Jump to content

Recommended Posts

They have got to start facing facts, 9 people died from it yesterday, and probably 6 of them were added in from a few weeks back. Okay 3000 people a day are catching it and that’s been probably going on for quite a while but it’s the testing that’s putting those figures up. Let’s see in 10 days time if there are any changes in the death rate. 
 Another thing, How exactly do you suspend vaccine trials? What do the bods do, take the vaccine out of people or something. It doesn’t make sense. I personally think the virus has just about run its course and the government don’t know what to do about it. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, StanSP said:

With case numbers increasing/deaths not doing so in line with that, is it sensible to think the virus has mutated and isn't nowhere near as strong as it was about 6 months ago?

 

 

There's any one of a number of possible causes for it (including deaths just being a bit further behind the curve right now), that's is one of them.

 

I'm not sure enough is known and can be proven about this topic to take a gamble to the degree that some people are suggesting.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, StanSP said:

With case numbers increasing/deaths not doing so in line with that, is it sensible to think the virus has mutated and isn't nowhere near as strong as it was about 6 months ago?

 

 

Plenty of so called experts saying this. Problem is at the other end of the scale there’s still so called experts predicting chaos in a few months. Truth is they are all guessing and someone will be right but just as many will be miles out with their predictions. 

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

With case numbers increasing/deaths not doing so in line with that, is it sensible to think the virus has mutated and isn't nowhere near as strong as it was about 6 months ago?

 

 

 

Probably not.

 

Until now, the rise in case numbers has been predominantly among younger people, who are much less likely to be badly affected.

 

However, in the last few days there have been reports that the virus is starting to spread more widely and some older people are getting infected again - and cases have now been reported in a number of care homes.

In tandem with that, there's been a slight increase in hospitalisations - though nothing like the scale of what happened in the spring.

 

If infections continue to spread among people of all ages in coming weeks and there's little increase in hospitalisations, ICU cases or deaths, it might be sensible to wonder about mutation (though experts seem to discount this for now).

Unless and until that happens, it seems more sensible to be aware that there's a 2-3 time week time lag between infections and deaths and to assume the disparity is down to most being young (and perhaps to better-informed treatment).

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, StanSP said:

With case numbers increasing/deaths not doing so in line with that, is it sensible to think the virus has mutated and isn't nowhere near as strong as it was about 6 months ago?

 

 

All sorts of possibilities.
 

- Probably younger people getting infected and older, more vulnerable people making sure they keep well away.

 

- Hugely more testing making the number of cases look much larger than back in April.

 

- Much better treatments available, from cocktails of drugs to use of ventilators.

 

- Use of masks and other measures such as social distancing, etc probably mean that the initial viral load is much reduced.

 

The virologists I’ve heard addressing the possibility of mutation seem to dismiss the likelihood that it has become less virulent.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, StanSP said:

With case numbers increasing/deaths not doing so in line with that, is it sensible to think the virus has mutated and isn't nowhere near as strong as it was about 6 months ago?

 

 

There is only one known mutation of the virus - the 614D variant which was common in China at the start of the year has largely been replaced by the 614G variant.

 

We are fortunate that Covid-19 appears to be a slow mutating virus.  This increases the possibility of development of an effective vaccine.  Had the virus been a fast mutating variety, like the common cold, there would be very little chance of developing a vaccine as the coronavirus would have mutated before vaccine trials (which as you doubtless appreciate take many months) would have concluded.

Edited by Crinklyfox
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StanSP said:

With case numbers increasing/deaths not doing so in line with that, is it sensible to think the virus has mutated and isn't nowhere near as strong as it was about 6 months ago?

 

 

 

51 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

All sorts of possibilities.
 

- Probably younger people getting infected and older, more vulnerable people making sure they keep well away.

 

- Hugely more testing making the number of cases look much larger than back in April.

 

- Much better treatments available, from cocktails of drugs to use of ventilators.

 

- Use of masks and other measures such as social distancing, etc probably mean that the initial viral load is much reduced.

 

The virologists I’ve heard addressing the possibility of mutation seem to dismiss the likelihood that it has become less virulent.

There are some recent studies article which are beginning to muse this theory .......... it could possibly be the answer whilst we don’t have a vaccine and allow more responsible social interaction than the new restrictions coming in do. if science can actually show viral load is reduced to allow cases to be less severe then presumably those who are unconvinced about face coverings may become more involved. The extreme wing will never come over to the ‘dark side’.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Crinklyfox said:

There is only one known mutation of the virus - the 614D variant which was common in China at the start of the year has largely been replaced by the 614G variant.

 

We are fortunate that Covid-19 appears to be a slow mutating virus.  This increases the possibility of development of an effective vaccine.  Had the virus been a fast mutating variety, like the common cold, there would be very little chance of developing a vaccine as the coronavirus would have mutated before vaccine trials (which as you doubtless appreciate take many months) would have concluded.

Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation -- the S strain -- appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

 

That's from August, so could be more. I've seen some genetic sequencing maps, but LeicsMac would probably be able to baffle tell us about those.

 

From my own observation and training (dot to dot colouring books) I don't think there are much differences, certainly not in relation to virulence. 

Edited by simFox
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

They have got to start facing facts, 9 people died from it yesterday, and probably 6 of them were added in from a few weeks back. Okay 3000 people a day are catching it and that’s been probably going on for quite a while but it’s the testing that’s putting those figures up. Let’s see in 10 days time if there are any changes in the death rate. 
 Another thing, How exactly do you suspend vaccine trials? What do the bods do, take the vaccine out of people or something. It doesn’t make sense. I personally think the virus has just about run its course and the government don’t know what to do about it. 

