StanSP 30,231 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 34 minutes ago, st albans fox said: Is this worth thinking about ? If no one is really catching the flu this winter cos of the restrictions, how will that virus mutate in order to survive? Are we going to see a terrible flu season next winter as a consequence? I think a few have mentioned it. Same with colds as well being more serious as there's been less exposure to it for the body to prepare against it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
reynard 1,450 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 1 minute ago, Lcfc82 said: It wouldn’t surprise me either but I don’t get why restaurants especially need to be closed for that long. The ones I went in were really well regulated. Because Pubs and restaurants and shops and musuems and galleries are an easy target. Easier to close than offices and politically easier to close than schools. Personally can't see why Museums and galleries with strict ticketing access are closed as much as pubs. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stivo 112 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 41 minutes ago, st albans fox said: Is this worth thinking about ? If no one is really catching the flu this winter cos of the restrictions, how will that virus mutate in order to survive? Are we going to see a terrible flu season next winter as a consequence? I wouldn’t worry too much, a virus has no concept of the big picture. If a virus is prevalent in the population and (because there is a lot of copying going on) a mistake arises that spreads better then that more successfully variant will spread faster. With flu there is currently much less of it about, less copying and so less chance of a new strain arising, 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
st albans fox 8,755 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 10 minutes ago, Stivo said: I wouldn’t worry too much, a virus has no concept of the big picture. If a virus is prevalent in the population and (because there is a lot of copying going on) a mistake arises that spreads better then that more successfully variant will spread faster. With flu there is currently much less of it about, less copying and so less chance of a new strain arising, I thought that virus’ will mutate in order to survive ..... they are can only survive by infecting a host and spreading ... if we stop that spread then what will they do to survive ? That’s my question really ... I’m not sure that they just go away...... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stivo 112 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 43 minutes ago, st albans fox said: I thought that virus’ will mutate in order to survive ..... they are can only survive by infecting a host and spreading ... if we stop that spread then what will they do to survive ? That’s my question really ... I’m not sure that they just go away...... That’s it though, it doesn’t mutate to survive, it has no concept of surviving, and mutations are just accidents. Mistakes in copying arise, and if they are better fitted to surviving then they become more prevalent. Each individual flu virus doesn’t know that we are behaving differently this year and it cannot devise a purposeful plan to adapt. By socially distancing we are applying a selective pressure. If a mutation or more likely a set of mutations accidentally arose that made flu more transmissible in a socially distanced world then yes it would have an advantage. But, against that, we currently have much less flu about and so less opportunity for such mutations to occur. We have lived with flu for a long time and thus presumably there is no single mutation that gives a big advantage or it would have previously been selected for. Now if you wait long enough and socially distance into the future it is possible that a super flu may evolve, but your question was about next year. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post Line-X 3,105 Posted 24 January Popular Post Report Share Posted 24 January 1 hour ago, st albans fox said: Is this worth thinking about ? If no one is really catching the flu this winter cos of the restrictions, how will that virus mutate in order to survive? Are we going to see a terrible flu season next winter as a consequence? You raise a really good question - and I'll come to why. Firstly, it's important to understand that as long as the virus is outside of the body, its inner instructions for propagation lies untouched - sequestered away and encased within a small capsule. Essentially, viruses can’t live or reproduce without hijacking another creature’s cells. They do this by clinging to them and injecting their genetic material fooling your cells into thinking the virus's genetic material is your own. Like a secret undercover agent infiltrating your system, the consequence is that your own cells do the virus’s job and create a legion of new viruses and this is when mutations occur. So long as the viruses can visit a host, they change. As you know, coronavirus is so named because of its crown like appearance. Flu is the same. The capsule I referred to has proteins that act like spikes which enable it to attach to our cells. The proteins on the capsule surface can adapt when the genetic material mutates, but they will still work. That enables them escape detection by our immune system, which has learned to respond to and mobilise against an old variant of the spikes. Where flu differs radically from the current Coronavirus is the rate of mutation. Every mutation risks damage - but the flu virus is an old hand at it. To maintain its chameleon like elusiveness, the flu virus relies upon this antigenic drift, where a gradual build-up of mutations that affect the head of a viral particle (the part that’s usually recognised by the immune system), eventually alters sufficiently so that it enter innocuously in disguise, no longer being perceived as a threat. This change is underway during overwintering enabling it to dart across to the opposite end of the globe once the season is over. This is why equatorial communities experience year round flu, as opposed to seasonal outbreaks. In the Northern Hemisphere the vaccine is determined in February, while the composition of the Southern Hemisphere vaccine is decided in