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3 hours ago, foxile5 said:

Not only that, there's a prevailing attitude that men are bastards. That will have huge impact on some folk. 

To expand on this, I think it's more the attitude that they have to be bastards and be likewise immune to emotional bastardry visited upon them to "be a man" that is the crux of the problem, but yeah.

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32 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

To expand on this, I think it's more the attitude that they have to be bastards and be likewise immune to emotional bastardry visited upon them to "be a man" that is the crux of the problem, but yeah.

Partly this but @foxile5 post also rings true. There does seem to be attitudes, pushed in certain areas of the internet, that men, particularly white men, are the bottom of the pile in terms of the whose issues get the most attention, and that masculinity itself is somehow “toxic”. That has tended to spill over into the mainstream a bit lately, with the Gillette advert being a prime example. 

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1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

Partly this but @foxile5 post also rings true. There does seem to be attitudes, pushed in certain areas of the internet, that men, particularly white men, are the bottom of the pile in terms of the whose issues get the most attention, and that masculinity itself is somehow “toxic”. That has tended to spill over into the mainstream a bit lately, with the Gillette advert being a prime example. 

I think this is an agreement on the problem but a disagreement on who is responsible for it - or the direction it's being approached from, anyway.

 

For me, the particular image of masculinity that is considered "toxic" - being the macho, no-emotion-but-anger bloke who has to "man up" every day and can't seek help is perpetuated in the most part by a societal system still run by other blokes, and while you do get the misandrists who weigh in with the "all men are trash" bollix, that doesn't actually contribute as much to male depression and suicide rates as the first thing, IMO. I haven't got any numbers to back that up, but I've a hunch that it's true.

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image.thumb.png.4b62313e80a57d13e5cb61307f6a4c2e.png

 

Worrying

 

This is based on 'where the money is going'.  It's in decimal & 2.0 would be evens, so basically it's all square at the moment.

 

Only a month ago, Biden was clear favourite.  I can only think that things have got worse in the last month & Trump has gotten even more crazy, but he is recovering & trending towards victory in the election.

 

The protesting/violence/law & order/fear is clearly a strategy from Trump & it's working.  If nothing else, it has diverted attention away from the covid cluster****

 

Whatever the election result, America is fvcked

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It is worrying to see that perception has shifted enough that people are putting down enough cash so that the bookies have it 50/50, yeah. There's clearly some substance there and the current action is certainly giving Trump a deflection away from the utterly lamentable response of his administration to the Covid outbreak.

 

That, however, hasn't been matched by a change in polling data to favour Trump as yet - he has had an increase, but only a small one right now. Of course, that could change and there's still a fair way to go until the big event itself.

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54 minutes ago, pSinatra said:

Worrying

 

This is based on 'where the money is going'.  It's in decimal & 2.0 would be evens, so basically it's all square at the moment.

 

Only a month ago, Biden was clear favourite.  I can only think that things have got worse in the last month & Trump has gotten even more crazy, but he is recovering & trending towards victory in the election.

 

The protesting/violence/law & order/fear is clearly a strategy from Trump & it's working.  If nothing else, it has diverted attention away from the covid cluster****

 

Whatever the election result, America is fvcked

 

Worrying indeed. An explanation from anyone with a knowledge of both US politics and the betting industry would be welcome.

MattP might have been that man, but seems to have departed for serious.

 

There seems to have been very little shift in the polls (only a very slight tightening). They still show Biden clearly ahead, though by no means home and dry.

Nate Silver's 538 site seems to be the gold standard for assessing US polls and that still had a 69% chance of a Biden win the other day (little changed).

 

You might be right that punters are taking the view that Trump's "law and order" response to the protests and riots will prove successful - in mobilising his support, and maybe winning over a few waverers?

Also, maybe there's a view that those intending to vote Democrat will turn out in lower numbers, as they did in 2016? Either due to issues like Covid and lack of cash or to Trump's active attempts to suppress postal voting etc.?

I also read that some Democrat supporters are concerned that, in Biden's understandable desire to win over centrist waverers, he's not reaching out much to leftist supporters - who might be short-sighted enough to stay at home & not vote. :dunno:

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7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Worrying indeed. An explanation from anyone with a knowledge of both US politics and the betting industry would be welcome.

MattP might have been that man, but seems to have departed for serious.

 

There seems to have been very little shift in the polls (only a very slight tightening). They still show Biden clearly ahead, though by no means home and dry.

