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Just now, Leicester_Loyal said:

A friend had this and they realised it was because their neighbours had tested positive, they were told to self isolate by the app even though they hadn't left the house in like a week.

I get that but we saw the couple one side going out walking with their Grandkids (allowed?) at lunch and the couple on the other side going out walking their dog.

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13 minutes ago, Rain King said:

I get that but we saw the couple one side going out walking with their Grandkids (allowed?) at lunch and the couple on the other side going out walking their dog.

Maybe they're not isolating or maybe it's an accident, you'll probably never know tbh.

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2 hours ago, Harrydc said:

Matt Hancock also saying today that we're a 'long long way off' easing restrictions. You'd imagine with this 'world beating' vaccine we'd be closer than ever to not just easing restrictions, but completely ending them. 

I think, what they've learnt from the half arsed lockdown in November is that if you give people an inch then they'll take a mile. Once it became clear that the lockdown would end on December 2nd, people stopped complying and it helped cases to go up. They're not going to give any definitive dates. If we're being honest then it's going to be March/April when the first restrictions are dropped and month by month we'll hopefully see less and less restrictions until we're back to normal. 

 

Unless something drastic happens then we wont be back in major restrictions ever again due to covid, however if there's a surge in cases next winter for any reason (there shouldn't be but you can't predict these things to the letter) then they may reintroduce mask wearing and social distancing. It's 95%-99% likely that this will be the last lockdown. 

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22 minutes ago, Lcfc82 said:

Possibly quarantining new arrivals if coming from somewhere with a high rate or a new variation of the virus has been found but that’s it. 
The vaccine should reduce hospital omissions enough to allow us to go about or normal lives, unless I’m missing something ?

Hopefully, yes. There are possibilities such as new variants of the virus that could (could) make the vaccines less effective, or require an update to vaccines that would again take time, money and effort to roll out again. That’s not to say that vaccines would stop working entirely, more that it’s feasible a variant comes along that lowers an existing vaccine’s efficacy, meaning that variant’s R number could creep above 1 and require a few restrictions to push it back below 1 again.

 

It’s all coulds and mights of course, but my guess would be that we could well have to answer this question in some form. And it won’t mean we or vaccines have failed if we do.

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1 hour ago, Dunge said:

I’ve seen it suggested at press conferences - by the scientists present - that there will ultimately need to be a conversation had about what levels of Covid are acceptable in society - e.g. Is a flu-like death count per year “reasonable”? I think the politicians are avoiding that question for now, and for good reason - their focus is on securing answers at all before worrying about scale.

 

Ultimately, you can project deaths and NHS capacity depending on calculated R rates each year, and then some degree of restrictions - not necessarily anything like lockdown, but maybe enforcing mask use on public transport for example - may be considered a tangible solution to keep any R rate to manageable bounds.

 

But there will be a lot of voices out there that will shout against lockdown or restrictions next winter, and my guess is that it’s likely some will be recommended. But I don’t think the answer will be either/or. I think it’ll be about finding a balance.

 

Would people consider any restrictions to be too much? Even if it’s just masks on public transport or social distancing in restaurants? How about quarantining returnees from abroad, or active test and trace isolation? Is anything too much, even if it means a depleted NHS capacity for other things?

This...

 

There are 78,000 smoking related deaths per year that is obviously acceptable. Otherwise smoking would be banned.

By mid Feb if all the over 80s and most at risk are vaccinated then the death rate will fall massively. To 10-15% of what it is now. This is surely acceptable.

With on going vaccinations and warmer months approaching this level with rapidly fall.

 

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5 hours ago, Dunge said:

I’ve seen it suggested at press conferences - by the scientists present - that there will ultimately need to be a conversation had about what levels of Covid are acceptable in society - e.g. Is a flu-like death count per year “reasonable”? 

Yes, certainly.  If you were told that we expected 600,000 people to die next year but because of a bad flu season it's going to be 620,000, would you think that stopping indoors for 6 months, closing all the schools, and bankrupting the country was a fair and reasonable response?

 

If there was a practical chance that the government could confer immortality for us all, then fair enough.  If the best they can do is increase average life expectancy by 8 hours, then no.

