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Aus Fox

End of Season Permutations

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Towards the end of the season, every season the same questions pop up on here; what if this, what if that...

So here goes firstly Europe. 

The maximum number of English teams in UEFA competitions is seven.

 

UEFA Champions League (UCL) qualification

In normal circumstances, four UCL places are given to English clubs who fulfil the following criteria:

  • The top four teams in the Premier League qualify for the group stage proper.
  • Liverpool are certain as Champions
  • Man City are currently banned from Europe next season, but are appealing with results expected on Monday.
UEFA Europa League (UEL) qualification

In normal circumstances, three UEL places are given to English clubs who fulfil the following criteria:

  • The fifth-placed team in the Premier League qualify for the group stage proper.
  • The winners of the FA Cup qualify for the group stage proper.
  • 4 teams left in:
  • Manchester United, Chelsea if they finish top 6 7th spot will get Europa League Sport (8th if Man City are banned)
    Man City if they win and are banned as above
  • Arsenal will get automatic group stage spot if they win the cup.
  • The EFL Cup winners Are Man City, who will either be banned from European competition or qualified for CL, meaning 6th place in the league will now qualify for the 2nd qualifying round. (7th if Man City are banned).
  • Lowest ranked team will go through the qualifying rounds, unless that is the FA Cup winners who go straight to the group stage
How does winning UCL/UEL affect qualification?

Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's competition regardless of their league finishing position.  Currently Man City who are out of Europe all together or Chelsea (3-0 down after the 1st leg against Bayern) are the only chance of this happening.

Should a Premier League club win the UEFA Europa League they will automatically qualify for the group stage of next season's UEFA Champions League regardless of their league finishing position. (Wolves or Man Utd)

A maximum of five Premier League teams are eligible for UEFA Champions League qualification.

In the event that a Premier League club win the UEFA Champions League and another win the UEFA Europa League and neither of these clubs finish in the top four of the Premier League, the club lying fourth in the table will drop into the UEFA Europa League group stage.

Chelsea winning CL and Wolves winning EL and Man City getting their van over turned will result in only top 3 in the league qualifying for CL.

If Man Utd win the EL and finish in the CL spots no extra spot will be given in the CL to a lower ranked English club.

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Basically this means that 4th might not get CL. Highly unlikely scenario as i think Man city ban will be upheld, and can't see Chelsea overturning their first leg deficit so fifth still looking good for CL spot in all reality. 

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Think they will get the ban reduced to one year that way both sides come outta it with something. Don’t think it will get overturned totally 

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5 minutes ago, Abrasive fox said:

I think man city will get out of it. All the noises man city are making are really confident about this.

They broke the rules end of. Unless they can get out of it on some sort of technicality, they will have to take their punishment. There is precedent set, but they will no doubt be trying to point to Chelsea in that they only got a transfer ban (albeit for a different offence so that will not really hold water). Uefa will be sweating though, because if it gets overturned they will have lost all authority over their own competition rules and then the floodgates will open. The CAS is unlikely to let that happen, (unless as stated Man city have some legal technicality up their sleeve) as this would then have a knock on effect for all other sports bringing the various governing bodies authority into dispute.

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10 minutes ago, Abrasive fox said:

I think man city will get out of it. All the noises man city are making are really confident about this.

I din't think UEFA can be seen to lose this if they are to keep any credablitly in FFP, I think they will have a one year ban. 

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I wouldn’t be surprised if the ban gets overturned....... this is Man City we’re talking about. There’s probably a dodgy deal going down in a bar somewhere in Russia. 

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Man City will have the ban suspended for a year or two with some transfer restrictions.  They will be in the Champions League next season.  

 

We need to finish top 4, end of. Whilst we are looking nervously over our shoulder at Utd, Chelsea are just a point ahead. Their final games are not massively dissimilar to ours - they have Sheff Utd, Norwich, Liverpool and Wolves.  No reason why we can't catch them.

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11 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the ban gets overturned....... this is Man City we’re talking about. There’s probably a dodgy deal going down in a bar somewhere in Russia. 

What has Russia go to do with it?

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20 minutes ago, coolhandfox said:

I din't think UEFA can be seen to lose this if they are to keep any credablitly in FFP, I think they will have a one year ban. 

It’s not UEFA’s decision. UEFA nearly lost their case on AC Milan with CAS. They deemed their punishment of a ban excessive and Milan in the end agreed a year ban rather than financial punishments.
 

