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Well for all those who were bleating on about a mid-winter break they've got their wish plus a spring break and possible a summer one as well. Stay safe!!

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On 14/03/2020 at 18:35, blabyboy said:

Forced isolation also increases the chances of a stronger second or third wave, which in turn makes it harder to develop a vaccine.. which mutated strain are you going to try and stop/slowdown?? Also, when next winter comes around, those that survived the initial wave would have a greater chance of infection as there would be multiple strains and all without a viable vaccine.

 

 Allowing the spread gives a better chance of herd immunity and self inoculation not only against this strain but others that will develop in the coming years.

 

Herding also helps to flatten the peak so your resources (the NHS) have a better chance of handling those infected.

 

Italy tried the lock down without much success, it's population percentage of older people is greater than ours. China is an unknown at present, they've locked down, but have now started reopening again so a key test will be to see if they get a strong second wave.

This seems contradictory? 

 

 

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I plan to start re-reading the Nicky Maynard thread later, that should kill a chunk of time.

 

Perhaps some classic threads should be 'bumped' to cheer us all up?

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8 hours ago, Guybino said:

 

you could well be right!

 

but I think people are misunderstanding my point, it was in reply to someone suggesting that democratic socialism never works.

It works much better without the involvement of 'economic hitmen' and CIA-backed 'rebel groups', manufactured instability and assassination :)

 

What? General chat forum? Never heard of it

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  On 14/03/2020 at 18:35, blabyboy said:

Forced isolation also increases the chances of a stronger second or third wave, which in turn makes it harder to develop a vaccine.. which mutated strain are you going to try and stop/slowdown?? Also, when next winter comes around, those that survived the initial wave would have a greater chance of infection as there would be multiple strains and all without a viable vaccine.

 

 Allowing the spread gives a better chance of herd immunity and self inoculation not only against this strain but others that will develop in the coming years.

 

Herding also helps to flatten the peak so your resources (the NHS) have a better chance of handling those infected.

 

Italy tried the lock down without much success, it's population percentage of older people is greater than ours. China is an unknown at present, they've locked down, but have now started reopening again so a key test will be to see if they get a strong second wave.

Quote

This seems contradictory? 

How so? Can you explain the contradiction a bit more please as you see it.

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Was reading today how a sportsman’s immune system is actually quite poor. This is due to the intense stress they place their bodies under. 
 

It was described as a U curve. Danger at the top...inactive people on the top of the left U and fit sportsmen on the top of the right U 

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15 hours ago, Bourbon Fox said:

It works much better without the involvement of 'economic hitmen' and CIA-backed 'rebel groups', manufactured instability and assassination :)

 

What? General chat forum? Never heard of it

Yes there is a general chat forum, tell that to the guy I was replying to! 

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13 hours ago, blabyboy said:
  On 14/03/2020 at 18:35, blabyboy said:

Forced isolation also increases the chances of a stronger second or third wave, which in turn makes it harder to develop a vaccine.. which mutated strain are you going to try and stop/slowdown?? Also, when next winter comes around, those that survived the initial wave would have a greater chance of infection as there would be multiple strains and all without a viable vaccine.

 

 Allowing the spread gives a better chance of herd immunity and self inoculation not only against this strain but others that will develop in the coming years.

 

Herding also helps to flatten the peak so your resources (the NHS) have a better chance of handling those infected.

 

Italy tried the lock down without much success, it's population percentage of older people is greater than ours. China is an unknown at present, they've locked down, but have now started reopening again so a key test will be to see if they get a strong second wave.

How so? Can you explain the contradiction a bit more please as you see it.

Sorry, my first post wasn't at all explained. And I might be just be misreading it.. 

 

To me the first point claims it hard to develop a vaccine against multiple different strains of the same disease (like flu, hence we repeat vaccinate it every year), but the second point claims allowing the disease to spread will allow a natural immunity to other strains that will appear. 

 

Is there some difference between a man made and natural development of immunity that makes the former specific to one strain, but the latter effective over multiple strains? 

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30 minutes ago, AS78UK said:

How does herding help flatten a peak? Surely it creates a peak.....confused.com. 

Not that kind of herding .......

 

herd immunity 

 

it’s no longer the idea anyway ....

 

 

 

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Something I looked into this morning, should the league get voided and UEFA decide to use coefficient to decide who gets European football, we would still actually get Europa League

 

These are the current rankings...

 

26757D1D-FD4B-45AC-B0B0-14F0B948F536.jpeg

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26 minutes ago, Aus Fox said:

While that would be okay, watching Arsenal and Spurs running around in our Champions League spot would kill me.

Yes especially with how shit they have been.  

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23 minutes ago, when_you're_smiling said:

Don’t worry lads - Pussy Man Dan has got this.

 

 

773E5F9B-33B4-4B29-B5ED-56D10A4D34FE.jpeg

Should have included VAR as well.

