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Les-TA-Jon

2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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14 hours ago, Gerard said:

On the spreads there is 1pt advantage for us with a point expectation of 67.5pts for us and 66.5pts for all three of Liverpool, Chelsea and West Ham. The time to be counted is now.

 

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/uk-domestic-premier-league/group_a.beec601c-3b39-41fb-9163-0e88fd72558e/premier-league-points-2020-21

And they're right, we're still slight favourites to qualify.

 

But more than 3 dropped points from our next four would see that change dramatically.

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1 minute ago, Scanchez said:

I'd be amazed if we made top 4 now.

At least 2 of Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool will finish above us, I reckon.

Hope to God I'm wrong.

yeah surely it'll be man city, utd, chelsea and liverpool now. i don't expect WH to get it with their injures and conceding 2 o 3 a game every week.

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7 minutes ago, dannythefox said:

If Utd win Europa doesn’t 5th place get you champs league? 

Maximum of 5 places, if they finished in 5th and won the Europa they'd get an additional CL place, it doesn't drop down if that isn't the case. 

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3 minutes ago, dannythefox said:

I thought there were 5 places available or I’m l wrong? 

No team can qualify for CL finishing below 4th in the league via their league position 

 

5 teams can qualify from the prem if the fifth team does so by winning the CL or the Europa league 

 

iin the unlikely event that two teams from outside the top four win the Europa league and CL then the fourth placed team will go into the EL 

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1 minute ago, Beachyboy said:

Maximum of 5 places, if they finished in 5th and won the Europa they'd get an additional CL place, it doesn't drop down if that isn't the case. 

Seems a bit shite that. Oh well best finish 4th then 

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5 hours ago, Steve Earle said:

And they're right, we're still slight favourites to qualify.

 

But more than 3 dropped points from our next four would see that change dramatically.

Two points dropped in the next will see that change dramatically.

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Chelsea got West Ham, Man City, Arsenal, Foxes. We are 2 clear

Liverpool got Leeds and Manchester United away we are 4 clear....

West Ham got Chelsea, Everton, we are 1 clear

 

Burnley will play a key role, need Newcastle to beat West Ham at the weekend but it is wide open....if Spurs draw with Everton on Friday....Europa virtually guaranteed....obviously Champions league desirable...
But right now......need to win Sunday.....

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At some point another failure to qualify for the CL will cost us dearly. We want to be a top club but we need to take these opportunities. With finances potentially tight over the summer we really need a top four place to potentially sign a few really decent players. 
 

Fail to do it again, and we could genuinely lose one or two key players. We’ve proven in the past you ask to leave, and for the right price you’re off.

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On 11/04/2021 at 19:07, Fox in the North said:

Genuinely had the Man City and West Ham games as losses, so sad as it is, I’m not too upset (even though the performance was very disappointing!)

 

Game - Prediction - Result

Aston Villa (A) - Draw (47) - Win (49)

Arsenal (H) - Draw (48) -Loss (49)

Burnley (A) - Win (51) - Draw (50)

Brighton (A) - Win (54) - Win (53)

Sheff U (H) - Win (57) - Win (56)

Man City (H) - Lose (57) - Lose (56)

West Ham (A) - Lose (57) - Lose (56) 

West Brom (H) - Win (60)

Crystal Palace (A) - Win (63)

Southampton (A) - Draw (64)

Newcastle (H) - Win (67)

Man U (A) - Draw (68)

Chelsea (A) - Lose (68)

Spurs (H) - Win (71)

I agree with your assessment for the final 7 games except Southampton and Man utd.  Southampton I think we will win but Utd I think out of Pride might want to beat us.

Palace is the one that always worries me as they always trouble us. West Brom will apply the dark arts to try and beat us but we should have too much for them.

Spurs I don't think will have anything to play for by then and as said already Kane and others will have their eye on the Euros.

I think we'll get 4 to 5 Wins without the Chelsea game which should see us qualify.

 

All if's and but's I know, But when did we ever do things the easy way.

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1 hour ago, Pliskin said:

At some point another failure to qualify for the CL will cost us dearly. We want to be a top club but we need to take these opportunities. With finances potentially tight over the summer we really need a top four place to potentially sign a few really decent players. 
 

