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58 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Message seemed quite clear to me.

I see breaches of social distancing and other regulations all day, everyday. We need to learn to live with this virus until there’s a vaccine and we can’t just shut everything down. The message is to obey the rule of 6 and social distancing. 

it’s too easy to make jokes about schools being open or Cummings not being fined but ultimately there’s a balance between allowing education and the economy to rebuild but also using common sense and not being a turnip.

Unfortunately, people are going to carry on being turnips so I can either see us going back to April style regs, or COVID taking over.

Common sense posts like this should rightly be applauded :appl:

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43 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Message seemed quite clear to me.

 

I see breaches of social distancing and other regulations all day, everyday. We need to learn to live with this virus until there’s a vaccine and we can’t just shut everything down. The message is to obey the rule of 6 and social distancing. 
 

it’s too easy to make jokes about schools being open or Cummings not being fined but ultimately there’s a balance between allowing education and the economy to rebuild but also using common sense and not being a turnip.

 

Unfortunately, people are going to carry on being turnips so I can either see us going back to April style regs, or COVID taking over.

Full lockdown incoming. Too many people saying 'f-it, I'll do as I please', whilst also being the most vocal about how we can't afford another lockdown. Whether you agree with the necessity of controlling the virus or not, it's quite clear the govt have decided they're going to keep imposing measures until we halt the growing spread of the virus. We should all be playing the game to avoid the full lockdown, but too many individuals and companies/ organisations won't care.

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2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Why does it matter? If your curve is going upwards at a reasonable pace then, unless you're testing huge amounts more everyday or the test just gets magically less reliable everyday, it's because there's more actual cases. If cases double every week, then even if half your positives are false you only have an extra week to respond.  So what is the relevance of false positives?

Clutching at straws to personally justify not helping out.

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1 hour ago, simFox said:

Eh? It's an economy and livelihoods of an entire population. If someone's going to make predictions that affect every aspect of our lives then they better be pretty sure about them and be put under intense scrutiny.  

 

Fergusons model has been proven to be so far out, Boris would have been better off asking Vardy.

What's the proof that Fergusons model is so far out? 

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2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Why does it matter? If your curve is going upwards at a reasonable pace then, unless you're testing huge amounts more everyday or the test just gets magically less reliable everyday, it's because there's more actual cases. If cases double every week, then even if half your positives are false you only have an extra week to respond.  So what is the relevance of false positives?

Cases will be nowhere near as high as the stats show if false positives are a decent sized number. For example at the start of September we conducted 158k tests, but on September 18th we conducted 233k tests. Those extra 75k tests could account for 600 cases, not a massive number granted but it certainly makes a difference. If the rate is 0.8% and we conducted 233k tests, over 1800 positive tests would be false.

 

Additionally you'll have people isolating with their families, costing them money if they get a false positive.

 

I was just wondering if anyone has raised it as I've only seen it mentioned on LBC but nothing has really been said by Boris or MPs about it.

 

1 minute ago, Fktf said:

Clutching at straws to personally justify not helping out.

Just gonna point out I've had about 14 days off since March, so the majority of the population can get to work on time, medical supplies can be delivered, food supplies can be delivered and people can lead a normal life. I've also deferred nearly all of my annual leave until next year to help out. My only freedom at the minute is going to the pub every 4 or so weeks.

 

So in summary:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14523970

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2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Cases will be nowhere near as high as the stats show if false positives are a decent sized number. For example at the start of September we conducted 158k tests, but on September 18th we conducted 233k tests. Those extra 75k tests could account for 600 cases, not a massive number granted but it certainly makes a difference. If the rate is 0.8% and we conducted 233k tests, over 1800 positive tests would be false.

 

Additionally you'll have people isolating with their families, costing them money if they get a false positive.

 

I was just wondering if anyone has raised it as I've only seen it mentioned on LBC but nothing has really been said by Boris or MPs about it.

 

Just gonna point out I've had about 14 days off since March, so the majority of the population can get to work on time, medical supplies can be delivered, food supplies can be delivered and people can lead a normal life. I've also deferred nearly all of my annual leave until next year to help out. My only freedom at the minute is going to the pub every 4 or so weeks.

 

So in summary:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14523970

I owe you an apology. I should have read the posts before the one I quoted, as clearly my comment looked very pointedly directed at you. I didn't intend that.

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Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

No worries mate, apologies for the GIF. We all get a little heated sometimes.

