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Coronavirus Thread

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34 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Is this worth thinking about ?  If no one is really catching the flu this winter cos of the restrictions, how will that virus mutate in order to survive?  Are we going to see a terrible flu season next winter as a consequence?

I think a few have mentioned it. Same with colds as well being more serious as there's been less exposure to it for the body to prepare against it. 

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1 minute ago, Lcfc82 said:

It wouldn’t surprise me either but I don’t get why restaurants especially need to be closed for that long. The ones I went in were really well regulated.

 

Because Pubs and restaurants and shops and musuems and galleries are an easy target. Easier to close than offices and politically easier to close than schools.

 

Personally can't see why Museums and galleries with strict ticketing access are closed as much as pubs.

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41 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Is this worth thinking about ?  If no one is really catching the flu this winter cos of the restrictions, how will that virus mutate in order to survive?  Are we going to see a terrible flu season next winter as a consequence?

I wouldn’t worry too much,  a virus has no concept of the big picture.  
 

If a virus is prevalent in the population and (because there is a lot of copying going on) a mistake arises that spreads better then that more successfully variant will spread faster.

 

With flu there is currently much less of it about, less copying and so less chance of a new strain arising,

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10 minutes ago, Stivo said:

I wouldn’t worry too much,  a virus has no concept of the big picture.  
 

If a virus is prevalent in the population and (because there is a lot of copying going on) a mistake arises that spreads better then that more successfully variant will spread faster.

 

With flu there is currently much less of it about, less copying and so less chance of a new strain arising,

I thought that virus’ will mutate in order to survive ..... they are can only survive by infecting a host and spreading ... if we stop that spread then what will they do to survive ?  That’s my question really ...  I’m not sure that they just go away......

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43 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

I thought that virus’ will mutate in order to survive ..... they are can only survive by infecting a host and spreading ... if we stop that spread then what will they do to survive ?  That’s my question really ...  I’m not sure that they just go away......

That’s it though, it doesn’t mutate to survive, it has no concept of surviving, and mutations are just accidents.

Mistakes in copying arise, and if they are better fitted to surviving then they become more prevalent.  
 

Each individual flu virus doesn’t know that we are behaving differently this year and it cannot devise a purposeful plan to adapt.

 

By socially distancing we are applying a selective pressure.  If a mutation or more likely a set of mutations accidentally arose that made flu more transmissible in a socially distanced world then yes it would have an advantage.

 

But, against that, we currently have much less flu about and so less opportunity for such mutations to occur.  We have lived with flu for a long time and thus presumably there is no single mutation that gives a big advantage or it would have previously been selected for.

 

Now if you wait long enough and socially distance into the future it is possible that a super flu may evolve, but your question was about next year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Line-X said:

 

Throughout this crisis we are reminded of the fragility and vulnerability of mankind to nature which is entirely indifferent to our plight. Despite the breakthroughs, Science and Technology can only go so far at one time; nature is frequently one step ahead while social inequities always remain. Ironically, it is the exponential pace of technological change and our consumer lifestyles that accompany this that are threatening our continued existence on the planet. As opposed to Mathusian prophecies of doom, I am more inclined towards Ester Boserup's belief that 'necessity is the Mother of invention', but nature always has something in its locker and currently there are several very conspicuous civilisation threatening scenarios that we simply cannot currently engineer our way out of should they come to pass.

 

Fear the 575 page thread about antibiotic resistance - but bizarrely we should already have thousands of pages dedicated to climate change. A sudden catastrophe such as the eruption of a supervolcano or at the very least, a Carrington Event - and no such thread exists.  

 

 

This is all spot on.

 

The problem is, as far as I can think, that as long as humans are wedded to short-term self-interest with empathy barely extending beyond our line of sight as we are inclined to be, that "necessity" will continue to be the mother of invention...and as you infer, that is a pathway that allows nature to spin the roulette wheel for us every day. This outbreak was just a taste of that.

 

Maybe as a species we might be able to change our thinking a little before the ball lands on "0" again.

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29 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus :nono:

And they are likely to be the first things to be allowed to open. Easter is first weekend in April so mid to late April at earliest for schools by the look of things.

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3 hours ago, Benguin said:

Presumably because people can’t look them in the eyes.

 

I’ve been feeling we need scaremongering and propaganda for ages because at the moment peoples attitude is that the government are doing dreadfully and because of that and things like Dominic Cummings braking rules I’m justified to do that too. 
 

 

I think it was a shameful piece of propaganda. 

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3 minutes ago, Harrydc said:

I think it was a shameful piece of propaganda. 

People are not following rules, that’s plain to see, what do you think needs to be done to get people to follow rules, out of curiosity? I can only see drastic actions, such as this propaganda achieving anything. 

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Seeing a lot of clamour for zero covid.

 

I feel like we're too far along, Boris has said we'll be living with it in some form basically forever, and with the vaccine roll out ramped up to required levels come April/May, it won't be needed anyway. 

 

Wish people would just sit tight til that point and then relax. Zero Covid would've been the right strategy in March, but not now.

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1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus :nono:

WHAT!!??

Where does it say this?

No way my kids will survive until then.
I’ll have strangled them long before April/May time. 

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1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

April or May until the schools reopen, Jesus :nono:

They'll open after the Easter holiday, if not a bit before if we can get case numbers down as quickly as we have been doing. No way will schools be shut into May unless there's a sudden uptick in infections. 

 

1 hour ago, Nod.E said:

Seeing a lot of clamour for zero covid.

 

I feel like we're too far along, Boris has said we'll be living with it in some form basically forever, and with the vaccine roll out ramped up to required levels come April/May, it won't be needed anyway. 

 

Wish people would just sit tight til that point and then relax. Zero Covid would've been the right strategy in March, but not now.

I've been reading a lot of Devi Sridhar's stuff recently, I think she's delusional and would question her motives. Zero covid is idealistic, theoretical and has no long term end goal. 

 

Would the British public really lockdown for 6+ months to get levels to zero and would they be prepared to go into a national lockdown everytime a new cluster of cases breaks out, even with a vaccine?? We'd also need to quarantine every truck driver entering the country for 10/14 days?? That's not going to happen, or else the country would grind to a halt. 

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2 hours ago, Col city fan said:

Guys and gals just be careful at the mo

I personally know a few people at present with the virus (Leicester) and it’s making most of them feel like shite

Use your heads...

 

really? who would have thought it lol 

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2 hours ago, Col city fan said:

Guys and gals just be careful at the mo

I personally know a few people at present with the virus (Leicester) and it’s making most of them feel like shite

Use your heads...

 


You don’t have to tell me Col ..  the neighbours on the left all have it (6 of them)  ...   and our neighbours on the right all have it (4 of them) ...  

 

We’re surrounded !!! ...   :surrender:

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