenarios that might be interesting on the last day: what if a draw guarantees both us and man united top 4? Would we pass it around for a 0-0? 
 

or what if Man United continue to storm it and are already guaranteed top 4, does that make the game a bit easier? 

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Hard not to see Manure getting third place. They look a bit good. Beating them in the last game would take a heroic effort. 

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2 minutes ago, Duncan_K said:

A couple of scenarios that might be interesting on the last day: what if a draw guarantees both us and man united top 4? Would we pass it around for a 0-0? 
 

or what if Man United continue to storm it and are already guaranteed top 4, does that make the game a bit easier? 

Man City’s situation could completely kill the tension - if CL spots go to 5th and one team stumbles badly from here, it will be done before we even get there 

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Win 5 = 3rd

win 4 draw against united top 4 guaranteed, 3rd if Chelsea drop any points

win 3 and with our points diff should be enough for top 5

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This is where Brendan needs to take a leaf out of Claudio’s book and peddle out the ‘one game at a time’ mantra. Reading the above has stressed me out so can only imagine what it’s gonna do to the players. 

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1 hour ago, lcfcfoz said:

But only get 15 if they lose to us. It would mean we need to win 3 of last 5, but must include beating man utd.

Sorry - there’s only five left now (not six)

 

so 12 gets them 67 which should mean three wins is enough - yes (if we don’t lose to them final game) 

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Just now, st albans fox said:

What I said 

What did you say again?.

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