Well we keep hearing about being 2 weeks behind Spain and they recorded just approximately 240 deaths last week, roughly 34 a day, very sad but nowhere near the numbers earlier in the year.

I’m fed up with the media and it’s relentless pursuit of a second wave, I desperately hope we don’t have one and that deaths remain low.
The government I’m sure will pat themselves on the back, say bravo and that their policies have worked.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Worth mentioning, theres 75 minutes to go until the new ‘Rule of Six’. 
 

And the legislation hasn’t even been published yet 

This is endemic of the government over the last six months. Information and guidance being released at the last minute makes the public services look disorganised - it allows for the blame to be placed at their door in the event of a cock up. Not at Whitehall. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, simFox said:

Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation -- the S strain -- appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

 

That's from August, so could be more. I've seen some genetic sequencing maps, but LeicsMac would probably be able to baffle tell us about those.

 

From my own observation and training (dot to dot colouring books) I don't think there are much differences, certainly not in relation to virulence. 

Thanks for the link to the paper, I'd missed that one.  My comments on the variants came from slightly earlier papers which only referenced the two strains.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200702144054.htm

 

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30817-5.pdf

Link to post
Share on other sites

Excerpt from article by Dr. Phil Whitaker (a GP) about Long Covid and the risk to "low risk" people (yes, it's from the NS, Kopf, but it's not Stephen Bush!)

 

"If the neglect of care homes was the scandal of the first wave, the second wave scandal may prove to be the concept of “low-risk” people. We now possess a much deeper understanding of Covid-19 as a disease. In the first wave, it was thought to be a respiratory infection from which most patients recovered fairly swiftly, while a small minority would succumb or require intensive care to pull through. We now know that for anywhere between 5 and 10 per cent of patients, Covid-19 becomes a chronic disease, relapsing and remitting for months on end. There are ongoing respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms, and profound fatigue, heart rhythm disturbances, life-threatening blood clot formation, and debilitating abnormalities of the nervous system. While some “long Covid” patients do recover, many have not as yet. Most are frightened about the future, and enervated by being a “medical mystery” for whom no one can give definitive explanations, advice or prognosis.

 

The demographics of “long Covid” are very different from those for hospitalisation and mortality; if anything, younger people appear disproportionately affected. And instances of relapsing-remitting disease are independent of severity – the majority of sufferers were never unwell enough to be admitted to hospital at any stage. Research into this variant is in its infancy – trying to define how many people develop it, to understand what factors make the illness chronic, and to discover effective treatments. Nonetheless, long Covid is now an accepted phenomenon. The puzzle is why government pronouncements and statistics continue to suggest that death rates are the only meaningful outcome".

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

It’ll be madness to have another total lockdown, so with taking that into account when is it going to be? 🤔

My own useless uninformed opinion is no matter what there will not be another lockdown. The financial aspect is more important than the loss of lives to the government.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

No chance there'll be another nationwide lockdown unless hospitals are genuinely in danger of over spilling. It'd be economic suicide and the impact on the country and it's residents would be even more devastating than we're probably going to see in the next few months. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

According to the theory that the death rate lags behind the new cases by about two weeks, deaths *should* start to creep up this week. I can't see it happening personally and it'll be very hard to justify further restrictions if deaths are still hovering around the 10 a day mark in a weeks time. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

According to the theory that the death rate lags behind the new cases by about two weeks, deaths *should* start to creep up this week. I can't see it happening personally and it'll be very hard to justify further restrictions if deaths are still hovering around the 10 a day mark in a weeks time. 

What were the deaths per day in spain 2 weeks ago.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

What were the deaths per day in spain 2 weeks ago.

58 on the 1st Sept, 48 was the most recent data point on the tracker which was the 11th I think. Might be wrong as I'm looking at the line on my phone. 

 

Didn't realise how many new cases they're having though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 13/09/2020 at 21:46, simFox said:

Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation -- the S strain -- appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

 

That's from August, so could be more. I've seen some genetic sequencing maps, but LeicsMac would probably be able to baffle tell us about those.

 

From my own observation and training (dot to dot colouring books) I don't think there are much differences, certainly not in relation to virulence. 

I can certainly try! :D

 

The paper involving those genetic sequencing methods appears to be this one: "Geographic and Genomic Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Mutations". https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01800/full

 

From what it seems the labs divided up the original nucleotides (individual pieces of DNA) and then classified them according to the region of the world from which the sample was taken. This told us quite a few things, but above all it proved that there actually isn't as much genetic variance in the virus by region as might be expected - the same four/eight nucleotides are prevalent everywhere - and that it mutates rather more slowly (it would seem) than other viruses, too.

 

If anyone has any more specific questions about the sequencing process itself and how we get information from it, I'd be happy to answer.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 13/09/2020 at 11:44, WigstonWanderer said:

All sorts of possibilities.
 

- Probably younger people getting infected and older, more vulnerable people making sure they keep well away.

Flawed logic. Young people still directly and indirectly come in to contact with the vulnerable and elderly. Isn't that presicely why young people were being told to be careful?

 

Quote

- Hugely more testing making the number of cases look much larger than back in April.

Likely plays a part but only adds to panic.

 

Quote

 

- Much better treatments available, from cocktails of drugs to use of ventilators.

Also a factor.

 

Quote

 

- Use of masks and other measures such as social distancing, etc probably mean that the initial viral load is much reduced.

 

The virologists I’ve heard addressing the possibility of mutation seem to dismiss the likelihood that it has become less virulent.

Bottom line is we continue to damage the fabric of society because Karen from Bedford says it's outrageous we should put our families at risk, while chugging on a fag as she passes through McDonald's drive thru on her family day trip to the precinct.

Edited by Nod.E
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...