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Aus Fox

Champions League Points Required

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The permutations are a massive headache but categorically WE HAVE to beat Sheff Utd and Bournemouth now.

 

The rest are nice to haves but without the above 6pts we're likely buggered anyway especially if we have a few out with injury.

Draws at Arsenal and Tottenham would be amazing, though funnily enough, The Special One is working his unhappiness magic at Tottenham, and maybe we will mug them and get 3pts, they look at mess and might have nothing to play for by then, see Newcastle United A 2015/16, last game of season.

If it does go down the drain, it will the 1st 3 games on the restart.  We just didn't seem to recognise the importance of them and how it could make life easier down the road.

1) Hold out for 5 mins 1-0 up, when played badly, Ndidi's header had gone out for a throw not a corner, Vardy got his head to the corner.......

2) Got to win your home games against the teams near the bottom, never got out of the blocks against Brighton and it was a must win game with what was to come

3) Absolutely deserved a point at Everton, 2-0 down after 15, its likely done.  But Ndidi handball clear and obvious, why did it then take 3 mins to decide, Coleman handball based on the same principle, the ball struck the hand - same as Ndidi, the hand was away from the side, penalty.  Or Keane could have just failed to clear it off the line.

 

So lets go at Arsenal to start with, believe in yourself boys, Vardy's back on the frame, Arsenal are poor at the back, Brighton beat them too!!! C'mon Lestah.

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Wins required to be mathematically assured:-

3rd - 5 wins - 100%

4th - 4 wins - 80%

5th - 3 wins - 60%

6th - 1 win - 20% (due to us playing Arsenal tomorrow)

 

On the basis of the last five games form, the table projects to finish like this:-

Chelsea 69 

Man Utd 68  

Leicester 66 - suggesting we will achieve 8 points 

Wolves 62 

 

Chelsea would require 9 points - 60% to catch us on that form basis - 3 wins

Man United would require 11 points - 73% to catch us - 4 wins or 3 wins and 2 draws

Wolves - 14 points - therefore meaning a 100% record - 5 wins 

 

On the basis of the last ten games form, the table projects to finish like this:-

Manchester United 66

Chelsea 66

Leicester 65 - suggestions we will achieve 7 points 

Wolves 61

 

Chelsea would require 8 points - 53% - 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws

Man Utd 10 pts - 66% - 4 wins or 3 wins and a draw

Wolves 13 pts 86% - 5 wins or 4 wins and a draw 

 

If we were to win one more game all season, bringing us to 61 points - Wolves will need 10 points to catch us from 15 available points. When you consider they play Chelsea last day, it's kinda in our benefit. It's crucial time now. 

 

 

 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox
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I think teams will figure out Man Utd. Great going forward but if you don't give them space in behind it limits their threat as they have great pace in their team. Chelsea are far too inconsistent and will drop points. It's going to be a tight race but if we don't lose to united on the final day I think we'll do enough in the other games to get 4th at least. Having a lead at this moment in time is crucial. Hopefully we do the business against arsenal tomorrow!

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21 minutes ago, Steve Earle said:

Well we probably need 4 points+ from these two away games...less and it becomes a bit of a mountain

I always reckon you never 'need' a result until you actually need a result, if that makes sense.

 

 

I'd take a point at the arse tomorrow 

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I’ve looked at that table so much my head hurts - and may not be functioning properly.  But I think ...... and there’s a big IF coming ..... we only need to beat Bournemouth and Sheff Utd. We can lose to Arsenal and Spurs ....... here it comes ......IF we don’t lose to Utd on last day. Our goal diff would probably carry us over the line. 😳😳😳. In such a scenario, I doubt  my heart would hold out, so good luck  as you battle Juve or Barca next season. 

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With that tonight we are still in fourth, a win against Bournemouth and we are certain of Europa league and a top 6 finish.

 

Chelsea       72

Leicester     71

Man Utd      70

Wolves        67

Sheff Utd     63

Spurs           63

Arsenal        62

Burnley        61

Edited by Aus Fox

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Sheff u are home against Wolves this wed then home against Chelsea on Saturday, Lets hope they can steal a few points

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14 hours ago, TrentFox said:

I’ve looked at that table so much my head hurts - and may not be functioning properly.  But I think ...... and there’s a big IF coming ..... we only need to beat Bournemouth and Sheff Utd. We can lose to Arsenal and Spurs ....... here it comes ......IF we don’t lose to Utd on last day. Our goal diff would probably carry us over the line. 😳😳😳. In such a scenario, I doubt  my heart would hold out, so good luck  as you battle Juve or Barca next season. 

Man U are only 9 goals behind us on GD, the way they're scoring makes me worry about that too lol

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9 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Leicester     73

Chelsea       72

Man Utd      70

Wolves        67

Arsenal        64

Sheff Utd     63

Spurs           63

Burnley        61

Everton        59

Not a chance we finish on 73 points....do you realise that's only 8 points less than we had when we won the league?

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Still think 8 points from the last 5 will be enough, especially if any those come against United! 

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My simplistic viewpoint. :ph34r:

 

One more point (or same total points due to goal difference) than the total points that two out of Chelsea, Man U or Wolves achieve for the season should do it.

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26 minutes ago, tickler28 said:

Not a chance we finish on 73 points....do you realise that's only 8 points less than we had when we won the league?

:nigel:That’s not how many I think we will finish on. That’s everyone’s maximum points available.

