Jump to content
Aus Fox

Champions League Points Required

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, nnickn said:

Don't know why you have used the word "easily", the odds of that scenario is around 10/1, so although it can happen only around a 9% probability

I meant we could easily lose tonight. And the other 3 win as a separate thing. Not all bundled into one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ealingfox said:

I think its naive to operate on the basis that 5th will be enough. Man City have enough money to make this go sufficiently away that they can stay in competition. Surely they'd take a massive fine and some squad restrictions or something.

Agreed. 4th until we know the result of their appeal. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

There's not much point to discussing this further until the 13th.  The CAS decision will be the difference between needing 65 - 67-ish points or more like 60 - 62.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, KingsX said:

 

There's not much point to discussing this further until the 13th.  The CAS decision will be the difference between needing 65 - 67-ish points or more like 60 - 62.

This.

If Man City are banned I think we're good. 

 

Otherwise it's between us and Chelsea for 4th probably with similar difficulty games.

 

Come on Palace...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ealingfox said:

I think its naive to operate on the basis that 5th will be enough. Man City have enough money to make this go sufficiently away that they can stay in competition. Surely they'd take a massive fine and some squad restrictions or something.

Oh the irony of Man City having enough money to make their predicament go away, when the whole reason for the two year van from European competition is because of their financial wrongdoings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With that tonight we are still in fourth, a win against Bournemouth and we are certain of Europa league and a top 6 finish.

 

Chelsea       72

Leicester     71

Man Utd      70

Wolves        67

Sheff Utd     63

Spurs           63

Arsenal        62

Burnley        61

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chelsea have to play Sheff Utd and Liverpool away and Wolves at home. We can still get over the line.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just need the Man City ban to be upheld. So us, Chelsea and United can calm the **** down.

 

Screenshot_20200707-233826_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f6cc59f66794c970c114d70bef78e10b.jpg

Edited by Koke
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Say man u win 3 and get a draw out of next 4. We win 2 and lose 1. That will put us on equal points going into the crunch final game v them.

 

So we would "just" need not to lose to them!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

man utd have a very  easy  run in. us and chelsea have it less easy.

i can see both of them  getting 9 points from their final  games at least, and it depends what man utd do with their game in hand. win and they're only a point behind, lose that and it's game on, but they're playing villa. :)

we need a minimum of 2 wins and a draw before the last game where a draw might be good enough, but i  can't see us getting that on  current form.

i  think we're going to come up a point short of 5th never mind CL.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Mythyaar said:

Say man u win 3 and get a draw out of next 4. We win 2 and lose 1. That will put us on equal points going into the crunch final game v them.

 

So we would "just" need not to lose to them!!

If the game is a three point swing either way, it’s a crunch game. They have ten goals to catch on goal difference and given their opponents, I can see that. Anything like a eight goal swing with a final game makes it possible. 
 

As mentioned though the CAS verdict hinges it all, theres a chance both us and Man U go into the game where a point sees us safe because out of Chelsea and Wolves, one of them will drop points 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday is an important three points. Win that, and at the very worst we are still in the top four.

 

We then move on to Monday or whenever the CAS verdict is next week, if it's good news for us then we are at least 4 points clear of 6th with three to go, and that's only if Wolves take two wins from Sheff Utd and Everton.

 

If it's bad news at CAS it remains in our hands. It would take something remarkable for Chelsea to win 6 on the spin; likewise United are unbeaten since January. We'd only need one slip up from United to push the gap back out to 3-4 points, which would be surely enough given GD to not need a result on the final day.

 

Anyway, I have a feeling about Villa on Thursday...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we beat Bournemouth and Sheff Utd and draw with Spurs and Man Utd - not unreasonable we finish on 67 points - Chelsea would need to get 8 points from Wolves, Liverpool, Sheff Utd and Norwich.

Man Utd would need to get maximum points from Villa, Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham.

 

*wolves would need maximum points and a 23 goal turn around in GD - this would also mean Chelsea would need maximum points from their 3 other games to both finish above us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

If we beat Bournemouth and Sheff Utd and draw with Spurs and Man Utd - not unreasonable we finish on 67 points - Chelsea would need to get 8 points from Wolves, Liverpool, Sheff Utd and Norwich.

Man Utd would need to get maximum points from Villa, Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham.

 

*wolves would need maximum points and a 23 goal turn around in GD - this would also mean Chelsea would need maximum points from their 3 other games to both finish above us.

If united got maximum points and then drew with us, they would finish on 68 points 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, jayfox26 said:

If united got maximum points and then drew with us, they would finish on 68 points 

That’s what I said, they would need maximums points to over take us by a point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we need to win or avoid defeat against Man Utd, then I don't fancy our chances. 

 

Final day, at Old Trafford and with a CL spot to be decided? You can almost guarantee a dodgy call from the Ref, especially with VAR at their disposal. 

 

Edit: whoops we're at home aren't we? :facepalm:

Edited by Les-TA-Jon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

If we need to win or avoid defeat against Man Utd, then I don't fancy our chances. 

 

Final day, at Old Trafford and with a CL spot to be decided? You can almost guarantee a dodgy call from the Ref, especially with VAR at their disposal. 

That certainly would be suspicious if the game is played at Old Trafford

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

If we need to win or avoid defeat against Man Utd, then I don't fancy our chances. 

 

Final day, at Old Trafford and with a CL spot to be decided? You can almost guarantee a dodgy call from the Ref, especially with VAR at their disposal. 

We won't be there. We're home

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, harpendenfox said:

That certainly would be suspicious if the game is played at Old Trafford

 

2 minutes ago, lcfcfoz said:

We won't be there. We're home

Haha - whoops - point still stands though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

United throwing the kitchen sink at games with all out attack and it looks impressive, but they were shaky at the back against Bournemouth. I think they probably look the most likely out of the 4 competing at the moment but wouldn't assume they'll pick up all points on offer.

 

I suppose there is some maneuverability on points because of the fixtures. With the game against United on the final day (presuming GD stays healthy) we could be 3 behind and still go into that needing a win to get top 4. Can see a situation where we'd go into the final day 3 points ahead of them and just have to not get spanked...Brendan plays all the CDMs.

 

Personally think Chelsea's run looks more difficult and they have already shown vulnerability by losing to West Ham and squeaking past Palace. But if you asked me to guess where we'll finish at the moment, I'd pick 5th. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Sheffield United beat Wolves tonight or even get a draw, we’d have to completely fall apart to not finish in the top 5, which by Monday could be all we need. Obviously I’d rather us finish higher but qualifying for the Champions League is huge for the kind of signings we are able to make, progressing as a club etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Jack1993 said:

If Sheffield United beat Wolves tonight or even get a draw, we’d have to completely fall apart to not finish in the top 5, which by Monday could be all we need. Obviously I’d rather us finish higher but qualifying for the Champions League is huge for the kind of signings we are able to make, progressing as a club etc. 

Would finishing 5th mean we'd have to play a load of qualifying games?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...