I was confident then I read the details of that case. I’m not so sure now 

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38 minutes ago, Abrasive fox said:

I think man city will get out of it. All the noises man city are making are really confident about this.

I think it will be reduced to a year

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43 minutes ago, Abrasive fox said:

I think man city will get out of it. All the noises man city are making are really confident about this.

Yeah but they want to keep players, sponsors and fans happy. I wouldn't trust anything they say because they have nothing to lose by lying about being confident.

 

I think general consensus seems to be that it'll be a 1 year ban but we can only wait and see.

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Like most, I've no idea what the outcome of the Man City appeal will be.....but surely UEFA won't have allowed themselves to be in a position of handing out a 2-year ban and then having to completely overturn it?

They'd be in danger of losing all authority. But is there still any risk of the decision being delayed by a season or will the impending ruling be final, whatever it is?

 

At least there's now little chance of us falling out of the top 5 after the Arsenal draw and Wolves' defeats.

Due to our goal difference, one more win for us would mean that Wolves, Sheff Utd or Spurs would have to win all 4-5 of their games to overtake us & Arsenal or Burnley couldn't do so.

 

Looking at the remaining fixtures, we probably have a better chance of finishing above Chelsea than Man Utd, if we do need top 4:

- Chelsea: Sheff Utd (A), Norwich (H), Liverpool (A), Wolves (H)

- Man Utd: Villa (A), Southampton (H), Palace (A), West Ham (H), Leicester (A)

 

I'd love to see Utd cock up at Villa tonight, but given ability, form & motivation, I'd expect them to win all 4 before they play us. If so, we'd have to beat Bournemouth, Sheff Utd & Spurs to be ahead of them going into the final match....

 

But as for Chelsea.....Norwich should be an easy win & Wolves likely to have nothing to play for on the last day, but Sheff Utd and Liverpool still have plenty of motivation. 

If Chelsea only get 7 points from those 4 games, we'd finish above them on goal difference by getting 8 points......e.g. win the next 2 and then either 1 more win or 2 draws v. Spurs & Man Utd...... :fc:

 

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9 hours ago, Aus Fox said:

Chelsea winning CL and Wolves winning EL and Man City getting their van over turned will result in only top 3 in the league qualifying for CL.

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Us dropping a stinker and drawing or even losing at Bournemouth is just as, if not more likely, than any of these permutations.

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33 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

What has Russia go to do with it?

Sounded more dramatic.

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8 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

Us dropping a stinker and drawing or even losing at Bournemouth is just as, if not more likely, than any of these permutations.

This is the most likely i agree lol

 

 

 

Edited by les-tah

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1 hour ago, Abrasive fox said:

I think man city will get out of it. All the noises man city are making are really confident about this.

Me too. 

 

You can't say what punishment will be before any investigation has taken place. 

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Just now, Ashley said:

Me too. 

 

You can't say what punishment will be before any investigation has taken place. 

It's not an investigation.

 

Man City have been given a two year ban, we're awaiting on the result of Man City's appeal.

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I suspect UEFA gave them a 2 year ban knowing tMan C. would appeal and it could then get reduced to 1 year.

 

However Man City have enough £££££s to bargain a fine instead of a ban or plus a suspended ban.

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5 minutes ago, AKCJ said:

It's not an investigation.

 

Man City have been given a two year ban, we're awaiting on the result of Man City's appeal.

Think you missed the point there? Uefa have openly wanted to ban Man City for ages. 

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3 minutes ago, davieG said:

I suspect UEFA gave them a 2 year ban knowing tMan C. would appeal and it could then get reduced to 1 year.

 

However Man City have enough £££££s to bargain a fine instead of a ban or plus a suspended ban.

CAS won't be bought like that though, either UEFA really have stretched themselves to make a point here in the hope that the appeal wouldn't happen or they've tried to make an example of Man City and have every right to do so, CAS may view it as harsh and therefore reduce it to a years ban but to overturn it would be very surprising and set a more dangerous precedent than UEFA's supposed harsh penalties they've handed Man City.

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Just now, Ashley said:

Think you missed the point there? Uefa have openly wanted to ban Man City for ages. 

The point is that UEFA have banned Man City.

 

As far as they're concerned, Man City have a 2 yar ban from European competitions.

 

Man City have submitted an appeal to the CAS and we'll be hearing the result of that appeal next Monday.

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