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Aus Fox

Champions League Points Required

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Just now, st albans fox said:

not sure .... I got it wrong first time ......

Ah. Makes sense now 

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If Man U win all their remaining games that would be 8 wins in a row, the last time they won 8 league games in a row was the 2011-12 season under Fergie which is unbelievable as they are no way near the team they were 10 years ago, it says a lot about Bruno Fernandes as this might actually happen 

Edited by foxestalkisfullofidiots

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Updated 
All the teams that can catch us and their Maximum points. Keeping in mind that many of these still have to play each other.

Leicester     73

Chelsea       72

Man Utd      70

Wolves        67

Arsenal        64

Sheff Utd     63

Spurs           63

Burnley        61

Everton        62

Newcastle   60  

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Correct me if I'm wrong but given our goal difference 3 wins should ensure Champions League provided that one of those wins is against Manchester United (OK a tough ask)

I think 2 wins would be enough for top 5

 

 

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Saw one of our lengthy crap periods coming up after the first game back ...  no intensiteeee, no pashuuuun, no leaders, no desire, etc ..  you know ..  all the old Puel stuff.  And boy does it take some shaking off ! . They finally seemed to wake up a bit yesterday, probably helped by Palace doing an impression of a team of headless chickens.  Hopefully they will now push on and improve.   However ...  the chasing pack are all playing extremely well and probably have an easier run in ...   so unfortunately it might be a case of too little too late.  And the head honchos at Citeh have told Pep that ‘in their opinion’ they will definitely be in Europe next season ...  maybe they know something we don’t.  
 

 See us ending up 6th, or 5th if we are lucky.   Hope I’m completely wrong !!!!  

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34 minutes ago, Edingleyfox said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but given our goal difference 3 wins should ensure Champions League provided that one of those wins is against Manchester United (OK a tough ask)

I think 2 wins would be enough for top 5

 

 

Quite correct, unless Manure go on a crazy scoring spree in winning their other 4 games

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It’s not fair we’ve now had an injury to madisson too and Perez plus chilwell just as the confidence and swagger is returning with Vardy finally finding his shooting boots.

might need the old guards if Morgan and fuchs to play at the right times to steady the ship. They’ve been thru this pressure before.

i hope manu suffer some injuries to Their key players and they have so many!

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9 hours ago, deanolegend1989 said:

My take on the current situation :

 

Wolves: At best 62 points is possibly the most they will get. That’s generous too. So to cut it short, I think we should finish above them now and we can rule them out effectively.

 

Man Utd: I think going into our game they will potentially have 67 points, but let’s say 65 lowest. I can’t reasonably see them dropping points In any of those games but more than 1 blip there seems very unlikely so I’d say 65 at worst going into the last game.

This means unless we get 10 points out of our 4 games, or maybe even full 12..we are going to need to take points off Utd.

the whole thing seems very unlikely, so I think Utd are a shoe in for 3rd.

 

For me it’s between us and Chelsea:

Now Chelsea have some tricky away games and Wolves at home.

they only have Norwich that’s a banker 3 points.

With 57 currently I could see Chelsea going into the Wolves game with at most 67 but possibly as low as 64. They will win at least 2, might draw at palace or Shef u and maybe lose to liverpool(part of me worries they won’t turn up). Liverpool at least won’t want to lose their home record so it’ll be hard for a Chelsea win, so if they drop points in 2 games they really only can get 8 points max and therefore 65.

 

So how I see it is , it’s in our own hands technically but because we have the toughest fixtures by a mile, we will probably need to either hope we get favours or win away at Arsenal or Spurs or maybe both!!

Both seem unlikely so for me we’re underdogs.

 

We will very likely have to need something Vs Utd last day. If we need a draw then we might stand a chance(I’d still be very fearful) but if we needed a win or bust then I honestly think we’re done for.

So we really need to be at least 2 points clear of Chelsea going into the last round.

, which means we will probably need 66-67 points minimum.

I think the minimum we need is to pick up 7 points and have 65 and pray we’re ahead. That would at least give us a chance if Wolves helped us or we beat Utd somehow.

If Chelsea get 7 from there next 4(the absolute lowest I could realistically see). They would have 64 going into last game, meaning we probably need at least 67 points to have a genuine/good chance to make it.
 

Cutting all the permutations out of it, can we get 9 points? We probably need 3 wins, meaning no hiccups in the 2 ‘easy’ games on paper and somehow winning away at 1 of Arsenal or Spurs, it’s going to be very difficult I feel!

If we get 8 points(2 wins and draw the 2 tough ones) get to 66. Chelsea lose to Liverpool, Beat Norwich , then our their 2 away games give them 4..they have 64..we’d only need a draw vs Utd and have a back up plan if we lose that they would need to beat Wolves.

Its all ifs and buts but for me after analysing it in detail I think we really need to get at least a draw at Arsenal. Anything less than 8 points out the next 4 for me means we need someone to pull of a miracle vs Chelsea.

Crikey. You've put a lot of thought into this. I think you need a drink. 

