WC Qualifiers - Early impressions

[Guest Bilo]

England - An uninspiring start against a very poor Andorra side will have left many of us worryig about the far sterner test in Zagreb. We needn't have concerned ourselves as England put in their best performance since Munich. Not only did they beat a side who hadn't lost at home for 14 years, they won with such a swagger many would have been left wondering how on earth England ever lost to a side who were made to look less than average. In spite of Capello's reputation for defensive, win-at-any-cost football, England played with a real attacking flair that Croatia just couldn't handle.

Was it a one-off or is this the sign of things to come for England? After all, 7 of England's starting 11 played in the Champions League final in May, including the entire back four. There are players within the England side who would walk into any club or national side and the team may finally be adding up to the sum of its' parts. The Capello factor, which has seen seen him win everything at club level, could well apply to international football with as talented a squad as this.

So, a 100% record followed by a stroll to World Cup glory? Almost certainly not, Belarus and Ukraine will be difficult away trips and Croatia will be as hungry for revenge going to Wembley as England were in Zagreb. Ukraine in particular seem to be underrated. The Kazakhs gave Portugal a real game in the Euro 2008 qualifiers and England travel to the Central Asian state in June, when the effects of a long hard season and the Kazakh summer could conspire to make it a more difficult task than expected. We're also well aware than England, paradoxically, often struggle to beat teams they are expected to blow away in their sleep, as we saw against Macedonia in the Euros. However, in spite of this, England should qualify without too much drama. Ukraine may be a tough proposition in Kiev but defeats to France, Italy and Scotland in the Euro qualifiers suggest that they suffer from travel sickness. Belarus can frustrate the big teams on their day, as Ukraine laboured 1-0 win showed. They are also capable of real shockers as a 1-0 defeat at home to Luxembourg showed in the Euro qualifiers. The extent to which Slaven Bilic's Croatia were outclassed and outwitted suggests the return of Eduardo won't make the necessary difference at Wembley, however much they'll want revenge. Kazakhstan aren't ranked 120th in the world because they're world-beaters (though don't expect a massacre home or away) and Andorra are likely to be even more woeful away from home.

PREDICTION: 1ST (26 POINTS)

Croatia- A routine enough 3-0 win over the Kazakhs at the Maksimir looked to have been the perfect preparation for England's visit, a team they had beaten comfortably twice in the Euro qualifiers. As it turned out, that game was a disaster for Slaven Bilic and his team as they were completely outplayed, outclassed and outwitted by a rejuvenated England side. A team touted by many outside England as hot favourites to win the group now look to have their work cut out to qualify. The last game they would have fancied after that 4-1 defeat to England would have been Ukraine away. That however is the situation that faces them and defeat would leave them 6 points behind Ukraine and, in all probability, England going into the winter break. A positive result in Kiev however, would put Croatia right back on track and probably leave them favourites for at least a runner-up spot in the group. In the play-offs, Croatia would have a strong chance of qualification against most in Europe. The return of Eduardo, their top scorer in the Euro qualifiers, will be a huge boost after the winter break. Ukraine travel poorly so the hostile atmosphere at the Maksimir could be like a twelfth man for Croatia. The seeming re-emergence of England as a force is likely to prevent a group-topping finish but they should have enough to qualify, barring any more disasters.

PREDICTION: 2ND (22 POINTS)

Ukraine- Two games, two wins. Perfection? The laboured nature of their victory over a poor Belarus side at home didn't bode well and while the 3-1 win at Kazakhstan was an improvement, improvements will be needed against the 'big two' in the group. Their next game will be key. Croatia are coming into the game on the back of a morale-sapping defeat to England, with huge pressure to avoid a second successive defeat and the 6 point deficit that would follow. A partisan crowd at the Olympic Stadium won't harm Ukraine's chances against Croatia or anybody in the group for that matter. They will want to win this game not only to deal a huge blow to Croatia's hopes, but to keep the pressure on England ahead of their visit to Wembley in April. The momentum will surely lie with Ukraine, given the likely confidence levels of the two teams. However, Ukraine finished a distant fourth to France, Italy and Scotland in their Euro 2008 qualifying group for a reason. Their awful away record. Defeats to France, Scotland, Italy and Lithuania and a draw with Georgia suggests a team that doesn't travel well. This hardly bodes well for their visits to an ominous looking England and a Croatia side who still have a superb home record in spite of their defeat to England last week. They'll give anybody a game on their own patch, but it could be their away form that costs them a place in South Africa.

PREDICTION: 3RD (20 POINTS)