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The Politics Thread 2020

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26 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

In the aftermath of the 2019 election a friend of mine, who went down the socialism/Corbyn rabbit hole years ago, posted this on Facebook. The comment below it genuinely irked me because it was so insane:

 

IMG_0889.thumb.jpeg.5ad71e63349c198905f3c030f9f48636.jpeg

 

So I replied asking if we could have neither communism or Nazism, aaaaand so they called me a “centrist cvnt” and blocked me. 

 

It's so weird how anyone who doesn't agree with exactly everything Jeremy Corbyn says or does is branded a "centrist" by these types, as if you can't be left-wing without thinking he's the fvcking Messiah too.

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8 minutes ago, Fightforever said:

The internet is based off getting clicks/likes/follows. The more extreme you go the more interest (good or bad) is shown into what you write which eventually translates into more money.

 

That's true - and money is doubtless the key motivation of most social media sites.

 

But I'm more interested in the motivation of the individuals expressing these polarised, sometimes hostile views - and they don't get money out of it.

I suppose your first sentence tallies with what I said - "clicks/likes/follows" boosting narcissistic egos and representing mob approval?

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16 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

I'm interested in the psychology of this.

It's called being a bell. And it's been around since the first dude twatted the second dude with a club. Just more easily seen and spread now, sadly. 

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9 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

 

It's so weird how anyone who doesn't agree with exactly everything Jeremy Corbyn says or does is branded a "centrist" by these types, as if you can't be left-wing without thinking he's the fvcking Messiah too.

He is a Bosnian genocide and Kosovar ethnic cleansing revisionist and has also turned a blind eye to antisemitism within his own party but me not treating him as a god figure means I'm center right. Honestly these Corbynites will alienate moderates and cause a Tory dynasty.

Edited by Fightforever
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4 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

 

It's so weird how anyone who doesn't agree with exactly everything Jeremy Corbyn says or does is branded a "centrist" by these types, as if you can't be left-wing without thinking he's the fvcking Messiah too.

 

Try pointing out that Corbyn has been a Eurosceptic for most of his life (documented fact) and that his deliberately half-hearted contribution to the Remain campaign contributed to Brexit (a very arguable case).

 

As most uncritical Corbynistas are also uncritical Remainers, I always find that goes down well. :whistle:

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3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

That's true - and money is doubtless the key motivation of most social media sites.

 

But I'm more interested in the motivation of the individuals expressing these polarised, sometimes hostile views - and they don't get money out of it.

I suppose your first sentence tallies with what I said - "clicks/likes/follows" boosting narcissistic egos and representing mob approval?

I think its also the problem of social media bubbles. For example on Twitter people tend to only follow people who speak of opinions they agree with meaning they never really see where the other side of the argument is coming from. As a result they spiral further and further down the rabbit hole.

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30 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Try pointing out that Corbyn has been a Eurosceptic for most of his life (documented fact) and that his deliberately half-hearted contribution to the Remain campaign contributed to Brexit (a very arguable case).

 

As most uncritical Corbynistas are also uncritical Remainers, I always find that goes down well. :whistle:

He seemingly disappeared off the face of the earth in the lead up to the referendum, which I found very disappointing as someone who voted remain and when you consider that the majority of his younger supporters are Pro-Europe. However, a significant factor in Labour's trouncing in 2019 was their stance on Brexit, which had changed from respecting the result of the first referendum to supporting a second referendum since the previous election in 2017. He was caught between a rock and a hard place, as a number of Labour strongholds in the north of England were also very much pro-Leave areas.

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12 minutes ago, BenTheFox said:

He seemingly disappeared off the face of the earth in the lead up to the referendum, which I found very disappointing as someone who voted remain and when you consider that the majority of his younger supporters are Pro-Europe. However, a significant factor in Labour's trouncing in 2019 was their stance on Brexit, which had changed from respecting the result of the first referendum to supporting a second referendum since the previous election in 2017. He was caught between a rock and a hard place, as a number of Labour strongholds in the north of England were also very much pro-Leave areas.