 

:thumbup:

Perfectly justified in your case, given what my comment looked like it was implying. No offence taken on my part mate 

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12 minutes ago, martyn said:

What's the proof that Fergusons model is so far out? 

There were some criticisms of the code behind the model

 

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

 

But they seem to fall on how pretty the code is, rather than the accuracy of the predictions 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01685-y#:~:text=The successful code testing isn,by mathematical epidemiologist Neil Ferguson.&text=When a cleaned-up version,to be repeated by others.

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11 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Cases will be nowhere near as high as the stats show if false positives are a decent sized number. For example at the start of September we conducted 158k tests, but on September 18th we conducted 233k tests. Those extra 75k tests could account for 600 cases, not a massive number granted but it certainly makes a difference. If the rate is 0.8% and we conducted 233k tests, over 1800 positive tests would be false.

 

Additionally you'll have people isolating with their families, costing them money if they get a false positive.

 

I was just wondering if anyone has raised it as I've only seen it mentioned on LBC but nothing has really been said by Boris or MPs about it.

 

 

 

No, they'll be higher. We're still not in a position where testing is revealing every single case, the ONS's random sample study (which of course will have an element of false positives itself) put daily infections at about 6000 between 04/09 and 10/09, or about double what testing was showing. Thinking about numbers of false positives is a bit daft given actual cases are almost certainly significantly higher than known cases identified through the testing system. The ONS's study remains near enough constant in its sample size and yet showed close to a doubling from the previous week, that can't be attributed to FPR. False positives are just a smokescreen for people in denial trying to sound clever, it can't explain away the direction of travel and there's plenty of other data points which hint towards that direction of travel anyway.

 

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1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Cases will be nowhere near as high as the stats show if false positives are a decent sized number. For example at the start of September we conducted 158k tests, but on September 18th we conducted 233k tests. Those extra 75k tests could account for 600 cases, not a massive number granted but it certainly makes a difference. If the rate is 0.8% and we conducted 233k tests, over 1800 positive tests would be false.

 

Additionally you'll have people isolating with their families, costing them money if they get a false positive.

 

I was just wondering if anyone has raised it as I've only seen it mentioned on LBC but nothing has really been said by Boris or MPs about it.

 

Just gonna point out I've had about 14 days off since March, so the majority of the population can get to work on time, medical supplies can be delivered, food supplies can be delivered and people can lead a normal life. I've also deferred nearly all of my annual leave until next year to help out. My only freedom at the minute is going to the pub every 4 or so weeks.

 

So in summary:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14523970

In Melbourne they’re doing around 10k to 15k tests per day and have consistently been showing below 50 positives per day, most recently as low as 11. If there were .8% false positives, the signal would be swamped by noise of typically over 100 per day. Sydney stats are even more pronounced. Either:

 

- There isn’t that high a proportion of false positives generally with PCR tests as being suggested.

- The tests in Australia are different to those in the UK, or administered better.

- They have some way to correct the issue when numbers are low, perhaps by a retest.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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8 hours ago, simFox said:

Eh? It's an economy and livelihoods of an entire population. If someone's going to make predictions that affect every aspect of our lives then they better be pretty sure about them and be put under intense scrutiny.  

 

Fergusons model has been proven to be so far out, Boris would have been better off asking Vardy.

Here's Ferguson's model so that people can make their own mind up about it 

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf

 

It seems to predict a peak in April followed by a second peak beginning in September followed up by recurring peaks/lockdowns. 

 

In an unmitigated pandemic, 500k would die. So we brought in social distancing to avoid that. 

 

Looks like it was pretty accurate to me.

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7 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Why does it matter? If your curve is going upwards at a reasonable pace then, unless you're testing huge amounts more everyday or the test just gets magically less reliable everyday, it's because there's more actual cases. If cases double every week, then even if half your positives are false you only have an extra week to respond.  So what is the relevance of false positives?

One of the issues that has been highlighted with the current test is that it is also picking up minute fragments of ‘dead’ virus, therefore giving a positive test for someone who may have had the virus weeks ago, but is not currently infected or infective.

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1 hour ago, Lionator said:

Here's Ferguson's model so that people can make their own mind up about it 

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf

 

It seems to predict a peak in April followed by a second peak beginning in September followed up by recurring peaks/lockdowns. 

 

In an unmitigated pandemic, 500k would die. So we brought in social distancing to avoid that. 

 

Looks like it was pretty accurate to me.

it was a load of bollocks.

