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US Presidential Election 2020

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50 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I reckon Nate's brain might have had more impact on those astute observations, Mac, though I've no knowledge of his drinking habits. ;)

It's a pun on his second name, though I'm guessing you knew that Alf. :D

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https://europeelects.eu/2020/10/18/polls-europeans-favour-biden-over-trump-by-wide-margins/

 

I'd hazard a guess that the figures would be similar for first world nations in other continents, too.

 

Why, I wonder, is the US such a statistical outlier among the first world nations in terms of general political viewpoints? The religious element might play a part but that's nowhere near the whole picture.

 

121974663_3522567904476414_6329874058680429622_o-1.png

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4 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

I don't believe our vote would be that one-sided.

It was a bit surprising to me too, I'd like to see how representative the poll was.

 

That being said, the trend overall isn't that surprising.

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I think that poll is accurate, but misleading. ie, There’s a difference between voting for Trump and voting for Trump’s equivalent.

 

We know that the right wing ideologues on the international stage tend to meet, band together and exchange ideas, but the right-of-centre “man on the street” won’t be thinking that way. The views there will be about that person’s own country, their own heritage and ideals. So American businessman Donald Trump’s message of “Make America Great Again” will mean an awful lot more to someone in America than to someone in France. On the other hand, remember that Marine Le Pen keeps on making the final 2 in their presidential election. If I remember correctly, she got over 14 million French votes last time out. But her message and her heritage is French; she’s the horse for that course and it means more to the voters.

 

What you can perhaps take from the poll is the relative feeling that European people have about Trump’s politics compared to each other. But even then it’s a bit murky. For instance, if we were given the direct and exclusive choice between Keir Starmer and Tommy Robinson, it wouldn’t even be a contest.

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2 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I think that poll is accurate, but misleading. ie, There’s a difference between voting for Trump and voting for Trump’s equivalent.

 

We know that the right wing ideologues on the international stage tend to meet, band together and exchange ideas, but the right-of-centre “man on the street” won’t be thinking that way. The views there will be about that person’s own country, their own heritage and ideals. So American businessman Donald Trump’s message of “Make America Great Again” will mean an awful lot more to someone in America than to someone in France. On the other hand, remember that Marine Le Pen keeps on making the final 2 in their presidential election. If I remember correctly, she got over 14 million French votes last time out. But her message and her heritage is French; she’s the horse for that course and it means more to the voters.

 

What you can perhaps take from the poll is the relative feeling that European people have about Trump’s politics compared to each other. But even then it’s a bit murky. For instance, if we were given the direct and exclusive choice between William Hague and Tommy Robinson, it wouldn’t even be a contest.

That choice is pretty close to accurate in what the Americans have right now IMO. And yet is somehow still is a contest over there.

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I don’t disagree. I’m more thinking along the lines of “Why do this poll? What does it really show?”

 

If it’s trying to demonstrate that people of one country won’t vote for the right wing nationalist politician of another country, I say that isn’t news. If they’re trying to say that Europeans are good, intelligent people who would never vote for the kind of right wing dictatorial scoundrel that America are considering so isn’t Europe wonderful / America terrible, then I think there’s far more to it than that graphic alone shows.

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21 minutes ago, Dunge said:

I don’t disagree. I’m more thinking along the lines of “Why do this poll? What does it really show?”

 

If it’s trying to demonstrate that people of one country won’t vote for the right wing nationalist politician of another country, I say that isn’t news. If they’re trying to say that Europeans are good, intelligent people who would never vote for the kind of right wing dictatorial scoundrel that America are considering so isn’t Europe wonderful / America terrible, then I think there’s far more to it than that graphic alone shows.

I agree, which tbh is why I asked the question about the US being a statistical outlier in the first place - I honestly don't know what the most pertinent factors are in place.

 

The fact is though, Le Pen is probably the closest thing Western Europe/Scandinavia has to Trump in recent times and she still didn't get much near power - lost in an utter landslide in a 1v1, though that was the final stage. So while Europe might well consider that kind of right-wing dictatorial scoundrel in numbers (look at the adulation Farage gets from some corners), they don't really come all that close to handing them the keys to the kingdom in the way the US has, which makes them different. This poll doesn't prove that distaste for neofascist nutjobs on its own, but it seems reasonably self-evident anyway.

 

(Of course, given the different representation systems the various nations have compared to each other makes things murkier still.)

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On 19/10/2020 at 14:39, Dunge said:

I don’t disagree. I’m more thinking along the lines of “Why do this poll? What does it really show?”

 

If it’s trying to demonstrate that people of one country won’t vote for the right wing nationalist politician of another country, I say that isn’t news. If they’re trying to say that Europeans are good, intelligent people who would never vote for the kind of right wing dictatorial scoundrel that America are considering so isn’t Europe wonderful / America terrible, then I think there’s far more to it than that graphic alone shows.

Italy and Netherlands being the most supportive of Trump isn’t a surprise 

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16 hours ago, leicsmac said:

A more sedate debate today, some barbs, no real fireworks.

 

Which, given the current state of play, suits Biden just fine.