Nate Silver's 538 site seems to be the gold standard for assessing US polls and that still had a 69% chance of a Biden win the other day (little changed).

 

You might be right that punters are taking the view that Trump's "law and order" response to the protests and riots will prove successful - in mobilising his support, and maybe winning over a few waverers?

Also, maybe there's a view that those intending to vote Democrat will turn out in lower numbers, as they did in 2016? Either due to issues like Covid and lack of cash or to Trump's active attempts to suppress postal voting etc.?

I also read that some Democrat supporters are concerned that, in Biden's understandable desire to win over centrist waverers, he's not reaching out much to leftist supporters - who might be short-sighted enough to stay at home & not vote:dunno:

It could just be as simple as people following the leader in a market with nothing tangible behind it, Alf, but it's honestly difficult to say.

 

The bolded are two issues of import, that's certainly true. Voter suppression in the name of "preventing Covid spread" is a real possibility, though you'd hope the DNC are aware of this and are able to respond accordingly either now or through the courts later. There's also quite a few ardent leftists who won't turn out for Biden - but I'm not sure that we're seeing that on the same scale as 2016. Which is good because that, along with other demographics being apathetic towards Hillary, was the main reason Trump won.

 

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2 hours ago, Jattdogg said:

You know my thoughts already on this election and they remain.

 

I can see trump gaining more support from the debates as he lives for that moment.

Seeing as Biden can't keep to the point and sometimes looks completely lost, I can see Trump wiping the floor with him.  Still sort of hoping Biden pulls out late on and is replaced by someone capable.

Edited by Jon the Hat
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To add to the analysis on here right now, this is the current state-by-state markers according to current polling. The deeper the red or blue, the bigger the margin either candidate has.

 

1142865125_Screenshotfrom2020-09-0222-40-33.thumb.png.6837b7f59981dc016bce9331cdf896f4.png

 

As can be seen, Trump needs to hold onto all he has right now and flip Arizona, Florida and Penn to win. Best case scenario for him IMO is if he manages Minnesota and Wisconsin as well - are there really any others that might flip?

 

That would add up to a decent victory (by about 45-50 electoral votes), but hardly a crushing one.

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6 hours ago, pSinatra said:

image.thumb.png.4b62313e80a57d13e5cb61307f6a4c2e.png

 

Worrying

 

This is based on 'where the money is going'.  It's in decimal & 2.0 would be evens, so basically it's all square at the moment.

 

Only a month ago, Biden was clear favourite.  I can only think that things have got worse in the last month & Trump has gotten even more crazy, but he is recovering & trending towards victory in the election.

 

The protesting/violence/law & order/fear is clearly a strategy from Trump & it's working.  If nothing else, it has diverted attention away from the covid cluster****

 

Whatever the election result, America is fvcked

Just proves that USA & Buffoon Britain, are not any better than any past criticise  Banana Republics...

There was a Topic called I believe "are  we getting dumber"....

:dunno:

Naaa we are just a Experimental Laboratory for Aliens...Just look at the mimic of Trump & Johnson,Not forgetting T.May attempt at dancing....

 

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The stuff about James Veitch is grim https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sarah-lawrence-alums-allege-rape-against-comedian-james-veitch?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter 

I'd heard he was a bit of a creep but was never aware how bad it really was and I suspect these allegations only scratch the surface. Hoping that this is at least a catalyst for the big open secret about another sexual predator in UK comedy to spill, as well as others.

Edited by Kopfkino
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1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

The stuff about James Veitch is grim https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sarah-lawrence-alums-allege-rape-against-comedian-james-veitch?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter 

I'd heard he was a bit of a creep but was never aware how bad it really was and I suspect these allegations only scratch the surface. Hoping that this is at least a catalyst for the big open secret about another sexual predator in UK comedy to spill, as well as others.

Genuinely never heard of him.

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54003527

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54002880

 

Two stories that rather sadly prove that most often if you're powerful and drum up folks with a little nationalism, you can do as you like - whether it's assassinating government opponents or stopping "your" soldiers from being accountable for doing inhuman things.

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@pSinatra @leicsmac

 

Interesting, informative FT article here about polling for US presidential election in 2016 and 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/b3297609-e63b-4161-8287-7ab1179d0c40

 

That sounds more encouraging for those who want Trump gone, though it still doesn't really explain the shift in betting (as opposed to polling) in Trump's favour - except that Trump supporters seem more confident than Biden supporters (so maybe that is partly fueling the betting shift?).

