Qualification for Champions' League & Europa League

[Yes N'Didi 762]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

The mathematicians will let me know if I’ve got this wrong but there are a limited combination of results possible on Sunday 

 

For Chelsea, 87% of these get them CL (7 out of 8)

for yanited, 75% of these get them CL. (6 out of 8 ) 

For us, 50% of these get us CL

 

 

Surely there’s 9?

 

1. CHE W LEI W MAN L yes

2. CHE W LEI D MAN D no

3. CHE W LEI L MAN W no

4. CHE D LEI W MAN L yes

5. CHE D LEI D MAN D no

6. CHE D LEI L MAN W no

7. CHE L LEI W MAN L yes

8. CHE L LEI D MAN D yes

9. CHE L LEI L MAN W no

 

We secure CL in four out of nine outcomes.

Edited 23 July 2020 by Yes N'Didi

[shailen 2,079]

2 games, 6 possible results. Assume all outcomes are equally likely. 

 

Chelsea, 4 outcomes would guarantee  them CL and if they lose they need us to lose as well. 4/6 + (1/3*1/3) = 78%

 

United, 3 outcomes would guarantee them CL but if they lose they need Chelsea to lose as well. 3/6 + (1/3*1/3) = 61%

 

Leicester, 1 outcome would guarantee us CL but if we draw, we need Chelsea to lose. 1/6 + (1/3*1/3) = 28%

[Bert 6,849]

31 minutes ago, Yes N'Didi said:

Surely there’s 9?

 

1. CHE W LEI W MAN L yes

2. CHE W LEI D MAN D no

3. CHE W LEI L MAN W no

4. CHE D LEI W MAN L yes

5. CHE D LEI D MAN D no

6. CHE D LEI L MAN W no

7. CHE L LEI W MAN L yes

8. CHE L LEI D MAN D yes

9. CHE L LEI L MAN W no

 

We secure CL in four out of nine outcomes.

44.4% chance. 

[nnickn 196]

 

Chelsea 85%

ManU     77%

City         38%

 

 

Going into last day, not a City fan alive who would not have settled for top 4 odds of these proportions.

 

It's the brilliant first half of the season that has soured the fan base.

One win is all we need for our 2nd most successful season of all time.

[mozartfox 5,373]

1 hour ago, Bert said:

44.4% chance. 

0% with a back 3 of Wes/Benno/Evans

[Bert 6,849]

32 minutes ago, mozartfox said:

0% with a back 3 of Wes/Benno/Evans

What must it be like to wake up miserable every day 

[mozartfox 5,373]

48 minutes ago, Bert said:

What must it be like to wake up miserable every day 

Sorry to here that.  Hope things become less miserable for you soon.

[lestajigs 1,069]

59 minutes ago, Bert said:

What must it be like to wake up miserable every day 

He absolutely has a valid point though, with wes and bennet in a 3 man defence against there front 3, doesn’t fill me with confidence 

[HighPeakFox 12,202]

Can I just suggest that those that have given up hope find something else to do between now and after the match, since it would appear there's no chance, and thus you can save yourselves a lot of heartache and negativity by going and doing something more wholesome and constructive with your lives than being gloomy here.

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo 7,914]

8 minutes ago, lestajigs said:

He absolutely has a valid point though, with wes and bennet in a 3 man defence against there front 3, doesn’t fill me with confidence 

Looking at what happened in the Championship last night, let's be a Swansea, who'd have put money on them finishing where they did? Just hope the squad is fired up, if they all want it that much it should make up for a lack of ability

 

And if we don't win, there's every chance we draw. Wolves are going to want to secure 6th place so I would hope they do everything they can to beat Chelsea

[LCFCbwoi 153]

It might have been mentioned earlier in the thread but couldn’t see it...

 

What happens if united win the europa league? Does their CL spot go to 5th place or does it not matter as they qualified in the domestic season anyway?

[Alf Bentley 11,222]

12 minutes ago, LCFCbwoi said:

It might have been mentioned earlier in the thread but couldn’t see it...

 

What happens if united win the europa league? Does their CL spot go to 5th place or does it not matter as they qualified in the domestic season anyway?

 

If they finish 3rd or 4th, it makes no difference and whoever is 5th ends up in the Europa League.

 

If they finish 5th, it means they'd be 1 of 5 English clubs in the Champions' League - but England would have only 2 teams in the Europa League.

[Tom12345 1,321]

On 23/07/2020 at 15:33, Bert said:

44.4% chance. 

No. It should not be based purely on scenarios, but also on ability, tactics, performance and luck. Based on our recent dismal run and Man U’s form, it is 44.4% x 1/4 = 11.1%.  Still better than zero.