Just finished watching it and simply as an exercise in adult debate it went so much better than the last one.  Kristen Walker really impressed me as a moderator, didn't allow nearly as much deviation from the discussion at hand as we saw last time.  And Biden will have done himself no harm.  If there is such a thing as an undecided voter at this point he did by far the better job of making a case for why he should be President than Trump who basically spent the whole night asking why Biden (who has never been President and who had to contend with a maliciously obstructive congress when he was Vice President for 8 years) hasn't done things that Trump (who has been President for 4 years with a fawning, supportive congress) hasn't done himself.

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They're properly going after Biden for daring to look past the oil and fracking industries. It just goes to show how screwed we are from a climate perspective. Europe can do whatever it likes but while USA and China pedal along the paths they are doing, then there's zero hope.

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1 minute ago, Lionator said:

They're properly going after Biden for daring to look past the oil and fracking industries. It just goes to show how screwed we are from a climate perspective. Europe can do whatever it likes but while USA and China pedal along the paths they are doing, then there's zero hope.

It's about the only thing from that debate that some people might be swayed against Biden on so naturally Trump and his people will be pushing it hard to try and convince people in the states heavily reliant on oil production that they'll all lose their jobs if Biden wins... but that said even Fox News are releasing articles like this which make it clear that's not the case so I wouldn't be too down about it.  Biden clearly bossed the debate. 

 

On top of that the USA's population is more aware of the dangers of climate change and the need to move towards alternative energy than you'd think so his message should chime with most voters.

Source:

PS_11.25.19_climate.energy-00-014.png?w=640

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Biden wins as of now

Even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016 about the election. Biden would still have a comfortable majority. Unless some major dirt gets dug up on Biden between now and the 9th then Biden wins.

If the polls are right trump would lose very heavily.

Edited by Fightforever
TLDW In bold
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3 hours ago, Kingleicester said:

Your right, I think Biden would actually be worse for the uk then trump tbf, isn’t Biden  pro Irish, pro European Union 

If we rid the world of the lies and corruption of power, unseen in my lifetime, I think it's worth the wait

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2 hours ago, Smudge said:

If we rid the world of the lies and corruption of power, unseen in my lifetime, I think it's worth the wait

This.

 

Biden might not be the better option for the UK in the short term, but he has much more potential to be the better option for the world (and thus the UK) in the long term. Not just because of the corruption though.

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Guest Markyblue
12 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

This.

 

Biden might not be the better option for the UK in the short term, but he has much more potential to be the better option for the world (and thus the UK) in the long term. Not just because of the corruption though.

Binden is certainly the worst option for the uk. And any thoughts of binden being better for the world are streching reality mac, against any opponent other than a hate figure like trump he would be shown to be the political lightweight he is and soundly beaten.  He is basically in many American voters views the least worst option....viva democracy.

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3 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

Binden is certainly the worst option for the uk. And any thoughts of binden being better for the world are streching reality mac, against any opponent other than a hate figure like trump he would be shown to be the political lightweight he is and soundly beaten.  He is basically in many American voters views the least worst option....viva democracy.

I'd certainly agree that Biden is far from the ideal candidate and the "least worst option".

 

But his stance on climate change as opposed to Trumps makes him, by definition, better for the world in the long term (or at least possibly better depending on what actually gets done) because that issue overshadows all others in terms of consequence outside of actual world war.

 

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Guest Markyblue
2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I'd certainly agree that Biden is far from the ideal candidate and the "least worst option".

 

But his stance on climate change as opposed to Trumps makes him, by definition, better for the world in the long term (or at least possibly better depending on what actually gets done) because that issue overshadows all others in terms of consequence outside of actual world war.

 

Yes fair point. But will his words transfer to action once behind the desk.

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An update from over the last ten days:

 

Texas - Trump + 2.2% (0.8% swing to Biden )

Ohio - Trump +0.8% (1.0% swing to Trump)

Iowa - Trump + 0.1% (0.7% swing to Biden)

Georgia -  Even (0.8% swing to Biden)

North Carolina - Biden +2.3% (0.1% swing to Trump)

Arizona - Biden + 2.7% (0.2% swing to Trump)

Florida - Biden + 3.0% (0.9% swing to Trump)

Pennsylvania - Biden + 5.7% (0.8% swing to Trump)

 

So Trump has made some small gains in places, Biden has too. With twelve days to go, can Trump really overcome the gaps and defend his lead in all of these states, as he must in order to gain even the slimmest EC majority?

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2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

An update from over the last ten days:

 

Texas - Trump + 2.2% (0.8% swing to Biden )

Ohio - Trump +0.8% (1.0% swing to Trump)

Iowa - Trump + 0.1% (0.7% swing to Biden)

Georgia -  Even (0.8% swing to Biden)

North Carolina - Biden +2.3% (0.1% swing to Trump)

Arizona - Biden + 2.7% (0.2% swing to Trump)

Florida - Biden + 3.0% (0.9% swing to Trump)

Pennsylvania - Biden + 5.7% (0.8% swing to Trump)

 

So Trump has made some small gains in places, Biden has too. With twelve days to go, can Trump really overcome the gaps and defend his lead in all of these states, as he must in order to gain even the slimmest EC majority?

Could it actually end up exciting ?  I mean is there a possibility that ‘abe Lincoln’ could actually become Lazarus!! ???

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