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Coronavirus Thread

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1 hour ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

I had you down as late 20s early 30s!

 

Maybe you need to grow up if you're 45+ lol

 

30 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Make that 2 of us. I definitely had Panini in the same boat as me. Early 30s and not quite ready to let go of the 20s lol

 

I'll take those comments as a plus point 😛

 

Always been a late bloomer me. At 21 I must've looked about 16/ 17. At 30 looked fresh-faced early 20s. Now in 40s I like to kid myself that I'm some eligible bachelor in his mid 30s...albeit an 'eligible bachelor' with teenage kids 😛

 

Back.to topic, I'll hang fire and let all the proper over 45s rush to the front of the vaccine queue. I wouldn't want to stand in the way of their elderly, feeble bodies being protected 

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10 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

 

 

 

People thought it was bad here, Christ. 

It was a matter of time before it got real grips on the subcontinent. The lack of a superb healthcare system and cramped living conditions make it fertile grounds. 

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53 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

 

I'll take those comments as a plus point 😛

 

Always been a late bloomer me. At 21 I must've looked about 16/ 17. At 30 looked fresh-faced early 20s. Now in 40s I like to kid myself that I'm some eligible bachelor in his mid 30s...albeit an 'eligible bachelor' with teenage kids 😛

 

Back.to topic, I'll hang fire and let all the proper over 45s rush to the front of the vaccine queue. I wouldn't want to stand in the way of their elderly, feeble bodies being protected 

Take those comments as a compliment.

 

Not being mature for your age is a lot more fun than being a serious bore. At least thats what I tell myself anyway!

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41 minutes ago, Nalis said:

Take those comments as a compliment.

 

Not being mature for your age is a lot more fun than being a serious bore. At least thats what I tell myself anyway!

Absolutely, no offence intended on my part :D

 

In other news I just read this quote from Johnson on the BBC site. Whether or not it's the case, they clearly believe that the majority of the population are brain dead. Of course lockdown is the reason for the drops in infections and deaths. The vaccinations are just going to *hopefully* flatten any future curves so we don't require restrictions to do that.

 

"People don't, I think, appreciate that it's the lockdown that has been overwhelmingly important in delivering this improvement in the pandemic and the figures that we've seen," he says.

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5 hours ago, filbertway said:

Absolutely, no offence intended on my part :D

 

In other news I just read this quote from Johnson on the BBC site. Whether or not it's the case, they clearly believe that the majority of the population are brain dead. Of course lockdown is the reason for the drops in infections and deaths. The vaccinations are just going to *hopefully* flatten any future curves so we don't require restrictions to do that.

 

"People don't, I think, appreciate that it's the lockdown that has been overwhelmingly important in delivering this improvement in the pandemic and the figures that we've seen," he says.

He's a brilliant liar.  Brilliant.  Saw the clip earlier, the only thing missing was his big red bus!

 

I'm sure he's aware of seasonality traits but chooses to ignore them.

 

image.png.7852c9070e3a1cf648660e37a48650f1.png

 

The vaccine has no doubt helped reduce the curve more quickly but the real test of vaccines will hit when seasonality rears its head again come late September.  As for the current lockdown, it was introduced post peak, roughly one week later.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

As for the current lockdown, it was introduced post peak, roughly one week later.

No it wasn't. The second wave of coronavirus deaths in the UK hit a peak in the third week of January 2021 following a sustained rise since early Autumn. The third and current lockdown came into effect from January 6th 2021. Since this peak, deaths have fallen by 92% as a combined result of lockdown restrictions and more recently, the building momentum and lag of the vaccination programme. 

 

According to PHE, by 10 January, more than a third of people aged 80 and over in England had received at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine. In comparison, fewer than 3% of under-80s in England had received a first dose by this stage. It takes two to three weeks for immunity to build after vaccination and then a further two to three weeks between a coronavirus infection and death from the virus so data from mid-February at the earliest would provide the first tentative indication that the vaccination programme was starting to have an effect.

 

Do you do this for comedy value?

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8 minutes ago, Line-X said:

No it wasn't. The second wave of coronavirus deaths in the UK hit a peak in the third week of January 2021 following a sustained rise since early Autumn. The third and current lockdown came into effect from January 6th 2021. Since this peak, deaths have fallen by 92% as a combined result of lockdown restrictions and more recently, the building momentum and lag of the vaccination programme. 

 

According to PHE, by 10 January, more than a third of people aged 80 and over in England had received at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine. In comparison, fewer than 3% of under-80s in England had received a first dose by this stage. It takes two to three weeks for immunity to build after vaccination and then a further two to three weeks between a coronavirus infection and death from the virus so data from mid-February at the earliest would provide the first tentative indication that the vaccination programme was starting to have an effect.

 

Do you do this for comedy value?

No, he goes off and listens to his conspiracy theorist YouTube experts, then comes back here like Moses bearing the tablets of stone, fully convinced that he knows something that the real scientists don’t.

