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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

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6 hours ago, Sampson said:

Seems to be some serious confusion as to whether asthmatics will fall under priority group 6 or not right now.

 

We've been trying to look into it for my nephew, but the government advise and the JCI priority list on the website seems to conflict itself. Even the Asthma UK website doesn't know and says they've been contacting the government for urgent clarity.

I presume some Dr’s are saying they do as I know someone who is under 50 and had the vaccine a few days ago, on the back of calling for a new inhaler.

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On 10/02/2021 at 16:03, FoxesDeb said:

Everyone has different ideas regarding this though, don't they? I've booked a couple of holidays already, if they don't go ahead, so be it, I'll rearrange. I have friends who have done the same, and other friends who won't book anything yet.

 

I don't really see the issue? 

Yeah we’ve done that, one in Feb half term (already cancelled), one in July to France (rearranged from last year’s cancellation) and one in October half term. Hopefully we get at least one 🤞

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I don't understand why the scientific advisors are saying that we haven't seen an impact on hospitalisations and deaths from the vaccination programme yet?

 

I understand it takes 2-3 weeks from date of vaccination for immunity to be achieved. 3 weeks ago today (21st January) a total of 5.4 million people had been vaccinated. Given that those 5.4 million are the oldest and most vulnerable, if they hadn't been vaccinated many would have contracted Covid and died by now?

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23 minutes ago, DennisNedry said:

I don't understand why the scientific advisors are saying that we haven't seen an impact on hospitalisations and deaths from the vaccination programme yet?

 

I understand it takes 2-3 weeks from date of vaccination for immunity to be achieved. 3 weeks ago today (21st January) a total of 5.4 million people had been vaccinated. Given that those 5.4 million are the oldest and most vulnerable, if they hadn't been vaccinated many would have contracted Covid and died by now?

I literally don't understand anything anymore. Struggling to keep up with what is going on other than knowing this is going to drag on for a long time. One of the scientists said today face masks will be here forever as if there's never been a pandemic before - surely pandemics teach us that they do pass eventually or have I completely missed something?

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1 hour ago, DennisNedry said:

I don't understand why the scientific advisors are saying that we haven't seen an impact on hospitalisations and deaths from the vaccination programme yet?

 

I understand it takes 2-3 weeks from date of vaccination for immunity to be achieved. 3 weeks ago today (21st January) a total of 5.4 million people had been vaccinated. Given that those 5.4 million are the oldest and most vulnerable, if they hadn't been vaccinated many would have contracted Covid and died by now?

We are seeing decreases in hospitalisations and deaths, particularly in older age groups. 

 

 

Click into the thread and you will also see the 85+ graph. The steeper decline in hospitalisations and deaths here suggests to me vaccine effectiveness kicking in.

 

This, despite:

 

- Getting deeper into winter when respiratory viruses thrive. Remember in wave 1 we never had these months, so don't despair if it feels harder by comparison.

 

- Very few people being actually fully vaccinated yet with both jabs.

 

We're getting there. Nobody in the public eye wants to get carried away for fear of having to U-turn, and for fear of giving people an inch for them to take a mile.

 

It was always going to be a long winter, but we're getting there. We really, really are. Hold tight.

Edited by Nod.E
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53 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

Absolutely unjustifiable.

A vaccinated population will pay about as much attention to that b*llocks as a 'do not tumble dry' label.

Edited by Nod.E
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11 hours ago, DennisNedry said:

I don't understand why the scientific advisors are saying that we haven't seen an impact on hospitalisations and deaths from the vaccination programme yet?

 

I understand it takes 2-3 weeks from date of vaccination for immunity to be achieved. 3 weeks ago today (21st January) a total of 5.4 million people had been vaccinated. Given that those 5.4 million are the oldest and most vulnerable, if they hadn't been vaccinated many would have contracted Covid and died by now?

It’s a week or so  too soon for a strong signal.
 

 If we take your figure and round up we could say almost  10% of population have  got immunity today.  
without the vaccine about 1500 would be expected to catch it today, get symptoms and get tested say in 3-4 days time and get results day after.

 

So any current signal in the data  can only be based on the much smaller number who were vaccinated 4 weeks ago. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, ealingfox said:

 

Absolutely unjustifiable.

Just heard on the radio, the head of public health England has said measures need to be tougher this summer than last and that restrictions will still be in place next winter. 
Am I missing something, but how can this be the case if most people have been vaccinated ?

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15 minutes ago, Lcfc82 said:

Just heard on the radio, the head of public health England has said measures need to be tougher this summer than last and that restrictions will still be in place next winter. 
Am I missing something, but how can this be the case if most people have been vaccinated ?

Literally no idea. Surely 2 years on we should be in a better place with treatments now. The narrative was always protecting the health service, it now seems to have moved with very little explanation as to why.

 

Following the Australian model might be right but I wish they'd explain why its changing.

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22 minutes ago, Lcfc82 said:

Just heard on the radio, the head of public health England has said measures need to be tougher this summer than last and that restrictions will still be in place next winter. 
Am I missing something, but how can this be the case if most people have been vaccinated ?

 

I understand that from a purely medical or epidemiological perspective that might be the way forward. With these scientists that's their job and it's their drum so we shouldn't be surprised that they bang it. I don't agree with people directing abuse at them because really that's their professional prerogative. 

