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Coronavirus Thread

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4 minutes ago, Captain... said:

https://www.centreforcities.org/data/coronavirus-cases-uk-cities-large-towns/

 

This is an up to date list of covid rates, it seems anyone with an infection rate of over 200 per 100,000 is highest level although it's not quite as clear cut as that Warrington is middle tier.

 

This gives an indicator of where Leicester ranks in the covid league.

 

1 minute ago, StanSP said:

Has anyone seen any announcement as to when these Tiers could change (up or down)? Any idea on the thresholds for each? 

Nothing yet but the above link seems to suggest the cut off for tier 2/3 is around 200 per 100,000.

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2 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Has anyone seen any announcement as to when these Tiers could change (up or down)? Any idea on the thresholds for each? 

 

1 minute ago, stix said:


Review on 16th December


Then every two weeks onwards right?

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12 minutes ago, RowlattsFox said:

Has Liverpool been put into Tier 2 so they can say mass testing works? Or has it generally decreased to a lower level than the rest of the north? 

 

No surprise to see my area in Tier 3, despite cases apparently falling over the past few weeks. 

 

The figures posted by @Captain... below your post suggest that infections in Liverpool & Birkenhead have fallen to a much lower level than the rest of the NW - below 200.

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So we can do pretty much everything on our own or in a bubble apart from;

 

eat indoors 

attend indoor leisure facilities

get a blowie at the gents club

exercise in classes indoors

play football indoors 

have sleep overs at your mates?
 

Otherwise I can go the the gym on my own? 

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14 minutes ago, adam said:

Cant sit in a small restaurant 2 metres apart from everyone but can go shopping around the high cross with 100s of others. Makes sense. Its gonna be impossible to get out of tier 3. 

You must be able to see an epidemiological difference between sitting maskless in a closed environment and walking around an airy shopping centre with your mask on?

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14 minutes ago, adam said:

Cant sit in a small restaurant 2 metres apart from everyone but can go shopping around the high cross with 100s of others. Makes sense. Its gonna be impossible to get out of tier 3. 

We'll be like this for many weeks to come IMO. There might be a slight slow of spread at half term, but right in the middle of that you'll have multiple households mixing for Christmas.

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7 minutes ago, adam said:

Cant sit in a small restaurant 2 metres apart from everyone but can go shopping around the high cross with 100s of others. Makes sense. Its gonna be impossible to get out of tier 3. 

Because that is how it spreads small enclosed spaces. High cross is big and airy an asymptomatic covid spreader in High cross will be walking around with a mask and the amount of covid coming out their mouth will dilute to miniscule amounts in the atmosphere and everyone else wandering around with a mask will maybe get a tiny bit of it as they cross paths but not enough to catch covid. Of course nothing is guaranteed, you could be stuck in a queue at Boots with coughy Joe who doesn't like to wear a mask because it makes his face itch and you get covid, but it is all about minimising risk to a safe level.

 

Whereas if you are sitting downwind of a covid in a small or even large restaurant without a mask on you will constantly get small hits of covid that will build up over time until you have a substantial viral payload to take hold.

 

There is science behind this, it is not hard to find if you Google it. 

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2 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

You must be able to see an epidemiological difference between sitting maskless in a closed environment and walking around an airy shopping centre with your mask on?

 

1 minute ago, Captain... said:

Because that is how it spreads small enclosed spaces. High cross is big and airy an asymptomatic covid spreader in High cross will be walking around with a mask and the amount of covid coming out their mouth will dilute to miniscule amounts in the atmosphere and everyone else wandering around with a mask will maybe get a tiny bit of it as they cross paths but not enough to catch covid. Of course nothing is guaranteed, you could be stuck in a queue at Boots with coughy Joe who doesn't like to wear a mask because it makes his face itch and you get covid, but it is all about minimising risk to a safe level.

 

Whereas if you are sitting downwind of a covid in a small or even large restaurant without a mask on you will constantly get small hits of covid that will build up over time until you have a substantial viral payload to take hold.

 

There is science behind this, it is not hard to find if you Google it. 

I do agree with what you're both saying and yes you are right regarding how it spreads, but the numbers somebody posted earlier in the thread showed that supermarkets were the biggest spreader of COVID, followed by both primary and secondary schools. They are all essential though, whereas meeting friends isn't, I suppose that's the difference.

 

The shops will be absolute chaos too, imagine how many thousands of people are going to descend upon them. Get your shopping done online if possible, much easier.