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21 minutes ago, Line-X said:

No it wasn't. The second wave of coronavirus deaths in the UK hit a peak in the third week of January 2021 following a sustained rise since early Autumn. The third and current lockdown came into effect from January 6th 2021. Since this peak, deaths have fallen by 92% as a combined result of lockdown restrictions and more recently, the building momentum and lag of the vaccination programme. 

 

According to PHE, by 10 January, more than a third of people aged 80 and over in England had received at least one dose of a covid-19 vaccine. In comparison, fewer than 3% of under-80s in England had received a first dose by this stage. It takes two to three weeks for immunity to build after vaccination and then a further two to three weeks between a coronavirus infection and death from the virus so data from mid-February at the earliest would provide the first tentative indication that the vaccination programme was starting to have an effect.

 

Do you do this for comedy value?

 

Perhaps you should refer to the case rate before jumping on the death rate?  I can provide the data but you do seem to take enjoyment in responding to my posts.  

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This South Africa variant outbreak in London was seeded by an individual who travelled from Africa in February. It honestly boggles my mind that this is still happening. Even if a 'green' country they need pre and post flight tests so how were they missed? For me they should scrap the traffic light system and have a blanket very strict policy for every country in the world - i.e. full self funded 10 day hotel quarantine. We've sacrificed so so much to get the virus levels down to a very low level over 3 to 4 months. 

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2 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

Perhaps you should refer to the case rate before jumping on the death rate?  

Perhaps you should specify.

 

And wrong again - It was announced on January 6th that number of new daily confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK had topped 60,000 for the first time since the pandemic started. The number of new daily cases had consistently been above 50,000 since 29 December. The UK's worst day in terms of cases was January 8, when 68,053 positive tests were counted. The sharp fall in cases and hospitalisations coincides both with the end of the festive period, and the introduction of national lockdowns. The (third) lockdown was reimposed following the relaxation over the Christmas period. 

 

At the point of instituting the lockdown, the case rate was two days off its peak. 

 

7 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

I can provide the data but you do seem to take enjoyment in responding to my posts.  

No, you can cherry pick the data and subsequently infer your own interpretation based upon personal opinion, confirmation bias and your ongoing agenda if you wish. I prefer to listen to the science. 

 

I take no enjoyment responding to your posts - it's a necessary chore if I'm honest, particularly since you are so prone throughout this thread to perpetuating false statements, misinformation and favouring opinion over fact. Nothing personal, I enjoy your content elsewhere on this forum and I commend you for remaining civil with me.

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1 minute ago, DennisNedry said:

This South Africa variant outbreak in London was seeded by an individual who travelled from Africa in February. It honestly boggles my mind that this is still happening. Even if a 'green' country they need pre and post flight tests so how were they missed? For me they should scrap the traffic light system and have a blanket very strict policy for every country in the world - i.e. full self funded 10 day hotel quarantine. We've sacrificed so so much to get the virus levels down to a very low level over 3 to 4 months. 

Lax quarantine procedures and the opening up of international travel perhaps the biggest concern in the oncoming months. 

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44 minutes ago, Line-X said:

Perhaps you should specify.

 

And wrong again - It was announced on January 6th that number of new daily confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK had topped 60,000 for the first time since the pandemic started. The number of new daily cases had consistently been above 50,000 since 29 December. The UK's worst day in terms of cases was January 8, when 68,053 positive tests were counted. The sharp fall in cases and hospitalisations coincides both with the end of the festive period, and the introduction of national lockdowns. The (third) lockdown was reimposed following the relaxation over the Christmas period. 

 

At the point of instituting the lockdown, the case rate was two days off its peak. 

 

No, you can cherry pick the data and subsequently infer your own interpretation based upon personal opinion, confirmation bias and your ongoing agenda if you wish. I prefer to listen to the science. 

 

I take no enjoyment responding to your posts - it's a necessary chore if I'm honest, particularly since you are so prone throughout this thread to perpetuating false statements, misinformation and favouring opinion over fact. Nothing personal, I enjoy your content elsewhere on this forum and I commend you for remaining civil with me.

 

It would appear that cases did just peak after the 3rd lockdown was imposed so in that regard perhaps I was a little hasty on just referring to cases at that particular point in time.  It's not as simple as that though.  This guys work is worth a read: https://www.maths.ed.ac.uk/~swood34/

 

Also, the 2nd lockdown imposed throughout December did nothing to the case figures at all, they continued to increase despite the lockdown measures introduced.  There's no correlation between the two at all.  I can't remember the differences between lockdown 2 and 3 but 3 was hugely advantageous over 2 as cases suddenly dropped?  I'm not buying it.  

 

Please add your thoughts on seasonality.  You haven't commented on those.

 

I still think it's concerning for Boris to jump to lockdown 3 as the sole reason for the success in reducing numbers.  Should numbers rise again, he's leaving the door wide open to introducing lockdowns again because "they've worked".  It's a never ending cycle until mass testing ends imo.  He's hardly acknowledging the role the vaccine is playing either.  Boundaries constantly changing, his decision making should be scrutinised.