September. Because of the rate of mutation, it is only good for six months...effectively the flu season in either hemisphere. The challenge lies in the development a Universal flu vaccine. Scarily, this is only Influenza Group B that we are referring to here. Influenza Group A is strewn across the animal kingdom, for which it is obviously impossible to vaccinate - and we all know what can happen when one of these zoonitic diseases makes the jump. Fortunately, a pandemic of 1918 proportions is rare, after all, a successful virus travels incognito and certainly doesn't want to kill its host. It would appear that social distancing and improved public hygiene have together resulted in attenuated seasons of flu virus infection and the low levels that we are experiencing. My role is frequently person facing within a diverse international environment. I usually experience two to three viral infections a year, the last one being Novermber 2019 and throughout remote working which was imposed the following March, I haven't had so much of a sniffle. In spite of this, there are many possible reasons that cases might be down this year. People could be reluctant to seek medical treatment, and it may be that fewer tests were conducted as resources were diverted elsewhere. To return to your very relevant post concerning how this newfound scarcity of flu is affecting the virus - this raises two possible scenarios as I see it. The first is that the virus might be evolving more slowly than usual. This is significant, because it means the strains we encounter next season wouldn’t differ that much from the ones that circulated last year, and infections might be less severe. Returning to my original point - the lower the circulation, the lower the rate of mutation. However, in reality, in the absence of causal data, it simply isn't known for sure if social distancing has led to fewer flu infections worldwide or just as I suggested, a fall in the number recorded. The second scenario, assuming that it hasn’t, this then means that the rate of its evolution might be the same. As social distancing in relaxed in response to the Covid-19 vaccination, parts of the world that currently have fewer flu cases could be hit hard by snapback. And what will happen to these other pathogens in the wake of the Covid-19 vaccine? If there's no transmission of other respiratory pathogens, that means people are not getting immunity to them. Important to stress here though, that the myth that isolation and social distancing compromises and weakens the immune system of an adult is precisely that, a complete fallacy...it is simply vulnerability through lack of exposure to these strains that is the issue, not the functioning of the immune system itself. Throughout this crisis we are reminded of the fragility and vulnerability of mankind to nature which is entirely indifferent to our plight. Despite the breakthroughs, Science and Technology can only go so far at one time; nature is frequently one step ahead while social inequities always remain. Ironically, it is the exponential pace of technological change and our consumer lifestyles that accompany this that are threatening our continued existence on the planet. As opposed to Mathusian prophecies of doom, I am more inclined towards Ester Boserup's belief that 'necessity is the Mother of invention', but nature always has something in its locker and currently there are several very conspicuous civilisation threatening scenarios that we simply cannot currently engineer our way out of should they come to pass. Fear the 575 page thread about antibiotic resistance - but bizarrely we should already have thousands of pages dedicated to climate change. A sudden catastrophe such as the eruption of a supervolcano or at the very least, a Carrington Event - and no such thread exists. 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Col city fan 11,644 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January Guys and gals just be careful at the mo I personally know a few people at present with the virus (Leicester) and it’s making most of them feel like shite Use your heads... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Line-X 3,105 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 4 minutes ago, Col city fan said: Guys and gals An unfortunate and questionable choice of phrase there Col. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Poznan34 889 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January An account of what it's like to go into ICU with covid, scary stuff: https://www.ft.com/content/2b0dbba3-6fe8-4c2d-8cca-90e87261d436?shareType=nongift Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Col city fan 11,644 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 9 minutes ago, Line-X said: An unfortunate and questionable choice of phrase there Col. Aye, no offence intended.. ‘People’... just be careful at the moment... 👍 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Leicester_Loyal 5,965 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus Quote Link to post Share on other sites
leicsmac 4,939 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 31 minutes ago, Line-X said: Throughout this crisis we are reminded of the fragility and vulnerability of mankind to nature which is entirely indifferent to our plight. Despite the breakthroughs, Science and Technology can only go so far at one time; nature is frequently one step ahead while social inequities always remain. Ironically, it is the exponential pace of technological change and our consumer lifestyles that accompany this that are threatening our continued existence on the planet. As opposed to Mathusian prophecies of doom, I am more inclined towards Ester Boserup's belief that 'necessity is the Mother of invention', but nature always has something in its locker and currently there are several very conspicuous civilisation threatening scenarios that we simply cannot currently engineer our way out of should they come to pass. Fear the 575 page thread about antibiotic resistance - but bizarrely we should already have thousands of pages dedicated to climate change. A sudden catastrophe such as the eruption of a supervolcano or at the very least, a Carrington Event - and no such thread exists. This is all spot on. The problem is, as far as I can think, that as long as humans are wedded to short-term self-interest with empathy barely extending beyond our line of sight as we are inclined to be, that "necessity" will continue to be the mother of invention...and as you infer, that is a pathway that allows nature to spin the roulette wheel for us every day. This outbreak was just a taste of that. Maybe as a species we might be able to change our thinking a little before the ball lands on "0" again. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
