Six Nations

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Why are Ireland tournament favourites? Does the form they were in during autumn – when they dismissed the challenge of South Africa and Australia - automatically mean they are value to win the tournament?

Well yes and no. The autumn internationals are a good sign of a team’s confidence and momentum – take England’s performance in 2002 when they beat New Zealand and Australia – before going on to win the World Cup the following year. As a nation there is no doubt that Ireland are playing well. But a team is only as good as the sum of its parts and the recent failures of Munster (who make up the majority of the Irish pack) and Leinster in the Heineken Cup against English sides indicate both that the Irish are not stand-out favourites nor are England going to be the walkovers they have been in their recent run of eight defeats in nine internationals. The Irish concede early and score late and it is these powers of recovery along with their winning momentum and key stats that lead us to recommend them to win the tournament at 2.74. However it’s going to be a close tournament and they could come unstuck against either France or England which is why we recommend taking the ‘no-winner’ on both the Grand Slam and Triple Crown at 1.93 and 3.92. The Triple Crown has been won every year since 2002 but we believe the closeness of the teams supports the trend being opposed.

But what of England? There is no doubt that Brian Ashton will bring a degree of pragmatism to the role and concentrate on getting England functioning again in the key areas of scrum and lineout. Whether it will be a total return to the traditional England way of strong forward play and limited back play is yet to be decided but the team look exciting on paper with the return of Jonny Wilkinson – his name on the team list alone saw the Ireland price drift - and the introduction at inside-centre of Andy Farrell. They will be a different proposition to 2006 but with a tendency to go missing in the final quarter of games, the two teams of real quality - Ireland and France - may catch them out.

Farrell’s position, centre, is just about the only area of the French team that hasn’t been consistently changed and coach Bernard Laporte still has no idea of the spine of his side just seven months prior to the World Cup in France. As ever the French look to have the talent to win the tournament by barely breaking stride. They concede just 15% of tries in the first 20mins and are strong finishers with 42% of their tries scored in the final quarter. But with an eye on the World Cup and the constant changing of their line-up, they may flatter to deceive and our first three in the tournament would be Ireland to win, with a resurgent England taking second and the French in third.

Despite welcoming back several of their 2005 Grand Slam winning side, Wales, who as coach Gareth Jenkins rightly points out play ‘the Welsh way’ are likely to come unstuck due to a lack of power up front and a lack of any other dimension to their game bar the counter-attacking that Jenkins is referring to. The Welsh way may prove beneficial for followers of first tryscorer markets and total match points: wingers have scored 43% of total tries scored at the Millennium stadium and Wales are consistently involved in high-scoring games.

Italy will not struggle up front as they have the best scrummage at the tournament and the firepower to upset any of the teams they will face. However they are still short of match winning confidence and any real threats in the backline - they concede 68% of all tries in the last 20mins of their games and the forwards have scored 59% of their 22 tries at home. While they are getting there, and they will improve on last season’s wooden spoon, I think they will fare no better than fifth.

Which leaves us with Scotland. A resurgent 2006 saw them surprise England and the French at Murrayfield but their key strengths on those days are indicative of the way that Frank Hadden has them playing. The team is based on defence – all well and good but for this tournament they are without two of their biggest performers in that area in Jason White and Nathan Hines and while Chris Paterson is unerringly accurate with the boot, rivaling Wilkinson with his success rate at penalties, it is the lack of game-breakers that may be their downfall. They are involved in low-scoring games due to their solid defence, but they are unable to break down their opponents, scoring just 15 tries in the first half of matches - 32% of their total tries. Take them to prop up the table and win the wooden spoon at 4.5 and to be the lowest scoring team at 2.24.

Good to Knows

* England are the only team to win back to back tournaments in the Six Nations

* Out of the seven seasons the Grand Slam has been won four times (from 2002-2005: France, England, France, Wales)

* The Triple Crown was not won in 2000 or 2001 but has been every year since: England: 2002, 2003; Ireland 2004, Wales 2005, Ireland 2006

* France and England have both won the Six Nations three times

* Home wins have always outnumbered away wins except in 2005 when 7 sides won at home and 8 away from home

* There have only ever been two rounds of fixtures when the away side has won all three games - in week 2 of 2005 (Wales, Ireland and France) and week 5 in 2006 (Scot, France and Ireland)

* There have only ever been three draws in the tournament and Wales have been involved in all three – 2001: v Scotland (28-28); 2003: v Ireland (25-25); 2006: v Italy (18-18)

* In 2006 England were the only team to win away (v Italy 16-31) before the final weekend of the tournament

* Not every defending champion has got off to a winning start in the next year’s tournament. 2002 champions France lost to England in the 2003 opener 25-17 and Wales (2005 champions) lost to England 47-13 last season