Coronavirus Thread

[Rain King 1,429]

45 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I wouldn’t worry - you’ll either get another one shortly to say dont worry about it or you won’t get anything. Unless it tells you that you need to isolate then I guess you don’t ........it could also just be the same glitch that millions have had 

 

the app doesn’t keep track of where contacts were made , just that they were made and how long for  ..........

 

 

Got a message shortly after saying no risk so no need to do anything. However, my Mrs doesn't trust it and  has cancelled our weekend plans and wants us to isolate. She's ****ing mental. She can isolate on her own.

[fuchsntf 5,335]

42 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Got a message shortly after saying no risk so no need to do anything. However, my Mrs doesn't trust it and  has cancelled our weekend plans and wants us to isolate. She's ****ing mental. She can isolate on her own.

In Sickness & health,in Good times & bad......

[dsr-burnley 280]

3 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

My 81 year old grandmother told my parents today that she's coming over for Christmas come what may. She seems to have reached the point where it's worth risking her health (and life, even) rather than living miserably in social isolation. I'm sure there must be plenty of other elderly/vulnerable people who feel this way.

 

On a different and more positive note, I feel that we are seeing closer to the 'true' death rate now. Looking at the last 7 days in the UK there have been a total of 141,741 cases and 1,142 deaths. This gives a 0.81% death rate, which I still think if anything is still slightly higher than the reality.

I think your grandmother has probably realised that she is risking her life simply by being 81 years old.  When you're 20, giving up everything you enjoy doing for a year is not a high proportion of the rest of your life.  When you're 81, it is; especially as quality of life tends to deteriorate quite fast at that age.  When you're old, the best year (health and mobility-wise) of the rest of your life is usually the current year.

 

As for deaths-to-cases ratio, it's still important to remember that confirmed cases and actual cases are very different numbers.  Look at these football clubs like Orient where they didn't know they'd got it until someone paid for tests and found 17 had it.  There are still plenty of undetected and unsuspected tests.

[dsr-burnley 280]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

Deaths are a lag from cases though - the 1142 deaths should be analysed against the number of cases two - three weeks ago. 
 

How many covid deaths were there in September?   600 ?  - It will be hugely more for October and even more November - i asked the question before deaths increased - how many daily deaths are acceptable to keep the country ‘open’?  however, yet again, it needs stressing that we are trying to stop the NHS being overwhelmed more than we are trying to stop people dying from covid - the latter is unavoidable .......

1,500 to 2,000 daily deaths is the norm for winter.  That has been deemed to be acceptable in the past.  

 

But assuming you're asking specifically about covid deaths, that's a tricky question.  If you accept the conclusions of this survey that says "austerity" cost 130,000 lives, and we assume that the current economic crisis has the same sort of effect, then you will accept tens of thousands more covid deaths in exchange for keeping thje economy open.

 

And then of course you have to factor in future costs.  If unemployment rises by 2 million and retirement age goes up to 70, then obviously that's only money - can it be weighed against people's lives?  Well, yes,  That's what governments do.  If saving lives was all that government was about, driving would be banned and road deaths abolished.  Governments also have to think about general health, and yes, prosperity.  Rich countries have longer life expectancy than poor countries.

 

They need to do a lot more research about what would have happened.  In Brazil they had no lockdown at all and excess deaths April-June well below ours; in Peru they had the strictest lockdown of all and the highest death rate, albeit delayed until July.  How do we know what would have happened if we had done it differently? 

 

Here's an answer to your question - the "acceptable" number of deaths to keep the economy open is at least as high as the number of deaths that will happen if we keep locked down.  All they need do is provide the answer to hiw many will happen in lockdown, and we have a starting point for the answer.

[Sampson 2,889]

39 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

1,500 to 2,000 daily deaths is the norm for winter.  That has been deemed to be acceptable in the past.  

 

But assuming you're asking specifically about covid deaths, that's a tricky question.  If you accept the conclusions of this survey that says "austerity" cost 130,000 lives, and we assume that the current economic crisis has the same sort of effect, then you will accept tens of thousands more covid deaths in exchange for keeping thje economy open.

 

And then of course you have to factor in future costs.  If unemployment rises by 2 million and retirement age goes up to 70, then obviously that's only money - can it be weighed against people's lives?  Well, yes,  That's what governments do.  If saving lives was all that government was about, driving would be banned and road deaths abolished.  Governments also have to think about general health, and yes, prosperity.  Rich countries have longer life expectancy than poor countries.

 

They need to do a lot more research about what would have happened.  In Brazil they had no lockdown at all and excess deaths April-June well below ours; in Peru they had the strictest lockdown of all and the highest death rate, albeit delayed until July.  How do we know what would have happened if we had done it differently? 