reynard 1,450 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 29 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said: April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus And they are likely to be the first things to be allowed to open. Easter is first weekend in April so mid to late April at earliest for schools by the look of things. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Harrydc 596 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 3 hours ago, Benguin said: Presumably because people can’t look them in the eyes. I’ve been feeling we need scaremongering and propaganda for ages because at the moment peoples attitude is that the government are doing dreadfully and because of that and things like Dominic Cummings braking rules I’m justified to do that too. I think it was a shameful piece of propaganda. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Benguin 1,296 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 3 minutes ago, Harrydc said: I think it was a shameful piece of propaganda. People are not following rules, that’s plain to see, what do you think needs to be done to get people to follow rules, out of curiosity? I can only see drastic actions, such as this propaganda achieving anything. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nod.E 2,422 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January Seeing a lot of clamour for zero covid. I feel like we're too far along, Boris has said we'll be living with it in some form basically forever, and with the vaccine roll out ramped up to required levels come April/May, it won't be needed anyway. Wish people would just sit tight til that point and then relax. Zero Covid would've been the right strategy in March, but not now. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Izzy 24,019 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said: April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus WHAT!!?? Where does it say this? No way my kids will survive until then. I’ll have strangled them long before April/May time. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lionator 2,318 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said: April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus They'll open after the Easter holiday, if not a bit before if we can get case numbers down as quickly as we have been doing. No way will schools be shut into May unless there's a sudden uptick in infections. 1 hour ago, Nod.E said: Seeing a lot of clamour for zero covid. I feel like we're too far along, Boris has said we'll be living with it in some form basically forever, and with the vaccine roll out ramped up to required levels come April/May, it won't be needed anyway. Wish people would just sit tight til that point and then relax. Zero Covid would've been the right strategy in March, but not now. I've been reading a lot of Devi Sridhar's stuff recently, I think she's delusional and would question her motives. Zero covid is idealistic, theoretical and has no long term end goal. Would the British public really lockdown for 6+ months to get levels to zero and would they be prepared to go into a national lockdown everytime a new cluster of cases breaks out, even with a vaccine?? We'd also need to quarantine every truck driver entering the country for 10/14 days?? That's not going to happen, or else the country would grind to a halt. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BKLFox 721 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January Another weekend of pulling together https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55787044 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55786863 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whoareyaaa 2,553 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 2 hours ago, Col city fan said: Guys and gals just be careful at the mo I personally know a few people at present with the virus (Leicester) and it’s making most of them feel like shite Use your heads... really? who would have thought it 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Countryfox 8,626 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 2 hours ago, Col city fan said: Guys and gals just be careful at the mo I personally know a few people at present with the virus (Leicester) and it’s making most of them feel like shite Use your heads... You don’t have to tell me Col .. the neighbours on the left all have it (6 of them) ... and our neighbours on the right all have it (4 of them) ... We’re surrounded !!! ... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bovril 8,478 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January Just now, BKLFox said: Another weekend of pulling together https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55787044 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55786863 Some good craft beer places in those railway arches tbf. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
The People's Hero 2,298 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 13 hours ago, Super_horns said: Telegraph reporting that the Government coul give councils the power to shut pubs , restaurants etc till July . Guess that is a worse case situation ? 100% its been discussed mate. I can tell you that for definite. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Trumpet 507 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January 1 hour ago, whoareyaaa said: really? who would have thought it Almost 12 months in and we’ve identified a previously missed symptom of “makes you feel like shit”. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Corky 14,473 Posted 24 January Report Share Posted 24 January Can pubs and restaurants survive being shut for another six months? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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