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1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

@pSinatra @leicsmac

 

Interesting, informative FT article here about polling for US presidential election in 2016 and 2020: https://www.ft.com/content/b3297609-e63b-4161-8287-7ab1179d0c40

 

That sounds more encouraging for those who want Trump gone, though it still doesn't really explain the shift in betting (as opposed to polling) in Trump's favour - except that Trump supporters seem more confident than Biden supporters (so maybe that is partly fueling the betting shift?).

Sadly behind a paywall, Alf, but I'm sure I can get the gist.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think that betting trend is just punters following the leader with no real substance behind it especially seeing as Biden is starting to stretch his polling lead again.

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13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Sadly behind a paywall, Alf, but I'm sure I can get the gist.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think that betting trend is just punters following the leader with no real substance behind it especially seeing as Biden is starting to stretch his polling lead again.

 

That's weird. It wasn't behind a paywall earlier (and FT articles haven't been for me, recently) - but it is now!

 

From memory, it said:

- Although Biden's numbers are similar to Clinton's in 2016, there were a lot more undecided voters in 2016, which makes Biden's position stronger

- In 2016, the large number of undecided voters broke late for Trump by quite a large margin

- Biden's polling lead is also more consistent (though not larger) than Clinton's was

- A major element in the polls under-estimating Trump in 2016 was that they didn't adjust for education and people with low education were under-represented in their samples....but the pollsters are adjusting for that in 2020

- That last error was important in 2016 as white voters with low levels of education swung in large numbers from Obama to Trump (in 2012, Obama got good support from white voters at both ends of the education spectrum, less so in the middle; in 2016, Clinton's support among white voters was mainly among the highly-educated)

 

However, the article didn't really offer an explanation as to why betting has swung towards Trump in the last couple of months, when the polls have barely moved & Biden still has a clear polling lead.

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32 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That's weird. It wasn't behind a paywall earlier (and FT articles haven't been for me, recently) - but it is now!

 

From memory, it said:

- Although Biden's numbers are similar to Clinton's in 2016, there were a lot more undecided voters in 2016, which makes Biden's position stronger

- In 2016, the large number of undecided voters broke late for Trump by quite a large margin

- Biden's polling lead is also more consistent (though not larger) than Clinton's was

- A major element in the polls under-estimating Trump in 2016 was that they didn't adjust for education and people with low education were under-represented in their samples....but the pollsters are adjusting for that in 2020

- That last error was important in 2016 as white voters with low levels of education swung in large numbers from Obama to Trump (in 2012, Obama got good support from white voters at both ends of the education spectrum, less so in the middle; in 2016, Clinton's support among white voters was mainly among the highly-educated)

 

However, the article didn't really offer an explanation as to why betting has swung towards Trump in the last couple of months, when the polls have barely moved & Biden still has a clear polling lead.

Yeah, that all sounds about right. The excellent FiveThirtyEight have offered similar analysis and reasoning on how 2020 is not 2016.

 

Evidently, that doesn't stop people thinking that Trump is somehow going to somehow defy the analysis once again though. (This isn't meant personally at anyone on here btw, it's just a bit frustrating to see the same spiel being given so many times by so many folks despite next to no hard evidence for it - or all the evidence having been debunked by articles like this one already.)

 

WRT the betting trend, I think it's difficult to tell, but the explanation above is probably the simplest one.

Edited by leicsmac
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33 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

 

However, the article didn't really offer an explanation as to why betting has swung towards Trump in the last couple of months, when the polls have barely moved & Biden still has a clear polling lead.

Because the betting is a prediction of what people think will happen in 2 months time whereas the polls are a snapshot of public opinion right now, which may or may not be accurate. I think Nate Silver retweeted a guy the other day who said it's either a Biden landslide or very close, there's little in between the two and the betting markets are siding with it being pretty close.

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12 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Because the betting is a prediction of what people think will happen in 2 months time whereas the polls are a snapshot of public opinion right now, which may or may not be accurate. I think Nate Silver retweeted a guy the other day who said it's either a Biden landslide or very close, there's little in between the two and the betting markets are siding with it being pretty close.

 

Yes. I suppose it's a reasonable stance to think, for example:

- Biden's ahead in the polls (assuming they're accurate) but Trump's going to come back because his "law and order" agenda will win over waverers or mobilise his base, or because you're convinced that the Biden vote may have lower turnout (due to lack of motivation, practical difficulties or active suppression) or because you believe that Trump will win the TV debates against Biden.....just to take a few examples. 

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