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On 18/03/2020 at 08:16, moore_94 said:

Something I looked into this morning, should the league get voided and UEFA decide to use coefficient to decide who gets European football, we would still actually get Europa League

 

These are the current rankings...

 

26757D1D-FD4B-45AC-B0B0-14F0B948F536.jpeg

God, if there wasn't enough bad news around. Europa league?!

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On 18/03/2020 at 10:33, AS78UK said:

How does herding help flatten a peak? Surely it creates a peak.....confused.com. 

Give it to most people - including those it may kill - then they can't get it again, and it can't continue to spread, and people continue to work.

 

It sacrifice lives for the economy, rather than wait for a vaccine and temporarily pump money into the economy.

 

The government's strategy is conflicted

  • tell people to isolate, so as not kill your gran or asthma sufferer
  • don't financially help out, so people go to work, spreading the disease, eventually reaching your gran and asthma sufferer

The gov has delayed a few business taxes, I've noticed, but nothing that helps people pay the bills and stay at home

 

Edited by Foxxed

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9 minutes ago, Foxxed said:

Give it to most people - including those it may kill - then they can't get it again, and it can't continue to spread.

 

The government's strategy is conflicted

  • tell people to isolate, so as not kill your gran or asthma sufferer
  • don't financially help out, so people go to work, spreading the disease, eventually reaching your gran and asthma sufferer

The gov has delayed a few business taxes, I've noticed, but nothing that helps people pay the bills and stay at home

 

What if we were to give it to people who were under fifty and and on good health, on a voluntary basis, you go to the chemist collect your virus vile, go home take it and isolate for 14 days, then you don't need to be tested, you've had it, you can't pass it on so the virus can't use you to transmit and you could go about your life normally.

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On 16/03/2020 at 21:26, blabyboy said:
  On 14/03/2020 at 18:35, blabyboy said:

Forced isolation also increases the chances of a stronger second or third wave, which in turn makes it harder to develop a vaccine.. which mutated strain are you going to try and stop/slowdown?? Also, when next winter comes around, those that survived the initial wave would have a greater chance of infection as there would be multiple strains and all without a viable vaccine.

 

 Allowing the spread gives a better chance of herd immunity and self inoculation not only against this strain but others that will develop in the coming years.

 

Herding also helps to flatten the peak so your resources (the NHS) have a better chance of handling those infected.

 

Italy tried the lock down without much success, it's population percentage of older people is greater than ours. China is an unknown at present, they've locked down, but have now started reopening again so a key test will be to see if they get a strong second wave.

 

Hi Volepeazzuro,

First off, my apologies in delaying a reply. Secondly, no offence taken, the maxim "Trust, but verify" is a great one for these times  :)

 

My points were based in fact. The 'Flu' jab that you, I or others might receive each season is a 'best guess' of the strain that will be the main version in that year's season. Scientists incubate the strains, then kill them and effectively inject the dead version into the patient to allow the body to recognise it as a virus and then build antibodies against it. It's a best guess, which is why in some seasons, we have a 'flare' because it's a different strain that dominates. It's a bit of a bugger's muddle. See here for a concise but informative way on how they choose (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm)

 

TLDR; It's regional, so a Flu jab in the US will be different to the one in the UK, to the one in Japan.. and so on. And they have to do it 6 months in advance!

 

To draw comparison with your link (very good btw), the virus has mutated 3 points from the origin - and that's just in that patient, so how many more times might it be mutated before we get to the point of being able to create a viable vaccine that as you say, covers many different mutations - the answer is I/we do not know. We need a lot more cases before we can be confident that that one vaccine will work against multiple strains.

 

[side note] Not sure if you caught it, but an important point in the UK PM's update today was that secondary testing (those that have caught and beaten the virus) is now key because it will tell us: the infection rate; the survival rate; the amount of ppl that needed treatment vs how many could self-isolate... and will provide many more samples for testing against mutated strains. South Korea and Hong Kong took a very different approach to minimise the spread at the beginning of when they thought an infection may be coming. Both _could_ be valid and viable ways to deal with this threat and will be picked over in the years to come.

 

With regards to the mutations, the problem we have is that pretty much all of the countries infected thus far have said that no vaccine is going to be available for at least a year - possibly 18 months depending upon how rigorous the testing is going to be. So, you are right that eventually ( I hope) there will be a vaccine, but not in the short to mid-term and that means mutations may have a significant part of play come this Autumn/Winter, especially to those that have self-isolated and managed to avoid the original strain. The one exception is the US who claim to be near to getting a vaccine (well Trump says so!), but I personally think this is more for political purposes than what will actually happen, especially given their previous mistakes in having a diagnostic test that failed miserably earlier this year.