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I live in a narrow road near a school. The authorities have placed prominent signs at the entrance stating that parking is for residents and business only due to Covid restrictions. 

 

Why can't school run parents follow simple instructions to protect us all? Just had a confrontation with one outside. :mad:

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3 minutes ago, Spudulike said:

I live in a narrow road near a school. The authorities have placed prominent signs at the entrance stating that parking is for residents and business only due to Covid restrictions. 

 

Why can't school run parents follow simple instructions to protect us all? Just had a confrontation with one outside. :mad:

I live 10 metres from a primary school, the daily battle to park as close as possible to the school is still going on. Is is that f****** difficult to actually park away from the school and walk them in / out? Or just walk to the school, considering 90% of them won't live more than a 10 minute walk away. 

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Shock. :rolleyes:

 

 

I do understand why to some extent we're just dealing with arbitrary and occasionally contradictory restrictions, given doing something to stop the spread is evidently more likely to save lives than doing nothing. But it's not good enough for the Prime Minister to claim this is evidence-based when it isn't. Then again perhaps he wouldn't feel so inclined to lie about the justification for these measures if he hadn't lost the moral authority to govern this crisis earlier on...

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10 hours ago, Otis said:

Sweden would beg to differ.

 

10 hours ago, UniFox21 said:

Sweden is very different to the UK. People keep socially distant and respectful of space more than us. 

 Deaths is Sweden are far higher than in other Nordic countries. 

 

Also, as UniFox21 says, they are a totally different bunch of people. If you've ever travelled around the Nordic countries you'd see it's a totally different way of life there. They get more freedoms than we do here, but they stick to the rules (mostly) and don't take the piss. 

 

A simple example, go to Copenhagen and watch how people deal with traffic lights, road crossings and cycling. We're amber gamblers, they don't flinch unless the green man / light shows. 

 

You give people in this country an inch and they take a bloody mile. That's exactly why the rules are so rough, they have to be extra strict as so many want to push the boundaries constantly. 

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2 minutes ago, Babylon said:

I live 10 metres from a primary school, the daily battle to park as close as possible to the school is still going on. Is is that f****** difficult to actually park away from the school and walk them in / out? Or just walk to the school, considering 90% of them won't live more than a 10 minute walk away. 

I feel your pain. I'm in a constant battle with these idiots and can't take my car out during school run times as they gridlock the road. The school authorities constantly send out reminders to parents pointing out that our road is out of bounds for parking but it seems that most either don't think it applies to them or just don't care. They are arriving earlier and earlier to get the best spaces. Why they have to park so close is a mystery. 

 

I will never buy a house near a school again. 

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5 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Came home early from work one day and found someone parked in my drive. They said "I always park here". lol

I’ve had a few of them. I found that when they returned to the car having left it to walk up to the school and found it in the centre of the carriageway blocking traffic due to a handbrake failure they decided not to park on my drive. Also some cars were blocked in to my drive by my car and they had to call the police on me whilst they stood there with crying kids unable to get home (I’d already warned them that I was an essential worker on call the previous day but their needs were apparently greater than mine).
Also I’ve heard writing the words ‘private property’ in Nitromors paint stripper on a car bonnet is also a useful deterrent but that can lead to an all out punch up on the pavement in front of kids which isn’t a good look. “Why is daddy asleep on the pavement?” Isn’t a question you want to be answering...

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9 minutes ago, Nick said:

I’ve had a few of them. I found that when they returned to the car having left it to walk up to the school and found it in the centre of the carriageway blocking traffic due to a handbrake failure they decided not to park on my drive. Also some cars were blocked in to my drive by my car and they had to call the police on me whilst they stood there with crying kids unable to get home (I’d already warned them that I was an essential worker on call the previous day but their needs were apparently greater than mine).
Also I’ve heard writing the words ‘private property’ in Nitromors paint stripper on a car bonnet is also a useful deterrent but that can lead to an all out punch up on the pavement in front of kids which isn’t a good look. “Why is daddy asleep on the pavement?” Isn’t a question you want to be answering...

What did the police do about it? Was the parent fined for trespass? 

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1 minute ago, Spudulike said:

What did the police do about it? Was the parent fined for trespass? 

Nope it’s apparently not illegal to park on somebody’s drive however would have been illegal for me to keep my car there preventing them from leaving! 
 

They were actually fine though. They publicly said one thing and privately to me said they didn’t blame me at all!

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