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2 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Yes, certainly.  If you were told that we expected 600,000 people to die next year but because of a bad flu season it's going to be 620,000, would you think that stopping indoors for 6 months, closing all the schools, and bankrupting the country was a fair and reasonable response?

 

If there was a practical chance that the government could confer immortality for us all, then fair enough.  If the best they can do is increase average life expectancy by 8 hours, then no.

I would not, of course. But that’s not the decision that may have to be made. The more relevant question I think is how many deaths, along with disruption to the NHS, instances of long Covid, etc. would be worth enforcing just masks on public transport, for instance. Not a full lockdown but some restrictions. And if so, to what degree? That’s ultimately the question I think might need answering, not a black & white “Lockdown or No Lockdown”.

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28 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I would not, of course. But that’s not the decision that may have to be made. The more relevant question I think is how many deaths, along with disruption to the NHS, instances of long Covid, etc. would be worth enforcing just masks on public transport, for instance. Not a full lockdown but some restrictions. And if so, to what degree? That’s ultimately the question I think might need answering, not a black & white “Lockdown or No Lockdown”.

Unless the highly unlikely scenario happens that you can spread the virus after vaccination, then no I wouldn't.

 

I wish they would stop banging on about the dangers of this virus being passed on by people who have been vaccinated.  Virtually all vaccines make it very difficult to impossible for the vaccinated person to spread the virus.  Instead of bleating about "it hasn't been tested so we don't know", they could say instead "we are not aware of any reason why this should be different from vaccines for other viruses".  It's no use treating people like idiots who can't be trusted and then complaining when they behave like idiots who can't be trusted.

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3 hours ago, Otis said:

This...

 

There are 78,000 smoking related deaths per year that is obviously acceptable. Otherwise smoking would be banned.

By mid Feb if all the over 80s and most at risk are vaccinated then the death rate will fall massively. To 10-15% of what it is now. This is surely acceptable.

With on going vaccinations and warmer months approaching this level with rapidly fall.

 

You're forgetting all the tax revenue this generates. Different beast entirely. 

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/

 

'Britain faces a three-month lockdown "halfway house" after Easter, with a full reopening delayed until all over-50s have had their second dose of the vaccine, The Telegraph understands.

 

Ministers are considering proposals to begin reopening swathes of the economy in April under similar restrictions to those in place over the summer, with “rule of six” and social distancing measures in force in pubs and restaurants.

 

A return to full normality will be delayed for at least 12 to 14 weeks to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

 

Officials are understood to be planning the reopening of schools first, followed by an increase in personal freedoms, allowing meetings of friends and family outdoors, before hospitality opens with social distancing measures in place.'

 

 

 

Articles like this give me some hope of a life again:fc:

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7 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/

 

'Britain faces a three-month lockdown "halfway house" after Easter, with a full reopening delayed until all over-50s have had their second dose of the vaccine, The Telegraph understands.

 

Ministers are considering proposals to begin reopening swathes of the economy in April under similar restrictions to those in place over the summer, with “rule of six” and social distancing measures in force in pubs and restaurants.

 

A return to full normality will be delayed for at least 12 to 14 weeks to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

 

Officials are understood to be planning the reopening of schools first, followed by an increase in personal freedoms, allowing meetings of friends and family outdoors, before hospitality opens with social distancing measures in place.'

 

 

 

Articles like this give me some hope of a life again:fc:


lol That article really tries its best to present it as a terrible thing. ‘3 month halfway house lockdown’ with rule of six in pubs and majority of the economy open again?? That’s verging on normality itself! Of course there needs to be plans to open the rest up as soon as possible but to call that a lockdown is laughable.

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13 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Why were no fines handed out ? They're having a sing song and holding hands in the middle of a public park. Fine the thick bastards. 

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10 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:


lol That article really tries its best to present it as a terrible thing. ‘3 month halfway house lockdown’ with rule of six in pubs and majority of the economy open again?? That’s verging on normality itself! Of course there needs to be plans to open the rest up as soon as possible but to call that a lockdown is laughable.

Not for pensioners it isn't.  I think sometimes when we're younger and get out more and see more people in daily life, we forget that for pensioners who are not allowed to see any of their friends and particularly family, it's a long way from normality itself.