 

Yep. To be fair to him, he had a good manifesto and a good campaign in 2017 - including an extensive series of mass rallies that were well attended by young people and effective in gaining positive local media coverage.

As I recall, he had no such public rallies during the 2016 referendum, just a few "preaching to the converted" Remainer events. As Lab Remain campaign chief, Alan Johnson complained about his minimal contribution. I also remember a prominent TV journalist (Andrew Neil?) vocally complaining that Corbyn kept refusing offers to do interviews during the referendum campaign. The reasons seem obvious: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Corbyn#European_Union

 

Leaving the EEC/EU was the standard Hard Left position dating back to the 1970s - and party policy in 1983 (the era when Corbyn entered parliament). Some on the Hard Left became more pro-EU, especially after the Delors era of Social Europe from the late 1980s. Ken Livingstone became pro-EU and McDonnell, in the main, but some like Corbyn stuck to the old "socialism in one country" stance (outdated in a more globalised world, in my view). I find it revealing that most uncritical Corbynistas are also uncritical Remainers, yet don't see this as inconsistent - or even deny Corbyn's long history of Euroscepticism despite ample evidence.

 

I agree with your comments about the part Brexit played in Labour's 2019 defeat. For several years after voting Remain in 2016, I opposed a 2nd referendum. But towards the end, I switched and saw a 2nd referendum as a means of settling the apparently interminable parliamentary impasse. That ended badly, though, as Johnson was able to use the "get (Hard) Brexit done" policy to win the election. With hindsight, @Kopfkinohas a point when he says Labour should have supported May's Deal, though they were trying to get a better Soft Brexit outcome via parliamentary votes, negotiations with May's team etc. Anyway, this is the wrong thread for that sort of post-mortem, which is water under the bridge now, anyway.

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On 03/03/2021 at 00:07, Dunge said:

I’ve always found the “winning the argument” stuff an interesting description. Maybe he did and I missed it, but I was never convinced that he managed it. Granted his supporters out-argued people on social media, but I’ve always thought that was more defeating people rather than winning arguments. It might have felt good, but wasn’t actually gaining anything or winning an idea in any meaningful way. What I think he did in 2017 was blindside the Conservatives, with Theresa May convinced she was going to cruise to a massive victory. Essentially, she wanted the power to ignore one wing or other of her own party, which is a poor reason to vote for someone. Calling the election merely on that basis was arrogant, and the British public punished that arrogance as the Brits always like to do. (And damn right too.)


Yes tbf, it’s entirely possible he didn’t ‘win the argument’ but appeared to ‘win the argument’ because Brexit drove the Conservatives down a different path and 2017 was more a reflection May and her disastrous election campaign.

 

But I always saw Corbynism as mainly driven by economics even if the man himself was only bothered by cranky foreign policy, and the politics of the UK right now favour a lean towards Corbynomics, though as I said, it needs professionalising. The voters that Labour needs to win back (ex-Labour voters that moved straight to the Cons or went via UKIP) are pretty economically left but social values and Brexit has been their turn off from Labour. The social aspect very much drives the activists but wasn’t a huge part of outward-Corbynism. A leader without Corbyn’s baggage running the exact same platform would have won in 2017, I think it was more about the leader than the platform.

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1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:


Yes tbf, it’s entirely possible he didn’t ‘win the argument’ but appeared to ‘win the argument’ because Brexit drove the Conservatives down a different path and 2017 was more a reflection May and her disastrous election campaign.

 

But I always saw Corbynism as mainly driven by economics even if the man himself was only bothered by cranky foreign policy, and the politics of the UK right now favour a lean towards Corbynomics, though as I said, it needs professionalising. The voters that Labour needs to win back (ex-Labour voters that moved straight to the Cons or went via UKIP) are pretty economically left but social values and Brexit has been their turn off from Labour. The social aspect very much drives the activists but wasn’t a huge part of outward-Corbynism. A leader without Corbyn’s baggage running the exact same platform would have won in 2017, I think it was more about the leader than the platform.

