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2020/21 - The Run In and Top 4 chances - an Ongoing Analysis

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While I was running earlier I was thinking about the whole European qualification scenario and it occured to me that we could finish 5th and actually not qualify for any European competition (I have a lot of time to think when running so apologies).

 

If Southampton win the FA Cup, Tottenham the League Cup and Arsenal the EL, then 5th would miss out on European football altogether. Imagine that! However, you will get some ridiculous odds if you put that treble on with the bookmakers today (in fact you could make it a quadruple with Leicester finishing outside of the Top 4).

 

I just checked what the odds of all four are and it came in just short of 500-1.

 

What if Chelsea won the CL and finish outside the Top 4 as well! Would 4th place then get no European football? I might be overthinking and getting carried away here...

Edited by KrefelderFox666
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26 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

While I was running earlier I was thinking about the whole European qualification scenario and it occured to me that we could finish 5th and actually not qualify for any European competition (I have a lot of time to think when running so apologies).

 

If Southampton win the FA Cup, Tottenham the League Cup and Arsenal the EL, then 5th would miss out on European football altogether. Imagine that! However, you will get some ridiculous odds if you put that treble on with the bookmakers today (in fact you could make it a quadruple with Leicester finishing outside of the Top 4).

 

I just checked what the odds of all four are and it came in just short of 500-1.

 

What if Chelsea won the CL and finish outside the Top 4 as well! Would 4th place then get no European football? I might be overthinking and getting carried away here...

I will have a £10 with you ;) no that not happening.

 

Chelsea winning CL changes little for us, 4th would still get CL even if Chelsea finished 5th 

Edited by coolhandfox
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At this stage of the season stats are meaningless IMO. I think mentality is key. Going on this season, Chelsea appear to have it, Liverpool have lost it, so I think it's between us and West Ham. Hate to say it but at this moment in time West Ham have more of it than we do. They play Chelsea game after next and I'm hoping they get humiliated by them. If they survive that sadly, I think they'll finish the 4th. 

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1 hour ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

While I was running earlier I was thinking about the whole European qualification scenario and it occured to me that we could finish 5th and actually not qualify for any European competition (I have a lot of time to think when running so apologies).

 

If Southampton win the FA Cup, Tottenham the League Cup and Arsenal the EL, then 5th would miss out on European football altogether. Imagine that! However, you will get some ridiculous odds if you put that treble on with the bookmakers today (in fact you could make it a quadruple with Leicester finishing outside of the Top 4).

 

I just checked what the odds of all four are and it came in just short of 500-1.

 

What if Chelsea won the CL and finish outside the Top 4 as well! Would 4th place then get no European football? I might be overthinking and getting carried away here...

Arsenal would go into the CL if they win the EL. 5th would still qualify for EL. I think the only scenario of 5th not getting EL is if Chelsea win CL and finish out of the top 4 and all your other permutations occur.

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2 hours ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

While I was running earlier I was thinking about the whole European qualification scenario and it occured to me that we could finish 5th and actually not qualify for any European competition (I have a lot of time to think when running so apologies).

 

If Southampton win the FA Cup, Tottenham the League Cup and Arsenal the EL, then 5th would miss out on European football altogether. Imagine that! However, you will get some ridiculous odds if you put that treble on with the bookmakers today (in fact you could make it a quadruple with Leicester finishing outside of the Top 4).

 

I just checked what the odds of all four are and it came in just short of 500-1.

 

What if Chelsea won the CL and finish outside the Top 4 as well! Would 4th place then get no European football? I might be overthinking and getting carried away here...

I hadn't even thought of that lol extremely unlikely though.

 

Will make our lives a lot easier if Arsenal lose tonight.

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4 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

I hadn't even thought of that lol extremely unlikely though.

 

Will make our lives a lot easier if Arsenal lose tonight.

Let's be honest, Man City will win everything anyway and we can forget about that scenario. Would be freak.

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5 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

I will have a £10 with you ;) no that not happening.

 

Chelsea winning CL changes little for us, 4th would still get CL even if Chelsea finished 5th 

I know, it was in combination with all of the other scenarios. As I said, extremely unlikely!

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1 hour ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Let's be honest, Man City will win everything anyway and we can forget about that scenario. Would be freak.

Although this could well happen and they have an incredible side and bench, on our day we can beat anyone. 

 

Obviously we have to deal with Sunday first, but if we get there, we could win it purely through wanting it more. 

 

Chelsea would probably present us with our best chance of winning the final though. 

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4 minutes ago, Hollyfox said:

Although this could well happen and they have an incredible side and bench, on our day we can beat anyone. 

 

Obviously we have to deal with Sunday first, but if we get there, we could win it purely through wanting it more. 

 

Chelsea would probably present us with our best chance of winning the final though. 

I do agree. Man City are beatable and I was being a bit OTT. They should beat Tottenham but PSG in the CL and Chelsea in the FA Cup will be challenging.