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3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games will guarantee us top 4 because it will mean we either draw with or beat Man U. As a result the maximum number of points they can get is 68 and we will have at least 69. 69 would also mean that we finish above Chelsea unless they get a point or more at Liverpool and drop no other points. The maximum that Wolves can get now is 67.

 

So we'd have to beat Sheff U, Bournemouth and one of Arsenal or Tottenham whilst drawing the other 2 games. 

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12 minutes ago, Sunbury Fox said:

3 wins and 2 draws from the last 5 games will guarantee us top 4 because it will mean we either draw with or beat Man U. As a result the maximum number of points they can get is 68 and we will have at least 69. 69 would also mean that we finish above Chelsea unless they get a point or more at Liverpool and drop no other points. The maximum that Wolves can get now is 67.

 

So we'd have to beat Sheff U, Bournemouth and one of Arsenal or Tottenham whilst drawing the other 2 games. 

Whst are you smoking. We will be lucky to get one win and two draws ..

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I'm not saying that is what will happen. I'm just saying the minimum number of points required to guarantee CL qualification as that was the point of the thread. I fear that we'll get 7 or 8 more which will probably mean that we fall just short unless Man City's ban is upheld.

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Updated 
All the teams that can catch us and their Maximum points. Keeping in mind that many of these still have to play each other.

Leicester     73

Chelsea       72

Man Utd      70

Wolves        67

Arsenal        64

Sheff Utd     63

Spurs           63

Burnley        61

Everton        62

 

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8 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Updated 
All the teams that can catch us and their Maximum points. Keeping in mind that many of these still have to play each other.

Leicester     73

Chelsea       72

Man Utd      70

Wolves        67

Arsenal        64

Sheff Utd     63

Spurs           63

Burnley        61

Everton        62

 

Realistically, 2 wins guarantees us 5th spot. Or 1 win and 3 draws (6 points basically). Getting 3rd/4th is a lot more complex and relying on Chelsea/Man U to drop enough points unless we win 4 matches (or beat Man U directly, in which case 3 wins are enough).

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At this point, the way we’re playing, if you offered me 65 I’d take it and take my chances.  No worse than 5th, might just pip 4th.

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After the performances of Villa, Southampton and West Ham over the weekend, I'm slightly more confident that Man Utd wont canter to four easy wins.

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Does it work in our favour if Chelsea beat Man U, go above us and we draw Spurs?

 

Assuming we get wins at Sheffield and Bournemouth, with a draw at Arsenal. That puts us on 65 points? By my reckoning, that could send us into a final game (if we lose at Spurs) with us on 65 and them on 64. We'd just need a draw to clinch it. I say "just".

 

Or would it be better for Man U to overtake Chelsea, kind of making our game with them a dead rubber? In theory, Chelsea have a harder run-in and we don't play them.

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Just now, fox_up_north said:

Does it work in our favour if Chelsea beat Man U, go above us and we draw Spurs?

 

Assuming we get wins at Sheffield and Bournemouth, with a draw at Arsenal. That puts us on 65 points? By my reckoning, that could send us into a final game (if we lose at Spurs) with us on 65 and them on 64. We'd just need a draw to clinch it. I say "just".

 

Or would it be better for Man U to overtake Chelsea, kind of making our game with them a dead rubber? In theory, Chelsea have a harder run-in and we don't play them.

Man Utd v Chelsea is in the fa cup, not the league. Would make life a lot easier if it was the league!

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Oh damn. Well that's soured my morning.

 

Google just gave me the fixtures with no context. Completely forgot about the cup. 

 

Maybe Kante could do a leg breaker on Fernandes. 

Edited by fox_up_north

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Highly unlikely Man City ban will be overturned 

 

As with AC Milan ban the initial it was a 2 year ban then CAS reduce to 1 year 

 

With Man City case much more worse than AC Milan I expect the same punishment 

 

imo one more win needed for 5th place

 

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Its not unfeasible that, with 10 minutes to go in our last game, that we are drawing and a loss puts us 6th, a draw would get us 5th but a win would put us in the top 4. If the CAS decision is delayed until after the season end, it would be some decision to either hang on for a draw for nothing or potentially go all out attack only to lose and finish 6th only to realise 5th subsequently gets a champions league spot.

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1 minute ago, Nalis said:

Its not unfeasible that, with 10 minutes to go in our last game, that we are drawing and a loss puts us 6th, a draw would get us 5th but a win would put us in the top 4. If the CAS decision is delayed until after the season end, it would be some decision to either hang on for a draw for nothing or potentially go all out attack only to lose and finish 6th only to realise 5th subsequently gets a champions league spot.

 
 

next Monday is the verdict 

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It won't happen as they'll be well above us by then, but can you imagine how corrupt the last game would be if Man U needed the win?

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18 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Its not unfeasible that, with 10 minutes to go in our last game, that we are drawing and a loss puts us 6th, a draw would get us 5th but a win would put us in the top 4. If the CAS decision is delayed until after the season end, it would be some decision to either hang on for a draw for nothing or potentially go all out attack only to lose and finish 6th only to realise 5th subsequently gets a champions league spot.

Imagine if the verdict gets delayedlol Corruption of the highest order.

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