 

With regards to China especially. It is now very clear that they did too little too late, China had reports in November `19 and sat on them thinking they could contain their first wave - information for any second wave will be vital, but I would venture that it is not looking too promising for the Chinese authorities to be forthcoming on that. For Italy, it is perhaps a case of being unprepared and then trying to minimise spread 'once the horse has bolted'. I very much agree with you that a one-size does not fit all in this case, which is why although Europe is closing it's borders, but the messages coming out from each country are slightly different - some are enforcing shut-downs, others are recommending (appearing to be less authoritarian). The makeup of the population is also very important and perhaps why Italy is seeing more deaths due it having a greater percentage of more mature people, hence a higher death rate that those countries around it. You could also argue that Italy has been the 'canary in the coal mine' for Europe and other countries are now more prepared. The facts on the population makeup are out there for all to see, the time between China's first initial reports and when Wuhan went into lock-down is established, as is there ability to silence discussion around it.

 

But don't take my word for it, use the most powerful tool that humans have created and find out for yourself instead of posting on FT  :)  

Cognoscere nisi habeat fiduciam

 

Thank you, very good post. It's a very complex issue for the experts let alone me. It is also why I have a certain sympathy with any government of the day because I would doubt that the average minister, or member of parliament of parliament would likewise have much more of a clue either. They have to trust 'experts', yet we know that experts can disagree but, at some stage, someone has to nail their colours to a particular set of experts mast taking into account a host of issues, health and  socio-economic, both for now and the future. Unless you're in the inner sanctum, nobody is going to know the full decision making process. Some nasty decisions will have to be made whatever people think and whatever their political views. It is very easy for people to say we should have been in lock down sooner or some to say wait even longer but I would suggest that timing is being measured to the endth degree and not on a whim as the landscape changes quite rapidly.

 

People quite understandably always want transparency and want to know everything that's going on and the full decision making process. Unfortunately that can never be for things like this and national security. 

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21 minutes ago, messerschmitt said:

What if we were to give it to people who were under fifty and and on good health, on a voluntary basis, you go to the chemist collect your virus vile, go home take it and isolate for 14 days, then you don't need to be tested, you've had it, you can't pass it on so the virus can't use you to transmit and you could go about your life normally.

You’d need to give them money to stay at home and businesses too. The gov ain’t doing that. Other countries are, even the US strangely.
 

South Korea’s aggressive test everyone and force isolation policy seemed to have worked. But that requires huge amounts of government investment to pull it off.


Instead it’s been: “Fuch it, go get the disease. No, wait don’t, you might kill your gran and friend. Okay, try to isolate but nah we ain’t giving you money to help.”

Edited by Foxxed

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I'm self employed and would quite happily go 14 days without any income as I fear long term this will cost much more, I'd also volunteer to  get the virus as the delay phase excepts that 80% of us will get it at some stage anyway. Think of all those people who are going to be isolating for 14 days then repeating ongoing for months. Doing it this way all the healthy under fifties could have had it 14 days, maybe 60% of the population.

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2 hours ago, messerschmitt said:

I'm self employed and would quite happily go 14 days without any income as I fear long term this will cost much more, I'd also volunteer to  get the virus as the delay phase excepts that 80% of us will get it at some stage anyway. Think of all those people who are going to be isolating for 14 days then repeating ongoing for months. Doing it this way all the healthy under fifties could have had it 14 days, maybe 60% of the population.

Have to be careful here. Just because you are under 60 without any underlying problems DOES NOT mean you will not be severely affected by it, when you get it. There are numerous reports in the US of much younger people being hospitalised due to suspected COV19 infection. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

You simply (at the mo) have a greater chance of dying if you're over 60. not that you will not die if you're under 60. Stay indoors, stay safe.

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On 18/03/2020 at 01:38, Fktf said:

Sorry, my first post wasn't at all explained. And I might be just be misreading it.. 

 

To me the first point claims it hard to develop a vaccine against multiple different strains of the same disease (like flu, hence we repeat vaccinate it every year), but the second point claims allowing the disease to spread will allow a natural immunity to other strains that will appear. 

 

Is there some difference between a man made and natural development of immunity that makes the former specific to one strain, but the latter effective over multiple strains? 

ah, I see what you mean, I think. Ultimately, the herd way (to me) has the advantage that some do contract it and help to flatten the spike, whereas if we have forced isolation, then you could have several spikes that go on for months, because you have the first spike - then lockdown to stop medical services being overwhelmed/morgues filling up - then lockdown ends - secondary infections - another potential lockdown to stop the medical services being overwhelmed again.. and so on until people have either been infected or vaccinated and their bodies can hopefully respond quicker. If you have a significant amount of people that have had it and are 'immune' then the amount of mutations may be greatly reduced (because your body has killed the virus hopefully before spreading) allowing for the best guess vaccine to be much more effective against the strain(s) that are out there.

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On 18/03/2020 at 11:08, when_you're_smiling said:

Don’t worry lads - Pussy Man Dan has got this.

 

 

773E5F9B-33B4-4B29-B5ED-56D10A4D34FE.jpeg

I'm not sure he's got the hang of this whole self-censorship thing...

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