 

Here's an answer to your question - the "acceptable" number of deaths to keep the economy open is at least as high as the number of deaths that will happen if we keep locked down.  All they need do is provide the answer to hiw many will happen in lockdown, and we have a starting point for the answer.

Which study said austerity cost 130,000 lives? Do you have a link? I cannot imagine that is anything like true.

 

I remember a famous one saying it might have cost 30,000 lives in total over a 8-10 year period.

Edited 24 October by Sampson

[dsr-burnley 280]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Which study said austerity cost 130,000 lives? Do you have a link? I cannot imagine that is anything like true.

 

I remember a famous one saying it might have cost 30,000 lives in total over a 8-10 year period.

It's a figure widely quoted by people who oppose the conservative or coalition government.  It's based on some dodgy statistics IMO and I doubt the figure is anywhere near that.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/austerity-120000-unnecessary-deaths/

 

But to add to the basic "austerity" deaths we do need to add the very real prospect of excess deaths caused by the NHS ignoring (to a greater or lesser extent) other illnesses.  Two million operations cancelled in March to May, and the likelihood of cancelling more now.  Two million is about what they do in a quarter typically, so they have at least a three month backlog.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/26/more-than-two-million-operations-cancelled-as-nhs-fights-covid-19

 

These aren't minor operations.  They may not be immediate life or death, but they do include for example, surgery to remove cancerous tumours.  And the operations will still have to take place sometime, and there isn't much wiggle room to catch up in, so everybody's surgery is going to be three motnhs late for some time to come.

 

Add to that the way doctors have been doing all they can to discourage people from consulting them, and there will be excess deaths that would have been prevented if the NHS had been working normally.

[Costock_Fox 11,429]

I’m looking at all of this and think Wales really have nailed it. You can imagine how the conversation went as well...

 

”I’m really worried about the rapid rise in cases, what can we do?”

”Don’t know, have we tried wrapping duvets in clingfiim yet?”

 

[st albans fox 8,125]

4 hours ago, Costock_Fox said:

I’m looking at all of this and think Wales really have nailed it. You can imagine how the conversation went as well...

 

”I’m really worried about the rapid rise in cases, what can we do?”

”Don’t know, have we tried wrapping duvets in clingfiim yet?”

 

Strange that supermarkets could sell this stuff in a total lockdown but aren’t able to in a firebreak .......if the welsh socialists are intent on rescuing the high street from the supermarkets, they could take a more intelligent strategy - meanwhile, how many just about viable businesses are pushed over the edge with reduced orders and cancellations due to the consequential drop in demand ......

[Costock_Fox 11,429]

9 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Strange that supermarkets could sell this stuff in a total lockdown but aren’t able to in a firebreak .......if the welsh socialists are intent on rescuing the high street from the supermarkets, they could take a more intelligent strategy - meanwhile, how many just about viable businesses are pushed over the edge with reduced orders and cancellations due to the consequential drop in demand ......

In simple terms it’s just completely ****ing mental isn’t it.

[Legend_in_blue 1,608]

52 minutes ago, Costock_Fox said:

In simple terms it’s just completely ****ing mental isn’t it.

It is.  Absolutely.  Even more so when you look at this graph...

 

[theessexfox 1,776]

20 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

It is.  Absolutely.  Even more so when you look at this graph...

 

Great scale for evaluating deaths isn’t it, really brings out the trend very visually.

 

I had a woman of Eastern European descent literally shouting at me non stop on the tube last night for wearing a mask, was going on non stop about how the government is trying to kill more people and how if you wear it for too long you stop breathing and die. Fortunately haven’t had that issue yet, but it was quite incredible how animated and persistent she was about telling me I was an idiot.

[Nalis 4,687]

We should have a national Tier 3 for November on the basis that we go back to Tier 1 for the month of December with the acceptance that we'll probably need to go back to Tier 2 or 3 in January thereafter.

 

Think it would gain a degree of buy in from the general public which would enhance compliance before and after December, particularly as the alternative will be this no mans land we are currently in until spring.

 

Lets face it, regardless of restrictions people are going to break them around the Xmas period. 

[MonmoreStef 166]

16 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

Great scale for evaluating deaths isn’t it, really brings out the trend very visually.

 

I had a woman of Eastern European descent literally shouting at me non stop on the tube last night for wearing a mask, was going on non stop about how the government is trying to kill more people and how if you wear it for too long you stop breathing and die. Fortunately haven’t had that issue yet, but it was quite incredible how animated and persistent she was about telling me I was an idiot.