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8 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Of course not.  Nothing is essential to life except eating and sleeping.  If all you do is sit in a darkened room concentrating on breathing, you should live longer.  And if you don't, it will seem longer.

 

Life was made to be lived, not to be survived.  God help us all if these vaccines don't work or if the government somehow realises they haven't abolished death after all.

Correct. Astounding how many people accept this. Feel so sorry for small business owners and whatnot. Their lives being decimated by insanity.

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Yet again, more restrictions in place for the majority of the country. We're 9 months in to a 3 week 'flatten the curve'. I'll ask again, will you still be accepting of these restrictions in 5 years time? Because I'm even starting to doubt that a vaccine will get us back to normality. 

 

In what is usually the busiest time of the year for the hospitality industry, it will be impossible for some to survive now - and I feel for those who were hoping and praying they would be in (at the very least) tier 1 restrictions simply so they can run their business. Sad, sad times.  

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"The Isle of Wight, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly - where there have been no recorded cases in the past week - will be the only areas of England in the lowest level of curbs - tier one."

 

The above is from the BBC, looking at that and what they are have stated as allowing over the Christmas period, it's absolutely mental!

 
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9 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

Yet again, more restrictions in place for the majority of the country. We're 9 months in to a 3 week 'flatten the curve'. I'll ask again, will you still be accepting of these restrictions in 5 years time? Because I'm even starting to doubt that a vaccine will get us back to normality. 

 

In what is usually the busiest time of the year for the hospitality industry, it will be impossible for some to survive now - and I feel for those who were hoping and praying they would be in (at the very least) tier 1 restrictions simply so they can run their business. Sad, sad times.  

why ?  so you can make a nonsense comment about five years time …. unless we're onto covid-22 by then ,...…..

 

anyone who thought they would be in tier 1 today has been living in cloud cuckoo land for the past fortnight (or an island/cornwall)

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2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

It's not stupid to have doubts - and you're right that they can't be sure of the long-term effects of a Covid vaccine.

 

But scientific knowledge and testing will greatly reduce the risk of unexpected long-term effects.

And that small element of risk applies to any new vaccine or medication. The flu jab is changed each year. Who's to say that or some other new med might not have unexpected long-term effects?

 

It's a case of risk assessment. There is a tiny risk that this vaccine (or any other medication) might have disastrous effects. The same applies, for example, to a new car engine or new food product. Life ain't risk free.

But we do know that there is a major risk from Covid.....

 

It's  not stupid to have doubts, to look into the matter via informed sources - and even to have the vaccination with a few doubts remaining.

It would be stupid and irresponsible to assume there's a major risk - especially relying on uninformed sources (and I'm not suggesting you support this!) - and to reject vaccination due to that slight risk, while accepting the known massive risks of Covid.

I agree with all of this. There are some nuanced positions someone could take though which would still be logical.

 

If someone didn't get a vaccine which was mandated to everyone else (for example), they would effectively free-ride on the herd vaccination whilst harbouring none of the risk (albeit low) of having a vaccine. If that person wasn't particularly at risk from COVID, they may assess the risk and decide that they shouldn't get the vaccine. From an individualist perspective there are certainly some interesting hypothetical choices which could be made.

 

Again, I'm pro vaccine and don't think there's much risk from vaccines whatsoever, I just understand why some people may decide they don't want it without necessarily thinking they are daft.

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30 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Of course not.  Nothing is essential to life except eating and sleeping.  If all you do is sit in a darkened room concentrating on breathing, you should live longer.  And if you don't, it will seem longer.

 

Life was made to be lived, not to be survived.  God help us all if these vaccines don't work or if the government somehow realises they haven't abolished death after all.

 

20 minutes ago, Dan LCFC said:

Correct. Astounding how many people accept this. Feel so sorry for small business owners and whatnot. Their lives being decimated by insanity.

With respect, this is often said by folks who actually haven't come close to death and therefore have never experienced one of the most unifying human emotions of all - right at the end, when it looks like it is all over, the want not to die.

Accounts from suicide attempters who survived bear this out.

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Does seem off that the politicians use R rate has a justification that the overall restrictions be lifted yet then choose to impose the most harsh restrictions in areas of the country where the r rate has come down whilst Tier 2 contains three areas where the r rate is increasing.
 

The first lockdown was a disaster because they used cases and deaths as the determining factor yet that information to 2 to 4 weeks old. 
 

The R rate is a more important indicator of what’s happening today (or near as possibly reportable) 

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