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25 minutes ago, tom27111 said:

 

You are aware that everyone has bills to pay? Put food in their mouths? Keep a roof over their heads?

 

If this was a virus that exclusively killed under 30's, we'd be getting comments like "the boomers can't keep to lockdown"

 

But no, people were asked to stick to guidelines and advice, but a lot haven't, then get upset when there could be a second lockdown.

 

It's not rocket science.

Once again not everyone has rent to pay or a mortgage, you must be aware of that? That’s not “rocket science” Plenty of people own their own house and have not got the worry of not being able to pay the rent or mortgage.

 

Dont pick on someone who wants to go to work to pay their bills and rent.

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1 minute ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Once again not everyone has rent to pay or a mortgage, you must be aware of that? That’s not “rocket science” Plenty of people own their own house and have not got the worry of not being able to pay the rent or mortgage.

 

Dont pick on someone who wants to go to work to pay their bills and rent.

 

Yeah, OK.

 

I can see why you picked your username. 

 

Clueless.

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2 minutes ago, tom27111 said:

 

Yeah, OK.

 

I can see why you picked your username. 

 

Clueless.

 Please explain why I’m clueless? I’m intrigued..... what have I said that’s incorrect?

As for usernames it must of took you a very very long time to think of yours 😊

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29 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Probably through some bloke who went out to eat to help the economy out like Boris asked him to. Who knows.

 

You can follow all the rules in the world and you can still catch this virus.

You certainly can but those not following the rules, of which there are many of all ages, are not helping. Everyone needs to be just a little bit more considerate and we could control this more easily.

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10 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Indeed, it's the CEBM, however, none of it confirming or supporting the following:

 

Actually worldwide overwhelming evidence suggests that lockdowns help contain coronavirus outbreaks and prevent additional deaths. Data shows that where lockdown measures have been observed to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic, that the spread of the virus can be significantly reduced and suppressed by this preventive restriction. However, that alone will not actually stop the virus, China had to undertake rapid testing of any suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for 14 days so that they could then figure out if any were infected. Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China, as opposed to simply major travel restrictions and lockdowns. 

 

Nonetheless, in Wuhan, China, it has been found that the city's lockdown on January 23 prevented tens of thousands of infections throughout the Hubei province. Without the lockdown, cases in Hubei would have been 65% higher. International researchers also recently determined that overall social distancing in China reduced the number of daily interactions by at least sevenfold, thereby lowering transmission. I'll try to find the study.

 

In America, there's no consistent definition of a lockdown across all 50 states. Some states allowed restaurants to stay open, while others issued only partial stay-at-home orders. New York is also an outlier, since it represents more than a third of the nation's coronavirus deaths, far more than any other individual state. That means it can skew the results. And actually, is the universal concept of 'lockdown' even meaningful? Areas with higher density may require stricter lockdowns than most since they create more opportunities for people to interact. Places with a higher proportion of elderly residents who are especially vulnerable to the virus might also benefit from more stringent shutdowns, too. Optimal lockdown policy appears to involve a severe lockdown two weeks after an outbreak is detected, which is then gradually withdrawn after three months - although as winter approaches even this observation may not be valid.

 

This is an incredibly complex set of variables that we are confronted with. The populist notion that 'the poeple are getting wise to it' is complete horseshit and that is precisely the foolhardy rhetoric and misconception that causes guidelines and restrictions to be flagrantly flouted, will inflict further damage to the economy long term and ultimately costs lives.


 

Yet Peru with the harshest of all lockdowns has had one of the worst deathrates.

 

The only thing a lockdown does is delay the inevitable.

 

People in Brazil are getting through it with next to no restrictions whatsoever, it's them that will be back to normal soonest while the rest of us are still locking-down and self destructing in multiple ways.

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43 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Earlier this year, we were told that Italy was suffering badly, due to its high proportion of older people and because of extended families living together. However, fast forward six months, and Italy is showing few signs of a second wave, whilst in Spain, France and the UK, cases are rocketing back up. What's Italy doing right that the other three are doing wrong?  

Interesting question

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Just now, simFox said:

Yet Peru with the harshest of all lockdowns has had one of the worst deathrates.

 

The only thing a lockdown does is delay the inevitable.

 

People in Brazil are getting through it with next to no restrictions whatsoever, it's them that will be back to normal soonest while the rest of us are still locking-down and self destructing in multiple ways.

As I explained this picture is not a simple one. There are a huge amount of variables involved. One of the reasons that Peru was his so hard was in spite of the lockdown was a woefully underprepared and under sourced healthcare system exacerbated by poor standards of living, higher levels of income vulnerability a weak social contract, causing many to flout government restrictions and poor social infrastructure to protect the vulnerable. 

 

What on earth are you talking about???? Up to now, Brazil has had 4.4 million covid cases and 135,000 deaths - only the USA has reported higher figures - and they are likely to actually be much. much higher due to insufficient testing/reporting. 

 

This forum utterly astonishes me. Is this really a microcosm of public awareness? 

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55 minutes ago, String fellow said:

Earlier this year, we were told that Italy was suffering badly, due to its high proportion of older people and because of extended families living together. However, fast forward six months, and Italy is showing few signs of a second wave, whilst in Spain, France and the UK, cases are rocketing back up. What's Italy doing right that the other three are doing wrong?  