Fail to do it again, and we could genuinely lose one or two key players. We’ve proven in the past you ask to leave, and for the right price you’re off.

Yeah and all the "big clubs" that underperform liverpool,  spurs ,arsenal etc. Just invest more and more and it makes it even harder next year. Timing is everything I'm life.

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12 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Let's just keep in mind, that unless we slip to 7th or 8th, missing out on Champions League for a 2nd season in a row, does not constitute failure or a bad season. We will have still gone from a non-established mid-table side to finishing top 6 two years in a row. 

 

I get that psychologically, as fans, and maybe even for the squad, it would feel differently, but you've got to keep that wider perspective too. 

These are excellent points, Jon.

I'm a big fan of 'wider perspective' and I think most of our fans have that.

The noisier minority on social media / forums are generally more outspoken / angry.

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13 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Let's just keep in mind, that unless we slip to 7th or 8th, missing out on Champions League for a 2nd season in a row, does not constitute failure or a bad season. We will have still gone from a non-established mid-table side to finishing top 6 two years in a row. 

 

I get that psychologically, as fans, and maybe even for the squad, it would feel differently, but you've got to keep that wider perspective too. 

:appl:

Nice to know One is not alone....:cheers:

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21 minutes ago, UpTheLeagueFox said:

These are excellent points, Jon.

I'm a big fan of 'wider perspective' and I think most of our fans have that.

The noisier minority on social media / forums are generally more outspoken / angry.

 

Disagree, finishing top six can never be counted as too much of a failure for a club like ours but we have to look at it in context. 

 

Failure to finish in a top four spot looks terrible on the players after being 14pts clear at one stage last season and 8pts clear at one stage this season. We will get the tag of bottlers if we fail to get over the line twice in two years and probably fairly so.

 

For a club like ours to get such a huge cushion to 5th place is almost a once in a lifetime achievement, we've managed it three times in six years but how many other clubs outside the elite have ever got in that position in the last 20 years? Zero I would guess but we've done it three times.

 

Time for the players to grow some hair on their bollocks.

Edited by Gerard
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19 hours ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Let's just keep in mind, that unless we slip to 7th or 8th, missing out on Champions League for a 2nd season in a row, does not constitute failure or a bad season. We will have still gone from a non-established mid-table side to finishing top 6 two years in a row. 

 

I get that psychologically, as fans, and maybe even for the squad, it would feel differently, but you've got to keep that wider perspective too. 

Where I don’t disagree with your point, we have to start asking questions why we’ve (if it happens) have chucked in the top four twice in a row when we’ve been pretty much ever present in the top four for two seasons...... last season there were literally no excuses, we were losing to absolute fodder. At some point the mentality has to be questioned, the club are ambitious and want to sniff the balls of the “top clubs” but, at the moment we seem unable to rise to the occasions. 
 

Lose the cup semi final, and I think it’s pretty much confirmed we can’t handle big occasions. 

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2 minutes ago, Pliskin said:

Where I don’t disagree with your point, we have to start asking questions why we’ve (if it happens) have chucked in the top four twice in a row when we’ve been pretty much ever present in the top four for two seasons...... last season there were literally no excuses, we were losing to absolute fodder. At some point the mentality has to be questioned, the club are ambitious and want to sniff the balls of the “top clubs” but, at the moment we seem unable to rise to the occasions. 
 

Lose the cup semi final, and I think it’s pretty much confirmed we can’t handle big occasions. 

We lost Ricardo, Chilwell, Maddison for the run in. We had to give Thomas a debut. At the back we were playing Morgan and Bennett - partly suspension and injuries. The wobble had started before the lockdown but we were struggling with injuries and having to play awkward formations. 

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Just now, filthyfox said:

We will either finish 5th or 6th.   Recruitment in the January window has a bit to play there.

We will never be competitive unless we strengthen weakness at that time.

I hope this comes back to bite me

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Looking at Liverpool and Spurs' fixtures its really hard not to be a little pessimistic – but also looking at their performances of late, it's also conceivable they will drop points. But it's hard not to think we won't need wins against West Brom, Southampton, Palace & Newcastle to end up where we want to be as we no longer have the points buffer of any great significance to accommodate losses. 

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