Certainly I accept that Labour wouldn’t be “winning me back” as such, because I’ve never voted for them. I have voted Lib Dem in the past though, so I’m not completely wedded to one party. I think I’m centre-right economically and centrist socially, so any step toward left of centre economics tends to leave me cold. So maybe on that front Labour have a tough ask to win me over. Maybe also their best route is to offer greater equality across the country with centre-left economics but cut out the preachiness.

 

On that note, do you think the reaction to the current situation will define the acceptability of spending/investing/debt in the future? After all, we now have an enforced situation where billions upon billions have been borrowed and we now have a massive debt to deal with. If it’s dealt with well, will people be more open to it in the future? On the other hand if it causes massive problems will people prefer a return to caution and austerity?

 

Or will people not care either way? :-)

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50 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Certainly I accept that Labour wouldn’t be “winning me back” as such, because I’ve never voted for them. I have voted Lib Dem in the past though, so I’m not completely wedded to one party. I think I’m centre-right economically and centrist socially, so any step toward left of centre economics tends to leave me cold. So maybe on that front Labour have a tough ask to win me over. Maybe also their best route is to offer greater equality across the country with centre-left economics but cut out the preachiness.

 

On that note, do you think the reaction to the current situation will define the acceptability of spending/investing/debt in the future? After all, we now have an enforced situation where billions upon billions have been borrowed and we now have a massive debt to deal with. If it’s dealt with well, will people be more open to it in the future? On the other hand if it causes massive problems will people prefer a return to caution and austerity?

 

Or will people not care either way? :-)

The budget has basically trashed Osbourneomics with Sunak essentially admitting borrowing to fund capital spending is okay and things like the 'Laffer Curve' are essentially a pseudoscience. Even the IMF is admitting austerity was a crock of shit that led to a lost decade. Shame they didn't realise this when they subjecting the Greeks and global south to a permanent debtors prison.

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1 hour ago, Dunge said:

On that note, do you think the reaction to the current situation will define the acceptability of spending/investing/debt in the future? After all, we now have an enforced situation where billions upon billions have been borrowed and we now have a massive debt to deal with. If it’s dealt with well, will people be more open to it in the future? On the other hand if it causes massive problems will people prefer a return to caution and austerity?


The acceptability of it will probably be down to whatever narrative the Conservative Party wants to spin. Ever since Attlee, they’ve tended to be able to set the narrative on this sort of stuff and to seize that narrative away from them takes boldness and good strategy (I really think Corbyn Labour is underrated on this even if Brexit played as big a role in dragging Cons left) which Labour’s Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum don’t look capable of atm. That people just freely accept the necessity of this accumulation but Labour never managed to show the necessity of doing the same in 2008 is sort of a case in point. 
 

Budgets are usually bad news for those delivering yet Sunak, who can seemingly do anything and come up smelling of roses, has managed to deliver a not unpopular budget (back up to a 13 point lead in latest YouGov) despite raising taxes for pretty much anyone that pays income tax and offered nothing particularly imaginative or sought to answer any long-term questions. The message was almost back to ‘managed decline’ and there was nothing to address the fact the world will be different after September 2021 to what it was in September 2019 so maybe time will bring it crashing down. Sunak has set the narrative, people have accepted it and Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum have done nothing to alter that.

Edited by Kopfkino
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On the NHS pay rise thing (not sure whether to put this in the unpopular opinions thread):

 

1) NHS staff already got an inflation busting pay rise starting from 2018. https://fullfact.org/health/nhs-pay-whats-deal/

2) The 2018 deal, and this proposed 1%, is likely to be the best public sector increase this year. I work in Local Government, and my wage has been frozen. (Not complaining, just using as a comparison).

3) An awful lot of people have lost their jobs or been furloughed on 80% pay. Be grateful for a steady, guaranteed (sick pay) wage and a great pension.

4) Yes, A&E nurses etc have had a ****ing hard year, and I commend them for that. But:

a) Lots of nurses in non-emergency wards have had an easier than average year. I only know one nurse but the department she works in has had capacity reduced so much in the past year, she spends a lot of time cleaning or sitting around chatting. Not her fault, of course, but hardly deserving a huge pay rise. And, of course, we've all seen them dancing in the corridors. Hardly looks back-breaking for a lot of them.

b) It's literally your job. Sorry!