The old mask game is something I can see staying when all this Covid stuff is over.  I’ve never enjoyed sitting on a packed bus in the winter just listening to the sniffers and coughers wheezing away. Same on planes. It’s odds on that I’ve the constant cougher sat behind me.  Going forward I think I’ll be a mask wearer when in these environments just to hopefully reduce my chances of picking up some annoying cold. 

[Rain King 1,429]

Watching the AFL Grand Final on BT from Brisbane. Crowd of 30,000. Sitting together, no masks. Jealous.

Edited 24 October by Rain King

[Costock_Fox 11,429]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

It is.  Absolutely.  Even more so when you look at this graph...

 

Which bit shows the impact of people buying duvets though?

[Paninistickers 1,916]

17 minutes ago, Rain King said:

Watching the AFL Grand Final on BT from Brisbane. Crowd of 30,000. Sitting together, no masks. Jealous.

It's sickening. 

 

The risk of a 20% or even 30% capacity at outdoor sports grounds is incredibly low. Furthermore, perhaps seating punters in bubbles of 100 so that track and trace can do its stuff should someone come in riddled with it. 

 

The ban on sports crowds is spiteful.

[Lionator 2,214]

1 hour ago, Legend_in_blue said:

It is.  Absolutely.  Even more so when you look at this graph...

 

If we tested for other coronaviruses which cause colds, it would look very similar to this. Sadly it's not going to clearly improve until march.

[Parafox 2,451]

50 minutes ago, MonmoreStef said:

The old mask game is something I can see staying when all this Covid stuff is over.  I’ve never enjoyed sitting on a packed bus in the winter just listening to the sniffers and coughers wheezing away. Same on planes. It’s odds on that I’ve the constant cougher sat behind me.  Going forward I think I’ll be a mask wearer when in these environments just to hopefully reduce my chances of picking up some annoying cold. 

You do realise that the purpose of wearing a mask is largely to prevent you spreading the virus if you happen to be infected but are asymptomatic?

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson 2,476]

Chancing my arm here for a little advice.

Ive been put on the job support scheme working 2 days a week, my workplace have told me I have to use 3 days of my holiday to bump my pay up to 100% per week, is this correct? Legal? As I’ve assumed if they are claiming government support I shouldn’t have to use my holiday as well....

Be grateful for any advice from anyone more clued up than myself.

[Legend_in_blue 1,608]

21 minutes ago, Lionator said:

If we tested for other coronaviruses which cause colds, it would look very similar to this. Sadly it's not going to clearly improve until march.

 

The problem I have looking at that graph are not the deaths, but the number of "cases".

 

At what point does someone turn around and question the data that these "cases" show?  The problem, along with ICL projections (which is another subject entirely), stems from these figures and noone is questioning the accuracy of the results.

[fuchsntf 5,335]

2 hours ago, theessexfox said:

Great scale for evaluating deaths isn’t it, really brings out the trend very visually.

 

I had a woman of Eastern European descent literally shouting at me non stop on the tube last night for wearing a mask, was going on non stop about how the government is trying to kill more people and how if you wear it for too long you stop breathing and die. Fortunately haven’t had that issue yet, but it was quite incredible how animated and persistent she was about telling me I was an idiot.

Ahh...A Star from the East honestly confirms what "Middle Earth ,Leicester-branch". was already assuming..

  

[Corky 12,003]

1 hour ago, Paninistickers said:

It's sickening. 

 

The risk of a 20% or even 30% capacity at outdoor sports grounds is incredibly low. Furthermore, perhaps seating punters in bubbles of 100 so that track and trace can do its stuff should someone come in riddled with it. 

 

The ban on sports crowds is spiteful.

And now we have the absolute nonsense of fans being able to attend grounds to watch the match being played on TV with the curtains drawn to stop people looking at the pitch.

 

What the hell is going on?

[bovril 7,744]

Just now, Corky said:

And now we have the absolute nonsense of fans being able to attend grounds to watch the match being played on TV with the curtains drawn to stop people looking at the pitch.

 

What the hell is going on?

My local non league team can't open their quite spacious ground (av. crowd about 1200) but they showed their season opener at the local theatre  

[Corky 12,003]

1 minute ago, bovril said:

My local non league team can't open their quite spacious ground (av. crowd about 1200) but they showed their season opener at the local theatre  

There is no logic to any of this at all.

 

This is the problem when people who aren't interested, or don't know the ins and outs, are making the decisions.

[bovril 7,744]

Just now, Corky said:

There is no logic to any of this at all.

 

This is the problem when people who aren't interested, or don't know the ins and outs, are making the decisions.

It's also a problem of living in one of the most-centralized country in the developed world, which people are starting to wake up to.