Edited 24 July 2020 by Tom12345

[st albans fox 8,755]

13 minutes ago, Tom12345 said:

No. It should not be based purely on scenarios, but also on ability, tactics, performance and luck. Based on our recent dismal run and Man U’s form, it is 44.4% x 1/4 = 11.1%.  Still better than zero.

if you don’t do it this way then it becomes subjective and dependant on so many things. That’s why people have done it this way 

[Ric Flair 23,047]

I'd love a fly on the wall documentary with Rodgers and our players based on this week, be fascinating to see what he has in store for this. Tactics have to be spot on, mentality has to be perfect which we have really struggled with in high pressure games. I really hope Morgan, Vardy and Schmeichel stand up and take the lead on that front this week. If I were Rodgers i'd be using them and the respect from their fellow players to fire them up this week and stay well out of that side of things. I'm looking for Tielemans and Praet to tap in to the pressure they must have felt when 17/18 at Anderlecht and winning titles, Evans has been there and won things. There is a core of this team that Man Utd can only dream about in what they've achieved before and if there's one game I hope we can take our chances and limit mistakes is this Sunday.

[The whole world smiles 5,119]

23 hours ago, lestajigs said:

He absolutely has a valid point though, with wes and bennet in a 3 man defence against there front 3, doesn’t fill me with confidence 

It doesn't fill anyone with any confidence, people aren't daft. But What are we going to do magic some new derenders out of thin air? 

 

3 of our regular 4 starting defenders are injured or suspended and fuchs is out also. 

 

It doesn't take an expert football mind to realise Wes, Bennet and Evans going against Martial, Rashford, Greenwood is going to be a very big ask.

 

Stranger things have happened we beat a Man United featuring van persie, Falcao, De Maria and Rooney with Morgan, Moore and Konchesky at the back and Dean Hammond holding in midfield. So it not a 0% chance far from it

 

It is what it is. We are an outside bet. But we are Leicester City that's how it's always been and that's how we like it. I'm buzzing for Sunday. What's the point of switching on your tele on if you don't belive in the team and the club just a little bit? 

[fuchsntf 6,056]

On 19/07/2020 at 18:41, LestaAl said:

It’s all just a crap end to the season...

Its a brilliant end to the season....Time for young Boys to become men...Time for the weak hearted,to Show some balls,

Time for that mental strength to be tested....

Winners Take all,One game shootout...These are the situations that makes the various Top leagues....This is sport at its best...!!!

Edited 24 July 2020 by fuchsntf

[Swiss_tony 163]

On 23/07/2020 at 01:04, nnickn said:

 

Chelsea 85%

ManU     77%

City         38%

 

 

Going into last day, not a City fan alive who would not have settled for top 4 odds of these proportions.

 

It's the brilliant first half of the season that has soured the fan base.

One win is all we need for our 2nd most successful season of all time.

2nd most successful premier league season ....

[lestajigs 1,069]

11 hours ago, The whole world smiles said:

It doesn't fill anyone with any confidence, people aren't daft. But What are we going to do magic some new derenders out of thin air? 

 

3 of our regular 4 starting defenders are injured or suspended and fuchs is out also. 

 

It doesn't take an expert football mind to realise Wes, Bennet and Evans going against Martial, Rashford, Greenwood is going to be a very big ask.

 

Stranger things have happened we beat a Man United featuring van persie, Falcao, De Maria and Rooney with Morgan, Moore and Konchesky at the back and Dean Hammond holding in midfield. So it not a 0% chance far from it

 

It is what it is. We are an outside bet. But we are Leicester City that's how it's always been and that's how we like it. I'm buzzing for Sunday. What's the point of switching on your tele on if you don't belive in the team and the club just a little bit? 

Thats the the spirit!!!!!! £500 bet on Leicester to win then!  Maybe not 

[weller54 9,546]

OGS will have looked at the Spurs game and there's his tactics right in front of him!

[Costock_Fox 12,058]

It’s a shit business

[Deeg67 3,088]

13 hours ago, weller54 said:

OGS will have looked at the Spurs game and there's his tactics right in front of him!

If we're dumb enough to set up the same way, yes.

[foxinsocks 1,619]

3 minutes ago, Deeg67 said:

If we're dumb enough to set up the same way, yes.

I hope bredan has read your post. Spot on

[Poznan34 889]

538 give us a 35% chance of Top 4 finish

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

[Detroit Blues 915]

28 minutes ago, Poznan34 said:

538 give us a 35% chance of Top 4 finish

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

They just randomly reduced home field advantage by 60%. I get that there's no supporters, but I'm not sure the on field results show any decrease in home field advantage since the restart.