 

It's for the government, our civilian leadership, to take all aspects into account, and say thanks for the advice but that is unnecessary and unworkable and we'll be taking another path. Nobody seriously thinks the government has 'followed the science' throughout still do they? That illusion was shattered after 3 months.

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15 minutes ago, Lcfc82 said:

Just heard on the radio, the head of public health England has said measures need to be tougher this summer than last and that restrictions will still be in place next winter. 
Am I missing something, but how can this be the case if most people have been vaccinated ?

Because they're setting us up for a fall again, you can feel that something's not quite as rosy as is being painted. Maybe these vaccines don't work very well against all these variants and the powers that be are setting the seeds for an almighty come down and hoping the modified vaccines will work when they come on-line towards the end of the year.

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11 hours ago, Chocolate Teapot said:

I literally don't understand anything anymore. Struggling to keep up with what is going on other than knowing this is going to drag on for a long time. One of the scientists said today face masks will be here forever as if there's never been a pandemic before - surely pandemics teach us that they do pass eventually or have I completely missed something?

It takes on average 5-6 days for symptoms to show after infection and then a further 7 days on average to be hospitalised after infection.

 

I would say, give it a week or two.

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I'm happy to see a couple of months like last summer where we could stay over at friends and family and go into cafes, pubs and restaurants with screens up between the tables, while everyone gets their jabs.

 

But surely it's got to be approaching normal in September when everyone's had their jabs?

 

Will be interesting to see how Isreal does though when they plan to reopen their economy next month.

Edited by Sampson
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18 hours ago, David Guiza said:

With good reason. 

I can just picture Hancock, Johnson, Rees-Mogg and co sat around a room throwing ideas around and Hancock getting a pat on the back when he declares '10 year prison sentencing for COVID holiday liars' to a chorus of 'Yes and ho'.

If it makes you feel better, imagine away.  Of course what actually happened is they found an existing law they think they can apply, then told the press the maximum sentence for that law knowing full well it would make headlines and appeal to the seemingly more than 50% of the population who are madly pro every restriction on our liberty.  I am increasingly dismayed at the people who would continue this lockdown shite after pretty much everyone at risk is vaccinated.  They should be unlocking now!

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13 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

If it makes you feel better, imagine away.  Of course what actually happened is they found an existing law they think they can apply, then told the press the maximum sentence for that law knowing full well it would make headlines and appeal to the seemingly more than 50% of the population who are madly pro every restriction on our liberty.  I am increasingly dismayed at the people who would continue this lockdown shite after pretty much everyone at risk is vaccinated.  They should be unlocking now!

My wife’s cousin is one of the Lockdown forever types. She’s all over the Leicestershire Live comments every time they run a COVID story calling for more restrictions and saluting the Police when someone is fined.  Thing is she has been on full pay since March without working and her lazy boyfriend has been on the sick forever pretty much.  she’s quite content spending all day on Social Media and he is happy playing his XBox for 14 hours a day.  This new normal suits them perfectly.  I fear she’s not in a tiny minority.

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3 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Guess it will get to a point when first jabs decrease and second jabs increase, maybe from early March onwards?

Yeah, i mean technically we should be seeing 200-400 second jabs a day. I imagine it'll look like a 50-50 split. The younger the people get the easier they're going to find it to book and get to appointments I imagine, so the daily vaccine numbers will be huge in a couple of months you'd expect.

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10 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Guess it will get to a point when first jabs decrease and second jabs increase, maybe from early March onwards?

We only really got into our stride from week starting 10th jan so second jabs will become significant from beginning of April.  I think we may get some moderna vaccine supplies in April which may help, we ideally need to be doing 1m a day, half being second doses.

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29 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

If it makes you feel better, imagine away.  Of course what actually happened is they found an existing law they think they can apply, then told the press the maximum sentence for that law knowing full well it would make headlines and appeal to the seemingly more than 50% of the population who are madly pro every restriction on our liberty.  I am increasingly dismayed at the people who would continue this lockdown shite after pretty much everyone at risk is vaccinated.  They should be unlocking now!

It was a Thick of It reference, Jon. I thought the huge GIF of the exact scene I referred to within said episode would be ample evidence of that.

 

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Certainly they will have to loosen the restrictions once the elderly and vulnerable have had their 2nd vaccine.

 

People won’t want to be subjected to more lockdowns otherwise they might think what was the point ?

 

I think we might go back to the tier systems whilst everyone else gets vaccinated and then work from

there on a long term plan .

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4 hours ago, Nalis said:

Guess it will get to a point when first jabs decrease and second jabs increase, maybe from early March onwards?

 

4 hours ago, filbertway said:

Yeah, i mean technically we should be seeing 200-400 second jabs a day. I imagine it'll look like a 50-50 split. The younger the people get the easier they're going to find it to book and get to appointments I imagine, so the daily vaccine numbers will be huge in a couple of months you'd expect.

 

4 hours ago, Stivo said:

We only really got into our stride from week starting 10th jan so second jabs will become significant from beginning of April.  I think we may get some moderna vaccine supplies in April which may help, we ideally need to be doing 1m a day, half being second doses.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55857530

 

This might make a difference regarding the second jabs, as we can concentrate everything that's open currently on second jabs, and then open up new centres for the younger, the more fit and more able, who can go in and out quickly whilst obviously only needing the one jab.

 

Not sure how close they are to releasing that vaccine though, but if it's around the end of March or start of April, we could probably vaccinate hundreds of thousands of fresh people every day with it.

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