I’ve been updating them game by game throughout the thread.

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I still think it is between us, Chelsea and Man U to battle for 3rd/4th/5th. And I don't think anything will be decided until the last match. Even then, it might be a dead rubber if Man City's ban is confirmed. Only prize money to play for then (and pride of course!).

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Just now, KrefelderFox666 said:

I still think it is between us, Chelsea and Man U to battle for 3rd/4th/5th. And I don't think anything will be decided until the last match. Even then, it might be a dead rubber if Man City's ban is confirmed. Only prize money to play for then (and pride of course!).


You might as well chuck Wolves in then you’ve got all bases covered ..

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image.thumb.png.c0f6c4cb71bcdeb81a9c4058c5b49a1a.png

 

 

In a weird way it's more about what Chelsea and Wolves do now, rather than Man U (assuming Man City's ban is upheld and 5th is enough).

 

3 teams out of Leicester, Chelsea, Man U and Wolves will finish 3rd to 5th. We still need to be targeting 64 points - two more wins could be enough. Wolves will have to win 4 or 5 of their remaining games to get 64+ points. 

 

I don't see Wolves doing that, so if 5th is enough we're probably OK unless we have a complete collapse. 

 

So see how we do tonight, but it's the Bournemouth and Sheffield games that are make or break.

 

But psychologically the next 2 days could be massive, as we could easily lose tonight and the other 3 all win. 

 

 

Edited by Les-TA-Jon

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1 hour ago, Countryfox said:


You might as well chuck Wolves in then you’ve got all bases covered ..

The point is, I am not including Wolves because I think we have enough to hold them off and they will not catch up the gap...

 

Chelsea and Man U won't go away, they are much too close to us and I doubt we will go on a 3/4 game winning run now.

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1 hour ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

 

image.thumb.png.c0f6c4cb71bcdeb81a9c4058c5b49a1a.png

 

 

In a weird way it's more about what Chelsea and Wolves do now, rather than Man U (assuming Man City's ban is upheld and 5th is enough).

 

3 teams out of Leicester, Chelsea, Man U and Wolves will finish 3rd to 5th. We still need to be targeting 64 points - two more wins could be enough. Wolves will have to win 4 or 5 of their remaining games to get 64+ points. 

 

I don't see Wolves doing that, so if 5th is enough we're probably OK unless we have a complete collapse. 

 

So see how we do tonight, but it's the Bournemouth and Sheffield games that are make or break.

 

But psychologically the next 2 days could be massive, as we could easily lose tonight and the other 3 all win. 

 

 

The predicted points seems to be based on season form rather than recent form, there is no way we we outscoring man utd on points before end of season.

 

is there another one of these where its not a rose tinted view? ;)

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1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

The predicted points seems to be based on season form rather than recent form, there is no way we we outscoring man utd on points before end of season.

 

is there another one of these where its not a rose tinted view? ;)

The predicted points is based purely on points per game over the whole season so far. Ours comes out as 67 - which means us getting 9 more points. Which as you say seems very favourable to us. 

 

But I'm not talking about us needing or getting 67 points. We won't need 67 points anyhow, as Wolves, Spurs and Arsenal can't achieve that total. 

 

As I say, I think we need 64 points

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9 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

The predicted points is based purely on points per game over the whole season so far. Ours comes out as 67 - which means us getting 9 more points. Which as you say seems very favourable to us. 

 

But I'm not talking about us needing or getting 67 points. We won't need 67 points anyhow, as Wolves, Spurs and Arsenal can't achieve that total. 

 

As I say, I think we need 64 points


For 4th or 5th? 
 

Regardless, tonight’s game is massive. Win and we go into Sheff Utd and Bournemouth with some real momentum and belief. Lose and we could be a position that sees us implode more than we did after the restart. 
 

I do think Man Utd and Chelsea will lose at least one more game each. 

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15 minutes ago, Leeds Fox said:


For 4th or 5th? 
 

Regardless, tonight’s game is massive. Win and we go into Sheff Utd and Bournemouth with some real momentum and belief. Lose and we could be a position that sees us implode more than we did after the restart. 
 

I do think Man Utd and Chelsea will lose at least one more game each. 

For 5th in all likelihood. For 64 points to be enough for 4th, Man Utd need to drop 6 points which I don't see happening - and/or Chelsea dropping 8. 

Edited by Les-TA-Jon
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Chelsea and Wolves have  tough run ins,,,,,Chelsea, Palace, Sheff U Liverpool away,Wolves at home, all hard to call.

 

Wolves could well not win any of their remaining games.....worst case scenario,Foxes need to beat United last game....quite capable of doing that......

 

Would take, and fancy, a point tonight....

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just looking at the remaining games, Sheff utd could have a big say in the outcome. aside from chasing their own European qualification, they also have to play ourselves, Wolves and Chelsea. The outcomes of those games are likely to be significant come the final reckoning. Palace too play all of our rivals but don't hold out much hope of them taking points from any of them after their lacklustre display against us and they have nothing really to play for

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I think its naive to operate on the basis that 5th will be enough. Man City have enough money to make this go sufficiently away that they can stay in competition. Surely they'd take a massive fine and some squad restrictions or something.

Edited by ealingfox

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3 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

But psychologically the next 2 days could be massive, as we could easily lose tonight and the other 3 all win.

Don't know why you have used the word "easily", the odds of that scenario is around 10/1, so although it can happen only around a 9% probability

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