Excellent point. 

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56 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Where are all these mass gatherings happening? 

That’s what I want to know. I don’t disagree that there have been some, I just think the shutting down of house parties get reported in the media and the government have the scapegoat they need.

 

I really don’t think people’s behaviour is much different now than it was mid to late June, particularly where I live which has been out of lockdown since National restrictions were lifted and is mega busy most days.

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The problem with the CEBM is that it’s evidence based, which 99.9% of the time is great as it’s based on stuff which has already happened. However this is the 0.1% occasion where we don’t know what will happen as it’s a new disease in a season which we haven’t seen before. 

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Conveniently, this video popped up the moment after I watched Whitty's press conference this morning:

 

 

The same Professor has released a paper today using Whitty's press conference and unpicking the data.

 

 

In a press briefing today Professors Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance showed epidemic curves for Spain and France, showing how cases numbers have been growing rapidly, possibly exponentially starting in August. 

As is often done when using case numbers by publishing date, the raw numbers are smoothed with a seven-day moving average. Drawn this way, the data shows a continued upward trend. 

Drawing the epidemic curve for Spain using cases by symptom onset produces a different result.

 

The graph for the UK using system onset produces this:

 

image.png.e0060ec5c68ee6d462438ae335ac3e16.png

 

Second wave?  Perhaps not.  In the video the guy recommends extending the Xmas break period to allow for a break in seasonal transmission as doing so now would be ineffective longer term over the winter season.  That's a fair point.  

 

Boris needs to tread carefully because his rhetoric at the moment looks decidedly dodgy imo.

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1 hour ago, RowlattsFox said:

Where are all these mass gatherings happening? 

BLM protests, Liverpool fans celebrating winning the league, Leeds fans celebrating promotion, VE Day parties, Bournemouth beach gatherings. 
 

Incidentally did we see a sudden surge in cases from all of the above like we were told would happen? 

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4 minutes ago, StanSP said:

What will pubs shutting at 10pm actually do?

 

Won't it just mean bigger gatherings before that time?

I guess its aim is to stop students and other young people who tend to go out at that time, I remember those days :sleep: I don't know where they're going though. I am sure they'llll all justt agree and follow the instruction..

 

A day session watching the football finishing in time for 10pm sounds ok to me. 

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44 minutes ago, simFox said:

Yet Peru with the harshest of all lockdowns has had one of the worst deathrates.

 

The only thing a lockdown does is delay the inevitable.

 

People in Brazil are getting through it with next to no restrictions whatsoever, it's them that will be back to normal soonest while the rest of us are still locking-down and self destructing in multiple ways.

What? No, it stopped thousands of deaths and other unneeded deaths from over clogging the NHS. 

 

Brazil and Peru I assume has the same level of testing and quality of predictions as the UK? You can't just throw out any comparison between nations with hugely different variables. 

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2 hours ago, Fightforever said:

This is getting boring now why can't we just behave?

We can, the vast majority have otherwise hospitalisations and deaths would be off the scale.

 

Most people out of 60 million have been brilliant.

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8 minutes ago, Steve_Walsh5 said:

BLM protests, Liverpool fans celebrating winning the league, Leeds fans celebrating promotion, VE Day parties, Bournemouth beach gatherings. 
 

Incidentally did we see a sudden surge in cases from all of the above like we were told would happen? 

No. We’ve seen increases since schools and universities re-opened and I’ll bet that we see a reduction 2-3 weeks after the half term break, coincidently at about the same time we will start to see a reduction because of the new measures that will come into place, well done, a big pat on the back. The government don’t want pubs open because they don’t get invited, apart from Nigel farage, and they want us all to be missable gits.

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5 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

No. We’ve seen increases since schools and universities re-opened and I’ll bet that we see a reduction 2-3 weeks after the half term break, coincidently at about the same time we will start to see a reduction because of the new measures that will come into place, well done, a big pat on the back. The government don’t want pubs open because they don’t get invited, apart from Nigel farage, and they want us all to be missable gits.

But the cases were going up before the schools reopened. There was talk of lockdown and increased restrictions before the schools reopened.

 

So the schools opened and within a couple of days, loads of kids had caught the virus, incubated it and managed to get a positive test.

6443FF8A-A74C-4219-AD7E-82B7BA44FBA9.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, Trumpet said:

But the cases were going up before the schools reopened. There was talk of lockdown and increased restrictions before the schools reopened.

 

So the schools opened and within a couple of days, loads of kids had caught the virus, incubated it and managed to get a positive test.

6443FF8A-A74C-4219-AD7E-82B7BA44FBA9.jpeg

Schools opened at the end of August here.

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4 minutes ago, Trumpet said:

But the cases were going up before the schools reopened. There was talk of lockdown and increased restrictions before the schools reopened.

 

So the schools opened and within a couple of days, loads of kids had caught the virus, incubated it and managed to get a positive test.

6443FF8A-A74C-4219-AD7E-82B7BA44FBA9.jpeg

They went up because everyone was being encouraged to eat out surely? Plus pubs had reopened not long before.

 

With schools and unis being back open, those cases will jump up now (as they already have tbf), you've got 20+ in the same room.

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