 

Likewise you won't get any uncivil comments from me, no chance of that.  Keep the debate going!  :thumbup:

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I assume boosters for the Brazil and SA variants are already being worked on.

 

Feels inevitable that they'll make their way to our shores and spread at some point.

 

If another dominant yet harmless variant could appear soon, thatd be superb

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/quarter-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/

 

'Almost a quarter of registered Covid deaths are people who are not dying from the disease, new official figures show, as the Government was urged to move faster with the roadmap in the light of increasingly positive data.  

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 23 per cent of coronavirus deaths registered are now people who have died "with" the virus rather than ‘from’ an infection.

This means that while the person who died will have tested positive for Covid, that was not the primary cause of their death recorded on the death certificate.'

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1 hour ago, WigstonWanderer said:

No, he goes off and listens to his conspiracy theorist YouTube experts, then comes back here like Moses bearing the tablets of stone, fully convinced that he knows something that the real scientists don’t.

Bizarre post 

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9 minutes ago, filbertway said:

I assume boosters for the Brazil and SA variants are already being worked on.

 

Feels inevitable that they'll make their way to our shores and spread at some point.

 

If another dominant yet harmless variant could appear soon, thatd be superb

If I've understood the Nextstrain data correctly, the Kent variant (or clade) 20I/501YV1 is increasing its global share by roughly 3% per week, and will soon account for over 50% of cases globally, so perhaps we should be as fearful of our own variant returning as we are about the two other main variants. Having said that, it seems that the Brazil variant is the most lethal. Interestingly, the variant which began in Denmark last year (and blamed on mink) has now disappeared completely.

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20 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/quarter-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/

 

'Almost a quarter of registered Covid deaths are people who are not dying from the disease, new official figures show, as the Government was urged to move faster with the roadmap in the light of increasingly positive data.  

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 23 per cent of coronavirus deaths registered are now people who have died "with" the virus rather than ‘from’ an infection.

This means that while the person who died will have tested positive for Covid, that was not the primary cause of their death recorded on the death certificate.'

Hasn’t this been the case since very early on and the reason we have such a high death toll compared to other parts of Europe 

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22 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/13/quarter-covid-deaths-not-caused-virus/

 

'Almost a quarter of registered Covid deaths are people who are not dying from the disease, new official figures show, as the Government was urged to move faster with the roadmap in the light of increasingly positive data.  

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 23 per cent of coronavirus deaths registered are now people who have died "with" the virus rather than ‘from’ an infection.

This means that while the person who died will have tested positive for Covid, that was not the primary cause of their death recorded on the death certificate.'

Care to copy and paste the full article for the cheapskates among us? lol

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Just now, yorkie1999 said:

Hasn’t this been the case since very early on and the reason we have such a high death toll compared to other parts of Europe 

Unlikely, considering our excess deaths are higher than pretty much every other country in Europe.

 

In fact there are some European countries that appear to be overcounting.

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5 minutes ago, DennisNedry said:

Care to copy and paste the full article for the cheapskates among us? lol

Double click refresh on the article (not instant double click but a tiny delay), takes a while but eventually you'll get used to it, it allows you to beat the paywall and you can read the full article. I'll let you try it out to get the hang of it, that way you'll learn, if I just pasted the article you'd never learn :D

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8 hours ago, filbertway said:

Absolutely, no offence intended on my part :D

 

In other news I just read this quote from Johnson on the BBC site. Whether or not it's the case, they clearly believe that the majority of the population are brain dead. Of course lockdown is the reason for the drops in infections and deaths. The vaccinations are just going to *hopefully* flatten any future curves so we don't require restrictions to do that.

 

"People don't, I think, appreciate that it's the lockdown that has been overwhelmingly important in delivering this improvement in the pandemic and the figures that we've seen," he says.

It's his way of justifying this lockdown. 

 

When you have a lockdown and the vaccine running side by side he can't be certain the falling rates are a result of one thing more than another.

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35 minutes ago, String fellow said:

If I've understood the Nextstrain data correctly, the Kent variant (or clade) 20I/501YV1 is increasing its global share by roughly 3% per week, and will soon account for over 50% of cases globally, so perhaps we should be as fearful of our own variant returning as we are about the two other main variants. Having said that, it seems that the Brazil variant is the most lethal. Interestingly, the variant which began in Denmark last year (and blamed on mink) has now disappeared completely.

The more transmissible Kent strain was responsible for the apparent lack of success of the nov lockdown, especially further south 

 

whilst we suffered badly from this through nov, dec and moreso January, the rest of the world is now catching up. In Areas where the Brazilian and s African variants are primary, the Kent strain is not taking over but other parts which have done well to keep those s hemispheric strains out are now suffering with the Kent strain assisting in encouraging faster transmission of the virus. 

 

whilst we pat ourselves in the back, epidemiologists will be nervous that a slow uptake of vaccination by the under 50’s due to vaccine concerns coupled with a relaxation of lockdown will encourage an increase in cases that could lead to another mutation which becomes a problem for us and globally. Let’s hope it remains just nerves and doesn’t come to fruition. 

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