Edited by DennisNedry
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35 minutes ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Starmer really is hopeless. He's not up to it.

He's on a hiding to nothing at the moment. People have short memories and the vaccine roll-out is thankfully going really well at the moment.

 

His leadership hasn't been perfect by any means so far but no opposition party could really expect to make political capital out of a crisis like this while it's still ongoing. What will matter is whether, once it's actually over, people feel like they need something different and whether they begin to recall how badly the Tories actually fvcked up and how many lives were lost because of it.

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Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+4)

LAB: 32% (-4)

GRN: 7% (-)

LDEM: 6% (+1)

REFUK: 3% (-) via

, 03 - 04 Mar Chgs. w/ 26 Feb

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1367532944341016578

 

Not one for posting polls usually but that is absolutely catastrophic for Labour.  Conservatives 1.5 points up versus the 2019 GE.  Would mean a Conservative majority of 92 assuming current boundaries. 

 

Labour and Starmer deep under water.

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19 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

 

 

Clear proof of an SNP collapse and Labour resurgence in Scotland. :ph34r:

 

More seriously, as someone who doesn't want to see the UK break up, I'm cheered by little things like this and the first Scottish independence poll for ages without a pro-Indy majority.

 

12 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

He's on a hiding to nothing at the moment. People have short memories and the vaccine roll-out is thankfully going really well at the moment.

 

His leadership hasn't been perfect by any means so far but no opposition party could really expect to make political capital out of a crisis like this while it's still ongoing. What will matter is whether, once it's actually over, people feel like they need something different and whether they begin to recall how badly the Tories actually fvcked up and how many lives were lost because of it.

 

This. 

 

Plus the outcome of the next election will also depend significantly on how Tory post-Covid policies are viewed - especially those that affect voters' lives and finances.

 

That's all electorally positive for the Tories just now - continued (and sometimes increased) Covid financial support measures, no immediate tax rises etc.

But the IFS has questioned post-Covid spending plans: extra health burden from Covid & the big catch-up on postponed treatment for other health problems, yet no increase in health spending; big catch-up on lost education, yet no extra education spending; continued austerity cuts in other spending areas like local councils despite increased inequality, aging population needing social care etc.

 

Other Tory elements less keen on austerity & debt reduction may force Sunak to loosen the purse strings - but that could cause conflict within Tory ranks.

 

Plus a lot will depend on how the economy recovers post-Covid. I'm sure there'll be a short-term upturn in growth, but what will growth and employment look like in 2-3 years. Might be OK, but might not....though if things are bad economically, it's not inevitable that voters will blame the Govt for that.

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9 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+4)

LAB: 32% (-4)

GRN: 7% (-)

LDEM: 6% (+1)

REFUK: 3% (-) via

, 03 - 04 Mar Chgs. w/ 26 Feb

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1367532944341016578

 

Not one for posting polls usually but that is absolutely catastrophic for Labour.  Conservatives 1.5 points up versus the 2019 GE.  Would mean a Conservative majority of 92 assuming current boundaries. 

 

Labour and Starmer deep under water.

 

Look up a few posts. UpTheLeagueFox beat you to it in the Tory gloating stakes. :D

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1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

Look up a few posts. UpTheLeagueFox beat you to it in the Tory gloating stakes. :D

Not gloating...more concerned that the opposition is a mess which isn't good for democracy.

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There's no point hiding that image plays a big role in politics. Do you think that if Labour were to stick with the policies which made up their 2017 manifesto but had a more presentable (probably younger) and more charismatic leader with less baggage they'd be successful?

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8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Look up a few posts. UpTheLeagueFox beat you to it in the Tory gloating stakes. :D

Ahh apologies! 

 

Personally I don't really find it funny anymore.  It's actually embarrassing at this point.  Seems that the more the country sees and hears from Starmer, the less popular he becomes.

 

I also think the Conservatives are benefiting from a Sunak bounce as well.  

 

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