 

"Here is your new baby grandchild - would you like to wave at it from 6 feet away as long as it isn't raining" is not normal.

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2 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Not for pensioners it isn't.  I think sometimes when we're younger and get out more and see more people in daily life, we forget that for pensioners who are not allowed to see any of their friends and particularly family, it's a long way from normality itself.

 

"Here is your new baby grandchild - would you like to wave at it from 6 feet away as long as it isn't raining" is not normal.


If this is April when all pensioners have been vaccinated, they’ll be as free as anyone to join family in the pub, at the park or in the garden, etc. 

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8 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/01/24/britain-faces-three-month-halfway-house-lockdown-easter-over/

 

'Britain faces a three-month lockdown "halfway house" after Easter, with a full reopening delayed until all over-50s have had their second dose of the vaccine, The Telegraph understands.

 

Ministers are considering proposals to begin reopening swathes of the economy in April under similar restrictions to those in place over the summer, with “rule of six” and social distancing measures in force in pubs and restaurants.

 

A return to full normality will be delayed for at least 12 to 14 weeks to allow for all over-50s to have their second dose of the vaccine, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

 

Officials are understood to be planning the reopening of schools first, followed by an increase in personal freedoms, allowing meetings of friends and family outdoors, before hospitality opens with social distancing measures in place.'

 

 

 

Articles like this give me some hope of a life again:fc:

I don't quite understand from this article, what would be closed during this "Halfway House" lockdown?

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1 minute ago, dsr-burnley said:

Football grounds.  Clubs.  Libraries.  Old Folks' Centres.  Social Clubs.  Everywhere that people might gather to have fun.

 

People - please don't ever think that last summer was "near normal".  It wasn't, and it should never be.  Last summer was an awful time of horrible restrictions, especially for the old, and just because this winter is even worse does not make last summer good.

 

as a rule of thumb - if having a cup of tea in your next door neighbour's kitchen is a criminal offence, then we are not "almost normal".

I wasn't saying that it was going to be normal, just asking the question of what would likely to be closed.


Selfishly, I plan on getting married in June (After moving it from last year), so I'm constantly on the look out for news to imply whether that will be possible.

 

For what it's worth, I don't think "Normal" will be happening at all in 2021.

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23 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

That isn't "near normality".  

 

18 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Football grounds.  Clubs.  Libraries.  Old Folks' Centres.  Social Clubs.  Everywhere that people might gather to have fun.

 

People - please don't ever think that last summer was "near normal".  It wasn't, and it should never be.  Last summer was an awful time of horrible restrictions, especially for the old, and just because this winter is even worse does not make last summer good.

 

as a rule of thumb - if having a cup of tea in your next door neighbour's kitchen is a criminal offence, then we are not "almost normal".


Its as near normality we’ve been since last March, and I don’t think anyone cares if two vaccinated pensioners decide to visit each other after April when they’ve both been vaccinated. You’d assume the current timeframe could change if new cases, hospital admissions and deaths really are tanking by then as well. They don’t have any kind of mandate for lockdown after the over 50s anyway as that’s the last group that get hospitalised in any notable number,

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1 hour ago, Finnaldo said:


lol That article really tries its best to present it as a terrible thing. ‘3 month halfway house lockdown’ with rule of six in pubs and majority of the economy open again?? That’s verging on normality itself! Of course there needs to be plans to open the rest up as soon as possible but to call that a lockdown is laughable.

While the report is good news and within what most of us would accept in the short term, its nowhere near normality.

 

Until we can hugs our parents, go to a normal wedding, go to a nightclub, watch a gig or football match and travel freely around the world, then we can say its verging on normality.

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51 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Football grounds.  Clubs.  Libraries.  Old Folks' Centres.  Social Clubs.  Everywhere that people might gather to have fun.

 

People - please don't ever think that last summer was "near normal".  It wasn't, and it should never be.  Last summer was an awful time of horrible restrictions, especially for the old, and just because this winter is even worse does not make last summer good.

 

as a rule of thumb - if having a cup of tea in your next door neighbour's kitchen is a criminal offence, then we are not "almost normal".

According to some posters at the start of the year we arent even in a lockdown right now...

Edited by Nalis
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