 

Like you I think if we were to play them in the final, we could give them a good go. With the amount of games and the short turnarounds there have been many strange results already.

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Last season a pretty poor Arsenal beat Man City and Chelsea to lift it. 

 

They rode their luck in both games but came out on top. 

 

It's all on the day, I suppose. 

 

Have to think back to Wimbledon, Wigan, Coventry (🤮) to see what can happen. 

 

I really hope that the winners on Sunday go on and win it, unless that knackers us up for European football 👍

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27 minutes ago, Hollyfox said:

Last season a pretty poor Arsenal beat Man City and Chelsea to lift it. 

 

They rode their luck in both games but came out on top. 

 

It's all on the day, I suppose. 

 

Have to think back to Wimbledon, Wigan, Coventry (🤮) to see what can happen. 

 

I really hope that the winners on Sunday go on and win it, unless that knackers us up for European football 👍

Right now I'd take the FA Cup win even if it risks top 4

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It's unlikely that we'll beat Man City but there's always a chance, I hate it when people just write it off. Barnes gets through in the first minute and Man City end up getting a red or giving away a penalty, it's a completely different game.

 

Anyway, there's the matter of the SF final, where I think we'll struggle, at least for periods, it's not gonna be an easy game.

 

PS. Everton vs. Spurs tomorrow, 100% a Spurs win and that'll be the end of Evertons top 4 hopes, would absolutely love a draw though.

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It's unlikely that we'll beat Man City but there's always a chance, I hate it when people just write it off. Barnes gets through in the first minute and Man City end up getting a red or giving away a penalty, it's a completely different game.

 

That's what happened in our league game, a couple of seasons back (kompany on Vards) and the ref bottled it. 

 

#stillbitter😡

 

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8 hours ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

While I was running earlier I was thinking about the whole European qualification scenario and it occured to me that we could finish 5th and actually not qualify for any European competition (I have a lot of time to think when running so apologies).

 

If Southampton win the FA Cup, Tottenham the League Cup and Arsenal the EL, then 5th would miss out on European football altogether. Imagine that! However, you will get some ridiculous odds if you put that treble on with the bookmakers today (in fact you could make it a quadruple with Leicester finishing outside of the Top 4).

 

I just checked what the odds of all four are and it came in just short of 500-1.

 

What if Chelsea won the CL and finish outside the Top 4 as well! Would 4th place then get no European football? I might be overthinking and getting carried away here...

You wasn't joking you did have alot of time to think normally on my runs all I could this is why the F*** did i start running lol

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45 minutes ago, FoxesWalk said:

Totally weirds me out how they refer to Leicester as "It" rather than "they" in that article. 

 

And there's some annoying mistakes in the stats that make me question everything else

 

Quote

Leicester managed to win just three of its remaining 14 matches in 2019-20, losing six and drawing five, good for just 22 points from the 42 on offer. 

That's 14 points, right? 

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12 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

It's unlikely that we'll beat Man City but there's always a chance, I hate it when people just write it off. Barnes gets through in the first minute and Man City end up getting a red or giving away a penalty, it's a completely different game.

 

Anyway, there's the matter of the SF final, where I think we'll struggle, at least for periods, it's not gonna be an easy game.

 

PS. Everton vs. Spurs tomorrow, 100% a Spurs win and that'll be the end of Evertons top 4 hopes, would absolutely love a draw though.

It was unlikely Wimbledon would beat Liverpool. There have been many unlikely results. Is beating Man City with 5 goals in their own back yard was, frankly, astonishing. It can be done. However, we have to get there. 

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20 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

I will have a £10 with you ;) no that not happening.

 

Chelsea winning CL changes little for us, 4th would still get CL even if Chelsea finished 5th 

Not sure you're right there.

 

If Chelsea won Champions League and finished 5th and Arsenal won the Europa League, then I'm pretty sure that 4th place would miss out on Champs League football.

 

Reason being that a maximum of 5 clubs from any country can be represented in Champs League, so top 3 in league plus champ league/ europa league winners in the above scenario.

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2 minutes ago, Mythyaar said:

Not sure you're right there.

 

If Chelsea won Champions League and finished 5th and Arsenal won the Europa League, then I'm pretty sure that 4th place would miss out on Champs League football.

 

Reason being that a maximum of 5 clubs from any country can be represented in Champs League, so top 3 in league plus champ league/ europa league winners in the above scenario.

That's correct.

 

I was only talking about Chelsea winning ot not winning the CL and that not changing anything in isolation.

 

The only issue is the as you point out is the doomsday scenario of an Chelsea and Arsenal both winning there respective competitions and Chelsea finishing outside the top 4.

 

All of which is very unlikely. 

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

I will have a £10 with you ;) no that not happening.

 

Chelsea winning CL changes little for us, 4th would still get CL even if Chelsea finished 5th 

why would he bet evens with u if he can get 500-1

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14 hours ago, FoxOnWheels said:

Stonehurst farm, lives in Quorn though dont he

Just round the corner from me, great place! 

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